The following might be stating the obvious, but I had to do something with my pregame nervous energy….
Recent days have sparked much talk about the success of young starting pitchers in this postseason. Indeed, several young starters have made impressive showings. But for every Michael Wacha, there’s a Matt Moore or a Julio Teheran — young starters with strong regular seasons, who bombed in their postseason starts. For every Sonny Gray gem of 8 shutout innings, there’s a Sonny Gray “meh” of 3 runs in 5 innings.
In all, we’ve seen 11 starts by those who have not yet turned 25, producing combined totals of 30 runs in 60 innings, a 4-5 individual record, and a 5-6 team record.
Here’s a 2013 postseason starter breakdown keyed on age 25 (stats through Saturday, and substituting Runs Allowed per 9 IP in place of ERA):
- < Age 25: 4.50 RA/9 … 5.5 IP/G … Team record 5-6 … 5/11 in Quality Starts
- = Age 25: 2.08 RA/9 … 6.2 IP/G … Team record 5-2 … 6/7 in Quality Starts
- > Age 25: 4.11 RA/9 … 5.7 IP/G … Team record 13-15 … 16/28 in Quality Starts
The age-25 group gets a big boost from Clayton Kershaw. But the other 4 starts by that group — 2 by Joe Kelly, 1 each by Alex Cobb and Mike Minor — were almost as good, totaling 6 runs in 24.1 IP, a 2.22 RA/9, and a 3-1 team record. The under-25s were a lot more inconsistent.
These are all very small samples, and that’s the point. One Wacha does not constitute a trend.
__________
In broader terms, the talk has focused on dominant starting pitching, and we’ve seen plenty of that. But that misses a big part of the story. The postseason totals through Saturday:
- Starters: 3.87 RA/9 … 8.7 SO/9 … 64% of innings
- Relievers: 3.21 RA/9 … 9.2 SO/9 … 36% of innings
In team wins:
- Starters: 2.13 RA/9 … 8.9 SO/9 … 70% of innings
- Relievers: 1.56 RA/9 … 11.1 SO/9 … 30% of innings
For the LCS leaders, St. Louis and Detroit, all games combined:
- Starters: 2.57 RA/9 … 10.6 SO/9 … 70% of innings
- Relievers: 2.06 RA/9 … 10.0 SO/9 … 30% of innings
In Saturday’s two 1-0 games, the starters got 38 outs and allowed 12 baserunners. The relievers got 16 outs and allowed one baserunner. This is not to detract from the starters’ great work, just to note another part of the picture. Closers have allowed one run in 12 save chances this postseason, converting 11, going 6-for-7 in one-run games. There’s some great relief work happening, too.
__________
Finally, as a counterpoint to the notion that a great rotation is a recipe for postseason success, I gathered Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz … no, I gathered the 16 best rotation ERAs in each league from 2000 through 2012, and checked their postseason results. Of these 32 teams, two won the World Series, three lost the WS (two were swept), six lost the LCS, eight lost the DS, and 13 missed the postseason entirely.
National League: Best Starters’ ERA, 2000-2012
Rk | Year | W | L | Postseason | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | PHI | 2011 | 2.86 | 76 | 42 | .644 | Lost NLDS |
2 | SFG | 2011 | 3.28 | 60 | 58 | .508 | Missed |
3 | WSN | 2012 | 3.40 | 72 | 45 | .615 | Lost NLDS |
4 | LAD | 2011 | 3.41 | 65 | 61 | .516 | Missed |
5 | LAD | 2012 | 3.41 | 56 | 56 | .500 | Missed |
6 | ATL | 2002 | 3.42 | 71 | 45 | .612 | Lost NLDS |
7 | HOU | 2005 | 3.46 | 73 | 53 | .579 | Lost WS in 4 |
8 | LAD | 2003 | 3.49 | 66 | 57 | .537 | Missed |
9 | STL | 2010 | 3.50 | 68 | 56 | .548 | Missed |
10 | ATL | 2009 | 3.52 | 65 | 49 | .570 | Missed |
11 | SFG | 2010 | 3.54 | 61 | 55 | .526 | Won WS |
12 | ATL | 2001 | 3.54 | 64 | 51 | .557 | Lost NLCS in 5 |
13 | PHI | 2010 | 3.55 | 70 | 48 | .593 | Lost NLCS in 6 |
14 | SFG | 2009 | 3.58 | 63 | 53 | .543 | Missed |
15 | LAD | 2009 | 3.58 | 58 | 44 | .569 | Lost NLCS in 5 |
16 | STL | 2005 | 3.61 | 81 | 47 | .633 | Lost NLCS in 6 |
American League: Best Starters’ ERA, 2000-2012
Rk | Year | W | L | Postseason | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | TBR | 2012 | 3.34 | 70 | 51 | .579 | Missed |
2 | OAK | 2010 | 3.47 | 64 | 58 | .525 | Missed |
3 | TBR | 2011 | 3.53 | 67 | 56 | .545 | Lost ALDS |
4 | BOS | 2002 | 3.53 | 78 | 47 | .624 | Missed |
5 | LAA | 2011 | 3.59 | 62 | 50 | .554 | Missed |
6 | OAK | 2003 | 3.62 | 67 | 52 | .563 | Lost ALDS |
7 | OAK | 2002 | 3.62 | 75 | 41 | .647 | Lost ALDS |
8 | TEX | 2011 | 3.65 | 74 | 40 | .649 | Lost WS |
9 | OAK | 2011 | 3.70 | 59 | 63 | .484 | Missed |
10 | TOR | 2008 | 3.72 | 71 | 53 | .573 | Missed |
11 | OAK | 2001 | 3.72 | 80 | 39 | .672 | Lost ALDS |
12 | LAA | 2005 | 3.75 | 70 | 44 | .614 | Lost ALCS in 5 |
13 | CHW | 2005 | 3.75 | 75 | 44 | .630 | Won WS |
14 | DET | 2012 | 3.76 | 63 | 51 | .553 | Lost WS in 4 |
15 | SEA | 2001 | 3.77 | 83 | 31 | .728 | Lost ALCS in 5 |
16 | OAK | 2012 | 3.80 | 64 | 54 | .542 | Lost ALDS |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
World Series Winners, 2000-2012
Tm | Year | Staff ERA+, League Rk. |
Starters’ ERA, League Rk. |
---|---|---|---|
SFG | 2012 | 11th | 5th |
STL | 2011 | 11th | 8th |
SFG | 2010 | 1st | 2nd |
NYY | 2009 | 3rd | 5th |
PHI | 2008 | 4th | 7th |
BOS | 2007 | 1st | 2nd |
STL | 2006 | 10th (tie) | 12th |
CHW | 2005 | 1st | 1st (tie) |
BOS | 2004 | 2nd | 3rd |
FLA | 2003 | 7th (tie) | 5th |
ANA | 2002 | 2nd | 4th |
ARI | 2001 | 2nd | 2nd |
NYY | 2000 | 4th (tie) | 4th |