Sunday game notes: Gindl Fire!

@Brewers 1, Marlins 0 (13 inn.) — Caleb Gindl led off the home 13th with his first-ever home run, ending the longest 1-0 game in two years and sealing Milwaukee’s third straight shutout, tying a club record set in 1990. The Brewers have not allowed a run since the 5th inning of their last pre-Break game, a span of 35 innings.

 

Henderson Alvarez worked 7 scoreless with just 1 K, and got Miami’s first hit (the first of his career) in the 3rd inning. They got 4 singles all day — 2 in 8 innings off red-hot Wily Peralta, who’s allowed 1 run over four starts to slash his ERA from 5.58 to 4.30. His middle infielders each made an error to start the 7th and 8th innings, but Peralta brushed that off with two strikeouts and three grounders, one a DP. Francisco Rodriguez bolstered his trade value (he’s got to be traded, no?) with a scoreless 9th, leaving him with 3 runs allowed in 24.2 IP.

  • Gindl, an outfielder listed at 5′ 7″, averaged 17 HRs per 162 games in the minors.
  • It’s the Brewers’ first scoreless tie in extras won by a walk-off HR. They had one in the 9th back in 1992.
  • Since 1977, there’s been just one later scoreless tie ended by a home run, that in the 15th. The last one later than that was in 1975.
  • Milwaukee’s last walk-off HR was Sept. 1 of last year.
  • One later walk-off HR this year, in the 19th by Brandon Moss.
  • Miami’s #3-8 hitters went 0-27, with 3 walks.
  • The only other major-league Caleb since 1872 also played today — a scoreless inning by untouchable Caleb Thielbar.

__________

Orioles 4, @Rangers 2 — Chris Tillman (12-3) won for the 8th time in 9 starts, and lasted 8 innings for the first time in that stretch. Tillman allowed his obligatory solo HR, to Adrian Beltre starting the 9th, and fanned 7. Darren O’Day got the last 2 outs, stranding another inherited runner; he has 2 saves, 15 holds, and has surrendered a lead just twice. Texas suffered their second home sweep this year and fell 3 games behind Oakland, and 2 behind Baltimore in the wild-card.

  • Baltimore leads the majors in home runs, by a margin of 14. But they’re 11-10 without a HR. They’re also 2nd in doubles, and they hit 4 tonight, with 3 leading to runs.
  • No double for Manny, though, and his drought reached 11 games. Machado had an RBI single, and drew his 17th walk, his first in 15 games.
  • All those extra-base hits help make up for sub-par on-base skills. They’re 8th in AL OBP, but 3rd in scoring.
  • Beltre’s HR gave him 3,997 total bases. Just six third basemen got 4,000 total bases — 5 HOFers, with Chipper to join when eligible. Beltre is 8th all-time in games at the hot corner.

__________

Pirates 3, @Reds 2 — Recently inserted for defense, Gaby Sanchez started a 3-6-1 DP that helped Mark Melancon get out of a bags-full, no-out mess with the lead intact. Jason Grilli notched his 30th save, securing another Jeff Locke win (9-2, 2.11). The southpaw walked 4 in 6 innings and wild-pitched a run home, but he allowed just one hit, a leadoff infield single by Shin-Soo Choo, whom Locke then picked off. Pittsburgh salvaged the series finale and restored a 3-game lead over the Reds, while holding 2 back of St. Louis.

__________

Rays 4, @Blue Jays 3 — With a week’s rest since his first career shutout, Chris Archer held Toronto to one run in 7 IP, trimming his ERA to 2.76 in 10 starts and helping the Rays to a road sweep. Tampa’s won 5 in a row for the 4th time this year, and 17 of 19 to reach 58-41, the club’s 2nd-best at this point. Evan Longoria’s 20th HR was one of three hit off R.A. Dickey, who’s allowed 17 HRs in 11 home starts, and 6 in 10 road games.

  • Does that score sound familiar? In this 17-2 run, Tampa’s won six times by one run — all of them 4-3. They’ve allowed exactly 3 runs 21 times, most in the majors, going 18-3.
  • Fernando Rodney walked the leadoff man with a 4-1 lead and gave up a 2-run double with no outs, but he held on for his 15th straight conversion. Rodney’s tidied up a lot of his stats in that run, but I’m still a skeptic. He came into last year with a career walk rate of 4.9 BB/9, sliced it to 1.8 last year, but it’s back over 5 this season.
  • Toronto’s 7-16 since their 11-game win streak. They’re 10 games back of the 2nd wild card, with 6 other (non-seated) teams to pass, including K.C. and Seattle. It’s over.

__________

@Mets 5, Phillies 0 — We cannot dismiss the possibility that your narrator was wrong, and that this Harvey chappy was the right choice to start the All-Star Game, after all. This was his eighth 10-K effort in his first 30 career games, tied for 5th in the searchable era, and it left him with these career numbers after 30 starts: 2.38 ERA, 10.4 SO/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.97 WHIP, .195 BA, .297 SLG.

The Mets, who have more power than you may have been led to believe, hit 3 HRs off Cliff Lee, with consecutive shots in the 1st by David Wright (#15) and Marlon Byrd (#17), and a 3-run wall-scraper by Juan Lagares in the 4th.

__________

Athletics 6, @Angels 0 — Bartolo Colon tossed a 4-hitter for his third shutout this year (tied with Justin Masterson) and his 13th win (tied with three others). Colon allowed only 2 hits before the 9th, and no runner reached 3rd base.

  • The last A’s pitcher with 13 wins after 98 team games was Mark Mulder, 2004 (his last year with the A’s). Their last to win 20 was Barry Zito, 2002.

__________

Indians 7, Twins 1 — And speaking of Justin Masterson, the Cleveland ace had 6 no-hit innings before Brian Dozier doubled to start the 7th. Masterson left after that inning, in which Dozier scored on an error, having allowed the one hit and no walks, with 8 strikeouts. Jason Kipnis continued to rake, driving in 3 with a HR and single.

__________

@Cardinals 3, Padres 2 — This just in: Allen Craig hit an RBI single in his only RISP chance.

__________

Tigers 4, @Royals 1 — Miggy hit the first one — of the game, and of his second-half pursuit of the Triple Thingy — but it was Andy Dirks who broke a tie in the 5th with a solo drive off Criminally Unsupported James Shields. Brayan Pena tacked on two sac flies.

  • Bruce Rondon worked his third straight perfect outing, and has now retired 12 straight batters. (Hey, we’re looking for any sign of a 3rd option in Detroit’s bullpen.)

So, who’s the most valuable relief tandem this year? The attention’s focused on Pittsburgh’s Melancon & Grilli, and they’ve been great — 88 IP, 14 ER, 1.43 ERA, 2 leads blown. Now, Detroit’s Drew Smyly & Joaquin Benoit: 98.1 IP, 19 ER, 1.74 ERA, 2 leads blown. Each pair has 111 Ks. Melancon/Grilli have 32 saves, but a 2-2 record; Smyly/Benoit have just 12 saves, but they’re 6-0. Before Sunday, the WAR score was 4.0 for the Tigers tandem, 3.2 for the Bucs bros.

I’m not saying that WAR is the answer. But Detroit’s duo have been great, and without the comfort of pre-assigned innings or starting out clean. Smyly’s entered in almost every frame, and he and Benoit have totaled 26 stints of more than one inning, while Melancon & Grilli have come in before their designated inning just once all year and never exceeded an inning. Melancon/Grilli have inherited just 2 runners (none for the setup man?!?), while Smyly/Benoit have inherited 24, and let in just 2. There might be another pair with more WAR when that stat is updated tomorrow — Texas’s Joe Nathan and Tanner Scheppers are close, and I haven’t exhaustively studied the lists — but for combined workload and effectiveness, I’ll take the Tigers.

__________

@White Sox 3, Braves 1 — Atlanta had 9 hits, 4 walks and 3 hits with RISP; Chicago had 5, 2 and 2. But the Braves blew bags-full with no outs in the 2nd (strikeout, line-drive DP), and a 2-out hit in the 3rd with the catcher on 2nd couldn’t score him. The Sox scored with a walk, a wild pitch and a single; a double and a dink; and a single, a steal, a boot and a sac fly.

Atlanta’s 1st in NL HRs, but 9th in BA, 13th in doubles, 12th in steals (31-20). They don’t take the extra base. They’re still a good team, and they’ll win this weak division. But maybe the lack of a chase has lulled them to lethargy: 42-41 is a half-year of mediocrity, and that’s what Atlanta’s been since their 13-2 start — yet they’ve widened their lead in that time. They’ve been alone in 1st every day since April 7, and ahead by at least 4 games since May 21. Will they answer the playoff bell?

__________

Dodgers 9, @Nationals 2 — Clayton Kershaw enjoyed three games’ worth of support, not that he needed it. All Kershaw allowed in 7 innings was a pair of Jayson Werth homers. But long before that, Matt Kemp homered in the first at-bat of his latest return, touching off a 7-run stanza that he capped with a double, for his first multi-XBH game of the year. Carl Crawford had 3 hits as well as a steal, each for the first time since May. And Hanley Ramirez has 9 HRs and 28 RBI in his last 29 games, with L.A. going 21-8.

Is it time to shut down Jordan Zimmermann, keep him fresh for next year? For three months, Double-N kept his team afloat; through July 1, they were 14-3 in his starts, 28-37 otherwise. But the strain may be showing: After 7 runs in 2 innings, he has a 5.44 ERA in his last 7 games. Some of it’s just luck distribution; his BAbip was .230 before this slump, but around .330 since.

__________

@Red Sox 8, Yankees 7 (11 innings that felt like 20) — Mike Napoli’s evening: strikeout, 3-run HR, strikeout with 2 RISP/2 outs, strikeout with 2 on/2 outs, bags-full GDP, walk-off HR.

Sabathia’s 5 innings: 7 runs on 9 hits, 5 Ks. First 5 IP for the Yanks’ bullpen: no runs on 2 hits, 10 Ks. Shawn Kelley fanned 5 in a row, upping his K rate to 38%.

  • Remember the one other time CC allowed 7+ runs back-to-back? It was April ’08: Coming off his Cy Young Award and facing free agency, he allowed 9 runs in consecutive starts, falling to 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA. In his last 31 starts that year, CC had a 1.88 ERA. It feels like a long time ago now.
  • Brett Gardner tied this year’s high with a 15-pitch battle against Junichi Tazawa, ending in a walk. Last year’s longest was 16; to enjoy that one fully, you have to follow the progression of Juan Francisco’s ABs.
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Disco
Disco
11 years ago

Here’s a good question for you. That was Caleb Gindl’s first career HR. Has there ever been another first career walk-off HR? Ever one in extra innings?

It seems like this could have been a very rare feat indeed.

Disco
Disco
11 years ago
Reply to  Disco

ESPN says he’s the first in Brewers history to do it, but they don’t mention any other teams, or whether it’s been done in extra innings.

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Disco

Here’s one: David Doster, a long-time Phillies organization infielder who played over 1,300 games in the minors but only got 225 PAs in the majors, hit his first MLB homer (the first of four career MLB homers) to win the game for the Phillies in the bottom of the 10th on June 21, 1996. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI199606210.shtml

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Disco

I found 3 others.
Miguel Cabrera on 6-20-03, 11th inning
Josh Bard on 8-13-02
Billy Parker on 9-9-71, 12th inning

My search method is slow and laborious, it’s probably happened many times.

Disco
Disco
11 years ago

Thanks guys. Wow, Cabrera — that was also in Cabrera’s first game!

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

Also the following pitchers did it:
Lou Sleater (10th inning)
Glen Hobbie
Steve Hargan
Jim Hardin
Craig Lefferts (12th inning)

Doug
Editor
11 years ago

Good on you, Richard.

You obviously have more patience than me. I conceived of how to do this with P-I and Excel, but couldn’t muster the effort to go about it – so much copying and pasting.

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago

It looks like roughly one of every 75 or so homers is a walk-off. That would suggest that roughly one of every 75 or so MLB hitters will have his first MLB homer turn out to be a walk-off.

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

On a gut level, this seems way off, but I suppose your logic is sound, with the exception of an adjustment for the possibility that a player hits his first two career HR in the same game, in which case it’s impossible that the first was a walkoff. That probably doesn’t materially change your estimate.

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Bryan O'Connor

What seems way off, the percentage of homers that are walk-offs or the hypothesis that the percentage will be roughly the same for first-time homers as with any other homers? The first is easy to check with the PI event finder. According to that, there have been 69,128 regular season homers since the beginning of the 2000 season, of which 923 have been walk-offs, an average of one every 74.9 homers. This average already accounts for the fact that multiple homers are hit in a game, and that only the last one can ever be a walk-off. There may be… Read more »

Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I tested your 1 in 75 theory for a 10-year period, 2001 to 2010. I found 846 players who hit their first career HR in this period. Of these, there were 13 walk-off homers, a ratio of about 1 in 65. In the ballpark, at any rate.

For the record, these are the 13.

Mark DeRosa	2001-07-21
Josh Bard	2002-08-23
Esix Snead	2002-09-21
Miguel Cabrera	2003-06-20
Terry Tiffee	2004-09-04
Craig Brazell	2004-09-25
Dioner Navarro	2005-08-12
Paul McAnulty	2006-09-06
Ben Francisco	2007-06-29
Robert Andino	2008-04-01
Wil Nieves	2008-04-25
Jay Bruce	2008-05-31
Drew Stubbs	2009-08-20
birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Disco

Keith Lampard had only one homer in his brief MLB career, a walk-off homer for Houston, an event mentioned in Jim Bouton’s famous memoir, Ball Four. There’s an interesting bio of Lampard here: http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/39e1a37a

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago

Lowest team OPS for a season over the last 40 years:
Blue Jays (1981) .617
Marlins (2013) .623
Angels (1976) .624
Expos (1976) .631

Similarly: Pitchers have an ERA against the Marlins this season of 2.78. Over the past 40 years, only those 1981 Blue Jays have had a lower ERA against, 2.77.

Pitchers against Miami this season have a 1.109 WHIP. Over a full season, that would be the lowest WHIP for the pitchers against any team since 1968.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago

Here are the longest 1-0 games decided on a walk-off HR. Rk Date Tm Opp Rslt IP R ER HR 1 1963-07-02 MLN SFG L 0-1 15.1 1 1 1 2 1976-06-17 LAD NYM L 0-1 13.1 1 1 1 3 1969-08-19 SFG NYM L 0-1 13.1 1 1 1 4 1944-04-26 STL CIN L 0-1 12.2 1 1 1 5 1998-09-26 (2) PHI FLA L 0-1 12.1 1 1 1 6 1950-04-30 CHC STL L 0-1 12.1 1 1 1 7 2013-07-21 MIA MIL L 0-1 12.0 1 1 1 8 2001-09-02 ARI SDP L 0-1 12.0 1 1 1… Read more »

Doug
Editor
11 years ago

One of the reasons for those “11 innings that felt like 20”.

Brett Gardner’s 15 pitch AB in the 7th inning. A very memorable plate appearance even with anti-climactic result of a walk. Gardner fouled off 8 straight pitches including one (pitch number 9) at eye level (evidently, with two out, he was trying to stay alive to drive in the runner at third). The pitch he finally took for a walk was high and way outside, too far for Gardner to reach.

Chuck
Chuck
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Alex Gordon had a 22 pitch AB a couple of weeks ago.

Chuck
Chuck
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

That’s what I get for trusting Twitter, John. 🙂

Doug
Editor
11 years ago

Bartolo Colon is just the 7th pitcher in the live-ball era to have 3 shutouts in an age 40 or over season. The last two before Colon both did it in a strike-shortened season. Rk Player Year SHO Age Tm G GS CG W L W-L% IP BB SO ERA ERA+ HR 1 Bartolo Colon 2013 3 40 OAK 20 20 3 13 3 .813 135.2 16 75 2.52 154 9 2 Dennis Martinez 1994 3 40 CLE 24 24 7 11 6 .647 176.2 44 92 3.52 133 14 3 Phil Niekro 1981 3 42 ATL 22 22 3… Read more »

Chuck
Chuck
11 years ago

Question for the Play Index experts…

Talking with a friend today about the potential free agent options for Jacoby Ellsbury, and his 8.1 WAR 2011 came up.

He’s played five other seasons (not counting this one) and has only one other season of 3.0 WAR or more.

I made the statement in our discussion that Ellsbury’s 2011 may be the single most outlier season ever, at least for a position player.

Is there any way to check that?

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I found that Terry Turner had a WAR of 9.4 in 1906 and a WAR of 4.3 in 1907. His differential of 5.1 matches Ellsbury. He has 3 other seasons of more than 3.0 WAR.

Chuck
Chuck
11 years ago

Thanks, John.

Not sure if you feel so indulged, but just for laughs could you run pitchers too?

I would imagine in this day and age of the Fernando Rodney’s of the world there would be some, but just in case.

Chuck
Chuck
11 years ago
Reply to  Chuck

Not real important, John, maybe something in the 5.0 range like Richard mentioned with Ellsbury and Terry Turner.

I understand pitchers would be a bit more skewed, so no worries, just curious

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Chuck

Chuck: I can give you a few large differentials here.
Dick Ellsworth: 6.5
Mark Fidrych: 7.2
Bill James(the other one): 7.8

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago
Reply to  Chuck

If you raise the lower end of the scale up Doc Gooden’s 12.1 pitching WAR in 1985 ties Steve Carlton for the highest mark since the deadball era. His on other seasons of pitching WAR numbers of 4 or above were 5.5 and 4.4. Carlton had a 10.1 in 1980 and other seasons above 5 & 6.

Doc also had 1.1 oWAR in his 1980 season and his total of 13.2 WAR trails only Walter Johnson’s 1912 & 1913 seasons and Babe Ruth’s 1923 for the highest mark of any player since 1894.

Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  Chuck

I would imagine Dick Ellsworth wins the prize for the biggest WAR change from one season to the next (with both seasons being comparable in playing time). Ellsworth had 10.2 WAR in 290 IP in 1963, and 1.5 WAR the next year in 256 IP.

The difference was an ERA that almost doubled (and an ERA+ that dropped 68 points). Ironically, Ellsworth’s only All-Star appearance came in the second of those two seasons.

bstar
11 years ago

Rico Petrocelli’s differential is 5.0 (10.0 WAR in 1969, next-best is 1971 with 5.0).

Petrocelli is one of only 25 position players to have a 10-WAR season. Next-biggest WAR gap among this group from best season to 2nd-best belongs to Al Rosen, 10.1 WAR in his MVP ’53 season and 6.0 WAR the year before (a 4.1 differential).

Rosen (32.4) and Petrocelli (39.0) also have the two lowest career WAR totals for any of the 10-WAR season guys (we’re giving Mike Trout a little more time to accumulate WAR here).

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Sorry, I didn’t see that Lawrence A already mentioned Petrocelli @28.

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Chuck

Norm Cash, might be considered to have had a similar arc in his twenties. He had a 9.2 WAR year in 1961 at age 26, but his best other season in his twenties was 5.0 WAR less than that, at 4.2. He did have a 5.3 WAR season at age 30, but Ellsbury’s not there yet. Terry Turner, the deadball era defensive-infield star for Cleveland, had a 9.4 WAR season in 1906, at age 25 (he had a rare season of solid hitting and was apparently vacuuming up everything in sight as the Naps’ full-time shortstop). The second-best WAR season… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Oops, sorry Richard, we were checking Turner simultaneously, and you got there first.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

While we’re at it Turner holds the record for most games played wearing an Indian uniform.

bstar
11 years ago

And Turner still holds the single-season dWAR record of 5.4 in that 1906 season.

34 fielding runs for Turner in 1906, but that’s only good for a tie for 8th-best all-time. Darin Erstad is the all-time Rfield leader, with 39 in 2002.

Andrelton Simmons of Atlanta should challenge that record this year as he’s on pace for 44 Rfield.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Chuck

@14/Chuck, It doesn’t quite meet your WAR qualifications, but I consider Norm Cash’s 1961 (9.2 WAR) the biggest fluke season ever. He had only one other season over 5 WAR. It’s not so much the WAR differential, but the traditional stats that stand out in 1961: waaaay over a .300 BA (.361), 100 RBI (132) and 100 runs scored (119), even led the AL in hits, never did any of that any other year and usually didn’t even come close, in a pretty good career. Bill James had a whole article on the geatest “fluke” seasons, I think that it… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Sorry birtelcom, I didn’t see your #20. It still amazes me that a relatively unkown player such as Turner holds the Indians career games played record. Their biggest non-pitcher stars, such as Lajoie, Speaker, Averill, Boudreau, Colavito, Thome, Lofton, Ramirez, and Belle either played a good part of their careers elsewhere and/or had fairly short careers overall. 1 Terry Turner 1625 2 Nap Lajoie 1614 3 Lou Boudreau 1560 4 Jim Hegan 1526 5 Tris Speaker 1519 T6 Ken Keltner 1513 T6 Joe Sewell 1513 8 Earl Averill 1510 9 Charlie Jamieson 1483 10 Omar Vizquel 1478 11 Jack Graney… Read more »

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Lawrence – As an Indians fan, the names Charlie Jamieson, Jack Graney, and Bill Bradley are unfamiliar to me. And Steve O’Neill and Bill Wambsganss are only vaguely familiar.

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

The 1920 WS champions had six of the twenty on the roster: Speaker, Sewell, Jamieson, Graney, O’Niell, and Wambsganss.

The 1948 Champs had four: Boudreau, Hegan, Keltner, and Doby, plus two who just miss the list, Dale Mitchell and Al Rosen. The next year Avila joined the team.

Nap Lajoie, Terry Turner, and Bill Bradley played together from 1904-1910.

Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Graney was also the radio voice of the Indians for over 20 years, from 1932 to 1953. He later broadcast for the Cleveland Barons hockey club (Graney was Canadian and an accomplished hockey player as a youth). Bill Wambsganss is of course most famous for executing an unassisted triple play in the 1920 World Series. That feat was duplicated 5 times in the next 7 seasons, including on consecutive days (May 30 and 31) in 1927. Then a long dry spell with but a single occurrence (in 1968) for 64 years (1928-91). There have been 7 occurrences since 1992, including… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

It’s been reported that Graney was the first former player to become a play-by-play baseball broadcaster.

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Intuitively, I’m surprised that the number of extra inning walk-offs comes as close as it does to the number in inning nine, since far more games are regulation than overtime, so to speak.

On the other hand, it may have to do with opportunity: what percentage of those nine inning contests present a walk-off opportunity, compared with the extra-inning variety, in which the potential for a walk-off is there in every game?

Or is this just inconsequential rambling?

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

To say the same thing in other words, in extra-inning games the score differential going into the bottom half of the inning is usually low, whereas in regulation games there is a wide variance in the differential.

Disco
Disco
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

So 1621 walkoffs in regulation games, and 1563 walkoffs in extra innings. How many total regulation and how many total extra inning games (XIG) have there been in that time? What Richard says below is intuitive — and I think you’re statistically more likely to see a walkoff if it’s an XIG. That is, given an XIG, the probability of a walkoff increases. And it may not be just because the score differential is low. Perhaps the quality of pitching decreases in longer games. Just a speculation.

Maybe we should get Nate Silver to answer the probability question.

Disco
Disco
11 years ago
Reply to  Disco

It appears (if I’m using the play index correctly) that there have been 234,744 regulation games and 23,858 XIG since opening day 1945.

So if your walkoff HR data are correct, then the chance of a walkoff in regulation is 0.69%. But in XIG (and forgive me if there’s a better/standard acronym for that), the chance is 6.55%. In other words, you are about ten times more likely to see a walkoff in extra innings than you are in the ninth.

What’s also interesting to me is that almost exactly 10% of games to go extra innings.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Disco

I think your numbers are high. I found that from 1945-present the number of games is 129113, with 11854 going into extra innings.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

This is a follow-up to JA’s post 24 concerning walk-off HRs (WOHR) in the 9th and in EI.
This is for the 2004-2013 time period. Make what you want out of it.

Total WOHR: 651
9th: 328
EI: 323

With the score tied:
9th: 224
EI: 287

Home team one run behind:
9th: 83
EI: 32

Home team two runs behind:
9th: 17
EI: 3

Home team three runs behind:
9th: 4
EI: 1

Doug
Doug
11 years ago

Thanks, Richard. I really think it’s accidental (or coincidental) more than anything else that the total WOHR in the 9th and extra innings are about the same. As your numbers show, walk-offs with a tie score are more likely in EI, which makes sense, as a tie score in EI simply means that the visiting team didn’t score in the top of the inning, the most common result given that 0 is the most common run total in any single inning (much more rarely, of course, a tie score in EI may be the result of the home team matching… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago

My first thought is that the reason that there are more walk-off homers in the 9th than in extras is that I’m guessing there are many more home teams trailing by one or two runs (still relatively rich in walk-off homer possibilities) in the ninth than there are in extra innings. There are many ways to have eight-and-half innings of baseball produce a one- or two-run lead for the visitors going into the bottom of the ninth. But for the visitors to take a one or two run lead into the bottom of a tenth inning, the runs have to… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I started from the assumption that the likelihood of tie games going to the bottom of the inning isn’t much different between 9th innings and extra innings. All it takes to have a tie game in the bottom of an extra inning is for the visitors to not score in the top of the inning. So I ended up assuming that the difference in walk-off opportunities is going to arise from the difference in likelihood of small leads for the visitors.

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

JOhn, I’ll give this a try. I think you’re looking for an explanation as to why the number of walk-offs in the ninth vs. EIG are the same, but in reality the rate of walk-offs (as Disco talks about @39 although I think he may be double-counting games) is quite different.

So the fact that the number of walk-offs are similar really is something that is unexplainable. I think it’s more coincidence than anything.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Sorry to resurrect a two-day dead horse and begin flailing away: I’m no statistician (and there’s no but about it) . . . however, I always welcome a chance to look foolish: It seems to me that to evaluate whether there’s an anomaly in data about 9th vs. EI walk-offs, you need to calculate expected walk-offs in the 9th vs. EI. To do that, what you need to find is the rate of game-ending events in the 10th, 11th . . . (which is just the number of games of each duration) In theory, the ratios should all be close;… Read more »

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Except, epm, we’re not talking about all walk-off events, just walk-off home runs. But, putting that aside, if I understand your point, it’s that any walk-off opportunity in Inning N had to be preceded by a walk-opportunity in Inning N-1, for all N >= 10. Thus, the likelihood of a walk-off event in each inning after 9 is limited by the likelihood of the game progressing to that point. Thus, there aren’t many 13th inning walk-off home runs simply because there aren’t many 13-inning games. Taking it a step further, you are suggesting that the sum of the probabilities of… Read more »

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Yes, that’s close to the idea, Doug, and your calculation of 70% probability would reflect the relation I was suggesting. I did indeed get lost and let walk-off homer slip into walk-off event. I think we can assume the relative rates would be identical. A little more precisely, I’m not actually suggesting that “the sum of the probabilities of walk-off events in innings 10 and beyond approximates the probability of a 9th-inning walk-off event.” I’m suggesting a way to test whether that proposition is reasonable empirically. If a P-I seach shows this ratio holds for the relation of innings >10/10,… Read more »

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Doug, I may be nitpicking here but wouldn’t the probability of a tie game in the eighth going to extras need to also include the probability that both teams score exactly a run apiece in the ninth + the prob. each team scores two apiece + etc.? I’ll guess you’re going to say it won’t make much of a difference, using the same reasoning as above that each subsequent event won’t add much to the overall probability total, but I’d still like to hear what you have to say. Also, where are you getting 70%? Is that a generally accepted… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

According to the PI’s “Inning Summary” finder: In 2012, 217 games ended the 8th inning tied, while 2,206 ended the 8th inning with one team ahead. Of the 217 games that ended the 8th inning tied, 127 were also tied after nine, while 90 were resolved in the ninth. Of the 2,206 games that had one team ahead after 8, 65 ended the ninth tied. So of 192 extra inning games in 2012, 127 (66%) got there after being tied through 8, while 65 (34%) got there despite one team being ahead through 8. At least that’s the way I… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Also using the same tool (though a different table), one can get the data to learn that in 2012, 72.9% of all half-innings were scoreless, while 76.1% of all half-innings within the ninth inning were scoreless.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Picking up on Doug’s thought @72, trying to come up with a simpler formulation: Def.: “Sudden death innings” are innings that begin tied and which, if the inning ends with the tie broken, end the game. Hypothesis 1: the proportion of sudden death innings resolved by a game ending event is constant for all sudden death innings. Hypothesis 2: that proportion equals about 49%. — The data birtelcom provides @77 are not particularly good news for Doug and me. That preliminary evidence suggests that H2 is false: 41% of sudden death ninth innings ended in a decision, not 49%. Since… Read more »

Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Response to bstar @76. I ignored the equal scoring scenario (I mentioned that I did that @72). However, since I wrote that, it occurs to me that it wouldn’t be that hard to add it into the model. That is, accepting the 70% chance of not scoring for each half-inning, there would be a 9% chance of both teams scoring in an inning (0.3 x 0.3) and (SWAG here) maybe one third of the time both teams score the same number of runs. Thus, you might add a 3% chance of extending the game to the 49% chance of both… Read more »

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Thanks for the response, Doug. There I go again, not reading a comment closely enough.

You could try using birtelcom’s @78 numbers instead of 70%, but that would make your simple model more complex, of course.

Andy’s point is a great one.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Sorry – I just read Doug@80 & bstar@81, but I want to modify my own comment @79 because the logic was not right, or rather, was incomplete. Logically, the missing 9th inning walk-offs would come from games that were not sudden death 9th innings at their start, but either became sudden death in mid-inning or involved a come-back bottom of the 9th. (I think that’s been implied by the methods others have been using, and my approach erred in failing to see it.) Using birtelcom’s 2012 figures, we could expect that games of those descriptions would have tended to raise… Read more »

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I don’t bother with these “apologies”. They consist solely of carefully scripted legal talk, designed to take as little responsibility for one’s actions as possible and without ever unreservedly apologising for anything.

Timmy Pea
Timmy Pea
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Agreed, sounds like spin. He should say nothing.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

You’re not wrong John. And no apology to the sample collector. Major fail.

I’ll just say that I’m happy he finally got his just desserts though I would have preferred a longer suspension.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Please, somebody just come out and say: “Look, I’m a mega millionaire, and I like feeling super strong and having vigorous sex with crazy hot women… and I want to keep it going as long as possible. In 20 years most of the methods I’ve used will probably be standard stuff that everybody does, but at the moment some of them are against the “rules.” I knowingly broke the rules, and I am NOT sorry. In fact, I consider myself the leading edge of physiology, and you should all thank me. I’m going to go on a long indulgent vacation… Read more »

Timmy Pea
Timmy Pea
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Braun not only lied and cheated, he let some poor stiff that collects urine samples twist in the wind for 2 years. Braun insinuated the collector not only made a mistake, but may have sabotaged the sample. Braun’s name is tarnished forever, like ARod.

Mike L
Mike L
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I am not a fan of Ryan Braun, and certainly not of ARod (when that particular shoe drops) but I can’t help but feel deflated by this. I (foolishly) hoped that when the owners, MLB and the MLBPA finally came down absolutely clearly on this point, that PED use would mostly be confined to fringe players desperate to hang on. Clearly I don’t understand the mind of the highly competitive athlete and the risky behavior they can indulge in. To me, other sports are entertainment. Baseball is personal. I don’t feel anything other then disappointment.

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Most WAR in the NL, 2008-2013:
Braun 33.3
Utley 32.9
Votto 31.9
Pujols 31.8
Wright 26.6

Fortunately, the suspension means Utley, and likely Votto, should easily pass Braun on that list. And Votto should pass Braun on the list below any day.

Most WAR in the NL, 2009-2013:
Braun 28.7
Votto 28.6
McCutchen 24.0
Utley 23.9
Tulowitzki 23.3

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Those WAR totals I listed are for everyday players only. If you add in pitchers, Kershaw becomes a factor, especially over the 2009-2013 period. Over the 2008-2013, Kershaw has total WAR (his pitching non-pitching WAR combined) of 30.2, ahead of Wright for fifth. Over the 2009-2013 period, if you combine his pitching and non-pitching WAR, Clayton’s already at the top of the list, with 29.1 WAR.

JasonZ
11 years ago

Ryan Braun… He must be a graduate of the Paula Deen Charm School to offer an apology like that. As for Aroid, I think he us going to be suspended for a long time. As a Yankee fan, I hope he takes the hint. Consider this, Derek Jeter on the DL with a grade 1 quad sprain is in the dugout supporting his team. Aroid, same injury, also on the DL and yet he is absent. I hope this means that the Yankees know he is about to be suspended and are keeping him away on purpose. As Rick Sutcliffe… Read more »

JasonZ
11 years ago

Ed,

I am no lawyer, and I too agree that the collector deserves an apology.

But I wonder if legally he was advised to not mention the collector due to a possible civil suit.

Even so, if I am the collector, I have already spoken to my attorney.

bstar
11 years ago

“So, who’s the most valuable relief tandem this year?” Sorry to be a Braves shill, but you’ve got to throw Atlanta’s tandem of Craig Kimbrel/Luis Avilan into the discussion. ERA-wise, they only lose out to the Grilli/Melancon duo by two-thousandths of a point: Melancon/Grilli combined: 1.432 ERA CKimbrel/Avilan combined: 1.434 ERA Kimbrel and Avilan are 5th and 6th in baseball in reliever ERA this year. BTW, Pittsburgh’s set-up duo of Melancon/Justin Wilson would place third among duos with a combined 1.44 ERA, although John I guess you were going for set-up/closer tandems. I personally think that WAR is a poor… Read more »

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

This is fun, so I’m going to continue as I can talk about anything involving Craig Kimbrel every day of the week. Pittsburgh’s duo has taken a step back. Jason Grilli got touched up last night for 2 ER in 0.2 vs. Washington and also landed himself on the 15-day DL. It will be interesting to see if Melancon/Justin Wilson can step into the closer’s role and still dominate as they have to this point. Grilli is a good example of why WAR for relievers doesn’t necessarily tell us that much. After last night’s outing, there are 35 other relievers… Read more »

RJ
RJ
11 years ago

I did appreciate Juan Francisco and the Ever Diminishing Pitches. Great punchline.

Doug
Doug
11 years ago

The only other major-league Caleb since 1872 also played today Is that ever weird – 140 years without a player with that name, and then two debut in the same season. We’ll have to wait for next year for a Caleb vs Caleb matchup, as Gindl came up after the Twins and Brewers had finished their play for the season (and Theilbar missed those games in May, in any event). Ironic that, as natural rivals in neighboring states, the Twins and Brewers played each other 6 times every season from 2001 to 2012 but in 2013, with inter-league play every… Read more »

Disco
Disco
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

It’s not *that* weird when you think about it. That name has become more popular over the years, so those people would be arriving in MLB about now.

http://www.babycenter.com/babyNameAllPops.htm?babyNameId=810

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

@74/Disco,

My cousin’s daughter just had a boy that they named Caleb, so maybe there’ll be another one in MLB about 22/23 years from now…