Buc-ing a trend – the end of the streak

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They teased us last year, but this time it’s finally going to happen. Yes, barring an almost complete collapse, the Pittsburgh Pirates will indeed break the longest streak of futility in the history of the majors. Twenty seasons of losing baseball are coming to an end in the Steel City, and it could be official as early as Labor Day.

The last Pirates team to win more than it lost was back in 1992. How long ago was that? Consider:

Barry Bonds and Andy Van Slyke were manning the Pirate outfield
Miguel Batista debuted for Pittsburgh (he is the only player to appear that season who is still “active”)
there were only two divisions in each league (and nary a wildcard to be found)
the World Series had never been played outside the USA (although that was about to change)
ballparks weren’t named after corporations
Nationals, Rockies, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Rays (deviled or plain)? Never heard of ’em.
11 players would strike out at least 125 times (more have already done so in 2013)

More on the end of an era after the jump.

Though no team has gone as many years without a season in the black, the Pirates have far from the worst franchise record in any 20 year span. Here are those team records (since 1901), as well as various longest streaks.

[table id=147 /]

In addition to the Pirates, this year’s Royals’ squad has a chance to stop a record run of sub .500 seasons. Not only is Kansas City riding a string of 9 sub .500 seasons, in each of those years they have established (or equaled) a new 20 year winning percentage low. Going the other way are the Toronto Blue Jays; when this season is over, they will have set a new record low 20 year winning percentage (though that low will still be the best of all 30 franchises).

So, what have the Pirates been doing differently this season? With the caveat that these results are subject to change by season’s end, here is a sampling of accomplishments so far in 2013 that were NOT achieved in any of the preceding twenty seasons.

five qualified players with 110 OPS+ (Alvarez, Marte, Martin, McCutchen, Walker)
four qualified position players with 2+ WAR (Marte, Martin, McCutchen, Walker)
two outfielders with 3+ WAR (Marte, McCutchen)
two pitchers with 115 qualifying ERA+ (A.J. Burnett, Jeff Locke)
two qualified pitchers with H/9 under 8 (same)
two qualified pitchers with HR/9 under 0.6 (same)
five players with 5+ WAR fielding runs (Barmes, Marte, Martin, McCutchen, Walker)

For team defense, since Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) was first measured in 2003, this is the first Pirate team to reach 30 DRS, and with still a fifth of the season left to play. In addition, this is the 3rd straight season that Pittsburgh has had a closer with 30 saves, a first for the Pirates.

All of this points to a team in its prime. The Pirates have just one position regular over age 30 (Garrett Jones at 32), and also only one under age 25 (Starling Marte at 24). Their starting pitchers are a balance of youngsters (Gerrit Cole, Jeff Locke), players in their prime (Francisco Liriano, Charlie Morton) and older veterans (A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez).

The handling of the Pirates’ pitching this season deserves some mention. Eyebrows were raised last year when A.J. Burnett, run out of the Bronx and seemingly done, enjoyed a renaissance under the tutelage of Pirates’ pitching coach Ray Searage. This season has witnessed a similar reclamation of Francisco Liriano. Part of the Pirates’ success appears to be in not asking more of their starters than they can deliver. Pittsburgh has just two pitchers who are currently qualified for the ERA title (neither of whom has yet reached 150 IP), but there are four others with at least 12 starts, a combination also found only on the Marlins.

Depending how you look at it, the Pirates have a fresh staff heading into the pennant chase or their staff is suspect with no go to guys who can be relied upon to go deep into games. In fact, both statements are probably true, and point to Pittsburgh’s ace in the hole – an outstanding relief corps. The Pirates presently have 5 relievers with 50+ IP and 115+ ERA+, tops in the majors. And, that doesn’t include (yet) closer Jason Grilli, with his outstanding 154 ERA+. One reason for their success – they don’t beat themselves; of their top 12 pitchers (6 starters, 50+ IP relievers and Grilli), only one (Locke) has a BB/9 over 4, while 6 have a BB/9 of 2.2 or under. That translates into 7 of those 12 having a SO/BB ratio above 3 (min. 40 IP), tied with the Braves and Yankees for most in the majors.

Congratulations to Clint Hurdle and the Pirates for getting that monkey (more like a gorilla) off their backs.

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11 years ago

Nice stuff Doug! Speaking of pitching coach Ray Searage…his 1984 season with Milwaukee was unusual. One of only 6 pitchers in history to have over 2.0 WAR in under 40 innings pitched.

John Nacca

11 years ago

Reply to Ed

Who are the other 5?………TRIVIA TIME?????

Author

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to John Nacca

I just looked them up. – One is this season and he looks like he’ll be out the rest of the year with an injury so his mark should stand. The team he was pitching for (one of the bottom-feeders) was so pleased with his results that they dealt him at the deadline for a PTBNL or cash. He’s also one of only 9 active relievers with career ERA+ over 140 (min. 500 IP), – Of the remaining 4, 3 were in the AL, including a second pitcher in the same 1984 season as Searage. That pitcher had missed the… Read more »

GrandyMan

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

I really should know (1) but it’s escaping me right now. I’ll take a wild stab at a couple of the others:

(3) Rod Beck?
(4) Troy Percival?

GrandyMan

11 years ago

Reply to GrandyMan

And I just looked up (1). The name actually crossed my mind but I never would’ve thought it was really him.

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to GrandyMan

Not Beck. He pitched in the AL only in 1999-2001. No strikes then. Beck came close in 2003 with 1.3 WAR in 35.1 IP.

Not Percival. He didn’t debut until 1995, well into the Pirates’ losing streak. Percival came closest in 2007 with 1.2 WAR in 40 IP.

Editor

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

Bullet #3 sounds like Steve Howe, but upon checking, I’m hung up on the “under 40 IP” requirement — Howe had exactly 40 IP in 1994.

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Sorry John, my original search was 40 or less innings pitched.

Author

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Steve Howe is right.

Scary Tuna

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

Is #1 Jesse Crain?

Author

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to Scary Tuna

Indeed it is.

Luis Gomez

11 years ago

Reply to Scary Tuna

Numero 2, Mark Eichorn?

e pluribus munu

11 years ago

Doug, I have friends who are die-hard Pittsburgh fans, and ever since 1960 I’ve had a soft spot for the Pirates myself, so I’m anxious for them to escape the long, dark night sub-.500. The past two years I sent my friends warm words of mid-summer cheer and caused the Pirates to collapse. This year, I have remained so silent and out of touch that my friends must be wondering if they missed the funeral, and I will remain so until the Pirates’ 81st – no – 82nd win. Your opening sentence strikes terror in my heart. Please assure me… Read more »

Author

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to e pluribus munu

Yes, I called up a secret witches’ brew, or make that Brew-ers. The Bucs have Milwaukee’s finest on tap for 6 of their next 12 (after tonight) plus 3 more against the ever-so-friendly Giants. Later in September, it’s 8 with the Cubs and Padres to start a long homestand.

Rest easy epm, it’s a lock.

no statistician but

11 years ago

From 1901 through 1945, the Pirates had only 7 losing seasons, 4 in a row 1914-17, then three loners here and there. They were perennial contenders, in other words. The late forties and most of the fifties saw them in negative territory every year, then they came back to be contenders for most of the time through 1980. An up and down franchise.

e pluribus munu

11 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Maybe it’s the proximity to Cleveland, nsb. Both franchises sustained high quality for a half century or so before hitting painful gyrations. Pittsburgh has cashed in more often at the end, though.

Jim Bouldin

11 years ago

One might guess that every baseball fan in the city of Philadelphia would’ve departed somewhere between 1935 and 1945. Like epm, I’ve always had a soft spot for the Pirates (thank you Roberto Clemente!!–one of a very small group of players I would pay specifically to watch play the game–and to the fits they gave the Reds in the early 70s, whom I disliked greatly). So its great to see their first real success since the Leyland/Bonds/Drabek era. With the jettison of the Astros, collapse of the Nationals, and ascent of the Reds, the power in the NL has shifted… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

11 years ago

Another trend that’s been Bucced so far: Decent hitting by a shortstop. From 1995 through 2012, just 2 of 18 seasons saw a Pirates regular SS with an OPS+ of at least 95 — those were by Jack Wilson, 104 in 2004 and 106 in 2007. Clint Barmes is a good glove, but his bat was dead wood last year and this year, with a 64 OPS+ both times. They’ve been transitioning to Jordy Mercer, who has a 109 OPS+ through 81 games (52 starts at SS). Mercer played some 2B while Walker was out, but he’s started 19 of… Read more »

Author

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Good stuff, John.

Seems the Pirates should be starting Mercer (who is league average defensively) and, if they need to protect a lead, going to Barmes as a late-inning defensive replacement. Despite starting just 73 times, Barmes ranks 4th in WAR fielding runs among all ML shortstops. Of course, they may also want to selectively start Barmes in games against tough opposing starters where runs may be scarce and the game could turn on defense.

Editor

birtelcom

11 years ago

It continues to be interesting to me that the Pirates have scored only 55 runs more than they have allowed, compared to a huge +146 run differential for the Cardinals and a +90 run differential for the Reds. The Bucs are also probably fortunate that there are only six current .500-or-better teams in the NL. But after all these years of misfortune, I think Pittsburgh is entitled to its measure of good luck this season.

Jim Bouldin

11 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Well that gets directly to the question of how much stock you put in the “Pythagorean” expectation versus expectations based on other types of information, and of course the use and abuse of the term “luck”. Against the best competition they’ve played, the Pirates are: 15-11 against the Cards/Reds 5-8 against the Braves and Dodgers 4-3 against the Tigers/A’s for a collective 24-22. Against divisions/leagues they’re +6, +11, -1, and +7 for the NL East, Central, West and AL respectively. They’re +20 at home and +3 on the road. They also have the 2nd lowest RPG allowed of any MLB… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

“Good god, that’s Jim Bouldin’s music!” But seriously, I just checked Pittsburgh’s highest totals in Runs Scored and Runs Allowed: – In 8 games, they’ve given up 10+ runs, outscored 90-26 in those, all losses, and 7 of 8 by margins of 5+ (“blowouts”). – Just 6 times have they scored 10+, winning those 6 by a combined 63-34, only 2 of them blowouts. Now, this goes somewhat towards Jim’s point. On the other hand, I don’t think that “piling on” is necessarily meaningless. The fact remains that the Pythagorean method does a darn good job of predicting a team’s… Read more »

Jim Bouldin

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

” On the other hand, I don’t think that “piling on” is necessarily meaningless.” It’s a valid point John. It does indicate that the winning team has offensive capabilities, which although not needed in the present game, might well be so in future ones. And of course, runs often come in unpredictable bunches, and moreover, how does any given team in any given game know when enough runs is enough? Well, they don’t of course. You’re up 5-1 in the 7th, you’re going to keep trying to score runs. I think I should rephrase it from the +/- opposite perspective:… Read more »

bstar

11 years ago

Great read, Doug. I’m rooting for the Pirates to make it to the dance also.

If we assume that Arizona has the only chance to unseat the Pirates/Cards/Reds for the second NL wild-card spot, Pittsburgh’s magic number to make the postseason is 29 (before tonight’s action).

Author

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

Thanks, bstar. I’m kind of pulling for them too. Though something tells me they’re probably still a year away from getting to the NLCS. Of course, it will help their cause immensely if they can win the division and avoid that one-game crapshoot. It should make for a great chase in September. And, don’t count out the Snakes, even for the NL West title. The Dodgers have to cool off, and they have 7 more with Arizona. Also Boston (starting tonight) and Cincinnati are on their sched. If Arizona can close the gap and put some pressure on the Dodgers,… Read more »

Jim Bouldin

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

Last night they lost their 3rd of 4 to the Reds on a fourth wild pitch of the night. Tonight they **walked in** the winning run in the bottom of the ninth in Philly. If Gibson doesn’t light a fire under their posteriors I think they’re done for the year. On the other hand, Gibby’s just exactly the guy who could do that, successfully.

David

11 years ago

The streak ends with the 81st win. And although it’s obvious, fans and players won’t be satisfied this year with 81 wins and breaking the streak, the fans in the stands or in front of their TV screens will be jumping for joy when the 27th out of the 81st win occurs. And I would hope that if it IS in PNC, the players will at least acknowledge the fans and tip their caps as they exit the field, even if the players themselves are not overexcited about their feat. By the way, they should be excited and proud of… Read more »

donburgh

11 years ago

Reply to David

Please explain why it is obvious that 81 is the number. To me, 81-81 simply would mean ‘non-winning seasons’ as opposed to losing seasons. Should be a moot point, though.

However, they (hopefully) will not win 81 or 82 at PNC. They’re at 78 now, and after these next two games against the Cards, they have a nine game trip through Milwaukee, St.Louis and Texas.