Circle of Greats 1944 Balloting

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This post is for voting and discussion in the thirtieth round of balloting for the Circle of Greats. This round adds those players born in 1944. Rules and lists are after the jump.

The new group joins the holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full group eligible to receive your votes this round. The new group of 1944-born players must, as always, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers).

Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. The one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.

All voting for this round closes at 11:00 PM EDT on Monday, September 23, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:00 PM EDT Saturday, September 21.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: 1944 COG Vote Tally . I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover players; additional player columns from the new born-in-1944 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The 12 current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The new group of 1944 birth-year guys are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.

Holdovers:
Lou Whitaker (eligibility guaranteed for 11 rounds)
John Smoltz (eligibility guaranteed for 9 rounds)
Nolan Ryan (eligibility guaranteed for 7 rounds)
Bobby Grich (eligibility guaranteed for 5 rounds)
Craig Biggio (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Edgar Martinez (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Roberto Alomar (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Kenny Lofton (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Jim Palmer (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Eddie Murray (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Ryne Sandberg (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Don Sutton (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)

Everyday Players (born in 1944, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Rusty Staub
Graig Nettles
Mark Belanger
Ed Kranepool
Paul Blair
Sal Bando
Bud Harrelson
Ed Kirkpatrick
Pat Kelly
Del Unser
Freddie Patek
George Scott
Ollie Brown
Tito Fuentes
Manny Sanguillen
Gary Sutherland
John Briggs
Sonny Jackson
Jose Morales
Buddy Bradford
Cito Gaston
Doug Rader
Terry Harmon
Bob Montgomery
Dave Nelson

Pitchers (born in 1944, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Steve Carlton
Joe Niekro
Tom Seaver
Tug McGraw
Stan Bahnsen
Sparky Lyle
Rudy May
Steve Renko
Bill Singer
Dave Roberts
Jim Bibby
Dick Bosman
Denny McLain
Steve Mingori

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Mike

11 years ago

Whoa, this is loaded on pitchers:

Tom Seaver
Steve Carlton
Nolan Ryan

Mike

11 years ago

Whoa, this is loaded on pitchers, Some greats like Sutton that can’t crack the top 3:

Tom Seaver
Steve Carlton
Nolan Ryan

GrandyMan

11 years ago

What a stacked year. Two no-brainers and two more guys who deserve serious consideration.

My initial ballot:

Tom Terrific, Lefty, Ryan Express.

MikeD

11 years ago

Reply to GrandyMan

Yeah, this is an unfair ballot! For the first time in any of my votes, I dropped Alomar. I admit my ballot below includes Nettles not because I view him as one of the three best out of the group,, but I do believe he’s worthy of Hall discussion and perhaps induction, but he will be totally buried in this vote, and unlike the holdovers, he has no built in eligibility for future rounds.

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

Reply to MikeD

Nettles averaged 5.7 WAR over NINE years !
Would not have guessed that.

MikeD

11 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Nor I, although it doesn’t shock me. Nettles was recognized for being a great gloveman, but he nevertheless has remained underrated.

MikeD

11 years ago

Seaver, Ryan, Nettles.

Aidan Mattson

11 years ago

Carlton, Seaver, Murray

David Horwich

11 years ago

Alomar, Sandberg, Seaver

Mostly strategic voting here: I want to try to keep Sandberg on the ballot, & keep Alomar from getting bubbly. Carlton is clearly COG-worthy, but I expect he’ll get plenty of support this round & stands a very good chance of getting elected in one or the other of 1943’s two rounds of voting (depending on which part Morgan ends up on).

e pluribus munu

11 years ago

Just computing the quantity of WAR generated per 9 IP by the seven 200+ winners on the ballot (with ERA+ added as a check), the list order looks like this: Seaver: WAR 106.3; (ERA+ 127); IP 4783; [WAR/9 IP: .200] Smoltz: WAR 66.5; (ERA+ 125); IP 3473; [WAR/9 IP: .172] Palmer: WAR 68.1; (ERA+ 125); IP 3948; [WAR/9 IP: .155] Carlton: WAR 84.1 (ERA+ 115) IP 5218; [WAR/9 IP: .145] Ryan: WAR 83.8; (ERA+ 112); IP 5386; [WAR/9 IP: .140] Sutton: WAR 68.7; (ERA+ 108); IP 5282; [WAR/9 IP: .117] Neikro: WAR 28.7; (ERA+ 98); IP 3584; [WAR/9 IP: .072]… Read more »

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to e pluribus munu

For reference, Rivera’s at .396 by this metric

e pluribus munu

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

That tracks fairly well against Mo’s ERA+ vs. Pedro’s (204 to 154) as #1-2 on that career leaderboard. But just as in the csse of ERA+, there’s an apples to oranges aspect to comparing a starter and a closer here. My thought on WAR/9IP-5G is that it may be a useful metric for starters on the mound and in the field. (I’ve written elsewhere that I’m reluctant to consider RPs and DHs for the CoG, although Mo may be the exception – despite my lifelong animus towards his franchise.)

CursedClevelander

11 years ago

I expect this will be a runaway for Seaver, as it should be, so it’ll be interesting to see how people vote strategically with their 2nd and 3rd choices. Of the other newcomers, Carlton should easily stay on the eligibility list, and I expect Nettles and Bando may get some token support.

Darien

11 years ago

I’m digging in my heels and sticking with Ryan, Biggio, and Lofton. We can’t ALL turn in a three-pitcher ballot!

J.R.

11 years ago

Wow… as a huge Mets fan, I am so tempted to vote Seaver, McGraw, and Kranepool… but I will not.

Seaver, Ryan, Palmer.

elkboy3

11 years ago

Seaver, Carlton, Martinez.

I think the 2nd best pitcher on the ballot is an interesting question…if you replace their innings with a replacement pitcher at an 85 ERA+, Carlton is the clear winner. Replace them with an average pitcher, and Palmer comes out on top.

Fireworks

11 years ago

Tom Terrific. Steady Eddie. Ryno.

Dr. Doom

11 years ago

Tom Seaver
Bobby Grich
Ryne Sandberg

Dr. Doom

11 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Changing…

Dropping Sandberg, adding Steve Carlton. Kinda forgot about how good he was, and I filled out the ballot pre-research. Plus, I’ve been voting Sandberg roughly one million ballots in a row, so I’m thinking that I’ll change. Seaver, Carlton, Grich it is for me.

koma

11 years ago

Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver

JEV

11 years ago

Seaver, Carlton, Biggio

TJay

11 years ago

Wow, what a group of pitchers. In my opinion 6 or 7 worthy of inclusion into COG. That being said:
Seaver, Ryan, Lefty.

Jeff Harris

11 years ago

Carlton, Seaver, Whitaker

aweb

11 years ago

Staying with my general policy of voting for I think is best, and loving long careers. Seaver – one of the top 10 pitchers ever, great peak, still a strong contributor for a decade afterwards. I’m realizing that Ryan, Clemens and R. Johnson have permanently messed up my expectations for mid-30s pitchers – Seaver is proably what the career arc of a great pitcher “should” be expected to look like, in aggregate. Carlton – Best years at age 27, 35, 24, 32 – no particualr peak, but a very good pitcher capable of great years. His hitting value was very… Read more »

11 years ago

Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton and Lou Whitaker (Real tough to choose between Sweet Lou and Bobby Grich!).

Mike HBC

11 years ago

Carlton, Seaver, Ryan. Few votes have been so easy for me.

BryanM

11 years ago

Seaver, Carleton ,sweet Lou. We are getting close to the first group of players I followed passionately as a kid . Lou will likely be my only holdover for the next 15 years as I start voting childhood faves between here and ’32.

Dr. Remulak

11 years ago

Biggio, Seaver, Smoltz.

Chris C

11 years ago

This gets harder every round. I try to always support Biggio and Edgar but I can’t justify not voting for both Seaver and Carlton. I’ll consider a vote change later to keep someone on the ballot though.

Tom Seaver
Steve Carlton
Craig Biggio

Chris C

11 years ago

Reply to Chris C

I just looked at the spreadsheet. My vote wasn’t recorded. Thanks.

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to Chris C

Thanks, Chris — sorry about that. Fixed now.

Chris C

11 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

VOTE CHANGE!
Carlton looks to have safely over 50% of the vote. I still feel the obligation to vote for Seaver though. Changing to try and keep Edgar from losing a year of eligibility.

Final vote:
Tom Seaver
Craig Biggio
Edgar Martinez

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to Chris C

I approve of at least voting for the best guy on the ballot. Clearly the other two votes are inherently strategic in nature this round so nobody can fault anybody but not voting for Seaver to me is dubious.

KalineCountry

11 years ago

Lou Whitaker
Jim Palmer
Tom Seaver

Bix

11 years ago

Carlton, Seaver, Sandberg

mosc

11 years ago

Goodbye Don Sutton, good luck in the redemption round! If you had been born a few years later I’m sure you’d endure this glutton of talent but you have no chance. Seaver (61.2), Carlton (99.1), Palmer (124.1). The aces defined 1970s baseball and you guys know it. The only hard thing here is leaving off Ryan (58.2). The numbers in parenthesis, and my rationale for the 4, is their post season IP. Palmer may not get as much love as the others here (I’d prob pick Ryan over him on a normal basis) and he had great defense no doubt… Read more »

oneblankspace

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

Palmer also had a postseason pinch-running appearance in 1983.

Jeff Hill

11 years ago

Seaver, Ryan, Lofton

Andy

11 years ago

Carlton
Seaver
Ryan

Doug

11 years ago

Carlton, Bando, Nettles

So many deserving players in this group. Seaver looks like the odds-on favorite, so I’m throwing some support for Bando and Nettles, who both finished north of 60 WAR.

Blair (37.9) and Belanger (41.4) also had more WAR than you might think, but had only 3 A-S selections between them.

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

I’d rank Nettles above several guys we’ve got on this ballot for next year but I still don’t think he makes it. The next redemption round will finally bring back somebody who I think will win a round.

brp

11 years ago

The three on the bubble can drop off at this point and I won’t be heartbroken, and everyone else has multiple years left. So:

Seaver
Carlton
Smoltz (just vacillating between Ryan/Palmer/Smoltz, so I’ll vote for Smoltz this round)

Nick Pain

11 years ago

Seaver, Whitaker, Grich

Francisco

11 years ago

New voter:
Ryan, Seaver, Carlton

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to Francisco

Welcome!

Kirk

11 years ago

Carlton, Seaver & Palmer

Joseph

11 years ago

carlton, seaver, Nettles. But there are too many great players on this list that won’t make it now–it ends up penalizing players who were born the same year as other great players. Nettles was an amazing player and always overlooked and underrated in these discussions. He was the rare player who added a lot both offensively and defensively. 390 HRs. He was one of a handful of players who had a career with dWar >20 and oWar over 50. There are 25 seasons by a 3rd baseman with RField >20 and HR >20–Nettles has 4–which is more than anyone. Perhaps… Read more »

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to Joseph

“There are 25 seasons by a 3rd baseman with RField >20 and HR >20–Nettles has 4–which is more than anyone.”

It’s not just 3rd basemen. Across all positions, only Nettles, Andruw Jones, and Cal Ripken have 4 seasons with 20 fielding runs and 20 HR or more. No one has five such seasons.

Carlos Gomez of the Brew Crew is one HR shy of qualifying for this list in 2013: 19 HR, 34 Rfield.

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

Nettles’ reputation was severely damaged by his .248 BA. Had he hit for a higher average (.270-.280) with less power and the same OPS, he certainly would have received more HOF support.

Personally, I best remember Nettles for these plays in the ’78 World Series:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uid-nqb9SAU

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to Ed

Maybe a tad more HOF support for Nettles if he had hit .270, but nowhere near enough to get him into the Hall. Buddy Bell hit .279 for his career, has almost the same exact numbers as Nettles, but got less than 2% of HOF support in his one year on the ballot. No postseason whatsoever for Bell, so therein probably lies the slightly higher perception of Nettles over Buddy. The regular season numbers for Bell and Nettles are eerily similar: Buddy Bell: 109 OPS+, 107 Rbat, 174 Rfield, 65.9 WAR Gr Nettles: 110 OPS+, 101 Rbat, 140 Rfield, 68.0… Read more »

Joseph

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

I think it’s the HRs that get Nettles more support: 390 to 202. I suggest this because I can only find two Non-HOF players with HR > 375 and WAR > 60 from the non-PED era: Nettles and Dwight Evans. Even if you look for HR > 350 and WAR >50 there are only a few who aren’t in the hall, and finished before the steroid era. Wasn’t it Ralph Kiner who said something about home run hitters driving Cadillacs and singles hitters driving Chevies? (Of course, that was in the ’50’s–now all MLB players can afford Caddys). I do… Read more »

David Horwich

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

Joseph @ 49 –

Kiner’s line was, “Home run hitters drive Cadillacs. Singles hitters drive Fords.”

The quote is often attributed to Kiner himself, although according to:

http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/b65aaec9

it was a teammate, Fritz Ostermuller, who said it.

Jeff Hill

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

Is Andruw Jones A HOF player?

Brent

11 years ago

Shout out to Freddie Patek and Steve Mingori.

My votes are for Seaver, Carlton and Palmer. I will be back to middle infielders next year, I am sure.

--bill

11 years ago

Seaver, Carlton, Sutton

Editor

Bryan O'Connor

11 years ago

Most Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasons:

Seaver 67.4
Carlton 46.7
Grich 43.6
Whitaker 42.7
Martinez 41.3
Smoltz 40.1
Lofton 39.3
Ryan 39.1
Sandberg 38.8
Alomar 36.8
Biggio 36.3
Palmer 36.0
Nettles 35.6
Bando 35.5
Murray 34.9
Sutton 28.0

First time in a long time that I haven’t seen John Smoltz as the best pitcher on the ballot. I’ll give him a one-round rest and stick with the best hitter on the ballot after the obvious two.

Seaver, Carlton, Edgar

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

Carlton vs Ryan:

329
324

3.22
3.19

55
61

1.247
1.247 !

84.1
83.8

latefortheparty

11 years ago

Another loaded ballot.

Tom Seaver
Steve Carlton
Bobby Grich

opal611

11 years ago

For the 1944 election, I’m voting for:
-Nolan Ryan
-Ryne Sandberg
-Don Sutton

Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Alomar (Voted for Previously. Hopefully only temporarily off my ballot.)
-Biggio (Voted for Previously. Hopefully only temporarily off my ballot.)
-Martinez (Voted for Previously. Hopefully only temporarily off my ballot.)
-Smoltz
-Whitaker
-Murray
-Grich
-Lofton
-Palmer
-Seaver
-Carlton
-Nettles

Joel

11 years ago

Ryan
Carlton
Seaver

11 years ago

Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, Edgar Martinez

11 years ago

Reply to wx

Wow, putting Martinez’ name next to those two just looks so wrong…

Andrew Daly

11 years ago

Reply to wx

@Wx why does Martinez look wrong next to them he has one of the greatest, if not the greatest, pitching seasons of all time along with many other great years and a World Series title.

David Horwich

11 years ago

Reply to Andrew Daly

Because this is Edgar Martinez, not Pedro.

T-Bone

11 years ago

Sandberg
Seaver
Ryan

RonG

11 years ago

Carlton, Seaver, Ryan

Arsen

11 years ago

Seaver, Carlton, Palmer

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

___________

So many great players to choose from here.
I’ve got to adhere to a methodology.
How about – one pitcher, one IF, one OF:

________

Seaver
Nettles
Lofton

Gary Bateman

11 years ago

Seaver, Carlton, Alomar

Artie Z.

11 years ago

Seaver, Carlton, Murray

Mike L

11 years ago

Seaver, Palmer, Sandberg. I feel strongly that Seaver is the best of the big three (Seaver/Carlton/Ryan) and prefer to not dilute that vote. Instead, I’ll boost a couple of players on the bubble.