Evaluating How Catchers Control the Opposition’s Running Game – 2013 Edition

One of the toughest things to quantify in all of sports is a catcher’s value on defense. Their are so many responsibilities and subtle nuances that go into being a quality Major League backstop. The best of the best are able to deftly juggle the responsibilities of managing a pitching staff, framing borderline pitches, blocking pitches, holding base runners, throwing said runners out when they attempt to steal, and much, much more. Recently I’ve been doing some research into catching defense and I have been somewhat unsatisfied by both the traditional statistics (caught stealing %, passed balls, and so on) and by the advanced metrics (URZ and defensive runs saved). A few excellent studies in particular have been done to analyze a catcher’s ability to frame pitches, but otherwise most analysis is left to judgment. I’ve been compiling some of my own numbers relating to catchers controlling the base running game in order to gain a better understanding of who the best backstops in baseball really are, and I’d like to share some of my findings today.

The spreadsheet below contains catchers or catcher groupings from all 30 Major League teams. Twenty-five Major League teams have primarily used one catcher for at least 50% of their innings behind the plate while the five remaining clubs have worked out of a platoon scenario for one reason or another. For that reason I’ve examined those five clubs as a unit to examine whether or not those platoons are actually working on the defensive side of things.

I’m looking specifically at a catcher’s ability to limit an opposing team’s running game, so we have some of the traditional stats (caught stealing %, stolen bases allowed) mixed in with some numbers I’ve been working on.

The first of which is innings caught per stolen base allowed. This statistic is simple. All it does is let us know how frequently a catcher is giving up stolen bases. Elite catchers allow 1 steal for every 25 or more innings caught, while the worst allow about one stolen base per every 10-11 innings. For further reference the league average for the 2013 season is one steal per every 16.2 innings.

The 2nd statistic I created is stolen bases allowed per 1200 innings, which is about the equivalent of 140 games behind the plate. This number is based on a catcher’s current innings caught per stolen base allowed, and is rounded to the nearest whole number. It creates a nice even number which allows us to get a true idea of the difference between the elite catchers in baseball and the below average ones. The best catchers will sit somewhere in the 30-40 range. The worst are going to be the ones who top 100. Everyone else is coalescing towards the middle, which for the 2013 season is about 74 stolen bases allowed per 1200 innings of work as a backstop.

Finally, this is still a relatively small sample size so remember to keep that in mind as well. Now that that’s out of the way, let’s take a look at the numbers:

Screen shot 2013-05-30 at 8.59.07 AM

– Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters, and Miguel Montero are far and away the cream of the catching crop. This isn’t a new development either. All three annually grade out among the best defenders at their position.

– We really need to talk about your catching situation Joe Maddon. Rays catchers have allowed more stolen bases than any other team this season while doubling down on a complete lack of offense. Combined, the Jose Molina-Jose Lobaton pair ranks 20th in baseball in team OPS at the catching position while producing just 3 homers and 17 RBI in 52 games! In fact, opposing runners should probably be given the green light even more frequently than they already are thanks to Tampa’s paltry 16% caught stealing rate.

– Russell Martin has been an absolute godsend for the catching-starved Pirates. A year ago Pittsburgh gave a majority of their playing time behind the plate to Rod Barajas. If not for actual video evidence, I would have assumed Barajas was just rolling the ball down to 2nd base a year ago thanks to an arm that best resembles a wet noodle. He gave up a whopping 1 steal per every 8.88 innings caught, which is about half as good as Martin has been this season. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, they are still giving Mike McKenry playing time at catcher. The only thing easier than stealing a base from McKenry would be taking actual candy from a picture of a baby. He’s giving up 1 steal per every 6.01 innings which is far and away the worst rate in baseball.

– Buster Posey, contrary to popular belief, is just not a good defensive catcher. He’s slow getting out of his crouch and his arm strength is only so-so, which makes him an easy target for speedsters. He’s allowed 1 stolen base per every 13.8 innings caught, which is right in line with his career average. Posey’s an absolutely wonderful, game-changing force with the bat. His receiving and throwing skills just haven’t gotten there yet.

– Who’s the most improved backstop from a year ago, you ask? Why that would be none other than Joe Mauer. The Twins offensive powerhouse gave up 1 steal per every 11.2 innings caught a year ago, but that’s jumped up to 1 per every 42.6 innings caught in the early going. That’s got to make Twins fans breath a little easier going forward.

– Kurt Suzuki is absolutely killing the Nationals right now. When you’re a no-bat/defense first player, you need to perform well on defense. Suzuki hasn’t done that so far, getting his pocket picked 30 times in 33 chances this season. Hurry back soon Wilson Ramos.

-Teams should be stealing more often off of these players: Chris Iannetta, Nick Hundley, Wellington Castillo, Jarod Saltalamacchia, and Tyler Flowers.

-Teams should probably avoid running on these guys: Wilin Rosario, John Buck, the Yankees platoon, and Rob Brantly.

Big thanks to Baseball-Reference for some of the statistical help. 

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David Horwich
David Horwich
11 years ago

Putting all the credit/blame for controlling the running game on catchers overlooks a significant aspect of the issue, namely the ability (or lack thereof) of a pitching staff to hold runners on and deliver the ball quickly to the plate. Perhaps Joe Mauer has made some adjustment that has improved his release time and throwing mechanics – or is it that this year’s Twins pitching staff is collectively better at holding runners on and/or faster to the plate? To take a specific example that leaps to mind, look at the stolen base numbers against Tim Lincecum, who has a slow,… Read more »

David Horwich
David Horwich
11 years ago
Reply to  David Hruska

Hmm. I think it’s more the job of the pitcher to keep the runner where he is, and the catcher’s to try to throw him out if the runner takes off. For example, the number of SB against Andy Pettitte has always been low, and most seasons would-be thieves have had a poor success rate against him. As far as I know no one has ever suggested Jorge Posada was a stellar defensive catcher, and the credit has rightfully been given to Pettitte’s outstanding pickoff move. On the other hand, Nolan Ryan gave up a lot of steals…and so on.… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  David Horwich

“how important is controlling the running game, anyway?” Good question, David Horwich. And here’s a small piece of the puzzle: In 2013 games through Thursday, when one team had more steals than their opponent, they won at a .637 clip. Sounds good in the abstract, but it’s one of the lowest figures for “winning the battle” in any of the offensive counting stats. Context is huge, of course, and we all can remember games where steals or CS were crucial. But for an anecdotal case, note that Jacoby Ellsbury’s 5 SB the other night produced no runs, and as a… Read more »

mosc
mosc
11 years ago

We need a stealing leverage statistic. You’d have to look at the probability of stealing in any given RE24 situation, and give each player some kind of seasonal steal probability number. Then, you can calculate the expected number of steal attempts a catcher SHOULD see and use that against what they DID see.

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  mosc

mosc, great idea for a stealing leverage stat.

brp
brp
11 years ago

The variance in attempts is interesting to me. It’s too hard to nail that down; do teams run less because of a catcher’s reputation, or the pitcher on the mound, or simply their personnel/game situations? E.g. when Montero has only thrown out 14% and Rob Brantly has thrown out 45%, then why have teams attempted to steal 8 more times on Brantly in roughly 120 fewer innings? It’s not like teams are trying desperately to scratch out runs against the vaunted Marlins rotation or anything. Or why are they running so much against Martin and so little against Pierzynski, etc.… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago
Reply to  brp

brp:

I second the notion. Some high octane thieves like Brock and Henderson stole for fun, but the running game is dependent to a great extent on situation and the personnel of both teams.

Just a passing thought: It might be easier to isolate what makes a bad catcher than a good one, and do the weaning in reverse. Problem: same as above, situation and the other players come into it a lot. With a knuckleballer on the mound, any catcher has the potential to look bad.

Timmy Pea
Timmy Pea
11 years ago

I always thought Gary Carter was overrated, esp. on defense. Go to compare at B-Ref, and compare Gary and Joe Carter, it’s quite a shock to see how similar their hitting stats are.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Timmy Pea

Timmy Pea, We’ve been through this before; their raw offensive numbers may look kinda sorta similar if you squint hard, but you still have adjust them for context. Joe Carter had a lifetime AIR of 103 (somewhat above-average offensive context); Joe Carter had a lifetime AIR of 95 ((well below–average offensive context). Gary Carter has +158 Rbat, while Joe Carter has only +5 Rbat. Even if you don’t adjust, Gary has a 26 point advantage in OBA, which is huge. Without throwing more numbers around, Joe Carter was about average offensively over the course of his career,sometimes decent, once/twice even… Read more »

David Horwich
David Horwich
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Yes, we have been down this road before, and I suspect Timmy Pea is just looking to rile folks up a bit.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

@8/Lawrence (me) OOPS! I meant to say ” …GARY Carter had a lifetime AIR of 95 (well below–average offensive context).” FWIW, JOE Carter had a great year in 1986, and may have been a serious MVP candidate (he finished 9th) if the Indians had actually contended (they were 84-78, 11.5 GB), as he was widely seen as a leader in their resurgence. Gary Carter, however, had at least 6-7 seasons as good or better than Joe Carter’s best. To pile on further, Jay Jaffe’s JAWS HOF-worthiness evaluator on B-R has: Gary Carter – 2nd greatest catcher Joe Carter – 104th… Read more »

BryanM
BryanM
11 years ago
Reply to  Timmy Pea

Tim , as a Jays and Cards fan , I repent my poking a little fun at the cubs the other day. The Jays last won 20 years ago, and they sure are not as good as the Cubs this year…. Sadly , in 20 years, they have never been able to replace the greatness of Joe Carter.

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago

David, I enjoyed this piece! It’s great to look at all aspects of how catchers fare against the running game, not just CS percentages. For instance, Miguel Montero had an outstanding CS% the past 2 years, but a lousy figure this year (2 of 15). But the bigger picture is, most folks just don’t run on him any more; about 80 attempts per year in 2011-12, but on pace for less than 50 this year.