Alfonso Soriano: enigmatized

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Some of our regular readers were commenting recently on the uniqueness of Alphonso Soriano. Their view was that it is difficult to really describe the type of player that he is since there are so few similar players to compare him to.

That got me thinking about how that uniqueness might best be described. As our commenters knew so well, it’s not easy. Soriano’s like a lot of players, in certain ways, but quite unlike them in others.

After the jump, some thoughts on the enigma that is Alfonso.

For this analysis, I’ve focused on offense as the attribute of Soriano’s game that has been most highly valued. Looking at Soriano’s career milestones, I settled on a control group of the 37 players (including Soriano) with 400 career HR and 400 career doubles. While nearly all of those players are clearly better than Alfonso, I thought it would be fun to see the parts of Soriano’s game that are most similar to particular members of that group. In the comparisons that follow, unless otherwise noted, I am referencing that control group.

Runs

Soriano neither scores nor drives in many runs for a player with his power credentials. Among the control group, Soriano is one of only four with fewer than 1 RBI per 7 PA and also fewer than 1 Run per 7 PA. The others are Cal Ripken, Carl Yastrzemski and Billy Williams.
Soriano is equally likely to score a run as drive one in. Though his RBI and Run production are near the bottom of the group, having nearly identical RBI and Run totals puts Soriano among some elite company: Yaz again plus Mel Ott, Stan Musial, Frank Robinson, Jeff Bagwell and Chipper Jones; the only players in the control group with career Runs > 98% of RBI and also career RBI > 98% of Runs.

Speed and Baserunning

Among our control group, Soriano is one of 11 with 200 steals, but of those 11, one of only 3 with triples amounting to less than 11% of steals. The others are A-Rod and Gary Sheffield.
Soriano has the 8th highest WAR Baserunning Runs (both absolute, and per PA) in the control group but, among the 11 players with 200+ steals, his WAR Baserunning Runs ranks ahead of only Sheffield, Andre Dawson and Reggie Jackson.

On Base Percentage

Soriano’s 0.321 career on-base percentage is the lowest in the control group, one of only 4 players (with Cal Ripken, Ernie Banks and Andre Dawson) below the .350 level.
Even adding in Soriano’s stolen bases, his Secondary Average is still only 30th of 37 in the control group. Of those below Soriano, only Dawson and Dave Winfield have 200+ stolen bases. Soriano, Dawson and Winfield are also lowest in Total Average scores for those with 200 steals.
Soriano and a young Alex Rodriguez (1998) are the only players in the control group with a qualifying season accumulating less than 1.5 points of batting average per hit. Soriano did it in consecutive seasons (2002-03). His 2002 season with 209 hits is second only to Jimmy Rollin‘s 212 hits in 2007 for most hits by a player batting .300 or less.

Slugging

To show how strong the control group is, Soriano’s .504 SLG ranks only 28th of 37. Soriano’s .272/.321/.504 slash is almost identical to Ernie Banks with .274/.330/.500 .
Soriano and Ernie Banks are the only players in the group whose career SLG percentage comprises over 60% of their career OPS.

Whiffing but not Walking

Soriano and Reggie Jackson are the only players in the group with a Strikeout to RBI ratio of more than 3:2. Those two are among only 11 players with 8000 PA and the same 3:2 strikeout to RBI ratio.
Soriano has the highest strikeout to walk ratio in the control group, at 3.57:1. Only 4 other players with over 5000 PAs have a ratio above 3.55:1 – Jose Hernandez, Tony Armas, Shawon Dunston, and Alex Gonzalez.
Among the control group, Soriano’s strikeout rate of one per 4.7 PA is fourth highest, behind only Jim Thome, Reggie Jackson and Willie Stargell.
Among the control group, Soriano’s walk rate of one per 16.9 PA is second lowest, ahead of only Andre Dawson at one per 18.3 PA

Defense

Soriano is one of just 4 players to accumulate negative WAR Fielding Runs at a rate of more than 1 per 110 PA. The other three are Jason Giambi, Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield

As I trust is apparent form the foregoing, Soriano’s presence in the control group is very much on the fringe. This is further evidenced by his career WAR, 2nd lowest and only slightly ahead of Paul Konerko, another recent inductee to the club.

So, who is Soriano most similar to? There are a number of names that have cropped up more often than others, among them Andre Dawson, Gary Sheffield, Reggie Jackson and Dave Winfield. Soriano’s most similar player shows up as Matt Williams, though with a low 899 similarity score. Lee May is another comparable hitter but both he and Williams were leadfoots compared to Soriano.

Enough fence-sitting, you say. Strictly on raw numbers, I’m going with Andre Dawson from the control group. Take a look.

		G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Andre Dawson		2627	10769	1373	2774	503	98	438	1591	314	109	589	1509	.279	.323	.482	.806	119
Alfonso Soriano		1896	8111	1126	2035	463	31	404	1133	288	83	480	1715	.272	.321	.504	.825	113

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/14/2013.

Same sort of impatient hitter who strikes out a lot, especially relative to walks (though, in that respect, Soriano is really in a class by himself). Similar slash and OPS+. Similar stolen bases.

But, of course, it’s not really about raw numbers.

		G	PA	Rbat	Rbaser	Rdp	Rfield	Rpos	RAA	WAA	Rrep	RAR	WAR	waaWL%	162WL%	oWAR	dWAR	oRAR
Andre Dawson		2627	10769	232	14	6	70	-65	257	28.8	357	614	64.4	.511	.511	54.5	0.9	543
Alfonso Soriano		1896	8111	117	13	2	-74	-25	33	2.9	266	300	28.4	.502	.502	35.5	-10.1	374

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/14/2013.

Dawson played in a lower run-scoring environment and played his prime in a tougher hitters’ park. And even though dWAR does Dawson no favors (based on my observational estimation), he is still far and away Soriano’s superior. Bottom line, Dawson was basically worth two Sorianos and more.

So, there you have it. Soriano’s enigmatic status is fully justified. As Howard Cosell might have said, he IS the ONE, the ONLY, Alfonso.

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PaulE

11 years ago

Doug,
The Hawk don’t walk and, therefore, is probably the right guy from this group. I don’t believe Soriano will get the additional 2,500 PAs to match Dawson.
Perhaps the 250 SB/250 HR group would provide an even better comp? Reggie Sanders? Too many walks…Steve Finley? Too much defense….

MikeD

11 years ago

If only Soriano had even a bit more plate discipline. He’s had a fine career, yet he’d be having a HOF-caliber career is he could just stay away from the breaking ball down and away.

I wonder if that is also what makes him unique. How many players who walk so little have continued to be productive hitters well into their post 35+ years?

AlbaNate

11 years ago

One way that I judge a player’s uniqueness is by how low the highest similarity score that player has on bbref.com. Soriano’s 899 with Matt Williams is pretty low, which makes sense for a player as unusual as Soriano. Don’t know if there’s a way to do a search for the lowest highest similarity score, but the lowest I’ve seen is Pete Rose, whose closest comp. is Paul Molitor at 678.

MikeD

11 years ago

Reply to AlbaNate

I can see more of a “similarity” between Molitor and Rose than I can in Williams and Soriano.

no statistician but

11 years ago

To me Soriano is one of the kings of empty stats. Players like him are one of the reasons I remain skeptical of WAR and other formulaic measures as replacements for good judgment and applied intelligence. The fact that B-Ref allots him 374 career RAR, for instance, is, to my mind, a classic case of meaningless twaddle. The truth is, over the long haul of a season, season after season, he has had little or no impact on the success of his current team. If a replacement were to have been brought in, the team would have done no worse.… Read more »

Darien

11 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

The 2005 Nationals are one of the more well-known “way over their heads” teams, though; check out that bullpen full of nobody ( http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/WSN/2005-pitching.shtml ) all having amazing career years, not to mention two hundred innings of 130 ERA+ from John Patterson. Nobody on that team but Nick Johnson hit a lick; adding Soriano *did* bolster the offense, but his presence was basically entirely offset by Jose Guillen going from “pretty good” to “black hole” in right. Meanwhile, the bullpen returned to earth and the rotation completely collapsed. That’s the story of the 2005-2006 Nationals: pitching. Blaming Alfonso Soriano for… Read more »

MikeD

11 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

nsb, that’s a bit of an odd way to assess his value. You’re divorcing the rest of the team from the equation! : -)

Jacob

11 years ago

I love the headline. The big enigma, to me, is this: how can a player who swings at bad pitches that much muster 400+ big league HRs? He isn’t the king of empty stats, he is the King of Having a Somewhat Productive Career with Horrible Plate Discipline.

In that sense, isn’t he a bit like recently retired Vlad Guerrero? Poor plate discipline, takes too much chances on the bases, but still survives because he can drive balls a foot out of the strike zone.

Remember this one?

Darien

11 years ago

Reply to Jacob

If anybody, he reminds me (at the plate) of Juan Uribe — they both hit the ball hard, but not very often, and have a horrible case of baseonballsophobia.

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to Jacob

That’s not fair to Gurrero who had a lot more plate coverage and bat speed than Soriano. Yes, they both swung out of the strike zone a lot but Gurrero was just plain better at it. Gurrero also had a rocket launcher for an arm where Soriano’s arm strength is below average.

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

Sorry, I want to expand on that. Gurrero was perhaps the game’s all time best “good pitch” hitter, or “bad ball” hitter if you prefer. More than anybody in the history of the game he could drive a ball that was exactly where the pitcher wanted to put it. He wasn’t a mistake hitter as much as a guy with unusually good coverage. He took areas away from the pitcher which was very difficult for many control guys. A freak of bat speed even from a variety of angles, his swing was completely unique. Soriano’s just a free swinging impatient… Read more »

paget

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

Completely agree with you about Guerrero. One of the great right-handed hitters of his generation. It’s worth remembering too that in a period where power hitters were/are routinely striking out 150 times a year or more, Guerrero not only struck out MUCH less frequently, but would frequently also walk more than he struck out. That’s exceptional given his era (and very much a marker of my favorite hitters). I might quibble with you on one point though: best good pitch/bad ball hitter of all time? Yogi Berra. (Actually, it’s interesting, the ways in which you describe Guerrero – freakish bat… Read more »

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to paget

I think of Berra more similar to Cabrera’s type of plate coverage. The type that takes away all advantages from pitching inside. Gurrero’s lateral coverage was not that spectacular, he could just hit balls with authority from above and below the strike zone. Considering his height, and Berra’s lack of height, I think that’s more in Gurrero’s favor.

brp

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

Guerrero was also leagues above Soriano in terms of outfield defense before his body fell apart.

Jimbo

11 years ago

And to add to the weirdness of his career, he all of a sudden became 2 years older partway through his career. And was involved in the Arod trade. And eventually came back to the Yankees. And came 1 home run away from being the only 2 time 40/40 man. And had a career split between 2b and left field, a pretty odd combination of positions.

Jacob

11 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

Great points. I know a lot of thinking fans can’t stand him, but I’ve thoroughly enjoyed his career.

Mike L

11 years ago

To nsb’s comment @5, there’s a tendency to be too hard on Soriano, in part because of his enormous contract, in part because he plateaued early and then regressed, and in part because he makes us crazy. As a 26/27 year old with the Yankees, he appeared to me a major star in the making. In 2002 he finished 3rd in MVP balloting. When he was traded for A-Rod I thought it was a mistake. Obviously, not because he was A-Rod’s equal but because I expected some maturation and growth and I didn’t think bringing in the all-time leader in… Read more »

no statistician but

11 years ago

Reply to Mike L

Mike L:

My point @5 is just that. Soriano does some stuff exceptionally well, but in fact he is a cipher in terms of impact most of the time because of what he doesn’t do. His early years with the Yankees may or may not be an exception. Hard to evaluate with that much other talent in the lineup.

Wine Curmudgeon

11 years ago

Reply to Mike L

He also drives us nuts because he always seems to be swinging at the first three pitches he sees (usually three curve balls in the dirt) with runners on base in a close game.

It’s funny. I could put up with Dave Kingman, who was the pre-Soriano Soriano, and accept his limitations, but Soriano makes me crazy.

bstar

11 years ago

If I had to pick one player from the control group that was most similar to Soriano, it would be Konerko.

Yeah, I know the speed doesn’t work, but their career values are pretty similar. In fact they’re almost identical.

Phil

11 years ago

Soriano reminds me a little bit of Juan Samuel at the beginning of his career. If Samuel had played in the ’00s instead of the mostly low-offense ’80s, I suspect he would have had SB and HR totals generally in line with Soriano’s. Also, Samuel was just as puzzling; Bill James wrote that great Walter Matthau-inspired thing on Samuel in one of the Abstracts, which basically amounted to “talented player, but what are you supposed to do with him?”

AlbaNate

11 years ago

Reply to Phil

Just checked out Samuel’s page on bbref.com, and that guy must have the world record–for uniform numbers! Seriously–eight different numbers for his career: 7,8,9,10,11,16,17,and 27.

11 years ago

Reply to AlbaNate

Matt Stairs, Matt Stairs, Matt Stairs.

3, 11, 12, 16, 24, 25, 30, 35, 59.

Richard Chester

11 years ago

Reply to AlbaNate

Bobo Newsom has him beaten by a mile–13 different numbers if I have counted correctly.

e pluribus munu

11 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Bobo sets the standard. And using numbers alone doesn’t do him full justice, since he used identical numbers on different teams, or on the same team in multiple visits. For example, Bobo #12 could be: Bobo on the 1936-37 Senators Bobo on the ’37 Red Sox Bobo on the ’38-’39 Browns Bobo on the ’39-’41 Tigers Bobo back on the Senators in ’42 Bobo returning to the Senators in ’52 But Bobo on the Browns, apart from being #12 in ’38-’39, was #24 in ’34-’35, #15 in ’43, and also #33 in ’43; and Bobo on the Senators was not… Read more »

ReliefMan

11 years ago

Reply to AlbaNate

Livan Hernandez has worn the same number for 9 different teams. That almost certainly has to be a record.

Richard Chester

11 years ago

Reply to ReliefMan

Terry Mulholland has worn #45 for ten different teams.

Luis Gomez

11 years ago

Reply to AlbaNate

Ruben Sierra: 3, 14, 16, 21 (6 different times), 22, 24 (twice), 25, 28 (twice), 29, 38, 44, 47.

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to Luis Gomez

Similar to Mike Morgan: 12, 14, 15, 16, 30 (twice), 31, 35, 36 (six times), 38, 39, 63.

Joe

11 years ago

“Soriano and a young Alex Rodriguez (1998) are the only players in the control group with a qualifying season accumulating less than 1.5 points of batting average per hit. Soriano did it in consecutive seasons (2002-03). ”

Doesn’t this just mean they were the only ones with 667 or more AB in a season?

Author

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to Joe

Indeed it does.

And, to get that may AB, you’re not getting many walks (usually), which is what I was getting at. Just thought this might be a way to visualize that.

BTW, I said usually because there have been two players to combine 667+ AB with 65+ walks. Those two each did it twice – Pete Rose and Jose Reyes.

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