Biggest Market Blues |

The three most populous metropolitan areas in the U.S., by far, are the New York, Los Angeles and Chicago areas. The smallest of the three, the Chicago metro area, had a 2012 population estimated at about 9.5 million people, about 40% more than that in the fourth largest metro area, the Dallas/Forth Worth/Arlington area.

These three giant metro areas have been continuously represented by a total of six major league franchises since 1962. Over that time, these six jumbo-market teams have, looked at collectively, been relatively successful, especially in recent years. The six teams as a group have not had a collective winning percentage below .500 in any full regular season since 1999, and have been collectively over .500 in 34 of the 51 seasons from and including 1962 through and including 2012. Their best years as a group have been 2008, when the six franchises produced a collective .564 winning percentage, followed by 1985 (.558), and 1998 (.554). More after the jump.

The Yankees and Dodgers are the two franchises with the top regular season winning percentages overall since 1962, and the White Sox and Angels have been pretty good as well, with the 10th and 12th best winning percentages since 1962 among the 30 franchises. The Mets and Cubs, at 23rd and 24th, have only partially offset the 1-2 placement of the Yankees and Dodgers.

The collective worst seasons for these biggest market teams have never been as bad as their collective best seasons were good. The very worst collective winning percentage season the six jumbo-market teams have ever had as a group was 1992, when they collectively won at a .460 pace, followed by 1968 (.461) and 1966 (.467).

How startling, then, to look at the current standings for 2013 and find these six mega-market teams (Yanks, Mets, White Sox, Cubs, Dodgers and Angels) sitting with a collective winning percentage of .444 through last night’s games. A full season finish at the current rate would be the worst ever single-season collective performance by these six teams, by far. I suspect the folks at MLB headquarters, and the TV networks that carry MLB, are not especially pleased at this state of affairs.

A table showing the season-by-season collective winning percentage of the six teams that have called the New York, LA or Chicago metro areas their home continuously since 1962, is below.

[table id=137 /]

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Doug

11 years ago

Philadelphia was still the 3rd largest market area as recently as the 1950 census. The 7 teams that represented those 3 largest markets from 1903-1950 were only .506 over that period.

Those teams were collectively under .500 in 17 of those 48 years, including 9 straight from 1938 to 1946. The longest streak at .500+ was the first 12 years from 1903 to 1914. The best collective mark was .566 in 1906, the worst .456 in 1944.

Timmy Pea

I think it reflects on a problem you can find in the municipal bodies that govern these cities as well. That is, throwing money at problems doesn’t make them better.

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birtelcom

Reply to Timmy Pea

In government and baseball both, money wisely used can help solve problems that would otherwise be much less amenable to solution.

Reply to birtelcom

Not spending money is sometimes very wise. Hamilton, Pujols, Wells, Arod, the Dodgers, Soriano with the Cubs. Check the standings of the teams that let these guys go. The Red Sox are doing great after dumping the crap on LA. St. Louis did not need Pujols, Texas is looking good not signing Hamilton.

Editor

John Autin

Timmy, I love the point you made. But I would question some of those examples. – Hamilton is being judged on less than half a year, or less than 10% of his recent contract. – Pujols is being judged on less than half a season. He may never again be as good as in his prime, but he was very good for the Angels last year, and may be again soon if his foot heals. – A-Rod was fantastic for his first 5 years with the Yankees. The rest of his contract looks like crap from here, but it’s not… Read more »

Reply to John Autin

Well Pujols will be playing for 8 more years! At up to $30 million a year. My point was how well the teams that let them go are. The Angles may one day soon be back on top, but the Cardinals might be the best team in baseball, right now. I love David Wright, but the Mets could be in last place without him. Of the six teams the 3 biggest cities/areas, only the Yankees really spend smart.

Sorry about that, I forgot about the Marlins being in last place.

Non-big market teams like Boston, Toronto, and Oakland actually really aren’t that small. The Sox have an intense following in all New England. The Jays have all of Canada, when I lived in Minnesota the Jays games were packed full of fans from Western Canada.

Abbott

…and the A’s have about 20,000 loyal followers in the East Bay.

Lawrence Azrin

Where was it specifically stated in this article that the Red Sox are _not_ a big-market team?? They may have have pretended they were a mid-market team a while ago, when John Harrington was in charge, but they’ve usually acted like a big-market team the last dozen years or so, since Henry/Werner took over.

The Blue Jays problem is different, in that they’re usually playing second fiddle to hockey (except in the early 90s).

oneblankspace

The Chicago Cu** have had 17 winning seasons in that 52-year period, and one where they finished exactly .500 — a winning-season percentage of .337. I can remember years where the Cubs and Mets battled it out for 5th place in the NL East.