Clearing the decks, getting ready for Tuesday’s full slate:
@Dodgers 3, Giants 1: Creo que este chico va a hacer. (translation) We can’t help noticing everything about Yasiel Puig, including his strikeout-to-walk ratio (17/3) and his tendency to swing at the first pitch (41%, or half again the MLB average). But as to the latter, there’s no one right approach. And this table of 2013’s highest 1st-pitch-swing rates suggests that an aggressive approach suits talented hitters just fine (see right-most column):
| Rk | PA | Pit | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Gomez | 294 | 1100 | 3.74 | 67% | 17% | 20% | 34% | 29% | 83% | 55% | 75% | 51% |
| 2 | Pablo Sandoval# | 246 | 840 | 3.41 | 67% | 12% | 14% | 38% | 36% | 88% | 59% | 84% | 48% |
| 3 | Josh Hamilton* | 304 | 1102 | 3.63 | 65% | 13% | 29% | 30% | 29% | 87% | 56% | 67% | 45% |
| 4 | Freddie Freeman* | 276 | 1069 | 3.87 | 62% | 15% | 20% | 36% | 29% | 85% | 53% | 76% | 43% |
| 5 | Yadier Molina | 292 | 1026 | 3.51 | 64% | 20% | 12% | 31% | 37% | 80% | 51% | 85% | 42% |
| 6 | B.J. Upton | 262 | 1004 | 3.83 | 61% | 24% | 24% | 28% | 24% | 76% | 46% | 69% | 42% |
| 7 | Miguel Cabrera | 345 | 1265 | 3.67 | 62% | 18% | 17% | 34% | 31% | 82% | 50% | 79% | 41% |
| 8 | John Buck | 255 | 971 | 3.81 | 64% | 22% | 24% | 27% | 28% | 78% | 50% | 70% | 41% |
| — | Yasiel Puig | 82 | 255 | 3.11 | 65% | 13% | 24% | 27% | 36% | 87% | 56% | 72% | 41% |
| 9 | Matt Holliday | 306 | 1146 | 3.75 | 63% | 21% | 16% | 31% | 32% | 79% | 50% | 79% | 40% |
| 10 | Ian Desmond | 300 | 1105 | 3.68 | 66% | 24% | 19% | 28% | 29% | 76% | 50% | 75% | 40% |
| 11 | Chris Davis* | 319 | 1223 | 3.83 | 61% | 18% | 25% | 31% | 27% | 82% | 50% | 70% | 38% |
One more teensy little thing … When Puig has hit the first pitch, he’s 13 for 15 with 4 HRs. Yet after falling behind 0-and-1, he’s still 7 for 25 with 2 HRs. Let the young man alone.
- Kenley Jansen keeps improving his control. He walked 12% of batters in his first 2 years, 8% last year, 4% this year. Remember, this converted catcher still has less than 250 professional innings. And he hasn’t sacrificed strikeouts in the process, still fanning 38%. You can count all 60-IP relief seasons of at least 9.0 SO/BB on your fingers … if you share a certain trait with this fellow.
- The WAR leader among first-year players is Hyun-jin Ryu, with 2.4 WAR through 15 starts. There have been just two 5-WAR first-years since 1985, Brandon Webb 2003 and Freddy Garcia 1999. Ryu is tied for the NL lead with 14 GDPs.
- Season-high 3rd straight win for LA, second time they’ve done it.
- Giants have one HR in their last 10 games, a solo shot in a 7-2 loss.
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Indians 5, @Orioles 2: Michael Brantley had the two big knocks, first punishing an intentional walk with a left-on-left 2-run single for the Tribe’s first lead in the 6th, then punishing a down-under-ball to widen the gap in the 8th. A couple of Indians parachuted out of free-fall: Nick Swisher had 2 hits and a walk, driving in their first run in the 6th. And Mark Reynolds got on in front of both of Brantley’s hits.
- Even with those hits, Swish and Reynolds have batted .157 in 140 combined ABs since May 30, with one extra-base hit and 8 RBI.
- Terry Francona has seen the light: First sign of trouble in the 6th, Ubaldo‘s gotta come out. They’re hitting .370 off him in that inning. He’s been lifted during the 6th in his last 3 starts, and his relief has stranded all 5 men in those frames, helping the Tribe win all 3 games while keeping Ubaldo’s ERA to 2.81 despite a 1.50 WHIP.
RHP Darren O’Day has a significant platoon differential. So does LHB Brantley, with just one of his 21 career HRs coming against a southpaw (in 501 ABs). So how did Buck Showalter wind up with that matchup, with a runner on base in a one-run game? Here’s my guess at Buck’s thinking:
- The scheduled batters in the 8th were RH Mark Reynolds (the #6 hitter), LH Brantley, and RH Ryan Raburn, with RH Drew Stubbs to hit if anyone reached. That was the best possible sequence for O’Day, against a lineup whose nos. 1-5 went left-right-left-switch-switch.
- The key to the inning was getting Reynolds out. Buck could live with O’Day vs. Brantley with nobody on. When Reynolds got on, it messed up the whole inning.
- He could’ve brought LHP Brian Matusz in to face Brantley — but if he did, then (a) he’s burned O’Day on just one batter, and (b) either he does the same with Matusz, or else Matusz faces Raburn — a bad idea given Matusz’s career-long trouble with righties (plus Raburn’s own platoon edge).
- Therefore, O’Day pitches to Brantley.
But here’s what I think:
- Reynolds had faced O’Day three times before: walk, HR, single. Small sample, but worth pausing over.
- Raburn never would have hit against O’Day, anyway. We know that Jason Giambi would have pinch-hit against a RHP, because that’s just what he did after the HR, prompting Buck to bring in Matusz. So it really wasn’t the ideal sequence for O’Day; and once Reynolds got on, he was living on borrowed time, with Terry Francona’s lineup and bench structured to insure platoon edges.
- An alternative: RHP Tommy Hunter was already in the game, having gotten the last 6 outs very efficiently (24 pitches). Hunter has been death to RHBs this year — 9 for 73, all singles. Leave Hunter in to face Reynolds: He’s a former SP, and while working relief this year, he already has several games with more pitches and more batters than what he’d done here. Then bring in Matusz just for Brantley — there aren’t any consecutive lefties in the lineup, anyway — and then O’Day for Raburn. When Giambi pinch-hits, you can pitch around him (if you like) and face Drew Stubbs; or, if someone’s already on base for Giambi, you can bring in lefty Troy Patton.
- With O’Day in and Reynolds on base, Buck’s main options were (a) let O’Day face two lefties in a row (Brantley and PH Giambi), or (b) bring in Matusz for Brantley, and cross the Raburn bridge when you come to it. I think Matusz was the move — because with a man aboard, the first out of the inning is crucial; you can’t afford to look too far ahead. What do you think?
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Sunday
@Cubs 14, Astros 6: Ryan Sweeney had an RBI in 4 separate plate appearances, the first Cub to do that since at least 2010. (Checking that is labor-intensive, so I quit after 2011.) Anthony Rizzo had three RBI events; first time since 2011-08-06 that the Cubs had 2 such players in a game.
- Sweeney’s 6 RBI gave him 13 this year.
- First MLB game this year with multiple extra-base hits by 5 different players. There were 21 such games over the previous 5 years, with a high of 7 players in this one.
- Somehow, I missed the news that Henry Rodriguez had been flushed, er, traded to the Cubs. It’s a comfort to see that Henry came in for the 9th with a 9-run lead, and promptly walked the first man. He and Marmol are going to get along great. (Wrote that before hearing that Marmol was DFA’d, so I guess Rodriguez inherits the mantle. And this Tigers fan dearly hopes that Al Alburquerque is paying close attention to the news.)
- What does Anthony Rizzo have in common with Phil Cavarretta? They’re the only Cubs first basemen with a 4-run, 4-RBI game (since at least 1916). Cavaretta did it in a 24-2 romp during the Cubs’ last pennant season. In that game, Chicago had 28 hits, 8 walks, and no strikeouts — the only searchable no-K game of more than 25 hits.
- Rizzo is the 11th Cubs 1B with a 4-run game in the searchable era. Chicago hasn’t had many good first basemen since The Peerless Leader — six 5-WAR years by Cubs 1Bs since 1907.
- Rizzo also logged the first known game with all of these events: HR, double, single, HBP, SF. (Sac flies only became an official stat in 1954.)
- Chris Carter is one of 33 players with at least two 4-hit games this year. His .233 batting average is not the worst of that group; can you guess the guy who’s lower?
- Starving in the midst of plenty: Starlin Castro was the only Cubs starter without a hit, and he committed their only 2 errors, giving him 14 this year.
