With the news of Adam LaRoche‘s new deal with Washington, I remembered his well-known history of slow starts and hot finishes. Thanks to B-R’s new batting split finder (beta), we can compare his 1st-half/2nd-half splits to those of other players.
I ran a batting split search covering the past 10 years (2003-12) for each half, with minimums of 1,500 PAs in the 1st half and 1,200 PAs in the 2nd half. There are 219 players who appeared in both searches. I copied them into Excel and calculated the differences.
For the record, the composite numbers are just slightly better in the 2nd half — unweighted average of +.002 in BA and +.008 in OPS — so we can fairly talk about individual 1st-half/2nd-half splits without making an adjustment.
LaRoche’s OPS difference of +.118 (2nd) is the 5th largest in the group. The only larger gap among active players is Troy Tulowitzki‘s +.143 (2nd).
Here are the 20 biggest gaps in OPS by half:
- Diff. / Half … Player
- .143 / 2nd … Troy Tulowitzki
- .132 / 2nd … Geoff Jenkins
- .122 / 1st … Hank Blalock
- .122 / 2nd … Carlos Delgado
- .118 / 2nd … Adam LaRoche
- .105 / 1st … Kevin Youkilis
- .098 / 2nd … Adrian Beltre
- .097 / 1st … Justin Morneau
- .096 / 2nd … Ryan Howard
- .092 / 1st … Eric Byrnes
- .090 / 2nd … Ryan Zimmerman
- .089 / 2nd … Aramis Ramirez
- .087 / 1st … Sean Casey
- .086 / 1st … Craig Biggio
- .086 / 1st … Ivan Rodriguez
- .085 / 2nd … Carlos Pena
- .084 / 1st … Reed Johnson
- .083 / 1st … Mike Lowell
- .083 / 2nd … Jimmy Rollins
- .081 / 2nd … Randy Winn
The top 20 OPS deltas for those better in the 1st half:
- Diff. / Half … Player
- .122 / 1st … Hank Blalock
- .105 / 1st … Kevin Youkilis
- .097 / 1st … Justin Morneau
- .092 / 1st … Eric Byrnes
- .087 / 1st … Sean Casey
- .086 / 1st … Craig Biggio
- .086 / 1st … Ivan Rodriguez
- .084 / 1st … Reed Johnson
- .083 / 1st … Mike Lowell
- .081 / 1st … Craig Counsell
- .080 / 1st … Scott Hatteberg
- .072 / 1st … Chase Utley
- .071 / 1st … Ian Kinsler
- .066 / 1st … Jose Bautista
- .063 / 1st … Jason Varitek
- .062 / 1st … Ben Zobrist
- .062 / 1st … Jose Guillen
- .059 / 1st … Paul Lo Duca
- .057 / 1st … Jonny Gomes
- .056 / 1st … Brandon Inge
And the top 20 who are better in the 2nd half:
- Diff. / Half … Player
- .143 / 2nd … Troy Tulowitzki
- .132 / 2nd … Geoff Jenkins
- .122 / 2nd … Carlos Delgado
- .118 / 2nd … Adam LaRoche
- .098 / 2nd … Adrian Beltre
- .096 / 2nd … Ryan Howard
- .090 / 2nd … Ryan Zimmerman
- .089 / 2nd … Aramis Ramirez
- .085 / 2nd … Carlos Pena
- .083 / 2nd … Jimmy Rollins
- .081 / 2nd … Randy Winn
- .075 / 2nd … Luke Scott
- .074 / 2nd … Robinson Cano
- .070 / 2nd … Juan Rivera
- .069 / 2nd … Aubrey Huff
- .068 / 2nd … Chase Headley
- .068 / 2nd … Mark Ellis
- .066 / 2nd … Jeff Francoeur
- .064 / 2nd … Juan Uribe
- .064 / 2nd … Eric Chavez
LaRoche in isolation
A detailed look at LaRoche’s splits by half turns up a bit of a puzzle:
Split | G | GS | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | tOPS+ | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st Half | 666 | 607 | 2618 | 2312 | 307 | 572 | 156 | 6 | 94 | 365 | 272 | 579 | .247 | .326 | .442 | .768 | .288 | 88 |
2nd Half | 520 | 482 | 2051 | 1847 | 261 | 542 | 125 | 4 | 103 | 319 | 174 | 456 | .293 | .353 | .533 | .886 | .335 | 115 |
(And here you can see the year-by-year splits for 1st half and 2nd half.)
But what’s actually going on? A large change in BA, in a sample of this size, usually reflects some improvement in strikeout rate. But his SO rate is the same in each half, 22% of PAs, 25% of ABs. The change in BA comes entirely from balls in play (BAbip). Given what we know about BAbip, it seems odd to see such a large in-season gap built up over nine seasons.
Now to the power: His increased HR rate in the 2nd half (5.6% of ABs vs. 4.1%) suggests that he’s driving the ball more as the year goes on. However, his doubles rate is exactly the same, 6.7% of ABs in each half. Doubles as a percentage of hits actually go down a bit (27% to 23%), as do the combined extra-base hits (45% to 43%).
And, for whatever it’s worth, his walk rate also declines in the 2nd half, from 10.4% to 8.5%. The combined walk rate of the study group held steady at 9%.
I don’t know what it all adds up to. LaRoche’s breakdowns don’t seem to tell a typical story of a significant change in results. Am I missing something?
Lastly, his splits by month:
Split | G | GS | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | tOPS+ | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
April/March | 196 | 181 | 777 | 682 | 83 | 152 | 43 | 0 | 27 | 104 | 92 | 188 | .223 | .317 | .405 | .721 | .267 | 78 |
May | 226 | 205 | 887 | 771 | 107 | 190 | 60 | 3 | 26 | 124 | 99 | 188 | .246 | .330 | .433 | .763 | .288 | 88 |
June | 178 | 160 | 694 | 624 | 81 | 157 | 37 | 1 | 29 | 101 | 60 | 146 | .252 | .317 | .454 | .771 | .281 | 88 |
July | 176 | 165 | 695 | 629 | 86 | 183 | 38 | 2 | 34 | 99 | 54 | 143 | .291 | .344 | .520 | .864 | .323 | 110 |
August | 199 | 184 | 798 | 712 | 110 | 215 | 41 | 2 | 42 | 131 | 76 | 169 | .302 | .369 | .542 | .911 | .341 | 122 |
Sept/Oct | 211 | 194 | 818 | 741 | 101 | 217 | 62 | 2 | 39 | 125 | 65 | 201 | .293 | .348 | .540 | .887 | .349 | 115 |
This table shows that measuring the “halves” as April-June and July-Sept. — which is closer to the actual midpoint than is the All-Star break — would yield an even bigger gain in the hot months: unweighted BA/OPS averages of .240/.752 for April-June, .295/.887 for July-Sept. That’s +.055 in BA and +.135 in OPS. And while the BA and OPS rise consistently from April through August, there’s a huge jump from June to July. All three months in the 2nd half are very good, while all three in the 1st half are mediocre to poor.
Is there a simple theme to these splits? For instance, if LaRoche simply preferred warmer weather, you’d expect to find some evidence in his ballpark splits and his day/night splits. But I can’t see it. So, let the speculation begin!