Miggy at mid-career

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This past season, Miguel Cabrera turned 30 and passed the 350 home run and 1200 RBI milestones, while maintaining a career OPS+ above 150. Only four other players have done the same.

	Player	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Jimmie Foxx	429	1520	169	79.7	1925	1938	17-30	1710	7293	6116	1355	2049	346	102	1104	935	.335	.437	.635	1.073
2	Albert Pujols	408	1230	172	81.0	2001	2010	21-30	1558	6782	5733	1186	1900	426	15	914	646	.331	.426	.624	1.050
3	Mel Ott	369	1386	158	80.2	1926	1939	17-30	1864	7808	6544	1332	2061	359	63	1135	566	.315	.419	.558	.977
4	Hank Aaron	366	1216	157	80.0	1954	1964	20-30	1656	7216	6510	1180	2085	351	79	603	655	.320	.376	.567	.943
5	Miguel Cabrera	365	1260	154	54.7	2003	2013	20-30	1660	7126	6218	1064	1995	412	14	799	1201	.321	.399	.568	.967

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/2/2013.

After the jump, more on Cabrera and what might lie ahead for him.

If you’re wondering about the age 30 cutoff. only one other player (Frank Robinson) gets added if the criteria are extended to age 31. So, it is indeed an exclusive group.

	Player	HR	RBI	OPS+	WAR	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Jimmie Foxx	464	1625	170	86.5	1925	1939	17-31	1834	7858	6583	1485	2217	377	112	1193	1007	.337	.439	.640	1.079
2	Albert Pujols	445	1329	170	86.4	2001	2011	21-31	1705	7433	6312	1291	2073	455	15	975	704	.328	.420	.617	1.037
3	Frank Robinson	403	1225	156	76.9	1956	1967	20-31	1786	7651	6582	1248	2004	375	59	856	963	.304	.392	.563	.955
4	Hank Aaron	398	1305	158	87.8	1954	1965	20-31	1806	7855	7080	1289	2266	391	80	663	736	.320	.376	.567	.943
5	Mel Ott	388	1465	157	85.4	1926	1940	17-31	2015	8455	7080	1421	2216	386	66	1235	616	.313	.418	.551	.969
6	Miguel Cabrera	365	1260	154	54.7	2003	2013	20-30	1660	7126	6218	1064	1995	412	14	799	1201	.321	.399	.568	.967

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/3/2013.

With Foxx and Ott flaming out relatively early, only Aaron turned in a second half of his career that really was close to half of his career (of 9 retired players to reach 300 home runs before their age 30 season, only Aaron also reached 300 home runs afterwards). That said, all of Cabrera’s predecessors in our study group turned in somewhat similar performances over their next 3 seasons.

Rk	Player	HR	OPS+	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Hank Aaron	115	157	1965	1967	31-33	463	1996	1773	339	533	100	5	325	199	274	62	13	.301	.368	.557	.925
2	Jimmie Foxx	90	159	1939	1941	31-33	403	1765	1469	323	467	88	22	329	283	262	10	15	.318	.429	.592	1.020
3	Albert Pujols	84	137	2011	2013	31-33	400	1764	1577	239	447	98	0	268	153	189	18	3	.283	.348	.505	.853
4	Mel Ott	76	150	1940	1942	31-33	451	1945	1610	296	467	77	3	262	309	179	17		.290	.408	.483	.891

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/2/2013.

It’s what happened after age 33 that separates Aaron from this group. Here are their performances, age 34-37.

Rk	Player	HR	OPS+	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Hank Aaron	158	168	1968	1971	34-37	596	2486	2164	382	654	111	11	419	296	230	47	16	.302	.385	.583	.968
2	Mel Ott	66	144	1943	1946	34-37	411	1591	1298	231	348	52	6	212	264	151	10		.268	.397	.470	.867
3	Jimmie Foxx	15	96	1942	1945	34-37	204	618	549	73	130	24	1	73	65	114	1	0	.237	.320	.366	.686

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/2/2013.

Both Cabrera and Pujols have started to show some infirmities. And, it’s hard not to suppose that the bulk both are carrying has something to do with that. Just for comparison, here is what the other 3 players in this group looked like around the same age.

Those are images of Aaron and Foxx on cards published in their age 30 seasons (or identified with that season), and for Ott in his age 32 season. The left-to-right ordering of the photos also appears to be the players’ order in waist size. Aaron, in particular, looks like there’s hardly an ounce of fat on him (though it’s hard to be sure with the baggy uniforms, Ott’s physique was probably not so sleek as depicted by the illustrator, as evidenced by this photo of Ott flanked by teammates in spring training of Ott’s age 30 season).

Bill James’ career projection tool knows numbers (but not BMI). Here are its career home run projections after age 30 and age 33 seasons.

Rk	Player	Age 30	Age 33	Actual
1	Jimmie Foxx	692	642	534
2	Albert Pujols	665	603
3	Mel Ott	553	567	512
4	Hank Aaron	571	658	755
5	Miguel Cabrera	615

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/2/2013.

Finally, the same projections for other members of the 600 HR club.

Rk	Player	Age 30	Age 33	Actual
1	Barry Bonds	511	585	763
2	Babe Ruth	517	716	714
3	Willie Mays	531	652	660
4	Alex Rodriguez	701	743	684
5	Ken Griffey	710	538	630
6	Jim Thome	536	627	612
7	Sammy Sosa	693	742	609

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/2/2013.

Really close with the age 33 projections for the Babe, Willie and Jim Thome. A-Rod’s total in the Actual column is his career projection today (just 30 more than his current career total).

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Lawrence Azrin

10 years ago

Cabrera cetainly LOOKS like a future certain HOFer, if not an all-time great, at age 30. Then again, so did Vladimir Geurrero after his first 11 years. If you compare Games and WAR through their first 11 full years, they’re fairly close: Guerrero: 1603 G, 49.5 WAR Cabrera: 1660 G, 54.6 WAR Does Geurrero look like a likely HOFer now? Hard to say – just a cautionary tale about annointing players all-time greats in mid-career. I’m being somewhat disengenious here, as I don’t _really_ believe they are about equal; Cabrera has a peak that Guerrero doesn’t equal, at least hitting-wise.… Read more »

Author

Doug

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Disingenuous or not, the WAR comparison is relevant. There’s essentially no difference in WAR through age 30 for Foxx, Ott, Aaron and Pujols – you could throw a small blanket over the four of them. But, Cabrera is not even in the same zip code.

Through age 30, Cabrera ranks only 35th in WAR among post-1901 players. Even if you were to “overlook” his -12.2 dWAR and just compared his oWAR (62.4) to the other players’ total WAR, that would only move him up to 26th spot, just behind Al Kaline and Yaz.

Editor

birtelcom

10 years ago

Reply to Doug

But if instead of oWAR, which has a position adjustment included, you use Rbat, which is WAR’s purely hitting component, Miggy does look like a true all-time great through age 30. He is 14th all-time in Rbat through age 30, just behind Aaron and A-Rod, and just ahead of Frank Robinson, Tris Speaker, Eddie Mathews and Willie Mays. There are no guarantees he can keep it going, but it is not unfair to treat him as one of the true all-time greats in this age cohort if you are talking purely hitting. His career hitting numbers to date are extremely… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

10 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

@13/birtelcom,

I think that there’s more to this – basically, how do we define “Greatest Hitters Ever”?

Longevity should count for something – when I looked at the lists I got googling “best MLB right-handed hitters ever”, most of the hitters had long careers, with the exception of guys with short careers but great career OPS+, like Greenberg, McGwire, Dimaggio.

No one’s mentioned it, but don’t you think that Cabrera’s excess poundage is going to catch up with him eventually?

Editor

birtelcom

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

If Cabrera announced tomorrow that he was retiring (to start a shopping mall Santa franchise?)he’d fall into a small group of guys that were great, great hitters but that for one reason or another had limited career PAs. His career hitting numbers today are comparable to the full careers of guys like Johnny Mize and Dick Allen. I’m not making any claims one way or the other about what the rest of Miggy’s career will look like, only that where he is today, and given his age, he has the space to end up with a career of one of… Read more »

Editor

birtelcom

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Lawrence Azrin

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

@3/Doug, As Big Bird might say ‘One of these things is not like the other’. Well, there it is, right on your charts on top – Foxx/ Pujols/ Frank Robinson/ Ott/ Aaron are clearly a cut or two above Cabrera through age 30. Cabrera is certainly great, but they were greater. This is interesting, because before his hip troubles last year, many writers were ready to place Cabrera very high amongst the pantheon of all-time great hitters. Several even proclaimed him to be to be one of the Top Ten hitters of all time. I think this is rather premature.… Read more »

Author

Doug

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Thanks, Lawrence.

Nice list. Should be a good discussion starter.

Richard Chester

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Talking about one thing not being like the others, Big Jawn Mize is the thing here. He batted left-handed.

Lawrence Azrin

10 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

@10/RC,

Serves me right for not checking on B-R, see #11. Everybody below Mize moves up a notch! (Put Dimaggio in the Top-Dozen).

Lawrence Azrin

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

@9/Doug,

Thanks. It’s not meant to be totally inclusive; not based on any advanced stats*. Mize is a lefty, OOPS.

For instance, I included Simmons, Kaline and Clemente, even though they are not in the Top-100 in career OPS+. So where would you rank you Cebrera?

* I admit that I Googled “best MLB right-handed hitters ever” to scan several of those lists.

Artie Z.

10 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Are you sure you didn’t scan the Rbat list? Going back to 1890 (to capture all of Wagner’s and Lajoie’s careers) there are only 28 right-handed batters with 400+ career Rbat. Al Simmons (388), Ralph Kiner (369), and Roberto Clemente (373) don’t make the list but they are close. You have 25 players, minus Mize and those 3, so 21 of those players have over 400 Rbat. Throw in Cabrera and there are 22 of the 28 players, and the 1890 cutoff gets us Ed Delahanty (who wouldn’t have been on your list) so that’s 23 of 28 players. Who… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

10 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

@15/Artie Z, I looked at OPS+ and several lists that I googled, but not Rbat. My list is partly stat-based, but I just wished to put down in one place all the outstanding right-handed hitters. A lot of of this is based on peak, and somewhat subjective. From your additions, I’d also include: – Gary Sheffield – Edgar Martinez – Vlad Guerrero …But not Rickey Henderson or Dave Winfield, because I think that their Rbat totals are due more to their longevity than their hitting greatness. Why Clemente and not Winfield, even though they have the same OPS+ of 130?… Read more »

Editor

birtelcom

10 years ago

For the period 2011-2013, the Tigers have both the top WAR everyday player (Cabrera just ahead of Cano, 22.1 to 21.5) and the top WAR pitcher (Verlander just barely ahead of Kershaw, 20.8 to 20.6). Over that three-year period, Detroit has the fourth-best regular season winning percentage:
1. Rangers 280-207 (.575)
2. Braves 279-207 (.574)
3. Yankees 277-209 (.570)
4. Tigers 276-210 (.568)
5. Cardinals 275-211 (.566)

Author

Doug

10 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Fourth-best, but only four games back of the leader. What a tight grouping!

Editor

birtelcom

10 years ago

Miggy is one of nine players with 500 or more career games played at both first base and third base, but the only one to do that by age 30 (he reached 500/500 about 8 months before his 30th birthday). The eight other 500/500 guys at first and third: Killebrew, Rose, Torre, Dick Allen, Tony Perez, Darrell Evans, Enos Cabell and Dave Magadan (Magadan being one of my all-time personal favorite players for some reason). Seven of these eight guys, all but Magadan, were active in the majors during the 1972 season, and the 1973 season, and the 1974 season… Read more »

Richard Chester

10 years ago

Don’t know where to put this so I’ll do it here if you don’t mind Doug. With the recent passing of Mike Palagyi, Bobby Doerr and Art Kenney are the only 2 still living players who played in the 1930s. Palagyi played in one ML game on 8-18-39. Doerr also was in that game and it had currently been the furthest back in time that 2 still living players had faced each other. I also saw that Lou Brissie also just passed away. He made it to the ML despite playing with a rebuilt leg due to a serious WWII… Read more »

Author

Doug

10 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Time marches on. Looks like our new earliest game with two living players is July 2, 1940 with Athletics’ pitcher Carl Miles (making his second and final career appearance) facing Bobby Doerr and the Red Sox in a 15-9 Boston win. Next would be Fred Caligiuri and Chuck Stevens, who both appeared in the Sep 14-16, 1941 Browns/Athletics series, though not in the same game (Caligiuri and Doerr also appeared in different games of the season-ending Athletics/Red Sox series). By 1942, there are several still-living players who were active in the AL. But, looks like the earliest NL game with… Read more »

Richard Chester

10 years ago

Reply to Doug

Doerr and George Yankowski appeared in the same game on 8-22-42.

JasonZ

10 years ago

I know this is not the place, but anybody who
thought the Yankees would show financial restraint, wrong!

This reeks of Dave Collins.

RE Miggy…

I agree with Lawrence.

I think his weight is the big challenge.

I had Marlins season tickets in 04, his first full season.

He has always been big.

jeff hill

10 years ago

Can anyone tell me what Piazza’s numbers could’ve been if he had played at first base instead of Catcher? Estimates obviously…

Artie Z.

10 years ago

Reply to jeff hill

I don’t think they would have been very good at all, because he was a HORRIBLE first baseman. As a Mets fan I remember watching Piazza the year they tried to convert him into a first baseman and he was just awful (which is probably why the Mets scrapped the idea and moved him back to catcher the next year). My belief is that first base is a more difficult position to play than most people think it is and it takes some skill (it’s a different type of footwork than catcher), and while Piazza was not a great defensive… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

10 years ago

On a tangent … I’ve been resisting this assertion, but the time seems ripe: Cabrera has reached the point where only scandal could keep him from the Hall of Fame. Right now, Miggy is a HOF traditionalist’s dream. They love high-average sluggers, they love awards and league leaders, they love reputation and stature. They don’t care so much about defense, surrounding context, or positional standards. Take batting average alone. Through age 30, Cabrera has a .321 BA in over 7,000 PAs. Twenty-one retired players had, by age 30, at least 6,000 PAs and a BA of at least .310. All… Read more »

Darien

10 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I think the triple crown locked down Miggy’s case for the Hall, myself. Like you, I don’t necessarily *agree* with this thinking, but my suspicion is that the voters will refuse to pass up the first guy in 45 years to do it.

Russell

10 years ago

Thanks for the vote of confidence about Miggy’s HOF chances, John. How many WS titles do you think he will win, having one only once with the Marlins, assuming he continues with the Tigers and perhaps another contending team? I know team achievements shouldn’t factor into the HOF vote but it probably does. How many HOF members won only 1 WS title or none? Also, it’s probably been mentioned before, but how come Babe Ruth only has 1 MVP? He should have about 10. And the only other times he got votes he finished 4th or 5th and still posted… Read more »

David Horwich

10 years ago

Reply to Russell

In the version of the MVP award that existed in the AL from 1922-28, prior award winners were ineligible, so after winning it in 1923 Ruth was ineligible for the next several years.

oneblankspace

10 years ago

Reply to Russell

Look at all the Chicago players for HOF without WS — Aparicio, Appling, Banks, Dawson, Fisk, N.Fox, F.Jenkins, Sandberg, Santo, B.Williams, H.Wilson. If you want to throw in some BoSox, you can add Cronin, Rice, T.Williams, Yaz to the list.

The HOF has a list of 129 players who won a world championship at
http://baseballhall.org/sites/default/files/all/hofers_players_who_have_won_world_series2.pdf
out of 208 players total

(If the link breaks, try here: http://goo.gl/yyRlHR )