“Young Guns” and the 2013 Postseason

The following might be stating the obvious, but I had to do something with my pregame nervous energy….

Recent days have sparked much talk about the success of young starting pitchers in this postseason. Indeed, several young starters have made impressive showings. But for every Michael Wacha, there’s a Matt Moore or a Julio Teheran — young starters with strong regular seasons, who bombed in their postseason starts. For every Sonny Gray gem of 8 shutout innings, there’s a Sonny Gray “meh” of 3 runs in 5 innings.

 

In all, we’ve seen 11 starts by those who have not yet turned 25, producing combined totals of 30 runs in 60 innings, a 4-5 individual record, and a 5-6 team record.

Here’s a 2013 postseason starter breakdown keyed on age 25 (stats through Saturday, and substituting Runs Allowed per 9 IP in place of ERA):

  • < Age 25: 4.50 RA/9 … 5.5 IP/G … Team record 5-6 … 5/11 in Quality Starts
  • = Age 25: 2.08 RA/9 … 6.2 IP/G … Team record 5-2 … 6/7 in Quality Starts
  • > Age 25: 4.11 RA/9 … 5.7 IP/G … Team record 13-15 … 16/28 in Quality Starts

The age-25 group gets a big boost from Clayton Kershaw. But the other 4 starts by that group — 2 by Joe Kelly, 1 each by Alex Cobb and Mike Minor — were almost as good, totaling 6 runs in 24.1 IP, a 2.22 RA/9, and a 3-1 team record. The under-25s were a lot more inconsistent.

These are all very small samples, and that’s the point. One Wacha does not constitute a trend.

__________

In broader terms, the talk has focused on dominant starting pitching, and we’ve seen plenty of that. But that misses a big part of the story. The postseason totals through Saturday:

  • Starters: 3.87 RA/9 … 8.7 SO/9 … 64% of innings
  • Relievers: 3.21 RA/9 … 9.2 SO/9 … 36% of innings

In team wins:

  • Starters: 2.13 RA/9 … 8.9 SO/9 … 70% of innings
  • Relievers: 1.56 RA/9 … 11.1 SO/9 … 30% of innings

For the LCS leaders, St. Louis and Detroit, all games combined:

  • Starters: 2.57 RA/9 … 10.6 SO/9 … 70% of innings
  • Relievers: 2.06 RA/9 … 10.0 SO/9 … 30% of innings

In Saturday’s two 1-0 games, the starters got 38 outs and allowed 12 baserunners. The relievers got 16 outs and allowed one baserunner. This is not to detract from the starters’ great work, just to note another part of the picture. Closers have allowed one run in 12 save chances this postseason, converting 11, going 6-for-7 in one-run games. There’s some great relief work happening, too.

__________

Finally, as a counterpoint to the notion that a great rotation is a recipe for postseason success, I gathered Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz … no, I gathered the 16 best rotation ERAs in each league from 2000 through 2012, and checked their postseason results. Of these 32 teams, two won the World Series, three lost the WS (two were swept), six lost the LCS, eight lost the DS, and 13 missed the postseason entirely.

National League: Best Starters’ ERA, 2000-2012

Rk Year ERA W L W% Postseason
1 PHI 2011 2.86 76 42 .644 Lost NLDS
2 SFG 2011 3.28 60 58 .508 Missed
3 WSN 2012 3.40 72 45 .615 Lost NLDS
4 LAD 2011 3.41 65 61 .516 Missed
5 LAD 2012 3.41 56 56 .500 Missed
6 ATL 2002 3.42 71 45 .612 Lost NLDS
7 HOU 2005 3.46 73 53 .579 Lost WS in 4
8 LAD 2003 3.49 66 57 .537 Missed
9 STL 2010 3.50 68 56 .548 Missed
10 ATL 2009 3.52 65 49 .570 Missed
11 SFG 2010 3.54 61 55 .526 Won WS
12 ATL 2001 3.54 64 51 .557 Lost NLCS in 5
13 PHI 2010 3.55 70 48 .593 Lost NLCS in 6
14 SFG 2009 3.58 63 53 .543 Missed
15 LAD 2009 3.58 58 44 .569 Lost NLCS in 5
16 STL 2005 3.61 81 47 .633 Lost NLCS in 6

 

American League: Best Starters’ ERA, 2000-2012

Rk Year ERA W L W% Postseason
1 TBR 2012 3.34 70 51 .579 Missed
2 OAK 2010 3.47 64 58 .525 Missed
3 TBR 2011 3.53 67 56 .545 Lost ALDS
4 BOS 2002 3.53 78 47 .624 Missed
5 LAA 2011 3.59 62 50 .554 Missed
6 OAK 2003 3.62 67 52 .563 Lost ALDS
7 OAK 2002 3.62 75 41 .647 Lost ALDS
8 TEX 2011 3.65 74 40 .649 Lost WS
9 OAK 2011 3.70 59 63 .484 Missed
10 TOR 2008 3.72 71 53 .573 Missed
11 OAK 2001 3.72 80 39 .672 Lost ALDS
12 LAA 2005 3.75 70 44 .614 Lost ALCS in 5
13 CHW 2005 3.75 75 44 .630 Won WS
14 DET 2012 3.76 63 51 .553 Lost WS in 4
15 SEA 2001 3.77 83 31 .728 Lost ALCS in 5
16 OAK 2012 3.80 64 54 .542 Lost ALDS

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

 

World Series Winners, 2000-2012

Tm Year Staff ERA+,
League Rk.
Starters’ ERA,
League Rk.
SFG 2012 11th 5th
STL 2011 11th 8th
SFG 2010 1st 2nd
NYY 2009 3rd 5th
PHI 2008 4th 7th
BOS 2007 1st 2nd
STL 2006 10th (tie) 12th
CHW 2005 1st 1st (tie)
BOS 2004 2nd 3rd
FLA 2003 7th (tie) 5th
ANA 2002 2nd 4th
ARI 2001 2nd 2nd
NYY 2000 4th (tie) 4th

 

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Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

And he sets a new record for a single post-season.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago

Using the data you provided, the average league rank of the World Champs’ starters (by ERA) over the last 13 years is 4.62.

By my count the average league rank of the World Champs’ hitters (by R/G) over the last 13 years is… 4.62.

JasonZ
11 years ago

I may be looking ahead, but what is the post season record for fewest hits by a team over 2 straight games??

JasonZ
11 years ago

A quick check shows the Dodgers with 4 hits the game after Larsen in 56, and. 6 hits the day before.

The Reds had 6 hits the day after Halladay in 10.

I would be shocked if the Dodgers don’t currently hold this dismal mark.

The Red Sox have a real chance to break what I think is the record.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Both the Dodgers and Giants won one of their pair of games.

JasonZ
11 years ago

Good gosh.

Bosox on track to have most strikeouts and fewest hits over 2-straight post season games?!?

It almost makes the lack of NYY palatable.

JasonZ
11 years ago

Thanks John.

Meethinks the surviving 56 Brooklyn Dodgers should ice the champagne.

This is actually pretty exciting to see what happens.

This is precisely why I love baseball, on any given day we can see something we have never seen before.

Yesterday, 2 1-0 games.

Now this.

Remarkable.

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago

JA: Through some kind of cosmic affinity or grand coincidence, take your pick, I had just finished perusing this passage of the NBJHBA when I checked in at HHS to read your comments: “The 1922 Yankees, who had the best starting rotation of the 1920s, lost the World Series four-zip (with a tie game). “The 1931 Philadelphia A’s, who had the best rotation of the 1930s, lost the World Series . . .. “The 1954 Cleveland Indians, who had the best starting rotation of the 1950s, lost the World Series in four straight. “The 1963 Yankees, who had the best… Read more »

JasonZ
11 years ago

Although he would never admit this, I think Leyland is managing this game knowing that with a win and Verlander back in Detroit, he can taste 3-0.

And we all know that 3-0 in baseball is almost a lock.

He seems to have an air of desperation, which surprises me.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  JasonZ

If that’s what Leyland was thinking, he should have sent Scherzer out to pitch the 8th inning. He was at 108 pitches but still looking sharp. If you do get that 3-0 series lead, chances are Scherzer will have lots of time to rest, so extend him to 120 or 125 pitches as long as he’s still getting guys out. Don’t give up a good thing too early; you won’t know what you’re missing until it’s gone. P.S. Scherzer, of course, is still in search of the first complete game of his career, regular season or post-season. Including post-season, Scherzer… Read more »

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Nice P.S.+, Doug.

Lyons, Sunday pitcher supreme, closed his career with 28 straight CGs. Over the final 21 (his last 16 in 1942, plus his five home from the War in ’46), his ERA was 1.96. He completed 74% of his starts over a 21-year career. I wonder whether any lively ball-era pitcher had a higher ratio. (I’m not spotting anyone close.)

Doug
Editor
11 years ago

Lyons tops the list. Only other live ball pitchers to complete two-thirds of their starts (min. 100 starts) are these guys. Rk Player CG GS From To Age G SHO W L W-L% IP BB SO ERA ERA+ 1 Ted Lyons 356 484 1923 1946 22-45 594 27 260 230 .531 4161.0 1121 1073 3.67 118 2 Wes Ferrell 227 323 1927 1941 19-33 374 17 193 128 .601 2623.0 1040 985 4.04 116 3 Red Lucas 204 302 1923 1938 21-36 396 22 157 135 .538 2542.0 455 602 3.72 107 4 Jim Tobin 156 227 1937 1945 24-32… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

Here are pitchers, whose careers were entirely in the live-ball era, with the greatest percentage of CG/GS.

Ted Lyons, .736
Lefty Grove, .652
Red Ruffing, .623
Warren Spahn, .574

For all pitchers Lyons is in 8th place. He is the last player to complete all of his starts in a season, minimum 20 starts. He completed 20 out of 20 in 1942.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

I should add that my reference book does not give a minimum start requirement. I could follow it up with my own PI search tomorrow.

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago

Comparing Doug’s list to yours I’d say the book probably uses either 400 or 500 starts as the cutoff point.

All 4 pitchers on Doug’s list and not on yours have fewer than 400 starts. All of the pitchers on your list have more than 500 starts.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

I ran a PI search for a minimum of 400 GS. There are two additional pitchers I found, Bob Feller at .576 and Carl Hubbell at .600. My reference book missed those two. For Burleigh Grimes’ record just in the live ball era, he clocks in at .637.

JasonZ
11 years ago

The only guy left from 04.

That is why.

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

He actually did get to it, he just didn’t have time to put his glove in the right place and catch it because it was hit so hard. Game of inches as they say.

JasonZ
11 years ago

If Detroit loses, that is going to be a miserable plane ride.

Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Berkman’s homer came as an Astro in the 8th inning of game 4 of the 2005 NLDS and closed Houston’s deficit to one run against the Braves. Brad Ausmus tied it with a 9th inning HR and Chris Burke, who ran for Berkman in the 10th, won it on a series-winning walk-off HR in the 18th. Adam LaRoche also had a granny for Atlanta earlier in the game, the only time two grand slams have been hit in the same post-season game. The winning pitcher was Roger Clemens, who pitched the last two innings on two days rest. That appearance… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Exactly John. And also very questionable to bring Smyly in against Ellsbury there, unless you’re also going to leave him in against the two righties preceding Ortiz, which of course, Leyland did not.

Bottom line though is Benoit must absolutely know that he cannot groove a fastball to Ortiz in that situation under any conditions. Walk him if you have to.

Second most devastating loss in modern Detroit Tiger history.

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago

Top 5 Win Probability Added (WPA) Hits in Fenway Park Post-Season History: .58 WPA: Vlad Guerrero, 10/11/2009, two outs, ninth inning, bases loaded single off Jonathan Papelbon turns an Angels one-run deficit into a one-run lead, Game 3 (final game) of the ALDS. .52 WPA: David Ortiz, 10/5/2003, two outs, eighth inning, two-RBI double off Keith Foulke turns a Red Sox one-run deficit into a one run lead over the A’s, Game 4 of ALDS (A’s won the first two games, Sox won the final three) .47 WPA: Tris Speaker, 10/9/1912 (World Series, Game 2), bases-empty hit to deep center… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

If the plan was to give Ellsbury nothing good to hit–and it might have been because Smyly was all over the place–then you might as well use Phil Coke in that situation, or just leave Veras in there. A walk establishes the DP possibility, so not a huge error there. But to burn Smyly, just to walk Ellsbury, when there’s a definite chance that Ortiz could come up in the inning, that doesn’t seem wise IMO.

And to correct my earlier comment, that was a grooved change-up, not fastball, that Ortiz hit.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

You’re spot on that the moves created a Feeling of tension.
The Sox had what, 3 hits in 16 innings?
I say treat them offhandedly like the bean eating bitches they are, until they prove themselves.

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Although I have no idea how to search for it, I suppose it’s a fairly unusual event for any grand slam to result in four different pitchers each being credited with one earned run.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I ran the PI as follows:
Game Finders Player Pitching
Find Number of Players Matching Criteria for a Game
Postseason
R = 1
Get Report

There were only 2 games in which 4 or more pitchers gave up 1 run apiece. One was the recent Tigers-Red Sox game and the other was the 10-14-75 game between the Reds and the Red Sox. There were no GS in the Reds-Red Sox game. So the GS in the Tigers-Red Sox game is the only one of its kind

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

For clarity, my post 39 is just for pitchers who gave up a run on the GS and gave up no other runs in the game. It’s possible that the pitchers being charged with the first and fourth runs of the GS could have yielded other runs.