The Rundown: Clouds are Brewing in Philadelphia

With our first busy week of the offseason in the books, the 2013-14 Major League Baseball spending spree is on. We’ve seen Jhonny Peralta and Brian McCann reel in buku bucks by signing long-term deals with franchises that historically view themselves as contenders. Josh Johnson and Dan Haren have managed to nab some pretty pennies from NL West ball clubs, the Phillies made some interesting moves, and of course who could forget the monumental Prince FielderIan Kinsler swap. Why don’t we take a quick swing through some of last week’s newsworthy notes:

It’s looking a little clouding in Philadelphia

Much like Charlie Kelly in everyone’s favorite Philadelphia-based television show, Ruben Amaro Jr. envisions himself as a bit of a wild card. After watching his team stumble to 81-81 in 2012 thanks to an utterly disastrous offense, Amaro Jr. decided to spend a fortune on Cole Hamels, a pitcher, while picking up Delmon Young and Michael Young, who can loosely be described as “ballplayers” at this point in their careers. That plan went south on Amaro Jr. about as fast as you might expect and the proud franchise finished below .500 for the first time since 2002. Well, maybe Amaro Jr. feels that 2013 just wasn’t the Phillies’ year, because after the signings of Marlon Byrd and Carlos Ruiz, he seems to have every intention of hitting the replay button.

Look, it’s not that Byrd isn’t a nice player because he is. Same goes for Ruiz. Former pitchers who have played with Chooch have repeatedly praised his pitch selection and his ability to work with a staff. He’s generally seen as a good clubhouse guy and he knows how to work the count with a bat in his hands. But to pay Ruiz and Byrd $42 million guaranteed over the next couple seasons (never mind the ridiculous vesting option on Byrd) is sheer lunacy.

Ruiz subsides on a steady diet of singles, providing very little pop at the plate, and he’s an easy target for fast base runners to pick on. Byrd is one year removed from a .210/.243/.245 slash line and he’s basically the textbook definition of a league average outfielder. Those two so35-and-ups will now join 35-year-old Jimmy Rollins, 35-year-old Chase Utley, and a 34-year-old glorified platoon hitter in Ryan Howard for the foreseeable future. This is a great team if the calendar says 2009. Unfortunately it doesn’t.

If It’s Always Sunny has taught us anything it’s that having a wild card on board usually ends up in fiery destruction. That’s where Ruben Amaro Jr. and the Phillies are headed and he’s the one responsible. After all, somebody had to cut the breaks.

Brian McCann meet the Yankees, Yankees meet a real, live Major League catcher

After spending the better part of last season with Chris StewartAustin Romine, and the corpse of Francisco Cervelli behind the dish, Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman finally decided that he’d seen enough. That unsightly trio managed to hit an appalling .213/.289/.298 while compiling just 26 extra-base hits. McCann, who played in just 102 games a year ago, accumulated 33 extra-base hits himself (20 of those were homers) and now he gets to take aim at the short porch in Yankee Stadium, which should do wonders for his power numbers.

Brian Cashman was also able to work for a surprisingly team-friendly contract as well. In fact, the contract stacks up incredibly well when compared to contemporary Yadier Molina, who is still owed a guaranteed $73 million over the next 5 seasons, and who is, at this point, considered a steal. McCann, who will be paid $85 million over the next 5 years, has actually played Molina to a draw over the past decade posting an insignificant 1 win above replacement more than the Cardinals’ All-Star since 2005, when he made his Major League debut.

To be fair, McCann’s had a little more of an issue staying on the field, but that may actually work as a benefit going forward. Molina’s got about 1000 innings of extra wear and tear on his knees, which could make the new Yankee the more valuable of the two players going forward. McCann, like Molina, also has an excellent reputation as a pitch framer and that’s a skill that has been proven to age well which should make this deal a big win for Cashman and the Yankees by the time 2018 ends.

Cardinal moves

The St. Louis Cardinals are currently the envy of the baseball world. They’ve been able to accumulate more talented, hard-throwing starters on one roster than most franchises will have in a decade and they’re able to use their voodoo to turn spare parts into All-Stars (see: Craig, Allen and Carpenter, Matt).

But the one thing that St. Louis hasn’t been able to quite figure out the past few seasons is shortstop. Over the past 3 seasons only the Minnesota Twins have generated less value at the position than the birds on the bat. St. Louis has run through an unappealing gambit of options that includes Pete KozmaDaniel DescalsoRafael Furcal, and Ryan Theriot, among others. That kind of incompetence is how you end up signing Jhonny Peralta to a deal that’s worth an estimated $50+ million over 4 years.

The contract, without a shadow of a doubt, should scare anyone looking at it. Peralta hasn’t exactly been a model of consistency over the past few seasons and his recent PED related suspension should raise some eyebrows as well. But as far as improving the product on the field in 2014, it’s pretty easy to say that goal was accomplished. Peralta’s career OPS is 100 points higher than anything the Cardinals have put on the field in the last 3 seasons and according to Fangraphs, he’s doubled as one of the 2-3 best defenders at his position in the league.

Peralta’s presence, coupled with Peter Bourjos joining the outfield and David Freese leaving 3rd, should give St. Louis a better set of defenders next year as well. New 3rd baseman Matt Carpenter will now be able to move from 2nd base back to his natural position at the hot corner where he should stand out as a solid improvement even if he’s just average. According to Fangraphs out of the 75 players who spent time at 3rd in 2013, Freese ranked 73rd in defensive value and his stone glove was the frequent cause of long innings. The Cardinals should be much better off with their new left side of the infield and that’s a scary thought for the rest of the National League.

Padres Pick-up Pitching

On Wednesday the San Diego Padres and Josh Johnson finalized a one year deal that’s good for $8 million dollars. This is a move that has the potential to be one of the absolute steals of the offseason next year for a variety of reasons.

1. Price – San Diego managed to add a potential top of the rotation starter at an extremely reasonable price. If Johnson throws up a vintage 2010-type season the Padres will feel like they just robbed Fort Knox.

2. Strikeouts – The Padres averaged 7.24 K’s per 9 a year ago, which tied Baltimore for 25th best in baseball. Even at his worst a year ago, Johnson is still better than most. He managed a little over a strikeout per inning pitched thanks to a couple of nasty breaking balls. If he can improve the location on his fastball, a bounce back season is well within reach.

3. Petco Park – A year ago Johnson made a vast majority of his starts in some of the most hitter-friendly parks in the Majors. His home park, the Rogers Centre, ranked among the top 5 best fields for run scoring and many of his starts on the road were in places like Boston and Baltimore. Three of the five ballparks in the NL West are extremely kind toward pitchers and that includes Petco, the toughest place in baseball to score runs. That alone should knock a run off of Johnson’s ERA.

San Diego is starting to check off all of the boxes of a dark horse contender. Between Andrew Cashner and Johnson they have a pair of hard-throwing hurlers who could easily front a playoff caliber rotation. The rest of the lineup has plenty of young players who still have plenty of room to improve and if their front office can go out and pick up another bat or two, the Padres could sneak their way to 90 wins next year.

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birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago

I’m not sure why the low scoring rates at Petco Park and the NL West adds value to the acquisition of Josh Johnson because it is likely to reduce is ERA. Such ERA reduction effect would presumably be true for any pitcher, so it doesn’t make the acquisition of Johnson in particular any more valuable or desirable. Similarly, the lower scoring level at Petco and the NL West mean offenses score fewer runs there, such that the lower ERAs are merely keeping pace with what’s needed to win there and are not necessarily more valuable than higher ERAs elsewhere. On… Read more »

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I think San Diego is taking a reasonable gamble that, at age 30,Johnson can approach the form that made him a 142 ERA+ pitcher through age 27. Of course, Toronto made that same bet last year and lost. The difference, though, is that Johnson probably can pitch more comfortably in Petco knowing that, unlike Rogers Centre, the ballpark can contain many of his mistakes. Johnson’s 2013 was off-the-charts bad with 11.6 H/9 and 1.7 HR/9. But, it was only 81 IP. If you look at his numbers the past two seasons, the power and control are still there – the… Read more »

mosc
mosc
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Johnson’s numbers reflect his velocity. If he could still hit 96 regularly, then he’d still dominate.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  mosc

That could be it.

But, surprising his SO haven’t fallen off in consequence.

GrandyMan
GrandyMan
11 years ago

It’s going to a long summer…er, next five summers here in Philadelphia.

Go Eagles. Go home, Ruben.

Brendan Bingham
Brendan Bingham
11 years ago

Of the many MLB father-son duos, is there another in which the two were as equally matched as the Amaros?
Ruben, Sr.: .234/.309/.292; 71 OPS+; -7.0 WAA in 940 games.
Ruben, Jr.: .235/.310/.353; 80 OPS+; -2.8 WAA in 485 games.

bells
bells
11 years ago

Wow, I just looked up some info on the number of father-son duos in MLB, and it’s staggering! I would have guessed there would be like 50, not like 200. I know MLB has been around for a long time, but I would venture to guess that other sports have fewer of these combos, despite larger rosters. Or perhaps I’m way wrong on that too.

GrandyMan
GrandyMan
11 years ago
Reply to  bells

I was just thinking that the other day while watching an NFL game. I rarely hear about father-son NFL duos, while it’s fairly commonplace in baseball. I think it has something to do with the fact that most baseball players actually enjoy playing the game and share it with their sons, while many football players ultimately regret it, and encourage their kids to try a different line of work.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

..Gus Bell:.281/.330/.445/.775; 103 OPS+, 206 HR, 66 3B
Buddy Bell:.279/.341/.406/.747; 109 OPS+, 201 HR, 56 3B

Brendan Bingham
Brendan Bingham
11 years ago

Nice! And all the more impressive that it’s a pair of substantially above average players.

mosc
mosc
11 years ago

I don’t know where all the Peralta love is coming from. We didn’t see enough dropoff from Melky Cabrera last year to learn our lesson? Peralta will be lucky to break 100 OPS+ for the cardinals over the next 4 years. His career is only 101 and that’s WITH a damn steroids conviction coming in the middle of his best year. He’s on the wrong side of a roid letdown, the wrong side of 30, and the long side of a contract for a guy who may well be out of the league by then. I don’t understand the defensive… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  mosc

mosc, your assessment of Peralta might be right, for all I know. But Detroit’s not making a Q.O. doesn’t mean they share your view. It just means they preferred to go forward with the inexpensive Iglesias. Had Peralta not been suspended, or had they not acquired a solid replacement, I think they would have made a Q.O. to Jhonny. I don’t know if I “love” the signing of Peralta by STL, but it looks like a solid move. He seems very likely to do significantly better than what they had at SS; he didn’t cost them a draft pick (which… Read more »

fireworks
fireworks
11 years ago

One note about Cervelli–he played well before being injured, though I will admit he’s a backup catcher. He’s just not as clearly a no bat catcher as Stewart, perhaps because he still runs pretty well. Also, he has “fire”–he hit a key homer in 2009 in Atlanta that “fired up” the team. They then went 65-29 the rest of the way or something. If you believe in that. Basically what I’m trying to say is that I wouldn’t have minded a healthy, non suspended Cervelli last year. As for Peralta, it’s definitely a good move even if it angers people… Read more »