Target Practice: Deadline Tradesmen in Action Wednesday

At least four pitchers thought to be on the trading block showed off their assets Wednesday, along with one already dealt. With results like these, market activity might be heating up soon.

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Houston’s Bud Norris held the Rays to a run in 7 innings for his 8th quality start in 9 outings. He has a 2.29 ERA in that span, 3.22 over all. Norris is eligible for arbitration after this, his 4th season.

Some teams might be put off by Norris’s splits against winners and losers this year — a 1.80 ERA in 10 starts vs. teams under .500, but a 5.32 ERA in the other 8 games. But his career split is normal. His domination of the Angels (2 runs allowed over 4 starts) makes him a potential target for Texas, which has a need and has 13 games left against the Halos.

Norris had roughly average results in 3-1/2 years in the NL (4.42 ERA), but with a much better K rate than he’s flashed since Houston crossed over — 22.5% SO in the NL, 17.6% AL. His strong returns against St. Louis (8-5, 2.74 in 15 starts) might draw Pittsburgh’s interest (14 games left with the Cards). The Bucs are not seen as leading bidders in the SP market, but they might view Norris as insurance against the age and health of A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez (both have been out almost a month), the inexperience of some others, and the uncertainty of Francisco Liriano‘s staying power (5.23 ERA for the prior two years). And with Liriano, Jeff Locke and Wandy all southpaws, Pittsburgh might like another RHP for the stretch run and beyond.

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Miami’s Ricky Nolasco beat Atlanta on 2 runs over 7 innings, with no walks and 7 strikeouts. Now 30, and a free agent at year’s end, his K rate’s declined since his prime (8.6 SO/9 from 2008-10, 6.4 SO/9 since), but his control is excellent. Nolasco has shined in low-HR parks like Petco (4-2, 2.11, 3 HRs in 6 starts) and Nationals Park (4-2, 2.32, 3 HRs in 7 starts). Both those clubs need a starter, but a deadline acquisition by San Diego would be a rarity, and while the West seems wide open, it’s hard to see the Padres as strong contenders given their recent crash after getting over .500.

Washington is allegedly chasing the Braves. Despite his win Wednesday, Nolasco’s numbers against Atlanta are poor. But with just three 3-game sets left in that series, the Nats might be able to shield him. They need to upgrade their back end, as Ross Detwiler (1.49 WHIP) has not come close to last year’s pleasant-surprise numbers.

Nolasco owns 4 career shutouts (2 last year against Washington), but has no scoreless outings this year. His starts generally give his team a chance, yielding 4 runs or less in 16 of 18 this year, but don’t look for dominance: Since 2012, just 2 of his 49 starts featured 8 Ks or more.

AL teams will be wary of Nolasco’s career 5.03 ERA and 1.5 HR/9 in 21 starts against 9-batter lineups.

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The Cubs’ Matt Garza cooled off a hot Oakland squad that had won 5 of 6 on this homestand while averaging almost 6 runs. Garza’s 9th start of the year was his 4th gem in a row with 7 or 8 IP and one run or none. He’s been among the most consistent good starters over the last 7 years, producing an ERA from 3.32-3.95 and ERA+ from 100-119 each season. Health is an issue, as he missed from late July last year to late May this year. But this strong run, and the fact that he’s pitching for his next contract, should have contenders lining up for a price-check, especially AL teams.

Garza’s AL track record shows a solid 3.86 ERA in 114 starts. He’s done even better against AL clubs since joining the Cubs, a 2.79 ERA in 7 games, though none against Eastern powers. One intriguing split is his work in the homer-friendly Rogers Centre — 7 games, 10 runs, one HR.

If the Dodgers are shopping for rentals, Garza has a 2.44 RA/9 in 9 combined starts against the D-backs, Giants and Padres. His postseason experience (3.48 ERA in 5 games) might interest the Pirates; only Burnett has started a game in the LCS or later.

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Milwaukee’s Kyle Lohse blanked the Nats for 6 innings, and handed a 4-1 lead straight to his closer. The market for Lohse is uncertain, given the lack of interest last winter that led to him signing late with the Brewers. But that not-too-steep contract — he’s owed about $27 million through 2015 — plus his strong results of late, might lead to a different perception.

Lohse has become an extreme control pitcher, slashing his walk rate to 1.7 BB/9 since 2011, from 2.8 before. But with below-average strikeouts and a high flyball rate, Kyle’s success depends on avoiding dingers. In 172 homerless starts, his ERA is 2.91; but with as little as one tater, it soars to 5.25. No particular ballpark split stands out, but he’s 5-1, 3.48 in Pittsburgh, with 3 HRs in 11 starts. Texas and Cleveland, beware: Lohse has allowed 8 HRs in 28 IP in Rangers Ballpark (6.75 ERA), and 9 HRs in 46 IP in Jacobs Field (8.08). AL clubs in general might just steer clear: Since 2007, Lohse has a 5.18 ERA in 18 starts against the junior brethren, but 3.88 in the senior loop. His career SO% is less than 14% vs. non-pitchers.

Teams with serious October dreams will notice his 5.45 ERA in 8 postseason starts, the lone QS coming last year against Washington. All things considered, a Lohse trade will likely depend on how little the Brewers would take.

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Scott Feldman returned to his AL roots with a happy result for Baltimore, summoning grounders and whiffs in key spots to keep the ChiSox to 2 runs in a 6-inning no-decision. He gave up a tying HR to start the 5th, but stranded the lead run after a 1-out double, and finished with 6 Ks, no walks.

Don’t expect many whiff-an-inning games out of Feldman; like Lohse, his career SO% vs. non-pitchers is just 14%. Feldman should help the O’s, but he’s another 6-inning man on a staff full of them. Baltimore starters have averaged 5-2/3 IP, 11th in the AL, and their 46% QS is tied for 12th.

The Oriole bullpen is down from last year. They’ve been bolstered so far by unprecedented results from ex-starter Tommy Hunter, with a 1.96 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 46 IP. He’s showed no signs of wear as yet, but Hunter’s in uncharted waters; with just 23 prior relief games, he’s already pitched 33 times, with 15 going more than one frame. Baltimore should still be in the market for a sturdier starter.

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What other trade chatter are you hearing? Any stealth moves to propose?

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bstar
bstar
11 years ago

I’ve heard the Braves are coveting Cubs closer Kevin Gregg, who’s currently displaying a 250ish ERA+ this year. Why does the team whose bullpen was recently sporting the best ERA in the bigs need help? Because the 7th and 8th-inning spots held so well by Eric O’Flaherty and Jonny Venters (TJ surgery for both) the last couple of years are being filled by unproven arms. Those unproven arms have performed surprisingly well, with Luis Avilan’s 244 ERA+ heading the list of virtual unknowns behind Craig Kimbrel. The problem is that none of these guys have pitched high-pressure innings in the… Read more »

Doug
Doug
11 years ago

Nolasco or Lohse could be a good pickup for Pittsburgh. The Pirates rotation is going along well now, but it’s thin. An injury, or regression to the mean (Burnett, Liriano) could leave the Bucs exposed. If ever they are going to be buyers, this is the year.

Doug
Doug
11 years ago

Unusual (I think) combination in the Seattle-Texas game tonight (Thursday).

Furbush relieved starter Iwakuma in the 7th with a 3-2 lead and two runners on. Both runners scored and Seattle never got even after that. So Furbush got the blown save and Iwakuma got the loss.

Don’t think P-I can’t help with this one but probably not a lot of games with a team logging on a blown save in a loss charged to their starting pitcher.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

There is a way. It would best be done one year at a time. From the PI get a list of losing starters and a list of blown saves and put them both on an excel spreadsheet. Then sort by team and then by date. Then by using the =if(..) function search for consecutive rows that match. Doing it that way I found out that the event occurred on 6-2-13 when Porcello was the losing starter and Coke blew the save. There may be more.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Here’s a list of such games for 2013.

Date…….. Starter………… Reliever…….. Team… Opponent

7/04/2013… Gerrit Cole…….. Vin Mazzaro….. PIT…. PHI

7/04/2013… Hisashi Iwakuma…. Charlie Furbush. SEA…. TEX

6/02/2013… Rick Porcello ….. Phil Coke……. DET…. BAL

5/26/2013… Wade Davis……… Bruce Chen…… KCR…. LAA

5/20/2013… Shelby Miller…… Fernando Salas.. STL…. SDP

5/02/2013… Travis Wood…….. Shawn Camp…… CHC…. SDP

4/30/2013… Jeremy Hefner…… Brandon Lyon…. NYM…. MIA

4/05/2013… Kyle Kendrick…… Jeremy Horst…. PHI…. KCR

Doug
Editor
11 years ago

Thanks Richard,

So, a couple of times a month. No doubt much more common in the “fireman” era than in our current “closer” era.

BTW, if you don’t want to lose your formatting, put “pre” and “/pre” html tags before and after your formatted text (that you can paste into the comment). Both tags would be enclosed by less-than and greater-than symbols.

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

What tag is that, Doug, if you don’t mind?