Monday game notes & random stuff

@Reds 5, Cubs 4: Two 13th-inning walk-offs in 3 days? Three walk-offs in a week’s time, and 4 on the year already?

Attention, critics! Dusty Baker just did us a big favor. This game proves he means never to use Aroldis Chapman for more than one inning. Now we can shelve the topic until the stretch run, at least.

 

  • In the top of the 8th, Jonathan Broxton left injured with 2 outs and man on base. The pitcher’s spot wasn’t due up for a long while, leaving no obstacle to an early arrival of Chapman. But Dusty instead went with his “ROOGY,” Logan Ondrusek, who got the out, then gave way to Chapman for the 9th.
  • Chapman carved up the Cubs on 3 swinging Ks and 13 pitches. His spot wouldn’t come up in the home 9th, he hasn’t been overworked, and the Cubs had the top of the order coming up — but Chapman came out anyway.
  • The Reds have now played 3 home games that went 13 innings and were tied after 8. In each game, Chapman pitched the top of the 9th, and his spot in the batting order did not come up in the home 9th. He threw 20 pitches (4 batters), 10 pitches (3 batters) and 13 pitches (3 batters), but never came back for the 10th inning.

So that’s it, right? If Chapman’s not coming into that 8th inning, nor staying past the 9th under those circumstances, then it’s just not gonna happen, at least not until Dusty feels a “must-win” game. And even then, who knows.

  • So the delicate genius was excused after 13 pitches because, you know, whatever — he might have to protect a 3-run lead tomorrow. But when Sam LeCure had to throw an extra 10 pitches in the 10th, thanks to back-to-back errors behind him, he went right back for the 11th. After a 2-out single on pitch #35, he walked Julio Borbon with pitch #42 — and if that’s not a red flag, I’m even more color-blind than I thought. But although LeCure’s spot was not due to bat in the coming inning, Dusty didn’t move until LeCure gave another walk (47th pitch), loading the bases for Starlin Castro.
  • First 3-strikeout game for Joey Votto since last June, and all with someone aboard, leading to the 3rd-worst WPA of his career (-0.285).
  • Shin-Soo Choo was in a HBP slump, but has 3 in his last 2 games to get back on the record pace. OK, I lied — he’s been on a record pace since Opening Day. He has 10 in 20 team games, as many as the next 3 guys combined, and 3 more than anyone at this point in a season, since at least 1916.

Rangers 7, @Angels 6: Ernesto Frieri has given Texas just 8 hits in 45 ABs, but 5 of those are HRs — the latest a tie-breaking first-pitch crank by A.J. Pierzynski. Josh Hamilton batted 5th instead of 4th for the first time this season and notched his first 4-hit game in almost a year, while Mark Trumbo stepped up to cleanup against the lefty. But wouldn’t you know it? — when the Halos hit in the 9th, needing a run off Joe Nathan, it came down to Trumbo with 2 outs and a man on first, and he whiffed on 3 pitches. Hamilton is 3 for 6 with a HR against Nathan.

  • Didn’t matter in the end, but … Why was Peter Bourjos glued to 1st after his leadoff hit in the 9th? True, the next three were all power hitters; still seems like Scioscia steal situation, especially against the Nathan/Pierzynski combo. But Bourjos, who swiped 22 in 2011, has no SB attempts this year, and the Angels are down from #2 in SB last year to #12 so far in 2013.
  • Frieri threw 7 pitches, got 3 outs, and lost. That hasn’t happened since 2004.
  • Pierzynski has 4 HRs and even a triple, but no doubles.
  • This game-tying chopper was scored an error on Scott Downs. Yes, he has a shot at the runner if he fields it cleanly, whirls 180 degrees and fires a quick strike to 1st — but the standard for an error is ordinary effort.
  • If Joe Blanton‘s stats belonged to a hitter, he’d be leading the league in BA and doubles, 3rd in SLG and OPS.
  • Missed this last week: Nathan scored the cheapest save by a closer since 2011, as measured by RE24. Came in with 2 outs, 2 on and a 4-run lead. Gave up a single, a double and a HBP (all on 1-2) before he finally got the one out needed.

Brewers 7, @Padres 1: The Brewers are world-beaters right now, while the Friars club only themselves. Jason Marquis, who has managed to serve up 10 HRs in 9 starts in Petco since joining the club, teed one up for Ryan Braun in the 1st, and later in the inning had a 3-pitch sequence of HBP-HBP-goner. In the home half, down 5-0, Everth Cabrera made a pointless advance to 3rd on a deep fly, but used the wrong kind of pop-up slide and was tagged out for a DP. They wouldn’t get another man past first base until the 5th, after Milwaukee had tacked on 2 more with 3 walks and a wild pitch. Cabrera whiffed in his other 3 trips.

  • If Jean Segura keeps playing steady SS (1 error, 15 DPs) and getting on base in front of Braun (.406 OBP), he’ll soon be known for more than that one crazy play or being dealt for Zack Greinke.
  • Pads people have lost 4 straight while totaling 3 runs, reaching 5-14 for the year. They welcome the Marlins for a Monday-Wednesday series next month.
  • Say something nice, John … Cabrera is actually off to an excellent start, with a .395 OBP and 2 wholly unexpected HRs. As the only current position player from Nicaragua, he’s representing well.

@Rays 5, Yankees 1: Tampa’s 4-run 1st matched its biggest inning this year, built with an 0-2 HR and a trio of 2-out hits on the first strike they saw. Matt Moore is the first Ray ever to win 4 straight starts to begin the year.

  • The Yanks were Tampa’s daddy for the first dozen years, but they haven’t won the season series since 2009. Since 2010, New York is 9-19 in their spring training town.
  • For years, part of Sabathia’s wisdom has been his willingness to throw a mid-plate strike on a 3-0 or 3-1 count, early in the inning with none aboard. But that doesn’t work so well at 89 m.p.h. as it does at 95.
  • Since joining the Yankees, CC is 3-9 in 19 starts against Tampa. His ERA is a respectable 3.82, but when he’s been hurt, it’s usually been HRs — 18 in 132 IP. He has five multi-HR games against the Rays in that span, no more than 2 against any other team.
  • Matt photo finish: Moore and Harvey each won a marquee matchup in his last outing, and have incredibly similar stats thus far:
    4-0, 1.04 ERA, 10 hits in 26 IP, 29 Ks
    4-0, 0.93 ERA, 10 hits in 29 IP, 32 Ks

@Red Sox 9, Athletics 6: How do you do it, Mike Napoli? How do you get more RBI than hits? Is your secret productive outs? No, alas; it’s a matter of opportunities (27 ABs with RISP, #2 in MLB) and making the most of them. He’s 4-for-6 with the bags full, with a HR and 2 doubles, good for 11 ribs. (OK, he also has 2 scoring groundouts.)

  • Will Middlebrooks is 2 for 14 with RISP — 2 HRs, with 7 RBI. He’s hit all 5 HRs off righties.
  • A modest proposal: When a walk allowed is exactly as bad as a home run — such as the leadoff pass from Andrew Bailey to Chris Youngwith a 3-run lead in the 9th — why not score it as such? Yeah, I know, it would screw up the zero-sum accounting … we’d have to keep 2 sets of books.
  • Just had an awful thought: What if Josh Reddick repeats the 2nd-half fades of 2011-12, when his OPS fell roughly 30% after the break?
  • Alex Wilson, is this any way to make fans forget John Lackey, whose roster spot you’re keeping warm? Coming into the 8th with a man aboard and a 3-run lead (down from 6 at inning’s start), and walking the first batter? What will the folks back home in Dhahran think of you?

@Giants 5, D-backs 4: A taste of their own medicine. Sunday, the Snakes rallied for 3 runs over the last 2 innings to beat the Rockies. Monday, in the first meeting of these division foes, the Jints turned the tables, tying on Buster Posey’s 2-run shot, before Brandon Belt-ed his first game-ending hit. Belt entered in a double-switch with 2 outs in the top of the 9th and recorded the last out, so it was inevitable that he would lead off … er, end the game.

David Hernandez had an excellent HR rate the past 2 years (0.5 HR/9), but has already allowed 2 costly ones this season. This was the first he’s ever allowed to a Giant, in 18 games and 69 PAs. Not a bad pitch — hard fastball, outer half — but Posey was ahead in the count, and he was ready.

  • Belt has hit better against lefties so far in his career.
  • These teams split the series each of the last 2 years. Jints haven’t lost a season series to a division foe since 2010 (6-12 vs. SD).
  • Teams are 4-1 when a pitcher homers for them this year, and 326-134 since 1993 — as you’d expect, a much better W% than for HRs by any other position. By the way, Wade Miley has a better contact rate than a lot of MLB stars, and he sure looks hitterish up there.

@Phillies 3, Pirates 2: And you thought I was just going to ignore the Jonathan Pettibone/Jonathan Papelbon connection?!?

  • Do it all, J-Roll. (Not pictured: Taking one for the team, a 2-out, 2-strike, go-ahead HBP in the 4th.)
  • When Pedro hits ’em, they stay hit. When he misses, he misses but good. When he takes ’em, everyone goes home.

__________

Random stuff

Who will hit our first inside-the-park home run? We’ve had one by April 24 in each of the past 8 years.

Your mileage may vary: In 21.2 IP, Jake Westbrook has whiffed just 8 and allowed 14 walks and 18 hits (plus a HBP), but just 4 runs.

Didi Gregorius has 4 HRs in 10 games this year — 2 /7 in AAA, 2/4 in MLB. But enough with the solo shots, Didi; kuiken willen een groot slem. (OK, you Dutch grammarians, let me have it.)

Such a LOOGY fellow! Donnie Veal of the White Sox has appeared in 10 games and faced 20 batters. In MLB history, just one season of 40+ games averaged no more than 2 batters per game: Randy Choate, 2011. Veal has been charged with 1 run in 4.2 IP, and only 1 of his 10 inherited runners scored on his watch. But the details show why we should basically ignore “inherited runners” data for lefty specialists. So far, the bulk of the runners “stranded” by Veal came in games where did not at all get the job done:

  • On Sunday, Veal entered a tie game in the 7th with 2 outs and men at the corners, and promptly walked Joe Mauer on 4 pitches. Then Jesse Crain came in and surrendered a 3-run double on his first pitch to Josh Willingham. Veal thus was charged with 1 ER in 0 IP — but the 2 inherited runners go on his books as not having scored against him.
  • The day before, Veale came into the 8th, tied, with 1 out and man on 2nd. A pinch-hitter was used; Veale walked him on 5 pitches and then departed for Nate Jones, who got out of the inning. Veale’s IR tally shows 1-0, but he didn’t help the situation at all.
  • On April 3, Veal came into the 7th ahead by 2, with 1 out and men on the corners. A righty pinch-hitter was used, and Veal walked him on 4 pitches, pushing the tying run to 2nd base and loading the bags. Then he retired Alex Gordon on a short fly, runners holding, and gave way to Matt Lindstrom, who got the last out of the inning. Another 2 runners “stranded” for Veal.
  • On April 9, Veal entered the 7th down a run, with 1 out and a man on 1st. His wild pickoff throw sent the runner to 3rd, and then he walked Denard Span, the lefty he was brought in for. Exit Veal, enter Lindstrom with men at the corners and 1 out. Lindstrom got out of the inning, but the run scored. WPA recognizes that Veal’s stint was much more damaging than Lindstrom’s, but the inherited runners tally shows 1-0 for Veal, 2-1 for Lindstrom.
  • The next day, Veal again came in to face Span, down by 2 in the 6th, with 2 in scoring position and 1 out. Span singled for a run, and Veal handed off the mess to Nate Jones, who induced a DP to escape further damage. Veal’s performance was utterly worthless, but his IR tally was 2-1.

In 4 of his 10 games, Veal has not retired a batter, but was credited with “stranding” 5 of 6 inherited runners. Another game, he got an out and “stranded” 2, but added a runner and left with the bags full. Only once has he inherited anyone and actually ended the inning.

__________

Pedro Strop desperately needed Sunday’s good outing. Four of his first 7 appearances had been very damaging, scoring -0.2 WPA or worse; he’d been charged with 7 runs in 5.1 IP, and had let in all 3 inherited runners. And that came on the heels of his late collapse last year, with a 7.24 ERA and 2.42 WHIP in his last 19 games. I doubt that Strop can approach last year’s surprising 2.5 WAR. His 1.34 WHIP ranked 15th out of 19 relievers who notched 2+ WAR last year; nos. 1-15 WHIPped 1.20 or better. His success was built on a .194 BA with men on base (.241 with bases empty), but that MOB mark entailed a lot of pitch-arounds to get to his favorable right-on-right matchups. His walk rate is a problem, and always has been. With a man in scoring position and 1st base open last year, he walked 10 of 36 batters (2 intentional); he also walked 3 of 13 with the bases loaded.

__________

Wilton Lopez established himself as a control artist over the past 3 years with Houston, averaging 10 walks in 68 IP (1.4 BB/9). Now with the Rockies, Lopez hasn’t walked any of his 41 batters this year — hasn’t even had a 3-0 count (one 3-1, two full) — nor has he allowed a homer. But boy, those hits: 18 of ’em in 40 ABs, a .450 BA. His BAbip, which in the past 3 years stayed in a tight range from .303 to .313, sits at .514. Don’t blame it on Coors, since most of the damage came on the road. His strike rate is 71%, equal to the highest mark by any regular reliever last year (Kimbrel). But batters have liked what they’ve seen, swinging at 59% of his offerings (league average is 45%). Unless he’s pitching through an injury, the outs will come.

__________

Josh Donaldson leads the majors with 6 GIDPs. But for sheer opportunism, you can’t beat Starlin Castro: 10 chances, 5 DPs. He’s also 4 for 27 with men on, 1 for 15 with RISP. (That’s just a fluke, though; it’s not been among his problems in past.)

__________

Sunday’s bases-empty IBB to Albert Pujols (to face Josh Hamilton) was the first such event since 2011. Here are the past 11 hitters to be be so honored (back through 2009), and the teammate who was dissed:

  1. Jose Bautista (Adam Lind)
  2. Carlos Pena (Geovany Soto)
  3. Wes Helms (Chris Coghlan)
  4. Albert Pujols (pitcher)
  5. Shane Victorino (pitcher)
  6. Adrian Gonzalez (Ryan Ludwick)
  7. Justin Morneau (Nick Punto)
  8. Adrian Gonzalez (pitcher)
  9. Chipper Jones (pitcher)
  10. Josh Whitesell (pitcher)
  11. Albert Pujols (Chris Duncan)

Only the one to Morneau failed — Punto also walked, and Matt Tolbert drove in the go-ahead run.

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Tigers had 2 relievers with 4+ strikeouts in 2 IP or less. The last such games were (a) by the Pirates on July 29, 2011; and (b) the day before that, against the Pirates.

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Remember when a “$6 million man” sounded like a lot of dough? Now, a limited player like Mark Reynolds is a bargain at six mil — particularly on a one-year commitment. Indians are 5-1 when he’s homered, 2-8 when he hasn’t. He’s hit 6 of his 7 taters away from Cleveland.

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I love a lot of what ESPN does. But they do this often, and it’s repellant: Showing a snappy highlight clip, with some breathless voiceover, while ignoring the obvious goaltending. Saw the clip on SportsCenter last night, and here it is on Grantland today (sorry for no audio). The sad thing is that it’s not even a show of rare athletic ability; half the players in the league could do the same thing, if they didn’t mind committing goaltending. But it looks cool ’cause of the camera angle, with the ball smacked off the backboard and coming right at you. Every anchor who talked over that clip knows that it’s goaltending, so tell me — is there an editorial meeting where they all decide not to mention it, or is it just ingrained in the culture?

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Timmy Pea
Timmy Pea
11 years ago
Doug
Editor
11 years ago

More RBI than Hits Only happened once in a qualifying season, by Big Mac, who did it 3 other times with more than 300 PAs, something only Paul Sorrento has also done. Looking at the list of 26 guys to do it in 100-300 PAs, the best batting average is .250, 15 of the 26 hit under .200, including two under .100. Ergo, the secret is to minimize your hits while getting lots of walks (McGwire had at least as many walks as hits in 3 of his 4 times with more RBI than Hits). Frank Fernandez looks to have… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Jason Giambi had some interesting stats in 2006. 113 H, 113 RBI 110 BB and 106 SO (with 579 PA).

Doug
Editor
11 years ago

At least Dusty has been using his closer in a tied game in the 9th (with that many tied games so early, perhaps he hasn’t had much choice). But, can’t say that of most managers, who are still very reluctant to use their closers in anything other than a save situation (or if the closer hasn’t worked in a while, he may come in to protect a 4+ run lead). But, heaven forbid, never in a tie game in the late innings (unless you’re deep into extras and have run out of arms). {insert tongue-in-cheek emoticon here}

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

But Doug….if managers start using their closers in tie games, what happens when they need their closer to pitch the 9th inning of a 3 run game with no one on base??? Oh the horror!!!

Darien
11 years ago

Check-plus for “Friars club” wordplay.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

Here’s a list of 2 consecutive walk-off wins in the 13th inning or later with the date of the first game.

Angels, 9-8-10
Pirates, 6-20-03
Giants, 6-18-96
Astros, 6-3-89
A’s, 6-17-88
A’s, 5-1-87
Cubs, 8-17-32
Red Sox, 8-15-16

The 1987 A’s games were each 13 innings.