Buster Olney musing about Billy Hamilton‘s upcoming rookie year:

… given his incredible prowess on the bases, it may not be necessary for Hamilton to produce within the standard models for leadoff hitters. If Hamilton has a .300 on-base percentage, for example — and that may be what the Reds could reasonably expect in Hamilton’s first year in the big leagues — he could still score a whole lot of runs because his singles and walks tend to lead to him standing on second or third base shortly thereafter.

A whole lot of runs, with a .300 OBP — really? The Reds averaged 4.3 R/G last year, and they’ll be lucky to match that after losing their second-best hitter, Shin-Soo Choo. Is there a precedent for what Buster suggests?

Statistically, a player’s runs are determined more by the strength of a lineup and his own ability to reach base and hit for power, than by his baserunning. In the last 20 years, there were 64 seasons of 50+ steals, but none of those cracked the top 25 runs totals during that span. Last year’s top 10 in runs averaged 11 SB, but 28 HRs and a .394 OBP, while the seven 40-steal qualifiers averaged 82 runs.

Under what conditions can a player score lots of runs with a .300 on-base percentage? Since 1893, three players have scored 100+ runs with a .300 OBP or lower. All were in potent lineups, and two had good power themselves:

• 108 runs, Hughie Critz (.292 OBP) — The 1930 Giants scored 6.2 runs per game. Their leadoff spot (mainly Critz) scored 111 runs; their next four spots averaged a .361 BA and 134 runs.
• 107 runs, Tony Armas (.300 OBP) — The 1984 Red Sox averaged 5.0 R/G. Armas hit 43 HRs, and was still just 3rd on the club in runs.
• 100 runs, Jimmy Rollins (.296 OBP) — The 2009 Phillies scored 5.1 R/G. Rollins had 21 HRs and 69 extra-base hits, along with 31 steals, and still ranked just 4th on the team in runs; their 2nd through 5th spots all scored more than Rollins’s leadoff spot.

Raising the OBP ceiling to .310 brings in six more with 100 runs. All packed their own punch or had powerful friends:

• 108, Neifi Perez (.307 OBP) — The 1999 Rockies scored 5.6 R/G, and averaged 38 HRs from their 3rd through 6th spots in the order. Perez himself hit 12 HRs and 11 triples.
• 105, Juan Samuel (.305 OBP) — Samuel joined Ty Cobb in the two-member 70-SB/70-XBH club, and was the 2nd player ever with 700+ ABs in a season. The ’84 Phillies scored a modest 4.4 R/G.
• 103, Devon White (.306) — The ’87 Angels scored 4.8 R/G. White had 24 HRs, 62 XBH and 32 steals.
• 102, Alfonso Soriano (.309 OBP) — 36 HRs, 81 XBH, 30 SB, and his 2005 Rangers scored 5.3 R/G; Sori was 3rd on the team in runs.
• 102, Bret Boone (.310 OBP) — 20 HRs, 59 XBH, and his ’99 Braves averaged 5.2 R/G.
• 101, Juan Samuel (.303 OBP) — 19 HRs, 63 XBH, 53 SB; ’85 Phils scored a low 4.1 R/G.

Of these nine, only Samuel was not in a high-octane offense, and he averaged 67 XBH in those two years.

What about the most prolific base thieves who also had low on-base rates? There have been 16 modern seasons with 60+ SB and OBP of .320 or lower. Their combined average: 75 steals, .308 OBP, 657 PAs, and 85 runs. Two reached 100 runs. The full list:

• Vince Coleman (4 years):
  110 SB, .320 OBP … 107 runs (and NL’s top offense at 4.6 R/G)
  107 SB, .301 OBP … 94 runs
  81 SB, .313 OBP … 77 runs
  65 SB, .316 OBP … 94 runs
• Omar Moreno (2):
  96 SB, .306 OBP, MLB-high 745 PAs … 87 runs
  60 SB, .292 OBP, 706 PAs … 82 runs
  (The only time Omar scored more than 95 runs was 1979, when he had a .333 OBP and the Bucs led the NL at 4.8 R/G.)
• Marquis Grissom: 76 SB, .310 OBP … 73 runs
• Lou Brock: 74 SB, .320 OBP, 15 HRs, 12 triples … 94 runs
• Juan Samuel: 72 SB, .307 OBP … 105 runs (and 70 XBH)
• Scott Podsednik: 70 SB, .313 OBP … 85 runs
• Frank Taveras: 70 SB, .306 OBP … 76 runs
• Willy Taveras: 68 SB, .308 OBP … 64 runs
• Eric Yelding: 64 SB, .305 OBP … 69 runs
• Rodney Scott: 63 SB, .307 OBP … 84 runs
• Bert Campaneris: 62 SB, .302 OBP … 71 runs
• Jose Reyes: 60 SB, .300 OBP … 99 runs (and 17 triples)

From the leadoff spot in particular, 88 player-seasons since 1916 had at least 500 PAs in that role and an OBP under .315. None of them scored more than 98 runs leading off, and just three had 95 runs. The 23 with 40+ steals averaged a .305 OBP, 62 SB and 88 runs per 700 PAs.

Hamilton showed us last fall what excitement he can bring to a game. No one will be shocked if he’s the first since Rickey Henderson to swipe 80 bags. But he’s shown little power in the minors: per 700 PAs, he’s averaged 24 doubles, 12 triples and 4 HRs, with 140 strikeouts.

It would be hard for anyone to top Vince Coleman at using his legs to turn times on base into runs. In his three low-OBP years not backed by a top offense, Vince twice led the majors in the rate of scoring once on base. In those three years, he averaged (per 700 PAs) 90 steals and an 83% safe rate, a .310 OBP, and 94 runs. So that seems like the upper limit of Hamilton’s ability to score in spite of a low OBP.

The 2013 Reds had good OBP from just two spots in their lineup, as Choo and Votto ranked 1-2 in the league individually. They were 14th in OBP from the #2 spot (and 14th in OPS), 10th in OBP from #4 (11th OPS), 12th in OBP from #5 (7th OPS). They were 10th in OPS from the #6 spot, and 11th at #7-8. No surprise, then, that while Choo and Votto combined for 101 runs per 700 PAs, the rest of the team averaged 71 runs per 700 PAs.

Unless the Reds improve the rest of their lineup, the idea of Hamilton stealing enough bases to score “a whole lot of runs” despite a .300 OBP seems like pure fantasy. He’ll have to get on base at a decent rate to be an effective leadoff man.

Your thoughts?