Power pitchers: no longer the elite?

The true power pitcher has long been the province of the celebrated elite of the pitching fraternity. In its most elemental form, baseball is a competition between the batter and the pitcher, with every pitch a renewal of that contest. Long celebrated are those few pitchers who can, when most needed, blow the ball past the hitter to secure the key out. But those days may now be past.

In today’s baseball of K marks littering the scorecards of most ballgames, what once was a rare pitching skill is now just a commodity. Most every pitcher is now expected to be able to retire at least a handful or more of batters each game without aid of his defense.

After the jump, more on the demise of power pitching as an elite skill.

Let’s start by considering pitchers who can strikeout every 4th batter faced. Sustained over a season, that rate of strikeout efficiency is a huge aid to a defense. So, who was the first pitcher to reach this season mark? Dazzy Vance? Dizzy Dean? Bob Feller? Hal Newhouser?

In fact, it was none of those celebrated pitchers. Like the breaking of the four minute mile, smashing the 1 in 4 strikeout barrier fell to an unknown, a raw rookie who, when not blowing it by the hitters, had a tough time finding his catcher’s mitt (which makes the feat that much more impressive). Did anyone guess Herb Score? Herb, in fact, exceeded the 25% strikeout rate in both of his first two seasons before his career was tragically derailed by injury early in his third campaign.

Since Score, there have been 118 other such seasons by 50 different pitchers, 71 of them (60%) since 1997. In fact, the 29 pitchers to reach this standard for the first time since 1997 are significantly more than the 21 pitchers to do so prior to that year. Here’s the list of qualifying seasons with strikeouts exceeding 25% of batters faced.

Year ▾ #Matching
2012 4 Yu Darvish / Gio Gonzalez / Clayton Kershaw / Max Scherzer
2011 5 Zack Greinke / Clayton Kershaw / Cliff Lee / Brandon Morrow / Justin Verlander
2010 5 Mat Latos / Jon Lester / Tim Lincecum / Jonathan Sanchez / Jered Weaver
2009 7 Yovani Gallardo / Zack Greinke / Clayton Kershaw / Jon Lester / Tim Lincecum / Javier Vazquez / Justin Verlander
2008 1 Tim Lincecum
2007 5 Erik Bedard / A.J. Burnett / Scott Kazmir / Jake Peavy / Johan Santana
2006 2 Jake Peavy / Johan Santana
2005 3 Jake Peavy / Mark Prior / Johan Santana
2004 6 Randy Johnson / Pedro Martinez / Oliver Perez / Johan Santana / Jason Schmidt / Ben Sheets
2003 6 Pedro Martinez / Mark Prior / Curt Schilling / Jason Schmidt / Javier Vazquez / Kerry Wood
2002 5 Matt Clement / Randy Johnson / Pedro Martinez / Curt Schilling / Jason Schmidt
2001 4 Randy Johnson / Hideo Nomo / Curt Schilling / Kerry Wood
2000 4 Rick Ankiel / Bartolo Colon / Randy Johnson / Pedro Martinez
1999 2 Randy Johnson / Pedro Martinez
1998 6 Roger Clemens / Randy Johnson / Pedro Martinez / Curt Schilling / John Smoltz / Kerry Wood
1997 6 Roger Clemens / David Cone / Randy Johnson / Pedro Martinez / Hideo Nomo / Curt Schilling
1996 2 Hideo Nomo / John Smoltz
1995 2 Randy Johnson / Hideo Nomo
1994 2 Andy Benes / Randy Johnson
1993 1 Randy Johnson
1992 1 Randy Johnson
1991 2 Randy Johnson / Nolan Ryan
1990 2 David Cone / Nolan Ryan
1989 1 Nolan Ryan
1988 2 Roger Clemens / Sid Fernandez
1987 1 Nolan Ryan
1986 2 Nolan Ryan / Mike Scott
1985 2 Sid Fernandez / Dwight Gooden
1984 2 Dwight Gooden / Nolan Ryan
1983 0
1982 1 Mario Soto
1981 0
1980 0
1979 1 J.R. Richard
1978 2 J.R. Richard / Nolan Ryan
1977 1 Nolan Ryan
1976 1 Nolan Ryan
1975 1 Frank Tanana
1974 1 Nolan Ryan
1973 1 Nolan Ryan
1972 1 Nolan Ryan
1971 1 Tom Seaver
1970 0
1969 0
1968 2 Sam McDowell / Luis Tiant
1967 1 Luis Tiant
1966 2 Dave Boswell / Sam McDowell
1965 3 Sandy Koufax / Sam McDowell / Sonny Siebert
1964 1 Sandy Koufax
1963 2 Sandy Koufax / Jim Maloney
1962 1 Sandy Koufax
1961 1 Sandy Koufax
1960 1 Sandy Koufax
1959 0
1958 0
1957 0
1956 1 Herb Score
1955 1 Herb Score
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/5/2013.

So, there have been at least 3 pitchers to do this in all but 3 of the past 16 seasons, whereas 3 pitchers reaching this standard happened in only one prior season, way back in 1965. Looking at just the past 6 seasons, the 25% threshold has been exceeded 27 times, including 18 times by pitchers reaching this mark for the first time. The range in quality, from Jonathan Sanchez to Justin Verlander is also rather stunning.

So, quite a number of pitchers have done this once or twice. But, who are the true elite to reach this standard with regularity.

Rk Yrs From To Age
1 Randy Johnson 12 1991 2004 27-40 Ind. Seasons
2 Nolan Ryan 12 1972 1991 25-44 Ind. Seasons
3 Pedro Martinez 7 1997 2004 25-32 Ind. Seasons
4 Sandy Koufax 6 1960 1965 24-29 Ind. Seasons
5 Curt Schilling 5 1997 2003 30-36 Ind. Seasons
6 Johan Santana 4 2004 2007 25-28 Ind. Seasons
7 Hideo Nomo 4 1995 2001 26-32 Ind. Seasons
8 Clayton Kershaw 3 2009 2012 21-24 Ind. Seasons
9 Tim Lincecum 3 2008 2010 24-26 Ind. Seasons
10 Jake Peavy 3 2005 2007 24-26 Ind. Seasons
11 Jason Schmidt 3 2002 2004 29-31 Ind. Seasons
12 Kerry Wood 3 1998 2003 21-26 Ind. Seasons
13 Roger Clemens 3 1988 1998 25-35 Ind. Seasons
14 Sam McDowell 3 1965 1968 22-25 Ind. Seasons
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/5/2013.

Overall, a much better quality of pitcher, as would be expected. But, some surprises, too. Quick – who guessed that Hideo Nomo had more seasons like this than Rocket Roger or Sudden Sam? Randy Johnson’s 12 seasons in 14 years, all the way into his forties speaks for itself. With better control when his strikeouts started to drop from stratospheric levels, Nolan Ryan would likely have registered more than the 12 years shown here, including, incredibly, his age 42, 43 and 44 seasons.

Let’s raise the bar a notch. Instead of striking out one batter in four, how about one in three. Has anyone done that over a season?

Rk Player SO Year Age Tm G GS CG SHO GF W L W-L% IP BB ERA ERA+ HR BF
1 Randy Johnson 372 2001 37 ARI 35 34 3 2 1 21 6 .778 249.2 71 2.49 188 19 994
2 Randy Johnson 364 1999 35 ARI 35 35 12 2 0 17 9 .654 271.2 70 2.48 184 30 1079
3 Randy Johnson 347 2000 36 ARI 35 35 8 3 0 19 7 .731 248.2 76 2.64 181 23 1001
4 Pedro Martinez 313 1999 27 BOS 31 29 5 1 1 23 4 .852 213.1 37 2.07 243 9 835
5 Randy Johnson 294 1995 31 SEA 30 30 6 3 0 18 2 .900 214.1 65 2.48 193 12 866
6 Randy Johnson 291 1997 33 SEA 30 29 5 2 0 20 4 .833 213.0 77 2.28 197 20 850
7 Pedro Martinez 284 2000 28 BOS 29 29 7 4 0 18 6 .750 217.0 32 1.74 291 17 817
8 Kerry Wood 233 1998 21 CHC 26 26 1 1 0 13 6 .684 166.2 85 3.40 129 14 699
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/5/2013.

Okay, now we have some separation. Just 8 seasons, including 5 by Randy Johnson. But, you notice that the most recent of these seasons is back in 2001, more than a decade ago. Yet, in that time, strikeouts have continued to soar, with almost every season exceeding the last in setting a new high water mark. So, who have been the most elite power pitchers of the past decade?

Since Randy Johnson last struck out one of every three batters, that mark has been exceeded no less than 45 times (min. 50 IP) since 2002 by 34 different relievers, with these 10 turning the trick more than once.

Rk Yrs From To Age
1 Eric Gagne 3 2002 2004 26-28 Ind. Seasons
2 Craig Kimbrel 2 2011 2012 23-24 Ind. Seasons
3 Kenley Jansen 2 2011 2012 23-24 Ind. Seasons
4 Aroldis Chapman 2 2011 2012 23-24 Ind. Seasons
5 Jonathan Papelbon 2 2007 2011 26-30 Ind. Seasons
6 Carlos Marmol 2 2007 2010 24-27 Ind. Seasons
7 Takashi Saito 2 2006 2007 36-37 Ind. Seasons
8 Joe Nathan 2 2005 2006 30-31 Ind. Seasons
9 B.J. Ryan 2 2004 2005 28-29 Ind. Seasons
10 Brad Lidge 2 2004 2005 27-28 Ind. Seasons
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/5/2013.

Thus, it would seem that the new elite level in power pitching requires such exertion, it can’t possibly be sustained for the length of a start. Nor, judging by the 24 relievers to strike out one in three just once, can it be sustained for very long in a career.

So, what is the new threshold for elite power pitching? In fact, it was passed just in 2010 and has been matched in each of the following seasons. It is the rather improbable mark of 15 SO/9 (min. 50 IP), compiled only by these flame-throwers.

Rk Player SO SO/9 IP Year Age Tm G GF W L W-L% SV BB ERA ERA+ HR BF
1 Carlos Marmol 138 15.99 77.2 2010 27 CHC 77 70 2 3 .400 38 52 2.55 167 1 332
2 Aroldis Chapman 122 15.32 71.2 2012 24 CIN 68 52 5 5 .500 38 23 1.51 282 4 276
3 Craig Kimbrel 116 16.66 62.2 2012 24 ATL 63 56 3 1 .750 42 14 1.01 399 3 231
4 Kenley Jansen 96 16.10 53.2 2011 23 LAD 51 13 2 1 .667 5 26 2.85 130 3 218
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/5/2013.

Will be interesting to watch how long this level of performance can be maintained.

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MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago

To state the obvious, the increase in K% is as much driven be the change in approach by hitters as it is the pitchers. In fact, probably more so.

I do wonder as the rate of scoring has dropped to pre-steroid era levels if it will lead to a change in approach by hitters, leading to an eventual decrease in the K%, even if minor.

mosc
mosc
11 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

I do get this feeling as well. We seem to be rapidly converging on the great peak for strikeouts. We’ve also cut IP down to the bone for quality arms to make any impact over the course of a season. Something has got to give.

leatherman
11 years ago

Let’s not overlook the fact that Kimbrel actually reached the “1 K per 2 batters faced” threshold. Kimbrel had 113 Ks out of 227 batters faced going into game 162. He came in the game, gave up a hit to batter 228 (Travis Snider), then struck out batters 229, 230, and 231 to get to 116 of 231, which is simply amazing to me.

Doug
Doug
11 years ago

Leatherman @2,

1 out of 2 – amazing!

So amazing I never thought to check.

Thanks.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago

Nolan Ryan, almost did it at age 45, as well – 157.1 innings

And he came 28 innings short of it at age 21.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago

Jonathan Sanchez: living proof that strikeouts aren’t everything.

brp
brp
11 years ago

What if you compared the difference in K rate from the top K/9 pitchers compared to the league average or even the median? Does that percentage gap show the same dropoff as when looking at the increased number of pitchers hitting an arbitrary K/BF percentage?

E.g., what’s Kimbrel’s K/9 rate percentage above “the norm” compared to what Herb Score did vs. other SP of his time?

I would imagine we’d see a smaller gap, kind of like what you’d expect if you buy into Gould, etc.

Doug
Doug
11 years ago

Good thought, brp.

I have been working with those very data, so I will try to update with that information soon.

As to an “arbitrary” standard, what this metric is showing (despite its simplicity) is not only strikeout frequency but also, implicitly, a low WHIP, something you don’t get with SO/9.

brp
brp
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

True enough; I didn’t consider that aspect of it.

I just meant arbitrary in that there’s not much difference between 1/4 K/BF ratio than 1/4.1 except that one is a round number; e.g. a .299 hitter and a .301 hitter aren’t that different.