Nick Swisher: a little bit Roberto Clemente, a little bit Von Hayes

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With Nick Swisher’s new deal with the Indians, let’s take a look at some comps and projections for his career performance.

Nick Swisher / Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Here are players who, through their Age 31 season, had a 118 OPS+ (minimum 4000 plate appearances):

Rk	Player	PA	OPS+	AB	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Roberto Clemente	7031	118	6548	143	841	.310	.348	.455	.803	*9/8745	PIT
2	Carlos Beltran	6520	118	5719	263	987	.281	.357	.496	.853	*8/D97	KCR-TOT-NYM
3	Phil Cavarretta	6459	118	5686	67	777	.293	.370	.413	.783	*3879	CHC
4	Joe Judge	5572	118	4796	40	556	.296	.378	.417	.795	*3/9	WSH
5	Thurman Munson	5486	118	4962	110	662	.292	.347	.413	.760	*2/D9735	NYY
6	Stan Hack	5387	118	4649	43	455	.304	.391	.408	.799	*5/3	CHC
7	Von Hayes	5379	118	4658	139	646	.272	.360	.430	.790	9387/5D	CLE-PHI
8	Jesse Barfield	5289	118	4664	239	709	.259	.338	.471	.809	*9/8D7	TOR-TOT-NYY
9	Bill White	5151	118	4645	163	690	.294	.354	.473	.827	*37/89	NYG-SFG-STL
10	Nick Swisher	5013	118	4241	209	673	.256	.361	.467	.828	*9387/D1	OAK-CHW-NYY
11	Kevin McReynolds	5000	118	4519	183	695	.269	.326	.453	.779	*78/9	SDP-NYM
12	Joe Rudi	4959	118	4539	141	654	.273	.318	.436	.754	*73/9D85	KCA-OAK-CAL
13	Curtis Granderson	4799	118	4224	210	591	.262	.341	.492	.834	*8/7D	DET-NYY
14	John Stone	4764	118	4281	74	679	.313	.377	.472	.849	798	DET-WSH
15	Nick Markakis	4556	118	4055	117	549	.295	.365	.455	.819	*9/78D3	BAL
16	Elmer Valo	4492	118	3707	43	410	.285	.402	.396	.798	*97/8	PHA

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/23/2012.

This is quite a list. Some guys are greats. Some guys are overrated. Some guys are underrated.

What might the future hold for Swisher? Here’s what the guys on the list above did for the rest of their careers:

Rk	Player	PA	OPS+	From	To	Age	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Joe Judge	3606	109	1926	1934	32-40	31	478	.300	.378	.424	.802	*3	WSH-TOT-BOS
2	Roberto Clemente	3180	157	1967	1972	32-37	97	464	.334	.384	.521	.905	*9/8	PIT
3	Stan Hack	3121	123	1942	1947	32-37	14	187	.296	.399	.377	.776	*5/3	CHC
4	Carlos Beltran	1829	137	2009	2012	32-35	71	256	.288	.371	.497	.868	*98/D	NYM-TOT-STL
5	Elmer Valo	1599	107	1953	1961	32-40	15	191	.275	.388	.379	.767	97/8	PHA-KCA-TOT-BRO-LAD-CLE
6	Bill White	1527	110	1966	1969	32-35	39	180	.256	.341	.394	.735	*3	PHI-STL
7	Phil Cavarretta	1242	118	1949	1955	32-38	28	143	.291	.383	.430	.813	*3/97	CHC-CHW
8	Joe Rudi	1118	84	1979	1982	32-35	38	156	.227	.283	.385	.668	*7/3D9	CAL-BOS-OAK
9	Kevin McReynolds	1039	102	1992	1994	32-34	28	112	.248	.336	.418	.754	*7/9D	KCR-NYM
10	Von Hayes	673	73	1991	1992	32-33	4	50	.225	.304	.306	.611	/*987D3	PHI-CAL
11	Thurman Munson	419	95	1979	1979	32-32	3	39	.288	.340	.374	.714	/*2D3	NYY
12	John Stone	244	86	1938	1938	32-32	3	28	.244	.337	.380	.718	/*798	WSH
13	Jesse Barfield	105	22	1992	1992	32-32	2	7	.137	.210	.221	.431	/*9	NYY

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/23/2012.

These guys are ranked by plate appearances. Three folks from the 1st list don’t show up on this one: Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson both just finished their Age 31 seasons, so they have no stats for Age 32 onward. Nick Markasis is actually still younger, and so he shouldn’t really even be on the first list.

There are a few guys on this list–Munson, Stone, and Barfield–who played just one more season despite a solid OPS+ through Age 31. Munson died late in his Age 32 season, while Stone’s performance trailed off and he contracted tuberculosis in that final season. Barfield was just done.

Two guys really stick out–Clemente and Beltran both blossomed at Age 31 and actually hit much better in the second half of their careers. Beltran, of course, benefits from having not finished his career yet–we can expect his OPS+ to trail off.

Looking at these 13 guys, their post-31 career average performance is 1,516 plate appearances with a weighted average OPS+ of, you guessed it, 118.

The good news for the Indians is that they can reasonably expect Swisher to maintain his career OPS+ of 118, which is a decline from his recent years but well within reasonable expectation. The bad news is that if he manages only 1,516 plate appearances, he won’t have played all that much on his new 4-year contract.

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11 years ago

Andy – Thanks for profiling the Indians’ latest acquisition. Indians’ fans seem ecstatic over the signing though personally I thought it was a poor decision. It’s the classic front office maneuver of trying to distract the fan base by dangling shiny, sparkly things.

The problem I have with the signing is this….the Indians are likely to be bad for at least a few more years. By the time the return to competitiveness in 3-4 years (if that even happens), Swisher will be in decline and his contract will prevent us from signing/acquiring players who could actually help us.

MikeD

11 years ago

Reply to Ed

It really depends what the Indians do with Swisher over the coming four/five years. Similar to the Cubs signing Sanchez, the Indians could get a good year to year-and-a-half out of Swisher, and then turn around and trade him for another piece or two that will help them in their rebuilding. With the current inflation in contracts and Swishers very consistent production, his contract is certainly moveable. Same thing with Sanchez. He can help the Cubs now, but his greatest value may come in a trade a year or two from now.

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Andy

11 years ago

Reply to MikeD

I can’t say I agree with this. At $14 million per year, Swisher is getting paid top dollar for a player of his caliber. If he were to improve a little bit, then I agree that in a year or two he could be valuable to flip at the deadline for a nice prospect or two–however the number of teams that would acquire him would be limited, given his contract. If he were signed for only 2 years, then it would be different. And if, as is much more likely, his performance slips a little bit from his 2010-2012 level,… Read more »

MikeD

11 years ago

Reply to Andy

If his production slips, then all bets are off. (Not that Pete Rose has entered the room and we’re betting!) Yet trying to figure out what top dollar is right now might be more difficult than usual. It’s fluid driven by increased revenue from TV deals, the addition of the second Wild Card, coupled with the draft-and-build restrictions in the new CBA. I suppose I can add in the introduction of a new big-spending team in the form of the Dodgers as another driver, although I’d have to see how that plays out more than one season. Are they going… Read more »

11 years ago

Reply to MikeD

One other way the signing COULD work out for the Indians…signing Swisher will definitely put more fans in the seats which will give them more money to spend in future years. The fans are clearly excited about the Swisher signing for a variety of reasons: 1) he’s seen as a local boy come home (though his tie is really to Ohio State/Columbus, not Cleveland), 2) the team will likely win a few more games because of his presence, 3) changed perception of the ownership. For many years the Indians’ fans have felt that the owners (the Dolans) were cheapskates who… Read more »

Mike L

11 years ago

Swisher is a solid player. In the comments on Greinke, I noted that his last three years of WAR and OPS+ mirror Greike’s WAR and ERA+. But that’s not really high praise for either. Solid is not superstar. And the problem with free agent contracts is that they usually don’t happen until the player is in his early thirties, limiting his reasonable rate of return in later years. With an OPS+ of 118, it’s not going to take a lot of age-related decline to make Swisher just a bit above average. Big money teams might be able to absorb that,… Read more »

bstar

11 years ago

The market is paying at least $7 million/WAR for free agents. At $56 million, all Swisher has to do is produce 8 WAR over the next 4 years to earn his contract. He’s not getting paid to be a superstar, just to be an average outfielder. He produced about 10 WAR over the previous four seasons, so his contract seems reasonable enough to me.

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Andy

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

A year ago Fangraphs had it at $4.5MM per WAR. Where do you get the $7MM figure?

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to Andy

Yes, the model I was looking at was estimating $5 million/WAR for all position players on average, but right fielders grade out highest among all positions with left and center field next. This was written a few months ago by Matt Swartz of FGraphs & Hardball Times who estimated that RFs on average make closer to $8mil/per but I rounded down to seven for a more conservative look: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/why-first-basemen-get-paid-so-much/ These figures are for those players already signed, but the free agent market should be a little more pricey as the signing team usually has to make a slight overpay to… Read more »

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

Just to clarify…Swisher’s contract is 4 years guaranteed, but there’s a 5th year team option that can be made automatic if Swisher meets certain performance levels. At this point, no one knows what those performance levels are, but Swisher came out and said they would be easy to reach so the speculation is that they’re playing time based (as opposed to hitting a certain # of homeruns, for example). Also, there’s speculation that the Indians may move Swisher to 1st base either now or later in the contract. So that has to be considered as well in deciding if it’s… Read more »

Hartvig

11 years ago

While I don’t think that $56 M was a huge overpay for Swisher what Ed says makes a lot of sense. If they were a player or 2 away from contending I could see it but if they’re building for the future I don’t get it. It’s not like he would be a great bargaining chip at the trade deadline for a great prospect with that much money still owed. It’s kind of like management is telling the fans: We don’t think we have any chance of contending for the next 4 years but we don’t want you to think… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

“It’s kind of like management is telling the fans: We don’t think we have any chance of contending for the next 4 years but we don’t want you to think that we’ve thrown in the towel either.” Perfect summary, Hartvig, and one that I would endorse. It’s the reason I wish the Mets would have re-signed Dickey, even though I think they ended up with a good trade. Cleveland hasn’t topped .500 in 5 seasons, and 3 of those 5 saw 69 wins or less. They just traded their best offensive player of the past several years, mainly for prospects.… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

2013 Cleveland:

$6.5 Asdrubal
$6 Mark Reynolds
5.75 Ublaldo

Estimated Arb:

7.2 Chris Perez
5.7 Masterson

Nobody else over 3
__________________

Swisher is barely a downgrade to Choo, and certainly a plus in the clubhouse (it seems).

But I’ve got to question a front office that deliberately acquires Mark Reynolds and Drew Stubbs.

Estimated strikeouts from the 2013 Indian lineup:

100 Kipnis
200 Stubbs
100 Santana
130 Swisher
200 Reynolds
100 Cabrera
60 Brantley
? 1B
? DH

11 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Reynolds will probably play 1st. The 3rd baseman will be Lonnie Chisenall. So far in 374 PAs, he has 76 Ks. So he should fit right in!

Doug

11 years ago

What do you think about the staying power of switch-hitters? Do they last longer because they always have the platoon advantage? Or, do they not last as long because they’re not really as good as non-switch hitters with the same OPS+? That is, if they were as good they should have a better OPS+ because of that platoon advantage.

Editor

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

Since I asked the question, I’ll offer the answer that initial indicators look good for Swisher and the Indians. These are the 10 switch-hitters, including Swisher, with OPS+ in the 113-123 range through age 31 (min. 4000 PAs). Pretty decent group. Rk Player OPS+ PA From To Age R H HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Tm 1 Howard Johnson 123 4960 1982 1992 21-31 672 1092 204 672 576 891 .253 .340 .456 .796 DET-NYM 2 Victor Martinez 121 4224 2002 2010 23-31 509 1120 131 638 411 482 .300 .369 .469 .838 CLE-TOT-BOS 3 Roberto Alomar… Read more »

Editor

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

And, here’s what they did after age 31. One was already done and the rest were split half-and-half between decent contributors and not. Which half will Nick be in – my hunch is closer to the “decent contributors” group. Rk Player WAR/pos OPS+ From To Age G PA BA OBP SLG OPS Tm 1 Chili Davis 12.7 126 1992 1999 32-39 984 4026 .284 .382 .482 .864 MIN-CAL-KCR-NYY 2 Carlos Beltran 12.2 137 2009 2012 32-35 438 1829 .288 .371 .497 .868 NYM-TOT-STL 3 Roberto Alomar 11.4 108 2000 2004 32-36 657 2817 .291 .362 .435 .797 CLE-NYM-TOT 4 Frankie… Read more »

Hartvig

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

Of course the jury is still out on VMart- however unless he catches more than I’d expect him to it’s not likely he’s going to put up big WAR numbers- altho if he hits like he’s capable of and can catch 40 to 60 games without embarrassing himself I think he certainly has a chance to put up a couple more 3+ WAR seasons.

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

swisher does look a lot like hojo stat wise doesn’t he? Their swings aren’t terribly similar. Hojo had that ridiculous bat speed you can never fully appreciate without seeing in person. He was also more consistent from both sides of the plate. Swisher has a nice power swing from the left but there’s lots of length in it. From the right he slaps a lot of balls. Swisher’s power numbers from the right are nothing special where hojo was equally feared (though later in his career he struggled against lefties when that bat speed just evaporated). Hojo was pretty similar… Read more »

MikeD

11 years ago

Trying to project what a player will do as he ages is always interesting. I think with Swisher I wouldn’t be looking at players with similar OPS+’s at similar ages, but I would try to identify similar type hitters. Swisher for example is not a good match for a Clemente or a Munson. He’s a patient hitter who doesn’t expand the strikezone and attempts to get himself into a good hitter’s count, or more likely a fastball situation. Von Hayes feels like a good comp. Von Hayes’ career pretty much ended after age 32, but he’s only one data point.… Read more »

Edmundo

11 years ago

Note that Chili Davis played all of 40 innings in the field after age 30, 2 of which were as pitcher! I’m not sure how that figures in to any comparison other than he couldn’t get nicked up in the field.

11 years ago

Here are two interesting comps for Swisher: Pat Burrell and Paul Konerko. First, let’s look at Burrell: OPS+ ages 28-31: 128, 122, 128, 125 And now look at Swisher: OPS+ ages 28-31: 122, 129, 120, 126 An almost perfect match. Both are slow, strike-out a lot and draw a lot of walks. Both had an uncharacteristically poor season earlier in their careers (Burrell had an OPS+ of 90 at age 26; Swisher had an OPS+ of 93 at age 27). The Burrell comp is pretty depressing since he’s been hurt and/or played poorly post age 31. Now Konerko. Both Konerko… Read more »

Tom

11 years ago

With their payroll the Indians will always have a tough time competing, but that doesn’t mean they should close up shop. Orioles happen. Cardinals happen. Swisher improves their chances greatly over the nothing they had after trading Choo and he is a solid bet to earn his pay. And forget rebuilding, they’ve rebuilt with Kipnis, Brantley, Cabrera, Santana, Chisenhall, McAllister, etc. The only way you rebuild more than that is buy a tee ball team. They need to take a shot with the group they put together. They have to hope Francona can somehow get them to play a full… Read more »

Hartvig

11 years ago

Reply to Tom

To be completely fair, the idea that Tampa Bay has managed to remain competitive in the AL East for the past 5 years has surprised me (at least a little) almost every year. The Indians do have some talented young players and if a few things break their way maybe it wouldn’t be out of the question them to compete in the Central in a year or 2.

If Baltimore could do it this year then I’m not ruling anything out except for the Cubs winning the World Series.