Derek Jeter has long had the nickname Captain Clutch, a moniker usually attributed to his post-season performance. Indeed, that post-season career reads pretty much like a a full season stat line. A very good stat line.
Year | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | TB | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16 Yrs (33 Series) | 158 | 734 | 650 | 111 | 200 | 32 | 5 | 20 | 61 | 18 | 5 | 66 | 135 | .308 | .374 | .465 | .838 | 302 |
But, for regular season play, who are the top clutch performers in today’s game? I’ll tell you after the jump.
In their outstanding statistical analysis in “The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball”, Tom Tango et al demonstrated that, for most players, there is no such thing as clutch hitting. Over a career (and usually over much shorter periods), most players will perform, relative to other players, about as well in clutch situations as in any other. But, can there be exceptions?
To find out which players might be exceptions to the general rule, I looked at performance in “late and close” situations using P-I’s Split Finder (“late & close” means 7th inning or later, ahead by one run, tied, or with the tying run at least on deck). For players with 400 PA, these are the leaders for 2013 in OPS difference in late and close situations.
Rk | Player | Split | G | OPStot | Diff | PA | PAtot | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | tOPS+ | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ryan Doumit | Late & Close | 78 | 1.018 | .710 | .308 | 114 | 538 | 104 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 10 | 20 | .356 | .412 | .606 | 184 |
2 | Eric Hosmer | Late & Close | 84 | 1.059 | .801 | .258 | 107 | 680 | 95 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 11 | 14 | .389 | .449 | .611 | 164 |
3 | Alberto Callaspo | Late & Close | 60 | .921 | .702 | .219 | 76 | 516 | 66 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 8 | 12 | .288 | .360 | .561 | 160 |
4 | Josh Hamilton | Late & Close | 76 | .954 | .739 | .215 | 108 | 636 | 93 | 25 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 10 | 27 | .269 | .352 | .602 | 154 |
5 | James Loney | Late & Close | 71 | .977 | .778 | .199 | 89 | 598 | 83 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 5 | 10 | .337 | .375 | .602 | 148 |
6 | Kendrys Morales | Late & Close | 72 | .970 | .785 | .185 | 99 | 657 | 88 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 20 | .352 | .424 | .545 | 148 |
7 | Adrian Beltre | Late & Close | 78 | 1.059 | .880 | .179 | 97 | 690 | 89 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 12 | .416 | .464 | .596 | 142 |
8 | Alejandro De Aza | Late & Close | 90 | .901 | .728 | .173 | 124 | 675 | 109 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 7 | 32 | .294 | .342 | .560 | 144 |
9 | Ichiro Suzuki | Late & Close | 70 | .811 | .639 | .172 | 92 | 555 | 80 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 10 | .325 | .386 | .425 | 154 |
10 | Jose Bautista | Late & Close | 65 | 1.026 | .856 | .170 | 93 | 528 | 83 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 9 | 12 | .325 | .387 | .639 | 136 |
11 | Josh Reddick | Late & Close | 50 | .850 | .686 | .164 | 70 | 441 | 57 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 18 | .263 | .377 | .474 | 148 |
12 | Elvis Andrus | Late & Close | 79 | .823 | .659 | .164 | 104 | 698 | 87 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | .368 | .398 | .425 | 150 |
13 | Ryan Zimmerman | Late & Close | 76 | .964 | .809 | .155 | 97 | 633 | 87 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 19 | .345 | .412 | .552 | 138 |
14 | Brett Lawrie | Late & Close | 64 | .864 | .712 | .152 | 87 | 442 | 71 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 16 | .338 | .442 | .423 | 147 |
15 | Lorenzo Cain | Late & Close | 64 | .804 | .658 | .146 | 82 | 442 | 71 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 19 | .296 | .354 | .451 | 144 |
16 | Drew Stubbs | Late & Close | 55 | .807 | .665 | .142 | 76 | 481 | 70 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 23 | .257 | .307 | .500 | 140 |
17 | Jason Heyward | Late & Close | 48 | .917 | .776 | .141 | 68 | 440 | 57 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 12 | .263 | .373 | .544 | 134 |
18 | Miguel Montero | Late & Close | 67 | .802 | .662 | .140 | 99 | 475 | 86 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 22 | .302 | .384 | .419 | 143 |
19 | David Murphy | Late & Close | 53 | .788 | .656 | .132 | 73 | 476 | 68 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 13 | .235 | .288 | .500 | 136 |
20 | Chris Davis | Late & Close | 82 | 1.131 | 1.004 | .127 | 111 | 673 | 97 | 30 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 33 | 10 | 34 | .309 | .378 | .753 | 121 |
Okay. But that’s one season. Means very little by itself. Do any players show a similar OPS improvement in clutch situations from one season to the next? The answer is not very many. But, before I show you those results, consider that in today’s game of relief specialists, performance for most players at the end of games is worse than their overall performance. Thus, it should be less of a surprise to know that:
- Of the 1580 seasons of 400 PA for today’s 362 active players (those with at least one 400 PA season), only 287 of those seasons (18%) show a 50 point OPS bump in those clutch situations
- Of 158 active players with 3000 PAs (about 5 years worth), 31 (19.6%) have never had a season (min. 400 PA) with that 50 point clutch OPS bump
- A further 57 (36.1%, including “Captain Clutch”) have had only one such season
So, on the premise that a player must repeat a performance to show that it was more than just luck, almost 56% of today’s 5-year veteran players can make no such claim regarding clutch performance, even at the absolute minimum test for repeat performance.
So, what about the other 44% of those players who have shown that 50 point clutch OPS bump more than once? Among active players with at least 5 seasons of 400 PA, these are the hitters to do that most consistently.
Rk | Player | Clutch Seasons | Total Seasons | Percentage |
1 | Justin Upton | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
2 | Nick Markakis | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
3 | Corey Patterson | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
3 | Eric Hinske | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
5 | Adam LaRoche | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
5 | Victor Martinez | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
7 | Carlos Pena | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
8 | Cesar Izturis | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
9 | Bill Hall | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
9 | Chase Headley | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
9 | Cody Ross | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
9 | Evan Longoria | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
9 | Jerry Hairston | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
9 | Miguel Olivo | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
For players with 10 or more seasons of 400 PA, these are the clutch leaders.
Rk | Player | Clutch Seasons | Total Seasons | Percentage |
1 | A.J. Pierzynski | 5 | 13 | 38.5% |
2 | David Ortiz | 4 | 12 | 33.3% |
2 | Juan Pierre | 4 | 12 | 33.3% |
4 | Miguel Tejada | 4 | 13 | 30.8% |
5 | Mark Kotsay | 3 | 10 | 30.0% |
5 | Mark Teixeira | 3 | 10 | 30.0% |
5 | Matt Holliday | 3 | 10 | 30.0% |
5 | Rafael Furcal | 3 | 10 | 30.0% |
9 | Alex Rodriguez | 5 | 17 | 29.4% |
10 | Adrian Beltre | 4 | 15 | 26.7% |
So, as might be expected, maintaining clutch performance over the course of a career gets harder the longer you play. Yet, when over half of today’s 5-year veteran players cannot do this more than once in a career, I’m inclined to believe that more than luck is involved if a player can do this in even one season out of four over a career of 10+ seasons.
So, those are the leaders for most seasons. Who are the career leaders (min. 3000 PA) in clutch performance among active players?
Rk | Player | Split | G | OPStot | Diff | PA | PAtot | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | tOPS+ | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Corey Patterson | Late & Close | 566 | .748 | .691 | .057 | 778 | 4499 | 700 | 185 | 39 | 5 | 23 | 69 | 46 | 191 | .264 | .315 | .433 | 117 |
2 | Prince Fielder | Late & Close | 623 | .959 | .916 | .043 | 819 | 5612 | 677 | 206 | 37 | 1 | 40 | 123 | 127 | 166 | .304 | .420 | .539 | 110 |
3 | Victor Martinez | Late & Close | 658 | .874 | .833 | .041 | 865 | 5487 | 761 | 237 | 50 | 2 | 27 | 135 | 91 | 107 | .311 | .385 | .489 | 110 |
4 | Carlos Pena | Late & Close | 699 | .852 | .813 | .039 | 923 | 5830 | 767 | 188 | 35 | 2 | 49 | 150 | 137 | 257 | .245 | .365 | .488 | 110 |
5 | Ryan Doumit | Late & Close | 448 | .804 | .766 | .038 | 582 | 3241 | 512 | 139 | 29 | 1 | 22 | 73 | 50 | 114 | .271 | .343 | .461 | 110 |
6 | Cody Ross | Late & Close | 475 | .817 | .780 | .037 | 657 | 3562 | 581 | 162 | 31 | 0 | 26 | 95 | 61 | 160 | .279 | .350 | .466 | 110 |
7 | Evan Longoria | Late & Close | 369 | .905 | .870 | .035 | 498 | 3419 | 419 | 113 | 22 | 2 | 27 | 93 | 69 | 114 | .270 | .380 | .525 | 109 |
8 | Miguel Olivo | Late & Close | 501 | .727 | .692 | .035 | 677 | 3968 | 627 | 157 | 25 | 5 | 26 | 79 | 35 | 192 | .250 | .297 | .431 | 111 |
9 | Nick Swisher | Late & Close | 628 | .854 | .820 | .034 | 854 | 5647 | 709 | 189 | 38 | 1 | 35 | 105 | 131 | 215 | .267 | .383 | .471 | 109 |
10 | Aramis Ramirez | Late & Close | 913 | .879 | .846 | .033 | 1214 | 7939 | 1059 | 310 | 50 | 5 | 56 | 203 | 125 | 201 | .293 | .371 | .508 | 109 |
11 | Justin Upton | Late & Close | 411 | .863 | .830 | .033 | 542 | 3673 | 477 | 133 | 31 | 0 | 26 | 74 | 55 | 145 | .279 | .356 | .507 | 107 |
12 | Kelly Johnson | Late & Close | 491 | .795 | .762 | .033 | 659 | 4174 | 566 | 151 | 32 | 6 | 18 | 81 | 76 | 157 | .267 | .355 | .440 | 109 |
13 | Rafael Furcal | Late & Close | 789 | .782 | .749 | .033 | 1068 | 7200 | 887 | 255 | 41 | 5 | 15 | 95 | 143 | 151 | .287 | .386 | .396 | 110 |
14 | Yadier Molina | Late & Close | 512 | .772 | .743 | .029 | 696 | 4601 | 615 | 177 | 33 | 0 | 16 | 72 | 58 | 61 | .288 | .352 | .420 | 108 |
15 | Asdrubal Cabrera | Late & Close | 378 | .773 | .748 | .025 | 527 | 3455 | 456 | 130 | 26 | 3 | 9 | 68 | 50 | 94 | .285 | .359 | .414 | 107 |
16 | Nate McLouth | Late & Close | 427 | .776 | .752 | .024 | 595 | 3575 | 501 | 123 | 23 | 3 | 22 | 71 | 72 | 123 | .246 | .341 | .435 | 106 |
17 | Xavier Nady | Late & Close | 432 | .779 | .756 | .023 | 564 | 3199 | 499 | 133 | 22 | 0 | 21 | 77 | 48 | 110 | .267 | .342 | .437 | 107 |
18 | Nick Markakis | Late & Close | 582 | .823 | .801 | .022 | 805 | 5256 | 700 | 213 | 43 | 2 | 16 | 87 | 88 | 125 | .304 | .383 | .440 | 106 |
19 | Chase Headley | Late & Close | 419 | .783 | .765 | .018 | 573 | 3413 | 500 | 135 | 27 | 4 | 14 | 61 | 62 | 139 | .270 | .359 | .424 | 105 |
20 | Jeff Francoeur | Late & Close | 595 | .743 | .725 | .018 | 823 | 4959 | 751 | 191 | 43 | 6 | 26 | 108 | 52 | 159 | .254 | .311 | .431 | 104 |
So, many of the same names, as would be expected. Also, Ryan Doumit, the 2013 clutch leader, also cracks the top 5 on the career list. But, only Corey Patterson has maintained that 50 point clutch OPS bump for his career.
You might be wondering why I’ve focused this discussion exclusively on active players. Here’s why. Corey Patterson’s leading 57 point clutch OPS bump fails to crack the top 20 among all players who have played their entire careers since 1950. More than anything else, that speaks to the effect that late inning relief specialists have had on today’s game. That said, here is that career list for players who played their entire careers (min. 3000 PA) since 1950.
Rk | Player | Split | G | OPStot | Diff | PA | PAtot | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | tOPS+ | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mickey Mantle | Late & Close | 1149 | 1.101 | .977 | .124 | 1472 | 9907 | 1165 | 375 | 55 | 14 | 97 | 241 | 298 | 253 | .322 | .458 | .643 | 125 |
2 | Pat Meares | Late & Close | 388 | .783 | .673 | .110 | 508 | 3560 | 469 | 145 | 26 | 5 | 9 | 64 | 18 | 96 | .309 | .339 | .443 | 132 |
3 | Dan Ford | Late & Close | 550 | .849 | .750 | .099 | 763 | 4582 | 678 | 204 | 41 | 7 | 25 | 122 | 55 | 132 | .301 | .356 | .493 | 125 |
4 | Jerry Lynch | Late & Close | 582 | .886 | .792 | .094 | 681 | 3145 | 615 | 181 | 24 | 8 | 35 | 126 | 58 | 87 | .294 | .355 | .530 | 122 |
5 | Mike Shannon | Late & Close | 420 | .784 | .698 | .086 | 583 | 3056 | 525 | 148 | 24 | 3 | 19 | 81 | 41 | 96 | .282 | .336 | .448 | 124 |
6 | Roberto Clemente | Late & Close | 1257 | .919 | .835 | .084 | 1719 | 10211 | 1526 | 521 | 69 | 26 | 48 | 234 | 163 | 210 | .341 | .404 | .515 | 121 |
7 | Billy Gardner | Late & Close | 457 | .700 | .620 | .080 | 650 | 3890 | 572 | 155 | 33 | 2 | 6 | 51 | 48 | 60 | .271 | .333 | .367 | 126 |
7 | Denny Doyle | Late & Close | 437 | .691 | .611 | .080 | 579 | 3572 | 517 | 150 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 45 | 56 | .290 | .347 | .344 | 126 |
9 | Darin Erstad | Late & Close | 782 | .821 | .743 | .078 | 1029 | 6628 | 906 | 271 | 43 | 9 | 27 | 150 | 89 | 150 | .299 | .365 | .456 | 121 |
10 | Billy Martin | Late & Close | 413 | .746 | .669 | .077 | 542 | 3716 | 498 | 148 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 56 | 23 | 46 | .297 | .333 | .414 | 123 |
11 | Steve Braun | Late & Close | 704 | .814 | .738 | .076 | 861 | 4295 | 723 | 214 | 38 | 6 | 12 | 91 | 121 | 87 | .296 | .399 | .415 | 121 |
12 | Mike Lum | Late & Close | 690 | .762 | .689 | .073 | 868 | 4001 | 756 | 206 | 25 | 5 | 24 | 120 | 84 | 113 | .272 | .348 | .414 | 121 |
13 | Jim Wynn | Late & Close | 1012 | .873 | .802 | .071 | 1387 | 8011 | 1158 | 323 | 50 | 8 | 57 | 168 | 207 | 231 | .279 | .389 | .484 | 117 |
14 | Dave Chalk | Late & Close | 417 | .704 | .636 | .068 | 574 | 3330 | 484 | 132 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 48 | 65 | 55 | .273 | .361 | .343 | 122 |
15 | Hideki Matsui | Late & Close | 530 | .889 | .822 | .067 | 690 | 5066 | 607 | 182 | 33 | 2 | 31 | 102 | 75 | 121 | .300 | .375 | .514 | 115 |
16 | David Bell | Late & Close | 622 | .782 | .716 | .066 | 825 | 5380 | 732 | 201 | 42 | 1 | 28 | 99 | 59 | 112 | .275 | .333 | .449 | 117 |
17 | Gus Triandos | Late & Close | 583 | .799 | .734 | .065 | 771 | 4424 | 679 | 185 | 40 | 2 | 26 | 86 | 76 | 101 | .272 | .347 | .452 | 118 |
17 | Joe Azcue | Late & Close | 436 | .713 | .648 | .065 | 574 | 3094 | 517 | 144 | 18 | 3 | 9 | 49 | 46 | 58 | .279 | .336 | .377 | 120 |
19 | Tony Kubek | Late & Close | 513 | .731 | .667 | .064 | 709 | 4493 | 635 | 176 | 34 | 8 | 10 | 69 | 48 | 57 | .277 | .328 | .403 | 119 |
20 | Ben Oglivie | Late & Close | 852 | .848 | .786 | .062 | 1119 | 6598 | 975 | 283 | 46 | 7 | 42 | 161 | 114 | 156 | .290 | .367 | .481 | 116 |
20 | Ron LeFlore | Late & Close | 565 | .796 | .734 | .062 | 790 | 4872 | 718 | 223 | 29 | 12 | 12 | 81 | 57 | 129 | .311 | .362 | .435 | 117 |