Young Guns: 2013 Edition

We’re at the half-way point of the 2013 campaign and one of this season’s best kept secrets is the fine crop of rookie hurlers this year.

Don’t know about Jose Fernandez or Julio Teheran? Here’s your opportunity to find out.

Here are rookies currently qualified for the ERA title. Note especially the ages of the pitchers at the top of the list.

Rk Player ERA+ BB/9 SO/9 WHIP Age Tm G GS CG SHO GF W L IP BB SO ERA HR OPS+
1 Jose Fernandez 144 3.21 9.13 1.058 20 MIA 16 16 0 0 0 5 4 92.2 33 94 2.72 6 55
2 Shelby Miller 133 2.11 9.70 1.068 22 STL 16 16 1 1 0 8 6 93.2 22 101 2.79 8 75
3 Hyun-jin Ryu 129 2.91 7.46 1.238 26 LAD 16 16 1 1 0 6 3 105.0 34 87 2.83 9 89
4 Julio Teheran 125 1.60 7.65 1.185 22 ATL 15 15 0 0 0 6 4 95.1 17 81 3.12 11 100
5 Nick Tepesch 93 2.46 6.83 1.332 24 TEX 15 15 0 0 0 3 6 80.1 22 61 4.71 11 98
6 Scott Rice 83 6.12 7.52 1.546 31 NYM 44 0 0 0 6 3 4 32.1 22 27 4.45 1 105
7 Paul Clemens 81 3.00 7.07 1.333 25 HOU 25 0 0 0 7 4 3 42.0 14 33 5.14 10 120
8 Justin Grimm 79 2.90 7.18 1.519 24 TEX 14 14 0 0 0 7 5 77.2 25 62 5.56 11 117
9 Wily Peralta 71 3.62 4.99 1.609 24 MIL 17 17 0 0 0 5 9 92.0 37 51 5.58 10 114
10 Brandon Maurer 54 3.10 5.84 1.682 22 SEA 10 10 0 0 0 2 7 49.1 17 32 6.93 10 174
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/2/2013.

Three of the top four by ERA+ are 22 or younger. How often have pitchers that young had 90 IP and an ERA under 3.00 half-way through their rookie season? Very seldom.

Rk Player Age ERA+ Year W L W-L% ERA GS GF CG SHO IP HR BB SO WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
1 Shelby Miller 22 133 2013 8 6 .571 2.79 16 0 1 1 93.2 8 22 101 1.068 9.7 4.59
2 Jose Fernandez 20 144 2013 5 4 .556 2.72 16 0 0 0 92.2 6 33 94 1.058 9.1 2.85
3 Matt Morris 22 131 1997 6 5 .545 2.82 17 0 1 0 105.1 7 30 76 1.263 6.5 2.53
4 Dwight Gooden 19 137 1984 8 5 .615 2.84 17 0 2 1 111.0 2 42 133 1.171 10.8 3.17
5 Fernando Valenzuela 20 135 1981 9 4 .692 2.45 14 0 8 5 110.0 6 35 103 1.009 8.4 2.94
6 Britt Burns 21 143 1980 9 6 .600 2.06 15 0 6 1 118.0 9 29 75 0.983 5.7 2.59
7 Matt Keough 22 112 1978 6 4 .600 2.16 17 0 2 0 104.0 2 42 61 1.173 5.3 1.45
8 John Henry Johnson 21 107 1978 5 5 .500 2.53 16 1 4 2 106.2 8 48 54 1.284 4.6 1.13
9 Dave Rozema 20 139 1977 8 4 .667 2.55 18 0 9 1 134.0 9 18 57 1.142 3.8 3.17
10 Mark Fidrych 21 159 1976 9 2 .818 1.78 11 2 10 1 101.1 5 22 43 0.997 3.8 1.95
11 Dennis Eckersley 20 144 1975 6 2 .750 2.36 10 5 2 1 91.2 9 43 73 1.178 7.2 1.70
12 Jon Matlack 22 145 1972 9 5 .643 2.24 17 1 4 2 132.2 6 38 87 1.153 5.9 2.29
13 Burt Hooton 22 135 1972 7 8 .467 2.79 20 0 7 2 138.2 7 51 83 1.183 5.4 1.63
14 Bill Parsons 22 107 1971 8 10 .444 2.27 19 0 9 4 139.0 8 56 84 1.216 5.4 1.50
15 Wayne Simpson 21 139 1970 13 1 .929 2.69 20 0 9 2 147.1 13 65 98 1.113 6.0 1.51
16 Tom Seaver 22 122 1967 8 5 .615 2.65 17 0 10 0 129.0 14 35 76 1.155 5.3 2.17
17 Gary Nolan 19 147 1967 7 2 .778 2.49 16 1 4 3 112.0 12 29 115 1.089 9.2 3.97
18 Marcelino Lopez 21 115 1965 9 7 .563 2.66 18 1 4 1 125.1 8 44 78 1.133 5.6 1.77
19 Ray Culp 21 109 1963 10 6 .625 2.40 16 0 8 4 131.0 9 60 118 1.122 8.1 1.97
20 Art Johnson 22 100 1941 4 6 .400 2.40 9 7 3 0 90.0 4 33 33 1.278 3.3 1.00
21 Oscar Tuero 20 88 1919 5 5 .500 2.95 12 12 4 0 119.0 2 33 33 1.151 2.5 1.00
22 George Cunningham 21 104 1916 5 9 .357 2.45 12 8 4 0 110.0 0 55 52 1.482 4.3 0.95
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/2/2013.

That’s the complete list from P-I Split Finder, back to 1916. Note that the ERA+ scores shown above are for the entire rookie season, not just the first half.

Pretty good company with a couple of HOFers, several other notables, and a few what-might-have-been names. The two pitchers on this list this year doubles the total for the preceding 28 years. It’s first season with a pair since 1978 and only the fourth such season overall.

With his 3.12 ERA, Julio Teheran barely missed the list above. But, he joins Miller and Fernandez  to make three rookies 22 or younger with an ERA+ of 125 or better. Were the trio to hold that form for the season, it would be the most rookies aged 22 or younger in the same year.

What are the chances? I would probably say slim, except that, instead of starting fast and then coming down to earth the second and third time through the league, it’s been the opposite for Fernandez and Teheran. Consider:

  • Fernandez has trimmed his ERA from 4.50 for April, to 3.78 at the end of May, and 2.72 now. The Marlins are 9-7 when Fernandez starts, and 21-45 when he doesn’t.
  • Similar story for Teheran, going from 5.08 for April, to 3.71 at the end of May and 3.12 now. Teheran has also turned up the heat on opposing batters with 46 strikeouts over his last 39 innings, after a more modest (by today’s standards) 35 strikeouts in 56.1 IP to start the year.
  • Miller has been solid right out of the gate, allowing no more than 3 runs in any of his first 12 starts and keeping his ERA under 2.00 through most of that stretch. He’s run into a little rough patch of late with a 6.38 ERA over his last 4 starts, including his first disaster in his most recent outing, allowing 5 runs over just 1.2 IP. His 101 SO to just 22 BB is easily the best ratio of the three.

The “grizzled veteran” of the four pitchers topping our first list is 26 year-old Hyun-jin Ryu of the Dodgers. I’ve seen Ryu pitch a few times and his maturity is evident. Never seems to get flustered and just goes about his business, working quickly but not hurriedly. Doesn’t have the blazing heater, but is very precise with his location. Ryu has gone 5+ innings every time out with 14 quality starts in 16 outings, including a shutout of the rival Angels. Has also helped himself with the lumber, with 3 extra-base hits and 3 RBI to his credit.

What young pitchers have caught your eye this season?

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Dalton Mack
Editor
11 years ago

Alex Torres has looked stunning out of the pen this year for Tampa. Full disclosure: I’m a Rays fan.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
11 years ago

Well, there’s this one guy I’ve seen, but keep it a secret. His name is Harvey something, and I think he pitches for the Mets. Kid has quite an arm on him. đŸ™‚

Okay, okay, everyone knows how dominant Matt Harvey has been (though he’s not as young as the others, and he’s not a rookie), so for a homer pick, I’ll thrown in Cleveland’s Cody Allen, a 24 year old with a great arm and some nice numbers this year (10.7 K/9, 181 ERA+ and 1.069 WHIP in his 33.2 IP).

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago

Great look, Doug. I’ve seen Jose Fernandez against the Mets a few times, and I’m very impressed. I can’t believe he never even pitched at AA.

Your lists, though, reminded me how fleeting it can be. Detroit produced Fidrych in ’76, Rozema in ’77 — both outstanding, polished pitchers at age 20. And both got hurt by their 3rd year, and were never the same. At least Rozey was able to have a decent career, and had a role on the ’84 champs. But the Tigers could have done so much more in that era if they had stayed healthy.

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Rozema is the only postwar pitcher with both 200+ IP and 1.9 BB/9 or less in each of his first 2 seasons. Three guys did it before WWII.

Only 2 guys since Rozema logged 200+ IP in their first 2 years — Gooden (1984-85) and Higuera (1985-86). I don’t guess we’ll be seeing another of those for a while.