Playoff Preview: who’s going to win the pennant this year?

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The LDS series begin later this week. After the jump, a quick look at the players who have historically fared the best and the worst in the LDS round.

Also, a look at which teams match up best and worst with which other teams, based on this season’s play.

Here are the players on this year’s playoff teams who have historically performed well in the LDS.

Rk Player G  Tm PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS ▾
1 Carlos Beltran 13 STL 62 49 20 5 0 6 14 11 7 .408 .516 .878 1.394
2 Chris Young 8 OAK 34 29 10 1 0 5 8 5 13 .345 .441 .897 1.338
3 Andre Ethier 8 LAD 29 23 7 2 1 2 3 5 6 .304 .448 .739 1.187
4 Ryan Ludwick 8 CIN 35 30 10 0 0 3 5 5 5 .333 .429 .633 1.062
5 Stephen Drew 8 BOS 35 33 11 3 1 2 5 2 12 .333 .371 .667 1.038
6 Skip Schumaker 11 LAD 22 20 8 3 0 0 5 1 1 .400 .455 .550 1.005
7 Brandon Phillips 8 CIN 37 36 13 4 0 2 8 0 5 .361 .351 .639 .990
8 David Freese 10 STL 40 37 13 5 0 1 6 3 14 .351 .400 .568 .968
9 Torii Hunter 23 DET 100 90 30 7 1 4 16 7 12 .333 .384 .567 .951
10 Brian McCann 7 ATL 32 30 9 1 0 3 8 1 10 .300 .313 .633 .946
11 Justin Upton 7 ATL 31 25 7 0 0 2 4 6 6 .280 .419 .520 .939
12 Mike Napoli 13 BOS 42 36 10 1 0 3 8 3 12 .278 .381 .556 .937
13 Jay Bruce 8 CIN 32 27 7 2 0 2 5 4 2 .259 .375 .556 .931
14 Justin Morneau 7 PIT 29 29 9 3 0 2 4 0 3 .310 .310 .621 .931
15 Jason Giambi 32 CLE 122 95 30 5 0 3 15 22 20 .316 .451 .463 .914
16 Allen Craig 8 STL 37 29 7 2 1 1 3 8 10 .241 .405 .483 .888
17 Daniel Descalso 9 STL 26 22 6 1 0 2 6 1 7 .273 .292 .591 .883
18 Shane Victorino 19 BOS 78 72 22 6 0 3 12 5 2 .306 .351 .514 .865
19 David Ortiz 25 BOS 109 93 25 8 0 4 13 16 26 .269 .376 .484 .860
20 B.J. Upton 13 ATL 58 53 13 5 1 3 6 5 18 .245 .310 .547 .858
21 Jhonny Peralta 14 DET 57 50 16 5 0 0 3 6 10 .320 .404 .420 .824
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/30/201

The lack of players for Oakland and Pittsburgh is more a reflection of the lack of playoff experience on these teams, rather than a suggestion that their players have not performed well in the LDS. Perhaps more worrisome is the Tigers’ situation with lots of playoff experience but not many names on the list above.

Here are the players who have struggled in the LDS round.

Rk Player G  Tm PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS ▴
1 Michael Young 9 LAD 36 35 5 0 0 1 3 1 8 .143 .167 .229 .395
2 Dustin Pedroia 10 BOS 47 42 5 4 0 0 4 4 4 .119 .213 .214 .427
3 Carl Crawford 9 LAD 37 35 6 0 0 1 3 2 6 .171 .216 .257 .473
4 Sean Rodriguez 8 TBR 24 22 4 1 0 0 1 2 5 .182 .250 .227 .477
5 Matt Kemp 6 LAD 27 27 4 2 0 1 3 0 13 .148 .148 .333 .481
6 Alex Avila 9 DET 31 28 4 1 0 1 2 2 13 .143 .200 .286 .486
7 Coco Crisp 10 OAK 38 36 7 0 0 1 4 2 5 .194 .237 .278 .515
8 Drew Stubbs 8 CLE 30 28 5 1 1 0 1 2 7 .179 .233 .286 .519
9 Juan Uribe 11 LAD 39 36 7 1 0 1 6 1 12 .194 .216 .306 .522
10 Brandon Inge 8 PIT 24 22 5 1 0 0 0 0 6 .227 .261 .273 .534
11 Jon Jay 10 STL 40 32 6 0 1 0 6 5 8 .188 .289 .250 .539
12 Yadier Molina 20 STL 82 75 17 2 0 0 6 6 10 .227 .293 .253 .546
13 Austin Jackson 10 DET 43 36 7 3 0 0 3 5 15 .194 .293 .278 .570
14 Zack Cozart 5 CIN 24 21 5 0 0 0 0 2 5 .238 .333 .238 .571
15 Asdrubal Cabrera 4 CLE 21 17 3 0 0 1 2 1 4 .176 .222 .353 .575
16 Matthew Joyce 8 TBR 25 24 5 1 0 1 4 1 9 .208 .240 .375 .615
17 Nick Swisher 22 CLE 84 75 15 5 0 2 5 8 18 .200 .274 .347 .620
18 Nick Punto 9 LAD 31 27 7 1 0 0 1 3 5 .259 .333 .296 .630
19 Matt Holliday 15 STL 60 55 11 1 0 3 8 2 14 .200 .267 .382 .648
20 Joey Votto 8 CIN 33 28 8 0 0 0 1 4 7 .286 .364 .286 .649
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.

Surprising number of Cardinals on the second list, including some of their core players. The Rays and Indians also appear over-represented, especially relative to their lack of representation in the first list.

Now to the team-by-team matchups. I’m showing 2013 pitching and batting splits for each team against the others in their league. Obviously very small sample sizes but at least gives you an idea about which teams have fared better against which opponents. I’ll leave it to you readers to decide whether there’s any predictive value in those observations.

Oakland Athletics

Oakland looks most vulnerable to Cleveland. A series with the Tigers looks to be a shootout.

Rk Split ERA W L CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
11 OAK BOS 3.29 3 3 1 1 1 52.0 44 21 19 2 1.135 7.1 2.73
14 OAK TBR 3.53 3 3 0 0 2 51.0 49 22 20 4 1.294 7.6 2.53
21 OAK CLE 4.27 2 5 0 0 1 59.0 61 33 28 12 1.407 8.1 2.41
22 OAK DET 5.40 4 3 1 0 2 61.2 80 40 37 11 1.622 4.7 1.60
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.
Rk Split G OPS GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG BAbip tOPS+
4 OAK DET 7 .811 63 277 246 42 70 18 1 8 41 4 2 26 63 .285 .348 .463 .346 117
14 OAK BOS 6 .711 54 230 191 32 43 9 0 6 30 5 2 34 53 .225 .345 .366 .276 93
20 OAK TBR 6 .619 54 204 183 15 38 6 1 5 15 4 0 18 39 .208 .286 .333 .237 67
22 OAK CLE 7 .607 63 254 227 19 49 8 0 5 18 1 1 21 61 .216 .290 .317 .272 64
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013

Cleveland Indians

Cleveland would love to face Oakland. The Indians’ pitching and hitting has struggled to compete with the other teams, with a combined record of 7-25 on the season.

Rk Split ERA W L CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
3 CLE OAK 2.51 5 2 0 0 2 61.0 49 19 17 5 1.148 9.0 2.90
20 CLE TBR 4.67 2 4 0 0 0 52.0 49 30 27 6 1.404 7.6 1.83
21 CLE DET 5.89 4 15 0 0 3 171.0 208 120 112 22 1.684 8.2 1.95
22 CLE BOS 5.93 1 6 0 0 1 60.2 64 43 40 3 1.566 11.3 2.45
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.
Rk Split G OPS GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG BAbip tOPS+
6 CLE OAK 7 .813 63 258 231 33 61 15 0 12 31 5 2 22 53 .264 .328 .485 .292 119
16 CLE BOS 7 .677 63 265 236 30 57 14 1 4 27 9 1 26 64 .242 .317 .360 .312 85
17 CLE TBR 6 .676 54 213 196 23 45 11 0 7 23 2 2 15 49 .230 .283 .393 .270 82
20 CLE DET 19 .647 171 716 651 70 145 38 2 16 68 18 2 54 173 .223 .286 .361 .277 76
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa wants to avoid the Tigers and Red Sox, preferring Oakland and Cleveland.

Rk Split ERA W L CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
3 TBR OAK 2.29 3 3 1 0 1 51.0 38 15 13 5 1.098 6.9 2.17
10 TBR BOS 3.54 7 12 2 1 3 172.2 130 71 68 13 1.095 8.6 2.80
15 TBR CLE 3.91 4 2 0 0 1 53.0 45 23 23 7 1.132 8.3 3.27
19 TBR DET 4.25 3 3 0 0 2 53.0 57 25 25 8 1.491 8.0 2.14
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.
Rk Split G OPS GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG BAbip tOPS+
15 TBR CLE 6 .721 54 226 199 30 49 9 1 6 29 3 0 24 44 .246 .329 .392 .287 96
18 TBR OAK 6 .695 54 214 194 22 49 13 0 4 20 5 0 17 43 .253 .313 .381 .302 88
19 TBR BOS 19 .676 171 727 643 57 149 30 2 17 56 16 6 73 159 .232 .312 .364 .280 84
22 TBR DET 6 .605 54 212 196 16 44 6 3 3 16 2 1 13 51 .224 .274 .332 .285 65
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.

Detroit Tigers

Detroit has owned Cleveland this year, but would prefer to avoid Boston.

Rk Split G ERA W L CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
8 DET TBR 18 2.52 3 3 0 0 2 53.2 44 16 15 3 1.062 8.6 3.92
14 DET CLE 73 3.45 15 4 0 0 6 175.0 145 70 67 16 1.137 8.9 3.20
20 DET OAK 25 5.58 3 4 0 0 0 61.1 70 42 38 8 1.565 9.2 2.42
23 DET BOS 26 6.05 4 3 0 0 1 61.0 77 43 41 11 1.639 7.7 2.26
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.
Rk Split G OPS GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG BAbip tOPS+
7 DET OAK 7 .852 63 280 257 40 80 9 2 11 39 1 0 20 32 .311 .362 .490 .321 118
8 DET CLE 19 .851 171 789 692 120 208 48 4 22 113 5 3 80 156 .301 .375 .477 .357 118
12 DET TBR 6 .788 54 234 207 25 57 11 0 8 24 2 1 22 47 .275 .343 .444 .316 101
15 DET BOS 7 .758 63 264 238 35 67 12 1 6 32 2 2 22 52 .282 .342 .416 .335 95
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.

Boston Red Sox

A Red Sox/Rays series looks like it will be a pitchers’ duel. Boston would love to face Cleveland but would prefer to avoid Oakland.

Rk Split ERA W L CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
5 BOS TBR 2.93 12 7 0 0 2 175.0 149 57 57 17 1.269 8.2 2.18
11 BOS CLE 3.71 6 1 0 0 3 63.0 57 30 26 4 1.317 9.1 2.46
19 BOS DET 4.65 3 4 0 0 1 60.0 67 35 31 6 1.483 7.8 2.36
23 BOS OAK 5.30 3 3 0 0 3 52.2 43 32 31 6 1.462 9.1 1.56
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.
Rk Split G OPS GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG BAbip tOPS+
4 BOS DET 7 .902 63 280 248 43 77 15 2 11 40 4 0 23 52 .310 .382 .520 .353 126
16 BOS CLE 7 .767 63 276 236 43 64 17 3 3 41 8 1 31 76 .271 .360 .407 .379 94
22 BOS OAK 6 .629 54 220 199 21 44 13 2 2 21 5 0 15 41 .221 .292 .337 .269 59
23 BOS TBR 19 .612 171 697 625 71 130 33 3 13 69 18 2 59 165 .208 .280 .333 .259 55
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.

Atlanta Braves

A series with the Reds or Pirates looks to be a bit of a shootout. Against the Dodgers or Cardinals, expect more of a pitchers’ duel.

Rk Split ERA W L CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
2 ATL LAD 1.88 5 2 0 0 4 62.1 44 17 13 4 0.963 7.9 3.44
9 ATL STL 2.85 4 3 0 0 4 60.0 49 20 19 4 1.067 6.8 3.00
11 ATL PIT 2.95 4 3 0 0 1 61.0 48 23 20 6 1.082 9.0 3.39
19 ATL CIN 4.16 4 3 0 0 3 62.2 64 30 29 7 1.372 8.8 2.77
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.
Rk Split G OPS GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG BAbip tOPS+
6 ATL CIN 7 .779 63 263 239 35 62 9 3 11 34 0 0 19 63 .259 .319 .460 .309 114
8 ATL PIT 7 .749 63 268 222 26 51 8 0 10 25 2 3 37 62 .230 .348 .401 .272 108
16 ATL LAD 7 .697 63 261 227 27 55 7 1 7 26 0 4 27 60 .242 .323 .374 .296 94
17 ATL STL 7 .671 63 246 230 21 61 6 1 5 19 1 1 13 53 .265 .306 .365 .324 86
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.

St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis would love to face the Reds but would prefer to avoid the Dodgers. A series with Atlanta looks like a low-scoring affair.

Rk Split ERA W L CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
5 STL ATL 2.70 3 4 1 0 1 60.0 61 21 18 5 1.233 8.0 4.08
16 STL CIN 3.93 11 8 1 1 3 174.0 150 77 76 20 1.247 8.2 2.36
17 STL PIT 4.03 9 10 0 0 1 174.1 172 85 78 19 1.354 8.3 2.52
19 STL LAD 4.21 3 4 0 0 1 62.0 67 30 29 3 1.516 7.0 1.78
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.
Rk Split G OPS GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG BAbip tOPS+
12 STL CIN 19 .743 171 736 667 102 174 47 1 20 94 4 2 55 134 .261 .319 .424 .298 102
18 STL PIT 19 .658 171 754 673 87 167 40 3 5 80 7 2 62 140 .248 .319 .339 .305 81
20 STL LAD 7 .649 63 261 236 27 56 14 0 4 26 0 0 18 53 .237 .301 .347 .289 77
22 STL ATL 7 .621 63 238 220 20 49 16 0 4 19 1 0 15 45 .223 .271 .350 .262 69
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers match up well with Pittsburgh, but want to avoid the Braves who have exposed weaknesses in LA’s defense.

Rk Split ERA W L CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
5 LAD PIT 2.33 4 2 0 0 3 54.0 35 14 14 4 0.963 9.3 3.29
6 LAD CIN 2.42 3 4 0 0 2 63.1 44 17 17 6 0.995 8.7 3.21
7 LAD ATL 2.66 2 5 0 0 0 61.0 55 27 18 7 1.344 8.9 2.22
11 LAD STL 3.05 4 3 0 0 2 62.0 56 27 21 4 1.194 7.7 2.94
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.
Rk Split G OPS GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG BAbip tOPS+
7 LAD STL 7 .753 63 274 239 30 67 14 2 3 30 2 2 27 48 .280 .359 .393 .339 109
19 LAD PIT 6 .650 54 216 194 18 49 11 0 2 18 5 1 17 42 .253 .310 .340 .309 81
21 LAD CIN 7 .594 63 245 229 16 52 6 0 6 16 3 3 8 63 .227 .263 .332 .288 64
22 LAD ATL 7 .540 63 244 223 17 44 8 0 4 15 1 1 16 55 .197 .253 .287 .242 50
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh needs to avoid the Dodgers. There could be some runs scored on both sides in the other matchups.

Rk Split ERA W L CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
13 PIT LAD 3.06 2 4 0 0 2 53.0 49 18 18 2 1.245 7.1 2.47
14 PIT CIN 3.25 11 8 0 0 7 174.1 149 71 63 18 1.273 8.0 2.11
19 PIT ATL 3.82 3 4 0 0 2 61.1 51 26 26 10 1.435 9.1 1.68
20 PIT STL 4.00 10 9 1 0 2 175.2 167 87 78 5 1.304 7.2 2.26
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.
Rk Split G OPS GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG BAbip tOPS+
6 PIT STL 19 .761 171 756 664 85 172 43 6 19 82 5 4 64 161 .259 .334 .428 .312 115
9 PIT CIN 19 .729 171 735 645 73 156 20 3 27 72 10 6 61 159 .242 .321 .408 .279 106
15 PIT ATL 7 .680 63 250 221 23 48 17 1 6 21 1 2 18 61 .217 .296 .385 .271 92
23 PIT LAD 6 .535 54 212 189 14 35 6 0 4 14 1 3 17 56 .185 .255 .280 .238 52
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds would prefer to avoid their division mates. A matchup with Los Angeles looks to be a low-scoring affair, but there could be some runs scored in a series with the Braves.

Rk Split ERA W L CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
5 CIN LAD 2.12 4 3 0 0 2 63.2 52 16 15 6 0.942 8.9 7.88
14 CIN PIT 3.52 8 11 0 0 5 173.2 156 73 68 27 1.250 8.2 2.61
21 CIN ATL 5.02 3 4 0 0 1 61.0 62 35 34 11 1.328 9.3 3.32
22 CIN STL 5.10 8 11 1 0 3 173.0 174 102 98 20 1.324 7.0 2.44
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.
Rk Split G OPS GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG BAbip tOPS+
6 CIN ATL 7 .778 63 268 236 30 64 15 2 7 29 2 4 22 61 .271 .337 .441 .333 116
13 CIN STL 19 .696 171 730 641 77 150 29 3 20 75 3 3 67 158 .234 .313 .382 .280 93
17 CIN PIT 19 .677 171 738 644 71 149 25 1 18 66 9 9 73 154 .231 .320 .357 .276 89
21 CIN LAD 7 .609 63 248 221 17 44 10 1 6 16 4 0 19 61 .199 .275 .335 .247 70
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/1/2013.
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Artie Z.
Artie Z.
11 years ago

It’s so difficult for me to draw any meaningful conclusions from teams who have played 7 games against each other. Gerritt Cole joined the Pirates on June 11 – and the Braves were already done with the Pirates for the year.

So I’m picking the Pirates and the Rays to win the pennant. My rationale? They are the only playoff teams I have seen in person this year.

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