Miguel Cabrera Rewrites History

A season ago Detroit Tigers’ slugger Miguel Cabrera became the first player in 45 years to lead his league in batting average, home runs, and RBI, which earned him a historic Triple Crown. As an encore, the Tigers’ 3rd baseman decided he was going to be even better. With yet another multi-hit, multi-RBI game on Sunday, the Cabrera joined Jimmie Foxx and Babe Ruth as the only players in major league history with at least 120 RBIs, 40 home runs and a .350 average in their first 116 games of a season. That’s some pretty exclusive company that Cabrera’s rubbing elbows with and barring an absolutely massive upset, his efforts should lead to a 2nd straight MVP award.

But how did we get to this point? Even dating back to his days as a Florida Marlin, it’s fairly obvious that the potential for greatness was always there, so what unlocked it? How was Miguel Cabrera able to go from perennial All-Star to best hitter alive?

Equal Opportunity Hitter

Let’s pretend, just for a second, that you’re on the mound against Miguel Cabrera. How would you attack him? Do you opt for your best pitch, a blazing fastball, in an effort to fight power with power? Well, that’s not going to work because Miggy because he’s hitting .400 with 25 homers against heaters this year.

How about trying to fool Cabrera with a change-up? Unfortunately for you, that’s not a good idea either because the reigning MVP has gone 15-41 against those pitches with 5 homers to boot.

So the curveball has to be your best option then, but that quickly becomes unappetizing once you realize Cabrera’s hit .316 against the deuce in 2013.

Hell, even if you have one of the greatest single pitches in the history of baseball, it may not make a difference. Miguel Cabrera was able to take the greatest closer of all-time and his world-famous cutter deep twice just a couple of weekends ago.

“As a pitcher or a catcher, you’ll see a certain swing from him and think, O.K., maybe I can go there again,” said Matt Wieters, catcher for the Baltimore Orioles.  “But then he makes the adjustment. You have to adjust before he does. A pitch that worked once against him probably won’t work again.”

An Aggressively Intelligent Approach

Throughout the course of his career, Miguel Cabrera has gradually improved his plate discipline, which has led to fewer whiffs and more walks. That much is obvious to anyone with a pair of working eyes. The powerful Tigers’ walk rate has nearly doubled over the course of his career and that’s a normal part of the maturation process for a big leaguer.

What comes as more of a surprise is that Cabrera’s aggressive approach early in the count has never really changed. He was a good, aggressive first pitch hitter at the start of his career in Florida and that approach has carried over in a big way since coming to Detroit. For the season, Cabrera is hitting .487 with 12 homers and 34 RBI on the first offering and no other player in baseball, apart from Chris Davis, is even close to matching that production.

Most importantly, this aggressiveness on the first pitch hasn’t hurt Cabrera at the plate because he rarely chases bad pitches out of the zone. His discipline is absolutely amazing.

Inside Man

The wonderful Jeff Sullivan from Fangraphs posted a fascinating piece this past week and this was his conclusion:

“Throw a pitch somewhere in or near the zone, and Miguel Cabrera might hit it out. In every part of the zone, he’s one of the best hitters in baseball. Throw him inside and he’s one of the best hitters in baseball history. Other players have hit inside pitches out, but to be able to do it so consistently, and to still be able to adjust to pitches up or away — there’s a lot that goes into being amazing, even if, for Cabrera, it’s never seemed easier.”

And when you dig into the data it completely backs up the point Sullivan makes in his post. Check out his zone chart, provided by Brooks Baseball:

plot_h_profile

On pitches that end up too far inside to be considered strikes Cabrera is hitting .394 with 8 home runs. That’s downright absurd and it essentially takes an entire half of the plate away from a pitcher. This isn’t exactly a new trend either. Since zone data became available in 2007, Miguel Cabrera has hit .312 on pitches that are considered too far inside to be strikes in a full season’s worth of at-bats (557 to be exact). That alone is evidence enough of Cabrera’s all-world bat speed.

—————————

There have been just 11 seasons in baseball history in which a player hit at least .350 with 45+ homers and 140+ runs driven in and none of those spectacular seasons occurred after the Allies’ victory in World War II. If Miguel Cabrera can sustain his current pace he should blast by those power numbers by the middle of September, even if he cools off a bit. We haven’t seen anyone hit a baseball like this in 80 years. Cherish it while you can folks, because it may be another 80 years until we see it again.

Big thanks to Brooks Baseball, Fangraphs, and Baseball-Reference for the statistical help!

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Steven Page
Steven Page
11 years ago

Wow! That chart is unbelievable. It looks like your only hope against Cabrera is the outside “semi-intentional walk”. You may get him out, or at least hold him to one base. The strike zone looks like batting practice results…..

Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  Steven Page

That .529 on pitches on the inner half and below the strike zone is remarkable. Those are a lot of diving split-fingers and curves that he’s launching as if he was on a driving range.

If I’m the catcher, I’m going to try to get ahead with a high strike, then follow the standard approach – go low and away and up and in. Problem is, there aren’t a lot of pitchers who can get away with throwing high strikes, especially if they’re behind in the count.

mosc
mosc
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

That’s my take on Cabrera. He’s very human, he has strengths and weaknesses like everybody else. That said, his strengths are the hardest to work around. You throw soft away and cheese up high. Textbook stuff but that’s no extra easy way to work either. You can say “Pitch him the hell away, make him take it to right field” but he does that like a friggin right handed ichiro with patience. You have cut his power, but you’re going to give up plenty of hits and when you miss it’s either a gopher ball over the middle or a… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
11 years ago
Reply to  Steven Page

Given his nearly .700 SLG this year and 120 RBIs, it might actually be time to start thinking about walking the man very frequently, especially in crucial situations. What the hell, how about every time up? Back of envelope calc, using BR.com stats: MC has 522 PA, with 160 hits for 306 TB, and 76 BB/HBP. TBs don’t include BB/HBP, so if we add those (call em TB.2), that’s 382 TB.2s in 522 PAs. If teams had IBB’ed him every time this year, that would be 522-382 = 140 more times on base, but always on first only. That’s a… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

I remember reading a study ages ago about what theoretically would happen if you walked Babe Ruth-in-his-prime (1920, 1921, or 1923) on an average team, literally every single time he came up that year.

The conclusion is that it would lead to a lot more runs being scored than just pitching to him for his actual number of AB’s. Plus, you get some bizare Triple Crown lines, such as a .262 BA, 9 HR, and 151 RBI.

brp
brp
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

The Babe Ruth scenario was outlined in the BJNHBA.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

@24/brp,

Thanks. What page(s)?

Jim Bouldin
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Hey what’s so problematic about putting somebody on base a guaranteed 4-6 times per game? 🙂

Of course the, ahem, small factor I forgot to work in there was the outs sacrificed by the opposition by so doing. But that’s only because I ran out of room on my envelope.

This is certainly going to require much more extensive and serious simulation analysis. And simulation requires beer, always has, always will.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

@20 The issue of walking a man every time he came to bat got me thinking. First I did an analysis involving the live ball years only. Using data from BR I calculated the average PA/game and R/game for the five maximum values of PA. The results were 39.30 PA and 5.19 R. I made a similar calculation for the five lowest values of PA and came up with 37.58 PA and 3.76 R. That makes a difference of 1.72 PA and 1.43 R or an additional .83 R/PA. I did another calculation involving the entire range of years, 1871-2012.… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
11 years ago

Richard, No it doesn’t mean that. The reason is that, regardless of whether or not you use live-ball era data only or data to 1871, you can’t use the difference in the rates of runs per appearance (R/PA) from the lowest and highest performing five teams (PA-wise), to compute an expected R value as a function of PA. You have to instead use the rate for either of those two groups, applied only to those same groups. Just using the live ball data for example, the two R/PA rates are 5.19/39.30 and 3.76/37.58, or 0.132 and 0.100 respectively, so the… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

@37 Jim: Thanks for the response but I am of the opinion that it would be more accurate if one used an R/base runner ratio rather than an R/PA ratio. Doing it that way sorts out the outs, which do not provide runs. I selected 1953 as the basis for another analysis because the PA per game of that year, 38.48, is very close to the live-ball era average. The number of runs that year was 4.61 per game. Using the R/PA method shows an average of 4.61/38.48 = .120 R/PA. With 3 additional PA that translates to (.120)(38.48 +… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

@30/Richard, In the deadball era and especially the 19th century, errors (and defensive misplays that were not scored as errors) accounted for a high % of the runs scored. This tendency gets more pronounced the further you go back in MLB history. To take the most extreme case, in the National Associaton (1871-75) R/G ranged from 10.47 R/G to 6.14 R/G, with BA/OBA/SLG slash lines that looked downright anemic. For example, 1874: 7.48 R/G, on .273/.282/.333 I’m gussing that if you factored in the ‘reached on error’, that OBA is a lot higher than .282. That’s nearly TWO runs a… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
11 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

hmmm, that oughta instead read: “…140 more TB.2s, but always limiting him to first base only”

Tmckelv
Tmckelv
11 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

I think if you walked him only in certain situations (specific run/out combos) it could be effective.

1) anytime 1st base is open (except bases empty and 0 out)
2) anytime there are 2 outs (maybe even with bases loaded)
3) pray for rain

aweb
aweb
11 years ago

Amazingly, this is already his best oWAR for a season – on pace for 10 oWAR, a pretty rare threshold (a quick look shows Pujols and Aaron never made it). Does he get the “Bonds” treatment if he keeps this up? As Bonds found out, it’s tough to get the triple crown stats if you’re walked 1/4 of the time. This will be 11/11 years that Cabrera gets MVP votes (although why he got them as a 20 year old who played 87 games around league average it’s hard to tell). Not sure what the record is for overall consecutive… Read more »

aweb
aweb
11 years ago
Reply to  aweb

Of course, a quick look shows Pujols got MVP votes 12/12 to start…

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  aweb

If you don’t count a cup of coffee as his first official season and also a year lost to the war, Stan Musial had 16 straight seasons getting MVP votes to start his career.

PP
PP
10 years ago
Reply to  bstar

The Man’s cup of coffee was 20 for 47 in 12 games. 500/533/731 after 8 games before he went into a bit of a slump!

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
11 years ago
Reply to  aweb

Cabrera received 3 points in the 2003 NL MVP voting, which means it was 3 10th place votes, a 9th and a 10th, or an 8th place vote. It’s not like he had a lot of support – someone basically just threw him a bone.

He was the new kid on the block, and the Marlins were 35-39 when he made his debut – they would finish at 91-71 winning the wild card spot. So he probably got some credit for that from a voter.

Jameson
Jameson
11 years ago
Reply to  Artie Z.

The Marlins also won the W.S. that year. Cabrera hit 4 postseason homers. Not that voters are supposed to consider the postseason…

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Jameson

When Cabrera debuted in the majors in 2003, the Marlins were 35-39, the 12th-best record in the 16-team NL. His first game, he hit a walk-off homer in the bottom of the 11th. From his debut on, the Marlins’ record that season was 56-32, best in the NL over that period. None of that is a basis in itself to vote for a guy for MVP, but it could explain a shout-out type vote lower down the ballot.

nightfly
11 years ago
Reply to  aweb

In the earliest years of the MVP award, players were only eligible once per career, so a lot of pre-WW2 stars won’t have a long list of finishes like modern players. Babe Ruth only won once each, for example, and didn’t get votes again until the rules were changed in the 30’s.

Phil
11 years ago

DiMaggio got MVP votes his first 12 years too (with a three-year war gap in there…the other kind of war)—all but two were Top 10. He would have ended his career a perfect 13-13, but he didn’t draw any votes in 1951.

Phil
11 years ago

Thought I’d better check his rival.

Williams got votes his first 10 years (same three-year gap as DiMaggio). In 1952, he went to bat 12 times and did not draw any votes. In 1953, he went to bat 110 times, and he got one point in MVP voting. For the rest of his career, seven seasons, he got votes every year. So over the course of his career, he drew votes every season except for the one where he batted 12 times.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago

Yeah, but he’s 3-32 on balls down and away.
Just throw it there.
I’d erase him daily with my 45 mph palm ball.

Jonas Gumby
Jonas Gumby
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

That’s what I was thinking! Man, MLB pitchers are stupid…

I couldn’t find the video, but there’s a great at-bat several years ago when Cabrera swung at an intentional-walk ball and stroked it for an RBI single to right center.

Jonas Gumby
Jonas Gumby
11 years ago
Reply to  Jonas Gumby

I found the vid, but it wouldn’t let me post it here for some reason

Jacob
Jacob
11 years ago
Reply to  Phil

Thanks for posting – hilarious and I was thinking about that play the other day.

Jonas Gumby
Jonas Gumby
11 years ago
Reply to  Phil

Thanks for the assist, Phil

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  Phil

Excellent.
Didnt realize that MLB has a youtube page.
Here’s Mattingly eating a kid’s popcorn:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvSmfyRc3pM

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Phil

Here’s Al Gionfriddo’s catch off Joe D. in the 1947 WS. The headline says he robbed Joe of a homer but it looks to me like the ball would have bounced into the visitor’s bullpen.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2aSI0u7F3A

Luis Gomez
Luis Gomez
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Ha ha ha! That was really funny, Voomo. Nothing like a good laughter after a day´s work. Thanks, man.

chasfh
chasfh
11 years ago

Or else it will be another year until we see it again.

Mike L
Mike L
11 years ago

Can I suggest to people a Ted Williams John Underwood story about hitting in the July 8, 1968. Really terrific. It’s from SI’s vault (and, reminding people of my age, I remember it from childhood)

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1081357/index.htm

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

@14/Mike L,

Underwood also co-authored (“as told to”) Ted Williams’ classic 1969 biography, “My Turn A Bat”.

Doug
Doug
11 years ago

Another thing to watch for is whether Cabrera and Chris Davis both get to 150 RBI. If so, will be only the 3rd time two or more AL players have made that mark when none of them were named Ruth, Gehrig or Foxx (or Ruth, Gehrig or Simmons, if your prefer). The earlier two times: Ted Williams and Vern Stephens (both on the Red Sox) in 1949; and Albert Belle and Juan Gonzalez in 1998. Two NL players with 150 RBI has happened only twice, in 1929 and 1930. Sammy Sosa joined Belle and Gonzalez with 150 RBI in 1998,… Read more »

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Bobby Doerr also drove in 109 runs for the 1949 Red Sox. Four guys scored 110+, paced by the Splinter’s 150. Five guys who started 79% of their games had ERA+ figures between 109 and 158.

They missed the postseason.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago

Cabrera has missed eight games so far this year. If he plays every game the rest of the season, he will have 154 games played, making comparison easier to the pre-1961 great seasons referred to in many comparisons.

His Adjusted Batting Wins would project to about 8.5, just outside the all-time Top 20. OPS+ of 204 would be just outside the all-time Top 40. Obviously incredible, but not quite on the level as the best years of Ruth/ Hornsby/ Gehrig/ Williams/ Mantle/ Bonds.

Paul E
Paul E
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Lawrence,
However, Cabrera’s 204 OPS+ would break Dick Allen’s single-season record for a 30 year old (199 OPS+ in 1972) in the live-ball era. I can’t count Jason Giambi’s 199 in 2001 since it was probably under the influence of Tiger Testicles or some other testosterone-augmenting substance 🙁

Phil
11 years ago

Something I like about HHH: we marvel at Trout, we marvel at Cabrera, and there isn’t this great need to use one to club the other over the head (or, more accurately, use one to club fans of the other over the head).

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Phil

Ur a idiot. East coast bias! Cabrera’s defence sux.

Agreed. I don’t know of a better forum for reasoned baseball discourse.

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