Circle of Greats 1949-Part 2 Balloting

This post is for voting and discussion in the twenty-fourth round of balloting for the Circle of Greats.  This round completes the addition to the ballot of those players born in 1949.  Rules and lists are after the jump.

Players born in 1949 are being brought on to the COG eligible list over two rounds — the top half of the alphabet in the last round and the bottom half of the alphabet this round.  The new group joins the holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full group eligible to receive your votes this round.  The new group of 1949-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must (as with each new birth-year group) have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 career Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers).

Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players.  The one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats.  Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility.  Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility.  Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.

All voting for this round closes at 11:00 PM EDT on Wednesday, July 17, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:00 PM EDT Monday, July 15.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1949 Round 2 Vote Tally .  I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes.  Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover players; additional player columns from the new born-in-1949 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players.  The 11 current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same.  The newest group of 1949 birth-year guys are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played. In total there were 42 players born in 1949 who met the “10 seasons played or 20 WAR” minimum requirement.  21 of those are being added to the eligible list this round (alphabetically from Gary Lavelle through Richie Zisk).  The 21 players higher in the alphabet had their chance last round.

Holdovers:
Lou Whitaker (eligibility guaranteed for 9 rounds)
John Smoltz (eligibility guaranteed for 7 rounds)
Alan Trammell (eligibility guaranteed for 7 rounds)
Craig Biggio (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Bobby Grich (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Edgar Martinez (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Roberto Alomar (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Kenny Lofton (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Eddie Murray (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Ryne Sandberg (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dave Winfield (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)

Everyday Players (born in 1949, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Ted Simmons
Mike Schmidt
Ben Oglivie
Garry Maddox
Jerry Morales
John Mayberry
Andre Thornton
Richie Zisk
John Milner
Lenny Randle
John Wockenfuss
Jerry Martin
Bake McBride
Greg Pryor
Frank Taveras
John Wathan

Pitchers (born in 1949, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Jerry Reuss
Rick Reuschel
Steve Rogers
Dave Tomlin
Gary Lavelle

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Dalton Mack
Editor
11 years ago

Schmidt, Grich, Lofton.

Chris C
Chris C
11 years ago

Mike Schmidt, Craig Biggio, Edgar Martinez

Insert Name Here
Insert Name Here
11 years ago

Initial vote, based solely on merit (no strategy yet): 1. Mike Schmidt (8.0 WAR/162 during 1974-87) 2. Kenny Lofton (6.7 WAR/162 during 1992-99) 3. Bobby Grich (6.6 WAR/162 during 1972-83) This COG slot should be a lock for Schmidt. Question is who gets to continue on the ballot. Here’s my ranking of the other HOF-worthy candidates: 4. Alan Trammell (6.4 WAR/162 during 1980-90) 5. Ryne Sandberg (6.2 WAR/162 during 1984-92) 6. Craig Biggio (5.8 WAR/162 during 1991-99) 7. Lou Whitaker (5.5 WAR/162 during 1979-93) 8. Eddie Murray (5.7 WAR/162 during 1978-86) 9. Rick Reuschel (5.5 WAR/162 during 1973-80) 10. Edgar… Read more »

MJ
MJ
11 years ago

Mike Schmidt, Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker

Phil
11 years ago

Schmidt, Alomar, Winfield (better threesome than Stock Aitken Waterman). Absent strategic voting, Schmidt gets 100%.

Bix
Bix
11 years ago

Schmidt, Grich, Martinez

bstar
bstar
11 years ago

Michael Jack Schmidt, Kenny Lofton, Craig Biggio

shout-out: Garry Maddox. Watching the Secretary of Defense gracefully roam the outfield in Veterans Stadium was a true pleasure.

first name COG vote: Bake McBride

Doug
Doug
11 years ago

Schmidt, Grich, Martinez

wx
wx
11 years ago

Mike Schmidt, Lou Whitaker, Edgar Martinez

ATarwerdi96
ATarwerdi96
11 years ago

Mike Schmidt, Edgar Martinez, Bobby Grich

Jeff Hill
Jeff Hill
11 years ago

Mike Schmidt, Kenny Lofton, John Smoltz

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago


Schmidt
Lofton
Whitaker

David Horwich
David Horwich
11 years ago

Alomar, Lofton, Schmidt

mo
mo
11 years ago

Schmidt, Reuschel, Whitaker

Nick Pain
Nick Pain
11 years ago

Schmidt, Reuschel, Whitaker

latefortheparty
latefortheparty
11 years ago

Mike Schmidt
Lou Whitaker
Ted Simmons

TJay
11 years ago

Schmidt, Winfield, Simba

brp
brp
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Was wondering why I didn’t see Simba on his page. Also wondering about Tom Wilhelmsen the other day, he’s pretty commonly referred to as The Bartender.

Anyway, Michael Jack Schmidt is a dead lock, so I’m giving a homer pick to Ted Simmons. Simmons should be in the HOF… not the COG, but screw it, he gets a vote.

Schmidt
Grich
Simmons

Out of curiosity – where does Simba rank in career WAR for catchers? I have to imagine he’s close to top-ten.

brp
brp
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Even if you mark him as the 13th-best catcher, that’s pretty good for 130+ years of baseball. Certainly wouldn’t be the worst guy in the HOF. Thanks for checking that out, I’m supposed to be working 🙂

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

@36/brp,

As for actual HOF catchers, I’d put Ted Simmons ahead of Schalk, Ferrell, and maybe Lombardi and Bresnahan.

JAWS in B-R puts him ahead of the above guys, plus Campanella (lost at least 3/4 years to segregation) and Ewing (19th century seasons were considrably shorter).

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Ted Simmons has over 50 career WAR but never had a season above 5.5 WAR. I assume that’s fairly rare but I have no idea how to search something like that.

Abbott
Abbott
11 years ago
Reply to  brp

Wilhelmsen was out of baseball a few years ago and tending bar while waiting for the call.

Gary Bateman
Gary Bateman
11 years ago

Schmidt, Alomar, Smoltz

Abbott
Abbott
11 years ago

Schmidt, Biggio, Reuschel

JEV
JEV
11 years ago

Schmidt, Smoltz, Biggio

Kirk
Kirk
11 years ago

Schmidt, Reuschel & Alomar

Dr. Remulak
Dr. Remulak
11 years ago

Schmidt, Biggio, Winfield

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
11 years ago

Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasons:

Schmidt 74.3
Trammell 44.7
Grich 43.6
Whitaker 42.7
Martinez 41.3
Reuschel 40.6
Smoltz 40.1
Lofton 39.3
Sandberg 38.8
Alomar 36.8
Biggio 36.3
Murray 34.9
Winfield 31.7
Simmons 28.5
Rogers 26.3

Schmidt, Martinez, Smoltz

Mike HBC
Mike HBC
11 years ago

Schmidt, Smoltz, Grich

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
11 years ago

Schmidt, Murray, Alomar

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
11 years ago

Mike Schmidt
Bobby Grich

Those two are the obvious ones. For me, the next vote has to be either for Alan Trammell or Ryne Sandberg. I hate to let one of them go (I think I’ve been voting for them virtually since each came on the ballot), but it’s necessary. In Trammell’s favor, I have him as the better player. But I’m going the other way, in the hopes that a guy who I think probably deserves the CoG doesn’t fall off the ballot.

Ryne Sandberg

The Diamond King
11 years ago

Schmidt, Murray, Smoltz

KalineCountry
KalineCountry
11 years ago

Trammell
Whitaker
Grich

Brent
Brent
11 years ago

Schmidt, Trammell, Whitaker. Shout out to John Mayberry, the Duke (John Wathan) and Greg Pryor for contributing to some fine Royals’ teams. Big Rasberry to Jerry Martin.

Brent
Brent
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

In KC at the time of the incident, it was reported that he was the connection to the dealer for the other guys who were busted too, hence my dislike. However, I admit that my internet research today after my original comment would indicate that it was Blue that was the original connection.

koma
koma
11 years ago

John Smoltz, Roberto Alomar, Mike Schmidt

GrandyMan
GrandyMan
11 years ago

Schmidt Reuschel (sick of voting for Smoltz) Sandberg (I guess nobody loves a Ryno) As a young baseball card collector, I often got Reuschel and Reuss mixed up. It’s bad enough they had similar surnames — their career statistics are, on the surface, reasonably similar (especially their W-L records.) Of course, this was before I knew Reuschel gave up way fewer unearned runs, pitched in band boxes most of his career, was usually stuck on lousy teams while Reuss was with pennant contenders, etc., etc… Shout-outs to two-thirds of the ’80 Phillies outfield (McBride and Maddox), as well as Scranton… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago

Well, I’ve reached the point where my strategery cannot save every single player about to fall off the cliff of one-year eligibility. Plus, I must acknowledge the awesomeness of the redhead at third base: – Mike Schmidt (best player of the 80s; Rickey Henderson, George Brett, Robin Yount, Tim Raines, Eddie Murray, Cal Ripken, Trammell and Whitaker, Dale Murphy, Wade Boggs also honourable mention) – Roberto Alomar (we need a second baseman!) – Ryne Sandberg (we need another second baseman!) Honourable mention to Bake McBride for one of the most awesome Afros ever – though everyone is starting out at… Read more »

Andy
Andy
11 years ago

Schmidt
Smoltz
Biggio

bells
bells
11 years ago

Does anyone feel like talking about Bobby Grich? The CoG has moved somewhat beyond my years of remembering sports (I was born in 1980) and I know nothing about Bobby Grich beyond the stats I see. Seems like he was underrated and underappreciated, based on his solid numbers and poor numbers for MVP and HoF voting… more generally, as we move back in time beyond the memory span of the younger folks here I have hopes that maybe there can be some more anecdotal discussion of players from those who followed them more directly. Comparing stats is great, but what… Read more »

Chris C
Chris C
11 years ago
Reply to  bells

I was born in 1971 so I followed baseball for the later half/third of Grich’s career. I’ll qualify that I’m a New Englander and didn’t see him play often. I remember him as being a solid but not spectacular player. In traditional stats he was a 15/80/.275 guy. I never considered him as HOF worthy and it shocked me to find out the sabemetric community held him such high regard. I’l go along that he was a hidden gem but I can’t wrap my head around that enough to personally rate him higher than Biggio/Alomar/Sandberg.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  bells

@43/bells, A big part of Grich’s problem is that a lot of his value was hidden beneath the surface, not revealed by the traditional Triple Crown stats. He had an excellent OBA and good power (.371/.424 vs. league average of .323/.384 for his career) for a second baseman, but in a quite low-scoring (AIR of 93) era. He only once batted .300 over a full season or had 100+ RBI, and had 20+ HR only twice, never scored a 100 runs or came close to 200 hits. Those are the sort of accomplishments people paid attention to then. But he… Read more »

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

One other thing that hurt Grich….he came up as a SS and was moved to second because of Mark Belanger. The data that we have shows that Grich had the glove to play short (+10 Rfield in 141 games). Had he stayed at short, the perception people have of him might be completely different. He may have also started some all-star games since there was no dominant SS in the AL at the time. But as a second baseman, there was no way he was getting voted in over fan favorite Rod Carew. Instead he had to compete for a… Read more »

bells
bells
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Thanks birtelcom, that’s great. It’s funny, I’ve become pretty familiar with sabermetric darlings, but even knowing what I feel is a good amount about players I didn’t know about before (like Blyleven, Ron Santo, Ted Simmons, Whitaker/Trammell, Reuschel, Brown, Lofton, etc etc) I have not really heard too much about ol’ Bobby. Maybe I have just missed the discussions about him, or maybe he’s the underrated player of underrated players.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

@53

Here’s another analysis of Grich, comparing him to Joe Gordon,recently elected to the HOF (though not at the time it was written):

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/12/if_gordon_then.php

Sorry,but I don’t how to activate a link.

Phil
11 years ago
Reply to  bells

One interesting thing is that the writers of the early ’70s *did* seem to have an appreciation of what he contributed above and beyond the marquee stats of the day. Long before WAR, he went 14/19/9 in MVP voting from ’72-74, even though he tended to hit around .260 with 15 or so HR, and his RBI were 50/50/82. You could certainly argue that he should have finished higher with WARs of 6.0/8.3/7.3, but my point is that the writers obviously accounted for his defense and adjusted for his offense within the context of a second basemen. I don’t think… Read more »

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago
Reply to  Phil

I think you’re right, Phil. My memory of contemporary commentary on Grich is all of the “most underrated” type, and my sense is that this even preceded his move to the Angels. That said, it’s also true that I don’t recall *much* coverage of Grich apart from the comments on his being underrated. A contrast (again, just my memory) would be Biggio, whom I recall moving from the “underrated” category to celebrated.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Phil

When Grich first joined the O’s (in their heyday) as a reserve infielder I remember Phil Rizzuto saying that if he were on any other team he would be a starting player.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Phil

@63/birtelcom, I was going to comment on the 1972-1974 MVP voting (in response to #58), especially how terrible the 1974 MVPs were, but you did a better job. All I can add is what you didn’t discuss in the NL. Rose won in 1973 and Garvey in 1974, but Bench in 1972 was the RBI leaders. So, 4 of 6 MVP winners in that time period were also the RBI leaders. In 1972, Johnny Bench is a quite reasonable choice, though I would’ve gone with Steve Carlton. I understand that many people can’t get past the the concept that an… Read more »

Phil
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

I don’t disagree with anything you guys say, so maybe it’s more accurate to say that while writers were obviously influenced heavily by RBI near the top of their ballots (Baylor a few years later being the first example that always comes to my mind), they were also very partial to middle infielders. The ’72-74 lists are heavy with them–some of their picks look prescient by newer metrics (besides Grich, they had Campaneris 16th in ’72, with a .240 BA but 5.1 WAR), some look hideous (Brinkman finished 9th in ’72, with a WAR under 1.0), most fall somewhere in… Read more »

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
11 years ago

Ooh, I gotta think about this. On the one hand, I’d like to make a strategic vote to keep some guys on the ballot. On the other hand, can I really leave off Mike Schmidt? I mean, he’s Michael Jack! Best 3B ever!

Nadig
Nadig
11 years ago

Schmidt, Martinez, Trammell.

Darien
11 years ago

Schmidt, Trammell, and Lofton.

--bill
--bill
11 years ago

Mike Schmidt, Rick Reuschel, Bobby Grich.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago

Schmidt, Smoltz (almost a shame to have to mess up the phonetics with a third name), Trammell

RonG
RonG
11 years ago

Schmidt, Simmons, Grich

Arsen
Arsen
11 years ago

Schmidt, McBride and Maddox. I grew up watching them. McBride was one of the most exciting players I ever saw in person, Maddox one of the most graceful and Schmidt the best. Can’t believe they all ended up on the same ballot.

elkboy3
elkboy3
11 years ago

Schmidt, Martinez, Murray

mosc
mosc
11 years ago

The obvious and two guys I want to stay on the ballot eh?

Schmidt, Winfield, Sandberg

Aidan Mattson
Aidan Mattson
11 years ago

Schmidt, Edgar Martinez and Murray.

J.R.
J.R.
11 years ago

Isn’t this just an exercise to see who finishes second, by a large margin?

Michael Jack, Biggio, and Grich.

Mike HBC
Mike HBC
11 years ago
Reply to  J.R.

Here’s a different answer from birtelcom’s: Yes, but for Circle of Greats purposes, that’s very important. 1948 is probably the last chance any of these guys have to get in. ’47 has Bench, Fisk, and Nolan, and ’46 has Reggie. By the 1946 Part II vote, three of them will be in. ’45 brings Carew, ’44 has Seaver and Carlton, and ’43 has everyone’s favorite, Joe Morgan. So, by the 1943 Part II vote, six of those guys will be in, and there will still be two left. (Keep in mind that, in this whole process, I’m only including players… Read more »

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike HBC

Mike HBC – “the players who don’t enter the CoG on the next ballot almost certainly never will.” I disagree. There’s a long dry period beginning in 1933. Here are the best candidates by WAR for that period: 1933: Rocky Colavito (44.6) 1932: Maury Wills (39.8) 1931: This is the “exception year” as Mays, Mathews, Mantle, Banks, Bunning and Ken Boyer are all above 60 WAR. 1930: Bob Friend (47.0) 1929: Curt Simmons: (42.7) 1928: Whitey Ford (53.9) 1927: Richie Ashburn (63.4) 1926: Robin Roberts (83.1) and Duke Snider (66.5) 1925: Yogi Berra (59.3) 1924: Gil Hodges (45.0) 1923: Larry… Read more »

bells
bells
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

I think the post(or is it pre)-1931 period is kind of a sea change in terms of player quality. I know this was talked about many ballots ago, but when this exercise first started it seemed clear that there were less quality players, and of course less players overall, before 1931. I guess that’s natural, starting in about 1960 there were many more teams and therefore many more players and more of a chance to be a star. Anyway, as it relates to our exercise, I agree that whoever doesn’t get elected in 1948’s ballot is gonna have to wait… Read more »

bells
bells
11 years ago
Reply to  bells

Okay, after going back and poring through the candidates between 1920 and 1890, I’ve gotta say that there’ll be plenty of opportunity for those overlooked right now to get back in it. There’s a bit of activity with some greats between 1921-1918, but then until a big 1903 there’s really only a couple of players who are a huge slam dunk over any of the players who are on the ballot right now. I’ll be so bold as to predict that by 1890, everyone currently on the ballot will be in the CoG (including Alomar, Murray, Lofton), and guys that… Read more »

aweb
aweb
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Sure, by year there are some pretty thin crops, but 1931 alone has 3-4 certain candidates and 2-3 very good ones, which gets you to 1926. That’s not going to reduce a backlog at all. Except 1931 might eliminate every backlog candidate except whoever the bottom 6 are at that point (Mays, Mantle, Mathews all seem like locks to me). 1947 and 1944 also look like “thin out” years, with multiple very strong candidates. I hope that some of the backlog gets weeded out at that point. Was there a policy on Negro league players established? It doesn’t look like… Read more »

Mike HBC
Mike HBC
11 years ago
Reply to  aweb

@birtelcom: So what about, for example, Roy Campanella? His MLB stint was pretty amazing, but it was still only 1,215 games; regardless, 10 seasons and 34.2 WAR put him on the ballot. I understand that the CoG rules set out are to only consider what a player did in Major League Baseball, but if a guy has the WAR or seasons, he’s in the conversation, and it would be very hard to only take their MLB experience into account (or to inquire as to why each Campanella voter chose him). I’m not saying you should change either the rules or… Read more »

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago
Reply to  aweb

My intent is to treat time spent in the Negro Leagues the same as I do time lost to military service- do the best I can at estimating what value the player might have had and then crediting them for it. In addition to Campanella other Negro League players who will be on the ballot include Ernie Banks, Jackie Robinson, Larry Doby, Minnie Minoso, Monte Irvin, Don Newcombe and Hank Thompson. Mays and Aaron also spent some time in the Negro Leagues but probably don’t need any extra credit to make the COG. Some who play in the majors but… Read more »

Luis Gomez
Luis Gomez
11 years ago

Schmidt (of course), Alomar, Whitaker.

Joel
Joel
11 years ago

Schmidt
Reuschel
Murray

jeff b
jeff b
11 years ago

Schmidt winfield and Murray

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago

Trammell, Sandberg, Reuschel Ted Simmon’s Hall of Stats score is 113, even though I think that includes an adjustment that Adam makes for catchers to bring their scores in line with other positions. That make him the 11th ranked catcher, 10th for our purposes since Pudge Rodriguez is not eligible. The cut off point for the top 110 or so scores is about 125. Six catchers (Bench, Carter, Piazza, Fisk, Berra & Dickey) exceed that mark. Also ahead of Simmons are Gabby Hartnett at 121, Mickey Cochran at 120 and 19th Century star Buck Ewing at 115. Right behind him… Read more »

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

I admit that I didn’t consider Reuschel this time because I didn’t see his name so far down on the ballot (I wish we could see the players ranked by WAR instead of playing time). Scanning only the first few names is a habit I’m going to have to break. Right now I like Reuschel for the HOF but not the top 112. One argument I read about recently was that since Big Daddy was such an extreme groundball pitcher, he may not fully warrant the huge boost he gets from pitching in hitter-friendly Wrigley all those years because the… Read more »

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Actually, Reuschel is listed second among pitchers on the ballot. I just flat-out missed him. 🙂

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

That pretty much repudiates that argument. I should have checked first. Thanks, birtelcom.

aweb
aweb
11 years ago

Schmidt, Grich, Trammell