Beltré and Brooksie

A lengthy musing about Adrian Beltre and a certain legendary third sacker….

Given Beltre’s strong hitting since 2010 (combined 137 OPS+) plus two more Gold Gloves, the Hall of Fame speculation is no longer idle stathead talk. He’s already #11 on B-R’s career WAR list among third basemen, and could move up to #7 as soon as this year. (WAR values herein are from Baseball-Reference unless noted.) Even by conventional measures, his counting stats — among 3Bs, he’s already 13th in hits, 9th in total bases, 7th in extra-base hits — plus his 4 Gold Gloves puts him within sight of HOF range, before his 34th birthday.

Which HOF-caliber third baseman’s career most resembles Beltre’s? It has to be Brooks Robinson.

 

And not just because a famous Oriole said so. Check out these leader boards:

WAR Defensive Runs (Rfield) by 3Bs through age 33:

Rk Player Rfield From To Age G
1 Brooks Robinson 204 1955 1970 18-33 2040
2 Adrian Beltre 187 1998 2012 19-33 2115
3 Buddy Bell 184 1972 1985 20-33 1978
4 Clete Boyer 160 1955 1970 18-33 1695
5 Graig Nettles 159 1967 1978 22-33 1533
6 Robin Ventura 149 1989 2001 21-33 1698
7 Scott Rolen 138 1996 2008 21-33 1620
8 Mike Schmidt 116 1972 1983 22-33 1638
9 Lee Tannehill 113 1903 1912 22-31 1090
10 Jimmy Collins 113 1895 1903 25-33 1146

(Fangraphs has Robinson 204, Bell 187, Beltre 164, Nettles and C.Boyer 158, through age 33. Career leaders, Robinson 294, Bell 176, Beltre 163.)

Games Played at 3B through age 33:

Rk Player G/3B From To Age OPS+
1 Ron Santo 2102 1960 1973 20-33 128
2 Adrian Beltre 2059 1998 2012 19-33 112
3 Brooks Robinson 2026 1955 1970 18-33 109
4 Eddie Mathews 2003 1952 1965 20-33 147

Now for a look at the hitting side:

OPS+ and its components

Through age 33, their OPS+ are similar — 112 Beltre, 109 Robinson — and they’re built in similar ways. Here are their slash rates compared to league rates (park-adjusted, pitchers excluded):

  • Beltre …….. BA .280 vs. .264, 106% / OBP .331 vs. .333, 99% / SLG .476 vs. .422, 113%
  • Robinson … BA .274 vs. .253, 108% / OBP .326 vs. .324, 101% / SLG .422 vs. .387, 109%

Both are virtually average in reaching base, and derive their positive OPS+ from slugging.

WAR Groupings

Various seasonal groupings of their WAR are very close:

  • Age 24-33 combined: Beltre 52.0, Robinson 50.4
    — per 162 games: Robinson 5.3, Beltre 5.2
  • 3 best seasons: Beltre 23.4, Robinson 23.0
  • 5 best seasons: Robinson 34.6, Beltre 34.3
  • 7 best seasons: tied at 43.0
  • Best 7-year run: Robinson 39.9, Beltre 36.5 (but that span does not include Beltre’s best year)

Their WAR through age 31 was very close — 48.8 to 48.1 for Beltre, but Brooks ahead per 162 games (4.9 to 4.7). Beltre had better years at 32-33, giving him an edge of 61.1-55.3 through age 33. But Robinson had a big year at 34 — 5.8 WAR (6th among AL hitters), 4th in MVP vote. If we gave Robinson that extra year in the comparison — which would give Brooks the same edge in G and PA that Beltre enjoys in the comparison through 33 — they’d come out exactly even at 61.1 WAR, and both would have 11 seasons of 3+ WAR.

(Through age 33, Fangraphs has Robinson well ahead, 73.0 to 62.8. Few players are seen more differently by the two WAR methods than Robinson: FG gives him 94.6 career WAR, while B-R gives him 72.7 WAR. It doesn’t much affect his rank on the career lists; FG has him 4th among all 3Bs, while B-R has him 6th (applying a “50% of games” standard to define who’s a 3B). Beltre looks much the same by either method: B-R says 61.1 WAR and 11th all-time, FG says 62.8 WAR and 16th (same standard).)

Aging

Will Beltre be able keep pace with Robinson? Brooks was unusually productive from 34-37, adding 16.7 WAR (4.2 per year). Just four other 3Bs ever amassed 15 WAR in that age range: Mike Schmidt (23.0), Chipper Jones (20.0), Pete Rose (17.3) and Jackie Robinson (16.9). (Rose and Jackie were not career 3Bs.)

Starting at age 33, the number of N-WAR seasons by all 3Bs:

  • 5-WAR: 10, 5, 3, 2 at 36. (1 at 37, none older.)
  • 3-WAR: 36, 21, 16, 8 at 36.

Aging notes for all the 50-WAR third basemen (ranked by total WAR after age 33):

  1. Chipper Jones (27.3 WAR after 33) stayed huge through 36 and lasted through 40 without ever falling under 2.1 WAR in a season.
  2. Mike Schmidt (24.2) stayed huge through age 37.
  3. Darrell Evans (20.3) averaged 3.1 WAR from 34-40, but moved to 1B at 36.
  4. Wade Boggs (19.8) from 24-33 averaged an MVP-caliber 6.8 WAR; he remained productive from 34- 38, but with a high of 4.3 WAR.
  5. Brooks Robinson (17.4) from 27-37 never fell below 3.1 WAR.
  6. George Brett (16.4) remained a fine hitter through 37, but he moved to 1B at 34.
  7. Graig Nettles (13.3) remained a regular 3B through age 41, but his last year over 3 WAR came at 33.
  8. Jimmy Collins (12.7) averaged 4.6 WAR for 34-35, then totaled 3.5 in his last three years.
  9. Stan Hack (11.8) was big at 35 against wartime competition, but in two more years against the big boys he totaled 4.0 WAR.
  10. Scott Rolen (10.6, still active) last reached 4 WAR at 31, averaged 2.6 from 32-37.
  11. Ron Cey (8.3) after 34 never reached 2 WAR, though he was OK through 38.
  12. Ken Boyer (5.8) was MVP at 33, never topped 2.4 WAR in six more years.
  13. Robin Ventura (5.1) had 3.4 WAR at 34, but added just 1.7 WAR in two more years.
  14. Sal Bando (5.0) notched 5.3 WAR at 34 but then gave some back in his last two years.
  15. Eddie Mathews (4.3) was still big at 33, had one more solid year but done at 36.
  16. Buddy Bell (4.0) at 32 had 5.8 WAR, completing a 6-year run at that level, but his last 5 years averaged less than 1 WAR.
  17. Home Run Baker (3.1) had 3.8 WAR at 33, not much in two more years.
  18. Ron Santo (-1.8) retired after 34.

And note these 3Bs who had 40+ WAR through 33 but didn’t get to 50:

  • Toby Harrah (6.2) had big years at 33 (6.3 WAR) and 36 (4.0), but was done at 37.
  • Matt Williams (5.0) at 33 had 3.8 WAR (and 142 RBI), totaled 1.2 in four more years.
  • Bob Elliott (4.2) had 3.1 WAR at 34, totaled 1.1 in three more years.
  • Heinie Groh (2.9) had 3.2 WAR at 34, barely played in three more years.
  • John McGraw (0) last played regularly at 28 (a fantastic half season) and retired at 33.

Not a career 3B:

  • Paul Molitor (24.3 WAR after 33, 72.5 career) moved from 3B at 33 and had several big years as a DH.
  • Pete Rose (17.7 WAR after 33, 76.7 career) played 3B only from 34-37, averaging 4.3 WAR with the last of his 3-WAR seasons.
  • Harmon Killebrew (16.4 after 33, 55.8 career) was a regular 3B only at age 23, 30, and 33-34, and played his last games there at 35; last reached 3 WAR at 34.
  • Joe Torre (1.7 after 33, 54.2 career) was a regular 3B only at 30-31 and 34; MVP at 30 was his last big year.

Since Beltre’s glove is still earning raves, he’ll likely be able to stay at 3B for some time to come, which would help his WAR production. An example of how moving off 3B hurts WAR: Brett’s 148 OPS+ in ’79 was worth 6.9 oWAR as a 3B, but a virtual match in ’88 (149 OPS+ playing just as much) earned 5.0 oWAR as a 1B.

Let’s close out this long post with a couple more tables of third basemen since 1893:

WAR by 3Bs through age 33:

Rk Player WAR/pos From To Age G PA
1 Eddie Mathews 87.6 1952 1965 20-33 2089 9015
2 Mike Schmidt 78.8 1972 1983 22-33 1638 6892
3 George Brett 71.4 1973 1986 20-33 1741 7479
4 Wade Boggs 68.5 1982 1991 24-33 1482 6725
5 Ron Santo 68.4 1960 1973 20-33 2126 8979
6 Adrian Beltre 61.1 1998 2012 19-33 2115 8697
7 Buddy Bell 57.6 1972 1985 20-33 1978 8315
8 Home Run Baker 56.4 1908 1919 22-33 1412 6036
9 Scott Rolen 56.0 1996 2008 21-33 1620 6847
10 Brooks Robinson 55.3 1955 1970 18-33 2040 8443
11 Chipper Jones 54.2 1993 2005 21-33 1651 7066
12 Ken Boyer 52.9 1955 1964 24-33 1523 6445
13 Sal Bando 52.1 1966 1977 22-33 1627 6751
14 Graig Nettles 49.5 1967 1978 22-33 1533 6204

WAR Batting Runs (Rbat) by 3Bs through age 33:

(Note that this table has been shortened by deleting ranks 15-27 and 31-47.)

Rk Player Rbat From To Age G PA
1 Eddie Mathews 495 1952 1965 20-33 2089 9015
2 Wade Boggs 392 1982 1991 24-33 1482 6725
3 Mike Schmidt 385 1972 1983 22-33 1638 6892
4 Chipper Jones 369 1993 2005 21-33 1651 7066
5 George Brett 348 1973 1986 20-33 1741 7479
6 Ron Santo 301 1960 1973 20-33 2126 8979
7 John McGraw 301 1893 1906 20-33 987 4485
8 Home Run Baker 257 1908 1919 22-33 1412 6036
9 David Wright 242 2004 2012 21-29 1262 5453
10 Edgar Martinez 241 1987 1996 24-33 936 3911
11 Bob Elliott 230 1939 1950 22-33 1629 6912
12 Scott Rolen 215 1996 2008 21-33 1620 6847
13 Sal Bando 207 1966 1977 22-33 1627 6751
14 Al Rosen 201 1947 1956 23-32 1044 4374
28 Adrian Beltre 142 1998 2012 19-33 2115 8697
29 Richie Hebner 142 1968 1981 20-33 1610 6341
30 Carney Lansford 141 1978 1990 21-33 1722 7328
48 Graig Nettles 87 1967 1978 22-33 1533 6204
49 Hank Thompson 87 1947 1956 21-30 932 3569
50 Brooks Robinson 85 1955 1970 18-33 2040 8443

Ratio of Offensive to Defensive WAR (Career)

For all HOF 3Bs plus all others with 50+ WAR (ordered from lowest to highest ratio):

  1. Robinson, 1.1
  2. Beltre, 1.9
  3. Bell, 1.9
  4. Ventura, 2.2
  5. Collins, 2.3
  6. Nettles, 2.3
  7. Rolen, 2.4
  8. Schmidt, 4.9
  9. K.Boyer, 5.0
  10. Baker, 5.8
  11. Boggs, 6.1
  12. Bando, 6.7
  13. Santo, 7.3
  14. Cey, 7.8
  15. A-Rod, 9.2 (still needs 111 G at 3B to become a career 3B)
  16. Lindstrom, 9.6
  17. Mathews, 16.5
  18. Traynor, 18.9
  19. Kell, 20.1
  20. D.White, 28.0
  21. Hack, 36.3
  22. Brett, 67.0
  23. Chipper, negative dWAR
  24. Evans, negative dWAR

Only time will tell whether Beltre continues tracking the Hall’s greatest defensive third baseman. His reputation will never catch up to the legend’s, but he’s making inroads.

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Doug
Doug
11 years ago

Great stuff as always, John. The big difference offensively is in counting stats, with Beltre having almost 200 more XBH through age 33 – 839 to 643. Beltre’s XBH total is already more than Robinson’s career total. As you noted, that translates into a 54 point edge in raw slugging percentage, and 35 points adjusted. I am surprised the adjusted totals are as much as they are inasmuch as Beltre played his first twelve seasons in parks mostly known for being pitcher-friendly. However, he has certainly taken advantage of his friendly environs the past 3 seasons, almost matching or exceeding… Read more »

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug – I think what John is assuming with that sentence is that the calculation of OPS+ includes the pitchers’ hitting stats in the league totals. However, I’m pretty sure that’s not correct. From what I find on Baseball Reference’s website, the first step in calculating OPS+ is to remove pitcher’s hitting stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/bat_glossary.shtml

About halfway down the page is where the OPS+ explanation begins.

kds
kds
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Correct, OPS+ does not include pitcher hitting. Go to any non-DH league and you will find the league average OPS+ to be << 100 because the pitchers hitting drags it down. (2012 NL average OPS+ = 94.) (Can we look up OPS+ by year, league, and position? The question is; does the average DH hit better than the average of the position players? Maybe a little, but certainly not much. So, Beltre may or may not be in a higher hitting environment because he is being compared to DH's.)

Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Good point John,

I guess because I saw Robinson play only in his later years (starting about 1969), I never perceived him as having much pop. Certainly not to the degree of Beltre. But, looking at Robinson’s prime and considering when it was, starting to look a bit closer to Adrian.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago

While Beltre has certainly benefited from his recent home parks, I also wonder if he hasn’t changed his approach to hitting. His walk and strikeout percentages are all under his career totals the past three years. His career SO% is 15.0% but the past three years it’s been 12.8%, 10.1%, and 12.5%. His career BB% is 6.7% but the past three years it’s been 6.2%, 4.8%, and 5.5%. (actually it was 4.0% the year before that; so his BB% has been down for the past 4 years but his K% only the past 3). It’s actually pretty amazing that he’s… Read more »

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Fair point John. There probably are some differences in visibility in different parks. Though Beltre’s BB% actually dropped his last year in Seattle which might indicate that at least the drop in his BB% isn’t park related.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Beltre was noticeably pressing in Seattle as their offense got progressively weaker. In his last year he was quite out of sorts and was swinging at a lot of bad pitches for quite an extended period.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

As you say Ed, one hesitates to speculate on HOF chances for 3rd basemen. That being said, Beltre could well surpass quite an array of counting stat milestones. The sabermetric-minded voter will know those counting stats should be adjusted for era, but I suspect many voters still perceive counting stats (especially milestones) without doing those adjustments. Beltre has already passed Santo on doubles and HR, and will move past him in hits and runs in 2013, and in RBI in 2014. After the 2014 season, he has a good chance to be above 2500 hits, 500 doubles and 400 HR.… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
11 years ago

I think Beltre’s 2004 season still leaves questions on a lot of people’s minds. Here’s a guy who started very young, but had five full seasons under his belt coming in to 2004. He had 3400 PA, 99 HR’s and for three consecutive years had an OPS+ of under 100. Suddenly he goes nuts. 48 HR, 121 RBI, .334/.388/.629, OPS+ of 163, 9.3 WAR. He signs the monster contract with Seattle, and for his entire five years at Seattle he regresses to a solid, unspectacular bat (OPS+101) and good glove, culminating is a poor final year. Then he goes to… Read more »

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Seeing Camilli’s name brought to mind a story that I think I read in the BJHBA about Charlie Grimm not being very happy with whoever the Cubbies GM was at the time trading him away. But in looking at the numbers that he put up in his first 3 seasons it’s hard to say that it was a bad trade. Camilli and Hurst were both about the same age and while they had both put up pretty comparable numbers the season before the trade Hurst was coming off a string of 5 good to excellent major league seasons. And strangely… Read more »

Artie Z
Artie Z
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

The first player I thought of was Luis Gonzalez, who had a 109 OPS+ through 4372 PAs (age 30), with a career high (prior to his age 31 season) of 123 at age 25. He then posted a 140 OPS+ in his next 5 years (1999-2003) in Arizona, one of which is, of course, his off the charts year (posted a 174 OPS+ in 2001), but his lowest seasonal OPS+ from 1999-2003 was his 125 in 2002. I think part of what we might be missing (as a group) is that while we have a good idea about park effects… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

John A, I’m not really sure. It was just unusual and it was a contract year and it’s stuck in the middle of an B (except for fielding) 12 year career. As to some of the others, O’Neill switched teams and switched stadiums (Bill James called the O’Neill for Roberto Kelly a “classic Yankee blunder.”) Cooper did as well, and he was going into his year 27 season when he want to the Brewers, who played him full time, whereas Boston platooned him. Cooper was very good in 1975 (OPS+ 143) for the Red Sox in 333 PA. Kent took… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

These are all good responses, so let me refine my question a little more and tilt it away from my first question. Forget age, and forget the incredible 2004 season. Take a look at his aggregate totals through 12 years, which include the 2004 numbers: 6877 PA and an OPS+ of 105. Any historical precedent for a player with that level of performance, over such a long period, and no other years beside 2004 over 114, have the following three years at an OPS+ of 141,131, and 137?

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

There have been 36 players with an OPS+ of 131 or more for their 13th to 15th seasons. Of those players the second lowest OPS+ for their first 12 year seasons is Roberto Clemente with an OPS+ of 118, with 5 seasons of less than 114 and 4 seasons of less than 100. Third lowest is Cy Williams with an OPS+ of 119 with 7 seasons of less than 114 and 4 seasons of less than 100. Fourth lowest is Ellis Burks with an OPS+ of 121 with 5 seasons of less than 114 and 2 seasons of less than… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
11 years ago

Thanks, Richard. I think it makes the Beltre case even more strange. Even with 2004, he’s the clear leader in slightly above average.

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

JA and others: The player I thought of immediately on my rather belated reading of this post is Mickey Vernon, and when I looked at his OPS+ figures, they do parallel Beltre’s but at a later age. He had a great season at age 28 after missing two years to WWII, then dropped to mediocrity only to rise to a much higher level from age 35 through 38. In the revised original BJHBA, there’s a long essay on the possible cause of Vernon’s erratic production from year to year until he settled in during the mid-1950’s to some steady and… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Joost’s career turned around when he started wearing eye-glasses.

Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Not easy trying to find good comps for Beltre. FWIW, Beltre is the ONLY player since 1901 to play at least 12 seasons and have, in those first 12 seasons, exactly one qualifying 160 OPS+ season and no other qualifying seasons of 115 OPS+ or better. Beltre is also one of only 3 players with a qualifying 130 OPS+ season in each of his 13th thru 15th seasons, and one of only 12 players with even two of those three seasons meeting that criterion. Looking at it a bit differently, there are 57 players with 5000 PAs through age 30… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Mike, your note does touch on something that will be key to any chance of Beltre being elected: the narrative. HHS is not so much a place for narratives as it is a place for analysis built around stats, yet when it comes to seriously considering if a player has a chance at the HOF, then the narrative does come into play. It has to. Beltre’s narrative has some things working against him: 1) He was viewed as a consistent underachiever early in his career; 2) He had a UFO season in his walk year when PED usage was in… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Ha, I never finished item 4. Tough hitter’s park. As we saw, perhaps, with a David Wright, hitters may change their swings, for the worse, in tough parks. The fact that he elevated his hitting after Seattle says something.

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

MikeD- I think you’ve summed it up pretty well and as JA points out in 15 there is a good chance that he will begin to decline in the near future. But I do think that there are forces working in his favor as well. First, I think that the notion that third basemen are represented in the Hall is becoming a little more widely accepted even among traditional baseball writers. I think that by the time Santo was selected many if not most of the non-advanced-metrics crowd had come on board with the idea that that was correcting a… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

He totally has things going for him. I’m not saying he shouldn’t be considered, just mentioning what he has going against him, yet that he’s doing things to address every one of those issues that previously would have been used against him. His best bet it to remain productive for a few more years. I remember Don Mattingly had some advice for Bernie Williams. Mattingly, of course, would know something about having a HOF-caliber career, but not quite enough peak or longevity to make the HOF. After Bernie Williams 2002 season, when Williams was 33 and coming off another fine… Read more »

bstar
bstar
11 years ago

I think what will potentially separate Beltre from Brooks is that Beltre can reach some pretty impressive counting stat milestones.

400 HR, 1500 RBI, 550-600 2B, and even possibly 3000 hits are within his grasp. If he finishes strongly, he could challenge Chipper Jones’ record for most RBI by a third baseman, which is somewhere around 1600.

If he even approaches these milestones, I think he’ll get in pretty easily. He’s really close to the WAR totals of recent inductees Larkin and Alomar.

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago

Using baseball-reference’s value numbers, Beltre currently has more career “Rfield” than “Rbat“, 187 Rfield to 142 Rbat. Only four men have been elected to the Hall by the BBWAA who had more career Rfield than Rbat: Brooks Robinson, Ozzie Smith, Luis Aparicio and Walter “Rabbit” Maranville. Those four guys had huge gaps between their fielding and batting numbers — Beltre’s are much more balanced. As Bill James as often pointed out, guys with balanced skills sometimes get less attention than guys with equal total value but more of an extreme emphasis on one skill, as it’s the extremes that capture… Read more »

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

The only players with -100 or less Rbat in the HOF are Ozzie, Rabbit, Mazeroski and Aparicio. If Vizquel were to somehow make it in, his -244 Rbat would break Rabbit’s current low of -228.

Tim Pea
Tim Pea
11 years ago

A perfect, fantastic story by Tom Verducci about why he will never vote for an admitted steroid user for the HoF. He nails the “everybody was doing it” crowd and the “so what” argument as well. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130108/hall-of-fame-ballot-steroids-mark-mcgwire-barry-bonds-roger-clemens/?sct=hp_t13_a3&eref=sihp

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  Tim Pea

Very interesting read Timmy. I was looking at the ballots of the writers from mlb.com and the whole thing is just a mess. It’s a pretty even spread between those that are going to vote for whoever, PEDs be damned, and those whose ballots look something like Morris, Biggio and McGriff.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  RJ

This is an interesting analysis by Nate Silver looking at HOF ballots of voters who did and did not vote for Bonds.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/08/suspicion-of-steroid-use-could-keep-bagwell-and-piazza-out-of-hall/

Seems like both Piazza and Bagwell are assumed to be PEDs users by the non-Bonds voters. I was also surprised that non-Bonds voters were less likely to vote for Trammell and Murphy. But then I saw that several voters only put one name of their ballot. That one name being Jack Morris. Seriously, some of these guys need to lose their voting privileges, their BBWAA membership and possibly their jobs.

Tim Pea
Tim Pea
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

That’s an interesting tactic, putting down only Morris. There was a local school board election here last year in which a longtime gadfly was elected to the board by convincing his supporters to only vote for him. They were allowed 3 choices and the top 3 vote getters were elected to the board. Interesting strategy, and it might be a bit of a backlash to the unfair campaign against Morris, IMO.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

John – Your final sentence was my reaction as well.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

BTW, Baseball Think Factory (BBT) is tracking the voting. About 26% of votes have been revealed and so far Biggio is the top candidate though with only 68.2%. Morris is second with 62.9%…last year his final % was about 8% higher then BBT tracking. So he’ll likely end up just short this year.

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Yeah, I heard that too. I was surprised at the low total for Morris. I thought this was his year in, but I guess the bigger names are stealing some votes, plus some of the writers who are protesting by sending in empty ballots or only one name are not helping Morris either. That’s fine with me. As far as zero players getting in this year, I think it’s a little sad with so many qualified players on the ballot. I wish they’d go back to the runoff election if no one gets 75%. Luke Appling in ’64 and Red… Read more »

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

And what happens next year when Maddux, Glavine, Mussina and Thomas all debut? And the year after that with Pedro, Randy Johnson and Smoltz?

Mike L
Mike L
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Wallace Matthews has a story in ESPN http://espn.go.com/new-york/story/_/id/8814011/barry-bonds-roger-clemens-do-not-belong-baseball-hall-fame Matthews, and Verducci, and most of us here on HHS talking about it, are all really trying to do the same thing; finding some type of an intellectual construct to deal with an entire era of users. I am old enough to remember when 500 HR’s was a mountaintop, and there were only a handful of 50 HR seasons. Steroids blew that all up. But there is no one answer that is going to fit all types of situations, and undiscovered cheaters are going to slip by while high quality and possibly… Read more »

Tim Pea
Tim Pea
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Think about it this way Mike, suppose we swap the word gambling for steroids? The first argument would be that gambling goes to the integrity of the game much more than steroids, after all steroids were taken to help win games, not intentionally lose games. But Verducci points out in his article all the kids that missed out getting to the majors because some other guy was using steroids. I’m sure a scoundrel gambler has probably slipped into the HoF, but never an admitted gambler, or game thrower.

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  Tim Pea

The Georgia Peach and the Grey Eagle almost assuredly bet on games that they knew were fixed. The evidence was as strong as the case against Roger Clemens taking PEDs. Using the suddenly popular “character clause,” ignored by BBWAA only until now, I have no doubt who I would keep out if I had to pick from those groups. Cobb and Speaker would be out, just based on character. I consider what they did to be far worse. Add in that Speaker was a member of the Ku Klan Klan (also known at the time), and it gets worse. Yet… Read more »

Tim Pea
Tim Pea
11 years ago
Reply to  Tim Pea

Well Mike let’s not sully the reputation of group that’s done so much for this country, that being the KKK. The Klan was not the only group in this country that lynched blacks, and besides since they wore masks you couldn’t be certain exactly who was doing the lynching. Kind of like steroid usage actually, since we’re not sure… obviously I’m joking. Listen, I hear you on the character clause creating confusion. How would you handle a player that was a racist during his 20s, but then repented in say his 40’s? Could the guy actually get extra credit for… Read more »

Tim Pea
Tim Pea
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Well I think Verducci says he revisited Bagwell after first voting for him, I’ll have to reread the article. There were some things he mentioned about Bagwell that I was not aware of and it’s damning. Let’s face it, some cheaters will get in, some are already there, but allowing someone that’s admitted to, or been caught into the HoF is like a cop that looks the other way when the mayor’s car is speeding.