Ryan and Joey – just how good are they?

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Joey Votto and Ryan Braun were born two months apart and both started their careers in 2007. Since then they’ve been nothing short of spectacular, so much so that both are now in the top 30 since 1901 in career efficiency (min. 3000 PA) producing WAR batting runs.

Thought they were good, but maybe not that good? You’re probably not alone. After the jump, I’ll look at bit closer at this pair and their lock-step career journeys.

For starters, here are their careers in a box. First, Votto.

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	WAR	oWAR	Awards
2007	23	CIN	24	89	84	11	27	7	0	4	17	5	15	.321	.360	.548	.907	127	0.0	0.3
2008	24	CIN	151	589	526	69	156	32	3	24	84	59	102	.297	.368	.506	.874	125	3.1	2.5	RoY-2
2009	25	CIN	131	544	469	82	151	38	1	25	84	70	106	.322	.414	.567	.981	156	4.6	4.8	MVP-22
2010	26	CIN	150	648	547	106	177	36	2	37	113	91	125	.324	*.424*	.600	1.024	171	6.7	6.4	AS,MVP-1
2011	27	CIN	161	719	599	101	185	40	3	29	103	110	129	.309	.416	.531	.947	155	6.2	5.7	AS,MVP-6,GG
2012	28	CIN	111	475	374	59	126	44	0	14	56	94	85	.337	*.474*	.567	1.041	174	5.6	4.5	AS,MVP-14
6 Yrs			728	3064	2599	428	822	197	9	133	457	429	562	.316	.415	.553	.968	155	26.2	24.2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/24/2013.

Now, Braun.

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	WAR	oWAR	Awards
2007	23	MIL	113	492	451	91	146	26	6	34	97	29	112	.324	.370	.634	1.004	154	1.8	5.0	MVP-24,RoY-1
2008	24	MIL	151	663	611	92	174	39	7	37	106	42	129	.285	.335	.553	.888	130	4.3	3.7	AS,MVP-3,SS
2009	25	MIL	158	708	635	113	203	39	6	32	114	57	121	.320	.386	.551	.937	146	5.9	6.3	AS,MVP-11,SS
2010	26	MIL	157	685	619	101	188	45	1	25	103	56	105	.304	.365	.501	.866	131	5.5	4.5	AS,MVP-15,SS
2011	27	MIL	150	629	563	109	187	38	6	33	111	58	93	.332	.397	.597	.994	166	7.7	7.3	AS,MVP-1,SS
2012	28	MIL	154	677	598	108	191	36	3	41	112	63	128	.319	.391	.595	.987	159	6.8	6.0	AS,MVP-2,SS
6 Yrs			883	3854	3477	614	1089	223	29	202	643	305	688	.313	.374	.568	.943	147	32.0	32.8

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/24/2013.

Pretty dazzling stuff. Votto has four of his first 6 seasons with 30 doubles and an OPS+ of 150 or better, only the 7th player since 1901 to do so.

Rk		Yrs	From	To	Age
1	Albert Pujols	6	2001	2006	21-26	Ind. Seasons
2	Ted Williams	6	1939	1947	20-28	Ind. Seasons
3	Johnny Mize	6	1936	1941	23-28	Ind. Seasons
4	Chuck Klein	5	1929	1933	24-28	Ind. Seasons
5	Joey Votto	4	2009	2012	25-28	Ind. Seasons
6	Frank Thomas	4	1991	1994	23-26	Ind. Seasons
7	Stan Musial	4	1942	1946	21-25	Ind. Seasons

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/24/2013.

For Braun, it’s 5 out of 6 seasons with 30+ homers and 95+ RBI, only the 6th player ever to do that.

Rk		Yrs	From	To	Age
1	Albert Pujols	6	2001	2006	21-26	Ind. Seasons
2	Ryan Braun	5	2007	2012	23-28	Ind. Seasons
3	Mark Teixeira	5	2004	2008	24-28	Ind. Seasons
4	Ralph Kiner	5	1947	1951	24-28	Ind. Seasons
5	Ted Williams	5	1939	1947	20-28	Ind. Seasons
6	Joe DiMaggio	5	1937	1941	22-26	Ind. Seasons

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/24/2013.

Votto’s 197 doubles are tied for second most in the first 6 years of a career (max. 3200 PAs). Braun’s 223 doubles are tied for 10th (max. 4000 PAs). Braun’s 202 HR are tied for 6th most in the first 6 seasons, and his RBI are 14th.

As I said off the top, both are now in the top 30 since 1901 in WAR batting runs per PA efficiency for a career (min. 3000 PA). Here are those players.

Rk	Player	Rbat	PA per Rbat	OPS+	PA	From	To	Age	G	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Babe Ruth	1338	7.9	206	10620	1914	1935	19-40	2503	2174	2873	506	714	2213	2062	.342	.474	.690	1.164
2	Barry Bonds	1128	11.2	182	12606	1986	2007	21-42	2986	2227	2935	601	762	1996	2558	.298	.444	.607	1.051
3	Ted Williams	1070	9.1	190	9788	1939	1960	20-41	2292	1798	2654	525	521	1839	2021	.344	.482	.634	1.116
4	Ty Cobb	994	13.2	168	13078	1905	1928	18-41	3034	2246	4189	724	117	1938	1249	.366	.433	.512	.945
5	Lou Gehrig	969	10.0	179	9663	1923	1939	20-36	2164	1888	2721	534	493	1995	1508	.340	.447	.632	1.080
6	Stan Musial	885	14.4	159	12717	1941	1963	20-42	3026	1949	3630	725	475	1951	1599	.331	.417	.559	.976
7	Hank Aaron	876	15.9	155	13941	1954	1976	20-42	3298	2174	3771	624	755	2297	1402	.305	.374	.555	.928
8	Rogers Hornsby	859	11.0	175	9481	1915	1937	19-41	2259	1579	2930	541	301	1584	1038	.358	.434	.577	1.010
9	Tris Speaker	819	14.6	157	11991	1907	1928	19-40	2790	1882	3514	792	117	1529	1381	.345	.428	.500	.928
10	Willie Mays	808	15.5	156	12496	1951	1973	20-42	2992	2062	3283	523	660	1903	1464	.302	.384	.557	.941
11	Mickey Mantle	800	12.4	172	9907	1951	1968	19-36	2401	1676	2415	344	536	1509	1733	.298	.421	.557	.977
12	Mel Ott	776	14.6	155	11348	1926	1947	17-38	2730	1859	2876	488	511	1860	1708	.304	.414	.533	.947
13	Jimmie Foxx	760	12.7	163	9676	1925	1945	17-37	2317	1751	2646	458	534	1922	1452	.325	.428	.609	1.038
14	Frank Robinson	727	16.2	154	11742	1956	1976	20-40	2808	1829	2943	528	586	1812	1420	.294	.389	.537	.926
15	Frank Thomas	692	14.6	156	10075	1990	2008	22-40	2322	1494	2468	495	521	1704	1667	.301	.419	.555	.974
16	Manny Ramirez	653	15.0	154	9774	1993	2011	21-39	2302	1544	2574	547	555	1831	1329	.312	.411	.585	.996
17	Albert Pujols	652	12.4	168	8103	2001	2012	21-32	1859	1376	2246	505	475	1434	1027	.325	.414	.608	1.022
18	Jeff Bagwell	590	16.0	149	9431	1991	2005	23-37	2150	1517	2314	488	449	1529	1401	.297	.408	.540	.948
19	Harry Heilmann	548	16.4	148	8960	1914	1932	19-37	2147	1291	2660	542	183	1539	856	.342	.410	.520	.930
20	Mark McGwire	547	14.0	163	7660	1986	2001	22-37	1874	1167	1626	252	583	1414	1317	.263	.394	.588	.982
21	Edgar Martinez	532	16.3	147	8674	1987	2004	24-41	2055	1219	2247	514	309	1261	1283	.312	.418	.515	.933
22	Joe DiMaggio	530	14.5	155	7673	1936	1951	21-36	1736	1390	2214	389	361	1537	790	.325	.398	.579	.977
23	Johnny Mize	505	14.6	158	7370	1936	1953	23-40	1883	1118	2011	367	359	1337	856	.312	.397	.562	.959
24	Shoeless Joe Jackson	437	13.0	169	5692	1908	1920	20-32	1332	873	1772	307	54	785	519	.356	.423	.517	.940
25	Hank Greenberg	434	14.0	158	6097	1930	1947	19-36	1394	1051	1628	379	331	1276	852	.313	.412	.605	1.017
26	Miguel Cabrera	396	16.3	151	6474	2003	2012	20-29	1512	961	1802	386	321	1123	709	.318	.395	.561	.956
27	Charlie Keller	287	16.0	152	4604	1939	1952	22-35	1170	725	1085	166	189	760	784	.286	.410	.518	.928
28	Ryan Braun	234	16.5	147	3854	2007	2012	23-28	883	614	1089	223	202	643	305	.313	.374	.568	.943
29	Lefty O’Doul	220	16.6	143	3658	1919	1934	22-37	970	624	1140	175	113	542	333	.349	.413	.532	.945
30	Joey Votto	207	14.8	155	3064	2007	2012	23-28	728	428	822	197	133	457	429	.316	.415	.553	.968

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/27/2013.

The above list is sorted by Rbat. The PA per Rbat had to be manually calculated after running the P-I query so the query result could not be sorted on this field. This list was generated by selecting players with an Rbat score exceeding 6% of their PAs.

Braun and Votto still have a long way to go in their careers (incl. their decline phase) so they may not be on this list when they’re done. But, FWIW, Votto’s PA per Rbat currently ranks 19th and Braun is 29th. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, the only other active players on the list, stand 7th and 27th, respectively. Manny is 20th. Ruth, Williams and Gehrig are 1, 2 and 3, the only players producing a WAR batting run or more for every 10 PAs

If you’re wondering if two players have started their careers in such similar fashion at exactly the same time, the answer is yes. But, it’s been a while. Here are players since 1901 with 200 or more Rbat and an OPS+ from 145 to 160, during the first 6 seasons of their careers.

Rk	Player	Year	Rbat	OPS+	PA	From	To	Age	G	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Ryan Braun	2012	234	147	3854	2007	2012	23-28	883	614	1089	223	29	202	643	305	.313	.374	.568	.943
2	Joey Votto	2012	207	155	3064	2007	2012	23-28	728	428	822	197	9	133	457	429	.316	.415	.553	.968
3	Jeff Bagwell	1996	251	158	3693	1991	1996	23-28	846	545	950	206	18	144	589	500	.307	.406	.525	.931
4	Wade Boggs	1987	247	149	3910	1982	1987	24-29	872	582	1178	218	23	56	411	522	.354	.439	.484	.923
5	Frank Robinson	1961	220	146	3790	1956	1961	20-25	888	618	994	177	34	202	573	392	.302	.384	.561	.946
6	Hank Aaron	1959	243	151	3866	1954	1959	20-25	886	612	1137	205	46	179	617	281	.323	.372	.559	.931
7	Eddie Mathews	1957	239	154	3807	1952	1957	20-25	880	606	902	147	33	222	586	561	.281	.388	.556	.943
8	Willie Mays	1957	220	157	3298	1951	1957	20-26	762	531	903	128	63	187	509	362	.311	.387	.593	.980
9	Charlie Keller	1945	217	157	3184	1939	1945	22-28	726	520	774	109	55	132	526	540	.295	.416	.529	.945
10	Joe DiMaggio	1941	297	160	3739	1936	1941	21-26	825	735	1163	214	69	198	816	336	.345	.408	.626	1.034
11	Arky Vaughan	1937	229	147	3712	1932	1937	20-25	849	572	1057	166	78	58	501	466	.334	.424	.491	.915
12	Chuck Klein	1933	289	160	3710	1928	1933	23-28	823	699	1209	246	50	191	727	297	.359	.412	.632	1.044
13	Babe Herman	1931	209	145	3559	1926	1931	23-28	851	534	1084	231	66	111	585	292	.340	.397	.559	.955

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/27/2013.

So, Mathews and Mays in 1957 is the only other time. What’s the biggest difference between them and Votto and Braun? It’s that column called Age. Those two extra years over Mays (and 3 over Mathews) are huge and almost certainly will limit the career counting numbers of Votto and Braun. Indeed, as both will turn 30 this year, they may well be at their peaks right now.

On the other hand, there are Bagwell and Boggs on this list, recent players who were as old or older and who still managed to compile two pretty stellar careers. So, we’ll just to have to enjoy watching to see how it turns out.

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11 years ago

Both of these guys were born in ’83, same year as M. Cabrera, Mauer, Pedroia, H. Ramirez, Reyes, Greinke, Hamels, and Verlander. Possibly up to 5 HOFs in that group.

brp

11 years ago

The initial tables don’t highlight Braun’s baserunning (30+ steals, <10 CS last two years for example), which closes some of the gap caused by Votto's insane OBP. There's no way you can build a top 5 of NL position players without those 2, and it's reasonable to argue putting them 1-2 in some order. BBREF doesn't seem to like Braun's defense either but he's turned into a pretty good OF after a poor start there and an abysmal start at 3B as a rookie.

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Doug

11 years ago

Reply to brp

Quite right, brp. Baserunning and Braun’s season’s worth (and a bit) of PAs more than Votto are reflected in his considerably higher career WAR numbers.

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to brp

If those traits continue though, they will even out career wise. OBP doesn’t age like baserunning. Votto is just such a hard out. As Braun inevitably slows down, the OBP will catch back up.

Brooklyn MIck

11 years ago

Doug, the Lefty O’Doul links aren’t working.

As for Braun and Votto, when I watch them, it “feels” like I’m watching HOFers.

Richard Chester

11 years ago

Reply to Brooklyn MIck

Speaking of O’Doul more than half of his Rbat was accumulated during the two years that Baker Bowl was his home park, 1929 and 1930.

Does anybody out there know how wRAA is converted to Rbat?

Artie Z

11 years ago

Reply to Brooklyn MIck

My guess is that it has something to do with apostrophe in O’Doul’s name as there was a similar problem with Paul O’Neill in some other post. It appears that in some part of the transition from the website to the post the link truncates at the apostrophe so instead of:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/o'doule01.shtml

we get:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/o

which I believe was the exact same link that Paul O’Neill had. I

Author

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to Artie Z

Exactly right, Artie. I checked the HTML code and it is correct, but the publishing software we are using is truncating it. Sorry, but nothing I can do about it.

Baltimorechop

11 years ago

Hope Joey doesn’t have the same problems with FedEx.

Editor

John Autin

11 years ago

I’m wondering why Votto’s debut was relatively late — September of his age-23 season. At 22, he was the best hitter in the AA Southern League, right above Braun in OPS. That was 2006. The Reds were playing Scott Hatteberg at 1B; he hit OK for a 1B, but they had very little money invested in him. But they never gave Votto a look. Through 2006, Votto had about 600 minor-league games, and his ability was pretty clear. But they kept him at AAA until September 2007, while continuing to play the 37-year-old, moderately productive Hatteberg. His first MLB start,… Read more »

Artie Z.

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Looking at Votto’s minor league record it appears as if the Reds were trying to turn him into an outfielder in 2007 as he played 40 games in LF and 2 games in RF for Louisville that year. I have a recollection (which may be completely wrong) that the Reds wanted to put Votto in the OF and move Dunn to 1B. Other than a few games when he was 18, 2007 is the only year in which Votto played the outfield (he played a few games in the majors as an outfielder as well). So that may be why… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

Thanks, Artie Z.

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

Seems like this is the case for a lot of first basemen. Even Joey f-ing Votto who destroyed the minor leagues had resistance to the show due to being stuck at first base. Some of the career WAR adjustments by position should really keep this in mind already. First basemen as a whole come up late. Most teams have a guy in AAA right now with an average MLB bat (above replacement) that they’re not calling up for fielding reasons. AAA in particular, where guys are often on the 40 man roster, I wonder how many of the all time… Read more »

mosc

11 years ago

What about some Braun steroid discussion? I mean, his 2012 numbers compared to his 2011 numbers, I ain’t seeing a medical difference at work there. I have long believed that what actually happened to Braun has not yet come to light. He has hinted at such with comments like “my teammates know what really happened and that’s enough”. I think it goes something like, dude gets herpies and gets a perscription for some topical steroids. Dude does not follow the correct notification procedures for taking a banned substance because he thought a doctor’s permission makes everything OK. Dude tells league… Read more »

Author

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

Whatever the particulars, the fact that Braun won his appeal quickly suggests to me that the explanation was innocent. If the technicality was less innocent, I suspect the appeal process would have been more drawn out.

Mike L

11 years ago

To Mosc’s point @13, and Doug’s at 14, it looks like we have new PED allegations against several players, including A-Rod, Nelson Cruz, Gio Gonzales, Melky. At this point, if MLB can’t find a way to deal with this issue, I may have to re-think my opposition to Bonds and Clemens. Let them all juice and we can just acknowledge that the numbers produced have the credibility of professional wrestling.

topper009

11 years ago

Reply to Mike L

Professional wrestling? If you are so convinced taking steroids magically makes you a hall of famer please explain 1) Why the entire league wide power increased from 92-93? Did all the players get together and decide to uniformly take steroids at the same rate and all increase HR% etc. 2) Why do pitchers who get Tommy John Surgery get a pass? I mean what is the real issue with steroids? That players have some advantage over the old timers and their numbers cant be fairly compared, or they are doing things beyond natural human capabilities? But having a surgery to… Read more »

Mike L

11 years ago

Reply to topper009

Topper, with all due respect, I didn’t say that steroids make you a Hall of Famer. Players take them because they think they improve performance, and that is indisputable.
We’ve just come off a very detailed and well reasoned discussion about steroids in “1962” done far more eloquently than I can by other posters, on both sides of the aisle, so I defer to them.

bstar

11 years ago

It’s amazing how much starting early in your career can make a huge difference in your counting stats. Look at two of the recent greats (Cabrera, Pujols) who started early and compare them to the relatively late-starting Braun and Votto. I’ll use data from start of career to age-28 season, which is where Ryan and Joey are right now: Cabrera – 1597 H / 277 HR / 984 RBI / 346 2B / 37.5 WAR APujols – 1531 H / 319 HR / 977 RBI / 342 2B / 62.1 WAR R Braun – 1089 H / 202 HR /… Read more »

Author

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

It is remarkable how much difference one or two years makes. I remember a study Bill James did back in the 80s. He compared two groups of players who both had very similar stats to start their careers. Only difference between the groups was starting age. In his analysis the group starting at age 21 would produce 50% more career value (think area under the curve) than the age 22 starters. James himself admitted that, at first, he didn’t believe the result and assumed he must have made an error. But, it was no error. Earlier start means higher peak… Read more »

topper009

11 years ago

Also Braun was hit by a pitch in the wrist in this game, mid 2009, by Tommy Hanson who was being a little baby because Braun took him deep twice in his career debut. Up to this game for his career Braun was at 454 G, 2012 PA, 109 HR, 345 RBI .312/.369/.575 he then sat out 3 games and continued on with < 100% wrist, and for the next 70 games put up a line of 302 PA, 10 HR, .235/.269/.400 If you remove these games from Braun's career line he is at 3552 PA, 3192 AB, 1022 H,… Read more »

brp

11 years ago

Reply to topper009

Yep. As to the Braun’s baserunning slowing down, perhaps, but Braun at 35 will probably be a better runner than Votto is now, and I truly think he’ll continue to get better in the OF until he does start to slow down. And while OBP doesn’t “age,” that also means Braun could definitely improve his OBP. If nothing else, not having Prince around has skyrocketed his IBBs (from < 5 every year to 15 last season).

Can't go wrong with either player, of course.

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to brp

Votto’s got better plate coverage, a better eye, better bat speed, etc. He is simply the hardest guy in baseball to get out and I don’t think there’s that close a second. Braun has a bigger swing, certainly faster by a wide margin, and plays a slightly more demanding position. Don’t get me wrong, I’d probably rather have Braun. That said, I don’t think we’re going to see a better OBP player than Votto unless somebody re-signs Barry.

Tim Pea

11 years ago

Ryan Braun is a PED user, he’s dead to me. Votto is the best hitter in baseball. I’m usually prejudice against non-Americans but stats don’t lie.