When Chris Became Crush

After popping his 49th homer of the season against the Yankees on Tuesday night, slugger Chris Davis now stands just 1 blast shy of the Baltimore Orioles single-season record, set by Brady Anderson back in 1997. Davis still has an outside shot at making a run at Roger Maris‘ AL record of 61 homers as well, but that’s looking a little bit more like wishful thinking as we wind toward October.

But even without the AL home run record, what Chris Davis has done this season has been nothing short of phenomenal. He’s entirely remade his swing, showed remarkable plate discipline, and perhaps most importantly, Davis has finally figured out how to hit an off-speed pitch.

Those breaking balls, which used to give Davis fits back in his Texas days, are now sailing over the fence at a greater frequency than any other player in baseball. In 226 at-bats this season against pitches that Brooks-Baseball classifies in either the off-speed or breaking category, Davis has hit .294 with 23 homers and 20 doubles. That’s All-Star/MVP level production without even taking into account all the damage the 1st baseman has done against fastballs this year and, when compared to his days in Texas, his performance is as different as night and day.

So how did Chris Davis fare against those very same pitches as a Ranger? Well, not terribly, but it’s nothing to write home about either. He hit .220 with 19 homers in 344 at-bats against off-speed and breaking pitches, but the biggest problem was the strikeouts. Davis struck out 38% of the time he was faced with a breaking ball and to make matters worse, he displayed very little knowledge of the strike zone while doing it.

If we delve deeper into the numbers, things look even better for Davis. According to Fangraphs, he currently ranks 1st in baseball in value produced on change-ups and sliders while posting positive value against the curve for the first time since 2009. For some perspective on those pitch values consider the fact that Davis has been worth 16 runs above average against the change-up in his career and 12 of those aforementioned runs have come during the 2013 season. That goes double for the slider and curveball as well.

A big part of this improvement is centered on Davis’ stance at the plate. Davis currently stands very tall at the plate and when his swing is working properly he has an exaggerated hand drop to go along with a fairly large leg kick. The hand drop and leg kick work in tandem to act as a trigger mechanism, which allows Davis to get his hands inside the ball, thus creating poetry in motion.

Back when he was in Texas, Davis was told a couple of different things. He was coached to crouch more at the plate while his leg stride was cut down and his hand movement, or trigger mechanism, was cut short. Davis has a naturally long swing, one that takes a lot of time to load, and the Rangers where hoping that by dropping some of the swing’s slower aspects, they could discover a better hitter within. Unfortunately the move backfired and robbed Davis of much of his power and by 2010 he was a borderline big leaguer at best.

“They (Rangers’ coaches) thought that because my head dropped and moved forward, that’s why I swung at pitches in front of the plate so often,” Davis said in an interview with Sports Illustrated. “They thought it looked to me like the pitch was getting closer. But what I found was that the sooner I’m able to make that move, the better (pitch) recognition I have. And that’s something I had to figure out for myself.”

Davis did figure that out for himself and now he’s developed into one of baseball’s best hitters. He’s no longer trying to just make contact with the ball as he used to do in Texas. Davis is now attempting to hit his opponent’s offerings with authority. His walk rate is up to a career high 10.6%, which is nearly double his previous best and most importantly, he looks completely comfortably at the plate.

Big thanks to Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and Brooks Baseball for the statistical help.

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birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago

119 position players since 1900 have put together a WAR of 6 or more in their age 27 season, after having played in the majors previously. Of those 119, only two have had a career WAR of less than 2.0 going into that age 27 season, and both of them, Chris Davis and Josh Donaldson, are having their big age 27 season this year. Some other guys with big age 27 years after accumulating very small career WAR numbers before that: Jim Gentile, Alex Gordon, Carl Reynolds, Brian Roberts, Greg Vaughn, Johnny Pesky. (Contrast Mickey Mantle, who already had 60.8… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I wouldn’t lump in Johnny Pesky with the underachievers who exploded at age-27. At age 23 in 1942, Pesky had an MVP-type season with 5.5 WAR, good for 7th in the AL in WAR, and 3rd in the actual MVP voting. He then spent the next three years (as did many other MLB players) serving in WWII. If he hadn’t lost those three years, he probably would’ve had 15-20 WAR before age 27, maybe more. Chris Davis would need 13 HRs in 17 games to break Maris’ record; I think that “outside chance” is really “not gonna happen”. I do… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

13 HRs is more than Chris has in his 49 games played since the All-Star break.

Thanks for the important point about Pesky.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Johnnny Pesky may be the one player whose HOF chances were hurt the most by WWII/military service. Give him back 1943-45, and he probably has six great seasons instead of his actual three (he picked up in 1946 right where he left off in 1942). Johhny Mize probably would’ve been elected by the BBWAA instead of the Veterans’ Committee, and Hank Greenberg might’ve been elected sooner, if not for the time they lost. Ted Williams lost the most time, almost five years, but it didn’t matter since his actual accomplishments were so incredible. Give him back those 700 games, though,… Read more »

Jason Z
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Trying to imagine Ted Williams’ career without the almost
five seasons lost to military service is one of the best
“what ifs” in baseball history.

I am always amazed at the partial season Williams enjoyed upon returning from Korea in 1953.

In 37 games and 110 plate appearance he went
.407/.509/.901 with 13 HR’s.

2.0 WAR straight from war in approximately 15% of a full seasons plate appearances.

Paul E
Paul E
11 years ago

FWIW, Davis did hit the living $#!^ out of the ball in most of his AAA minor league stops. I don’t think he’ll break the speed limit, let alone hit 60, but 50 homers is a hell of an accomplishment. Regarding this WAR exercise to prove the rarity of Davis’ (and Donaldson’s) 27-year-old seasons, maybe we should be looking at, in Davis’ case at least, ISO as a tool to express the unusual nature of his improvement. You know, since most of his WAR is derived from everything other than fielding and baserunning. Further, I don’t subscribe to PI, nor… Read more »

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

According to my calculations Davis’ ISO this year is 57.62% greater than the figure for the rest of his career. For a comparison, Bonds 2001-2004 posted an ISO figure 60.43% greater than his career ISO up to that point.

This all pales in comparison to the single most bizarre season in recent history though, Jacoby Ellsbury’s 2011. Ellsbury’s ISO that year is 65.25% greater than the number for the rest of his career.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  RJ

I also ran Davis’ ISO calcs and got a different number than you.
For 2013 his ISO = SLG – BA = .652 – .297 = .355.
For the first five years of his career ISO = .466 – .258 = .208.

The increase for 2013 is (.355 – .208)/(.208) = .707 = 70.7%.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago

Oh dear, I’ve got this all wrong. The figures I have given are the player’s ISO numbers relative to their big years i.e. Chris Davis’ career ISO is X% of this year’s number. Even then it looks like I may have fudged the numbers slightly. Apologies all, thanks once again Richard for putting me straight.

Paul E
Paul E
11 years ago
Reply to  RJ

RJ:
I don’t know exactly how one might figure the increase in ISO, however, I believe that:
Davis: pre-2013 .208 increased to current .356 (71.2% better)
Ellsbury: pre-2011 .114 increased to 2011 .231 (102.6% better)
Bonds: 1986-1998 .266 increased to 1999-end .396 (48.9% better)

I’m using 1999 for Bonds since that is when he supposedly was “upset” with the attention Sosa and McGwire received for the HR derby during 1998:

McGwire: 1986-’92 .256 increased to ’93-end .396 (54.7% better)
Sosa: 1989-’97 .212 increased to 1998-end .301 (42% better)
Sosa: 1989-’97 .212 increased to 1998-2002 .356 (62% better)

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  RJ

Brady Anderson’s 1996 ISO was .340, while his career ISO through 1995 was .143.

That’s a 238% increase!

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  RJ

Davey Johnson:
.276 ISO in 1973.
.119 ISO from 1965-1972.
132% increase.

PaulE
PaulE
11 years ago

Bstar:
In the case of Anderson, wouldn’t it be the improvement (.197) / (.143) the prior? Or 138%?

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  PaulE

D’oh! Good catch, Paul! Thanks.

PaulE
PaulE
11 years ago

And Davis hit #50 tonight 🙂