Sunday game notes & musings

And now to the games. As always, I’m sorry if your faves are neglected; no slight is intended.

Sunday games

@Rangers 4, Red Sox 3: A sweet piece of 2-strike hitting helped Texas complete a sweep and grab a share of the majors’ best record, previously held by the BoSox alone. Boston rolled into town smokin’, winning 7 of 8 and averaging 5.3 R/G for the year. But Texas pitchers danced a three-step on those hot bats, allowing just 4 runs and 15 hits in 3 games, with 31 punchouts. Yu Darvish gave up two early HRs, including Big Papi’s 2-run shot, but he shut them down on 1 hit from the 3rd through 7th and finished with 14 Ks, tying his best. Nelson Cruz tied it up in the 6th with his own 2-run drive off Jon Lester, and a 2-out rally in the 9th, helped by a wild pitch, culminated in Adrian Beltre‘s punch over Pedroia.

  • The recent focus on strikeouts should raise appreciation of Beltre. Out of 91 batters with 50+ HRs since 2010, only Albert Pujols has a better ratio of HRs to whiffs, and just 2 others have a lower overall K rate (including his teammate, Ian Kinsler).
  • Jason Frasor got one big out, retiring Mike Napoli with 2 aboard to end the 8th. Napoli had a single in 10 ABs this series, and has gone 4 whole games without a ribby.
  • Lance Berkman was the 2nd #3 hitter this year to receive 2 IBBs in a game. Pujols had 2 such games, with Hamilton going 0-9 behind him.
  • Boston C David Ross homered and stole a base, the 2nd of his career. He’s the first backstop with that combo this year; there were 11 last year, with 2 by Miguel Olivo (who also had 2 games with a HR and a CS).
  • Kind of an arbitrary distinction, but … Is Ross the best #2 catcher of this generation? This is his 11th year of regular play, averaging about 200 PAs per year, with just one year in which he reached 300 PAs or started more than half his team’s games behind the plate (2007, 98 GS). He ‘s amassed 8.5 WAR, a 101 OPS+ and 38% CS in playing time equivalent to about 4 starting seasons. Of the other active, longtime backups — including Henry Blanco, Jose Molina, Yorvit Torrealba — only Kelly Shoppach can hang with Ross on both sides of the ball. Shoppach has a big platoon split, but Ross hits both sides about the same. Why did he never take hold as a #1? Perhaps because his one year in that role was one of his worst years at the plate. This may be the role he’s best suited for.
  • (Thanks to Steve Helsing for information on this play — apparently not a sac attempt.) I don’t understand this strategy: Tied in the home 7th, Craig Gentry led off with a single, and Kinsler bunted him up. Gentry’s a base-stealer, 37 for 45 in less than 600 career PAs. Kinsler’s a pretty good contact hitter, and he’s a power hitter, especially at home (.528 career SLG). Why bunt Kinsler, to set up Elvis Andrus? Andrus does have a career .335 BA with a man on 2nd base only (61 for 182), but a lot of his hits don’t score the runner, partly because 20% of his career hits stayed on the infield. Looked at in those terms, his RBI average is just .209 in that spot. It’s nuts to have Kinsler make an out on purpose to set up Andrus.

Marlins 14, @Phillies 2: On any given Sunday … Miami scored 9 runs off Roy Halladay, in this order: 2-run double, 3-run triple, 4-run HR. (Their next tally was a 1-run single, but much later.) Halladay walked 3 and hit a man, just in the 1st inning, and afterwards dropped a sore-shoulder bombshell.

  • Adeiny Hechavarria (4-1-2-7) topped by 2 the prior RBI record for a Marlins SS. He has 10 RBI this year on 3 hits. It’s the 2nd game this year with 7+ RBI but 1 run or less; there were 22 such games in the past 22 years. A current manager is the only guy since 1949 with 7+ RBI and no runs. (Oddly, the othertwo such games in searchable history happened 5 weeks apart in 1948.)
  • A thoroughly modern game forJustin Ruggiano (3-4-2-3): plunked in his first 2 trips, then whiffed, walked, and homered twice — his first 2-HR game. He had just one prior HBP in 640 PAs.
  • First time over 8 runs for Miami this year. They had totaled 8 runs in Kevin Slowey‘s prior 6 starts. Spread the runs around better, he could be 6-0 instead of 1-2. His worst game was 3 runs in 6 IP. The scores of his other games were 0-3, 0-2, 1-2, 2-1, 3-4 and 2-1.
  • It’s Philly’s biggest home loss margin since 2007, 2nd-biggest loss margin ever against the Marlins.
  • In the Philly 3rd, down 9-0, after a leadoff walk, Raul Valdes bunted — a sacrifice attempt? — and popped into a DP. Valdes began the day 5 for 11 with 2 doubles. I don’t know what to say.

Cardinals 10, @Brewers 1: St. Louis hammered an unusually wild Marco Estrada, sweeping a 4-game set against Milwaukee for the first time and becoming the first NL team to 20 wins. Jaime Garcia won his 2nd straight of 8 IP and 1 run. Estrada came in averaging 1.9 BB/9 since the start of 2012, but he hit a man and walked 5 within the first 3 frames, 2 more than his previous high. Estrada forced in 2 runs in the 6-run 2nd, and when he did hit the zone, bad things happened.

  • STL has allowed 2 runs or less in 16 of 31 games, tops in the majors.

@Royals 6, White Sox 5: Last time out, Addison Reed survived two 9th-inning walks in a 2-run game. Not this time. Billy Butler split the gap on a 2-out, full-count pitch (after starting 1-2), and the free start helped C George Kottaras score from 1st to tie the game. Lorenzo Cain began the 10th with his 3rd hit and later stole second, but there he remained with 2 outs. An IBB to Chris Getz and an UIBB to Kottaras brought up Alex Gordon, who lofted one to right that fooled the heck out of Alex Rios. It bounced safely on the grass, and the Royals did the same.

  • 2nd straight game where Rios missed a very costly play that a good RF would have made.
  • KC brought a 3-1 lead into the 7th behind Wade Davis — his 3rd real good start, against 3 stinkers — but the usually reliable bullpen got ripped for 4 runs that inning.
  • Chicago’s .281 team OBP is the worst in the majors. They’re also last in AL scoring, OPS/OPS+, walks, and various aspects of RISP hitting (worst BA and OPS, fewest chances). That they’re not worse than 12-17 attests to their solid pitching (which takes a hit with Peavy ailing) and to a lack of “wasteful” scoring. They’ve scored no more than 7 runs in a game (every other AL team has at least 3 games with 8+), and the average margin of their 12 wins is just over 2 R/G. They have not exceeded their Pythagorean estimate, but somehow it feels like they have.

Rays 8, @Rockies 3: 3 HRs off Alex Cobb, but the Rox went 0-9 with RISP, while the homerless Rays went 5-10. Jhoulys Chacin returned from the DL and got through 7, but took his first loss. Three hits and 3 runs for James Loney, now batting .398 — mostly in a platoon role, but he’s 7 for 11 vs. lefties.

  • Even in Coors Field, hitting 3 HRs (exactly) is usually good for a win — .699 winning percentage all-time. The Rockies themselves are 120-47 (.719).
  • Rookie Nolan Arenado moved up to #2 in the order and went 5-1-2-1, with his 3rd HR (against 3 Ks). The club has been looking for its next third baseman since Garrett Atkins imploded in 2007.
  • What happens when you combine power and a low K rate, in Coors Field? You get the prime years of Larry Walker, Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki. Arenado fanned in just 10% of his minor-league PAs; it’s too soon to define his power potential, but he’s 22 and starting (and hitting) in the majors.
  • Rox are 5 games ahead of last year’s pace, Rays 5 games behind.

Athletics 5, @Yankees 4: Wait, he’s not a LOOGY any more? Boone Logan, who’s faced a LHB in about 60% of PAs the past 2 years, began the tied 8th against a trio of powerful righties, and the second one took him deep.

  • Wait-wait — Bob Melvin walked the potential winning run (Cano), so that Grant Balfour could face Vernon Wells, who had homered off Balfour in 2 of their last 3 meetings? Was it meant as an exorcism? In the first game of the series, Melvin let Balfour get the last out of a very cheap save, perhaps to counter the memory of his past Bronx blowups, and our hidden microphones captured Melvin’s advice.
  • I know this is sacrilege, but … “Preston Claiborne” sounds more like a Chairman of the Board than “Whitey Ford,” don’t you think? Especially if it was Preston Claiborne III. Also … Preston attended Tulane University, and probably gave up a HR or two to a lefty batter in a home game at Turchin Stadium. If one of those balls had rolled to the nearest thoroughfare, it would have wound up on Claiborne Avenue.

Tigers 9, @Astros 0: After wiping out Houston Saturday, Detroit went for the sweep in a potential “trap” game — one of the starkest pitching mis-matchups of the year, Justin Verlander against Philip Humber. The Tigers took care of business early, scoring 7 in their first 2 raps, then watched the game’s top ace toy with the Astros. The tall righty out of Goochland H.S. took a no-no into the 7th, lost it on a Carlos Corporan single, and left after 7 (2 hits, 9 Ks) with a 1.55 ERA.

  • Humber’s probably not the worst pitcher in the game, but at 0-7, 8.82 ERA, he’s put his name in the hat. His last 4 starts add up to 15 IP, 27 ER, 35 hits, 9 walks and 8 Ks. He’s fanned less than 10% of all batters this year; he beat 18% last year, even with a 6.44 ERA.
  • Seems nobody’s talking about Verlander, who went past 1,500 career strikeouts today. Is it a case of, “OK, we’ve seen your regular-season dazzle; but call us when you win a championship”?
  • Andy Dirks, hitting .200, batted 2nd in place of Torii Hunter and went 4-3-4-2 with a HR. Hunter ‘s hitting .361 from the 2-hole, but Dirks is 8 for 14 there, with both his HRs (and 10-60 elsewhere). So, it’s great hitting in front of Miggy, right? Meh. The #2 men hit .257/.710 last year, and in 2011 (when Miggy hit 4th), the #3 men hit .276/.748. You’re always alone in the batter’s box.
  • No style points on either end of this (except maybe chunk-style), but it’s still a good play by both.

Orioles 8, @Angels 4: Baltimore closed their longest western trip at 7-4. Jason Hammel is 3-0 the last 2 years when allowing exactly 4 runs in 6 IP; all other AL starters with those numbers are 25-58 (.301).

  • Of all the things Halo fans never thought they’d see this year, a weekend where Hank Conger started at DH might say the most.
  • The Angels’ worst season was 1980, both in losses (95) and W% (.406). They’re at .355 now, a 104-loss pace. (Really 105, but I rounded down, out of pity.)
  • The combined .393 W% by the LA-area teams would be the worst ever. There were 5 prior years when both had losing records: 1968, ’87, ’92, ’99 and 2010 (both 80-82). The prior worst combined W% was .417 in 1992.

Reds 7, @Cubs 4: Cincinnati has won 11 of 13 in Wrigley since the start of last year, 8 of those without hitting a HR. Dusty goes for win #1,600 Monday night against Atlanta, the team where his pro baseball career began almost 46 years ago; that would break a tie with Tommy Lasorda, who managed almost half the games Dusty played in.

  • They faced stiff competition, but 11-20 is the Cubs’ worst start since 1997.
  • Once a year, I have to get this rant off my chest: When all is said and done, I think the Cubs will regret not returning Starlin Castro to the minors at the first sign of immaturity, instead of handing him a long-term contract. Yes, he’s good enough to play in the majors. Yes, he might well earn that money, by market rates. And no, I have no recent incidents to cite. But has he progressed as a hitter at all since the day he arrived 3 years ago, 6 weeks past his 20th birthday and after just 57 games at AA? And what incentive does he have now? Who knows what might have been, but I think whatever star potential he had went poof when the star-hype came too soon and the kid-glove treatment followed.

__________

Stuff

The 83 Game Score by Jose Fernandez was the best for age 20 or under since King Felix decreed an 86 in 2007. The last to reach that score at or under Fernandez’s exact age (20 years, 277 days) was Ed Correa in 1986, a 3-hit shutout in Yankee Stadium (85 GmSc). Dwight Gooden owns 12 of the last 17 games that meet the Fernandez criteria, including one at the exact same age (that was his 9th career shutout).

This clip of the last out looks like a new reality show: Starter watches from inside a cage as a reliever tries to preserve his win. Utley just missed tying the game on that swing.

_________

Had the Dodgers hung on Saturday, it would have been the first team win in AT&T Park when their SP allowed 5+ runs in less than 2 innings. Those teams are now 0-17.

Walk-off HRs by the same team on consecutive *dates* last occurred … when? Not this year or in 2011-12. (I’m too lazy to check for consecutive games on non-consecutive dates.)

The last walk-off HR on an 0-2 count was exactly one year before that of Guillermo Quiroz. It was a 2-run shot by Jhonny Peralta off Matt Thornton that turned defeat into victory.

Brandon League has allowed 5 career walk-offs taters, to players born in Venezuela, Cuba, South Korea, North Dakota and Arkansas.

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Steve Helsing
11 years ago

One clarification. You talked about the Kinsler sacrifice. He was credited with one, but most of the broadcasters who know these things better thought Kinsler was really trying to catch the Red Sox by surprise to get a bunt single than trying to sacrifice.

ATarwerdi96
ATarwerdi96
11 years ago

I know it’s early, but Darvish is currently on pace to break the single-season K/9 mark. Right now he’s at 14.2; the record is Randy Johnson’s 13.4 in 2001. He’s also on pace to become the first pitcher with 300 in a season since Johnson and Curt Schilling in 2002 (334 and 316, respectively).

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

I have not checked 2012 yet but in 2011 Albert Pujols hit walk-off HRs in 2 consecutive games on June 4 and 5. So that’s 2 consecutive games with walk-=off HRs for the Cards.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but Baltimore has now won their last 107 games when leading after 7 innings. It’s the second longest streak since the expansion era (’61). Only the Yankees (98-99) have a longer streak. Unfortunately the article I read didn’t mention how long the Yankees streak was.

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Last season teams leading after 7 won 91.9% of the time. If I’ve done the numbers correctly, the chances of a 91.9% shot occurring 107 times in a row is about one in 8,500 or so.

bstar
11 years ago

You’re right about Justin Verlander flying under the radar. I don’t think it’s lack of winning a World Series, though. I think we’re just used to him being great and maybe we’re taking that greatness for granted a little right now.

Verlander already has 2.2 WAR at this point. Were he to lead the AL in pitching WAR again this year, that would be three straight years of leading his league. Only 5 pitchers have done that in the last 50 years:

Johan Santana 2004-2006
Randy Johnson 1999-2002 (4 seasons)
Roger Clemens 1990-1992
Dave Stieb 1982-1984
Bob Gibson 1968-1970

Doug
Doug
11 years ago

With a loss in his next start, Philip Humber will tie Mike Boddicker of the 1988 Orioles with the longest streak of losing starts to begin a post-expansion season. In Boddicker’s defense the 0’s infamously started that season at 0-23 and were 5-30 over the period of his 8 lost starts.

Boddicker’s streak is also the second longest in the searchable era to start a season by an OD starter, behind only Ref Ruffing of the 1929 Red Sox, with losses in his first 11 starts, the most to start a season by any pitcher in the searchable era.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago

Giants games have been a bit bonkers of late. The margin of victory/loss in 11 of the last 12 matchups (all against NL West foes) has been 1 or 2 runs, with one game where 3 runs formed the difference. In those games, 4 went to extra innings, 4 were walk offs (two in 9th, two in extras) and a remarkable 9 were settled in the 8th inning or later. JA’s earlier remark about the disintegration of the majority of SF’s rotation was illustrated by a Giants SP not getting a win in these last dozen games until Cain last… Read more »

bstar
11 years ago

I personally admit I wasn’t using The Force when I read through the Game Notes, and there’s just no excuse for that.

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  bstar

This was meant as a reply to #9, sorry.

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Yoda and Obi-wan were overheard muttering this when Ozzie Smith retired: Obi-Wan: That boy is the last of his kind. Yoda: No…there is another. It appears Yodes may have been referring to Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons. In what could be considered a coming-out party, Simmons blasted 2 HRs tonight (his first multi-HR game) and also knocked in a career-high 4 runs. He also made a death-defying snag of an errant throw by Freddie Freeman after the Braves had caught a Reds runner in a pickoff. Simmons lunged for the ball at second and managed to somehow tag the oncoming runner… Read more »

Daniel Longmire
Daniel Longmire
11 years ago

John, I’m not sure that Ruggiano’s game could be termed “modern”, as he is just the eighth player in the live-ball era (and third in the past 23 seasons) to have a two HRs/two HBPs combo.

On another note, Helton’s lifetime BA of .320 seems like a mathematical impossibility, considering that outside of his 5-year peak (2000-04, which coincide exactly with his All-Star selections), he has just one other season out of 12 that is above that mark. He does, however, have three seasons of exactly .320, which is unusual. A little more grist for the mill…

Daniel Longmire
Daniel Longmire
11 years ago

That should read “At first glance” to begin the first sentence about Helton, rather than “On another note”.

brp
brp
11 years ago

Helton also hit .325 in 2009. Still a bit odd, though.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

In Helton’s 17 years he had 3 years of batting .320, 6 years of above .320 and 8 years of below .320. However he had 3394 AB in the 6-year period versus 2575 AB in the 8-year period, so the 6-year period carries more weight. A .320 lifetime BA looks consistent with those figures.

Daniel Longmire
Daniel Longmire
11 years ago

Fair enough, Richard. Obviously the numbers have to add up somehow. And brp, 2009 was the “one other season” that I mentioned.

deal
11 years ago

Snapshots from the Marlins-Phillies Debacle. http://phungo.blogspot.com/2013/05/snapshots-2013-05-05-marlins-phillies.html #2 catcher Erik Kratz trekked out to the bullpen middle of the game. not sure if that is standard ops for the Phils or if he was going out there just in case the Phils had to warm up a sacrificial arm. Also last week I put together a short piece comparing the demise of Roy Hallday with Steve Carlton’s 1986 season (his final w/ the Phils) http://phungo.blogspot.com/2013/05/does-2013-roy-halladay-1986-steve.html note: Carlton’s 7th start of the ’86 season was better than Halladay’s on Sunday but not much – Carlton gave up 6 runs over 5 (3… Read more »

brp
brp
11 years ago

You’re 100% right on Castro. He’s probably worse than when he came up and there’s no incentive or competition. Sveum making an empty threat about sending players to the minors was a good start but everyone knew it wouldn’t happen. Castro should be benched for a while the next time he starts making mental errors – not just slumping – and then maybe the Cubs can start to impress on him that he can’t just coast by as the next Shawon Dunston. Because as much as I like Castro, he’s pretty much a slightly better Dunston and he should be… Read more »

Brent
Brent
11 years ago

What do you think about the ChiSox strategy in the bottom of the 10th? Runner on 2nd, two out and they intentionally walk Chris Getz? Really??!!! Of course, they proceed to load the bases with a 5 pitch walk to Kottaras and then Gordon wins the game with the hit over Rios. ( BTW, The Royals announcers seemed to think Rios might have pulled something about halfway to the ball and that is why he didn’t quite get there.) Anyway, besides the obvious reasons not to walk Chris Getz, there is another really good one. If you pitch to Getz… Read more »

Timmy Pea
Timmy Pea
11 years ago

Mark Reynolds gets beaned in the head and then hits a 463′ home run.