Prodigal baserunners – players who seldom come home

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This post is about prodigal baserunners, those players who just don’t make it home very often. Even if they get on base fairly frequently.

After the jump, I’ll take a look at who these players are, and how infrequently they actually do score.

For this question, I’m only looking at runs scored after reaching base. Call that Times Driven In or TDI. Thus, our formula is:

TDI = Runs minus HRs

Here are the players since 1920 with seasons (min. 502 PAs) with a .350 OBP and a TDI of 35 or less.

Rk	Player	R	OBP	PA	Year	Age	Tm	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	TDI	BA	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Jose Oquendo	36	.350	518	1988	24	STL	125	10	1	7	46	52	29	.277	.350	.700	4563/98721
2	Nick Etten	37	.357	531	1942	28	PHI	121	21	3	8	41	67	29	.264	.375	.732	*3
3	Hank Severeid	37	.362	502	1924	33	SLB	133	23	2	4	48	36	33	.308	.398	.761	*2
4	Ray Knight	43	.355	567	1983	30	HOU	154	36	4	9	70	42	34	.304	.444	.798	*3
5	A.J. Ellis	44	.373	505	2012	31	LAD	114	20	1	13	52	65	31	.270	.414	.786	*2
6	Casey Kotchman	44	.378	563	2011	28	TBR	153	24	2	10	48	48	34	.306	.422	.800	*3
7	Mike Piazza	47	.362	528	2004	35	NYM	121	21	0	20	54	68	27	.266	.444	.806	*32/D
8	Tom Brunansky	47	.354	533	1992	31	BOS	122	31	3	15	74	66	32	.266	.445	.799	*93D
9	Mike Epstein	49	.367	502	1971	28	TOT	98	14	1	19	60	74	30	.237	.413	.780	*3
10	Rico Carty	50	.355	521	1977	37	CLE	129	23	1	15	80	56	35	.280	.432	.787	*D/3
11	George Scott	50	.355	530	1970	26	BOS	142	24	5	16	63	44	34	.296	.467	.821	*53
12	Brian McCann	51	.351	527	2011	27	ATL	126	19	0	24	71	57	27	.270	.466	.817	*2/D
13	Orlando Cepeda	51	.350	608	1973	35	BOS	159	25	0	20	86	50	31	.289	.444	.793	*D
14	Ken Singleton	52	.393	612	1983	36	BAL	140	21	3	18	84	99	34	.276	.436	.829	*D
15	Harmon Killebrew	53	.367	532	1972	36	MIN	100	13	2	26	74	94	27	.231	.450	.817	*3
16	Don Mincher	53	.366	514	1969	31	SEP	105	14	0	25	78	78	28	.246	.454	.821	*3
17	Frank Howard	53	.358	575	1965	28	WSA	149	22	6	21	84	55	34	.289	.477	.835	*7/9
18	Willie McCovey	54	.367	548	1977	39	SFG	134	21	0	28	86	67	26	.280	.500	.867	*3
19	Willie Stargell	54	.365	536	1967	27	PIT	125	18	6	20	73	67	34	.271	.465	.831	*73/9
20	Hideki Matsui	55	.361	558	2010	36	LAA	132	24	1	21	84	67	34	.274	.459	.820	*D7
21	Mike Epstein	55	.371	517	1970	27	WSA	110	15	3	20	56	73	35	.256	.444	.815	*3
22	Joe Adcock	55	.354	570	1960	32	MLN	153	21	4	25	91	46	30	.298	.500	.854	*3
23	Reggie Jackson	57	.359	514	1970	24	OAK	101	21	2	23	66	75	34	.237	.458	.817	*98
24	Frank Howard	60	.367	633	1971	34	WSA	153	25	2	26	83	77	34	.279	.474	.840	*73/9
25	Jack Cust	61	.408	507	2007	28	OAK	101	18	1	26	82	105	35	.256	.504	.912	D97
26	Harmon Killebrew	61	.386	624	1971	35	MIN	127	19	1	28	119	114	33	.254	.464	.850	*35
27	Hideki Matsui	62	.367	528	2009	35	NYY	125	21	1	28	90	64	34	.274	.509	.876	*D
28	Mo Vaughn	63	.358	592	1999	31	ANA	147	20	0	33	108	54	30	.281	.508	.866	*3D
29	Vic Wertz	65	.364	567	1956	31	CLE	127	22	0	32	106	75	33	.264	.509	.874	*3
30	Willie Horton	68	.352	578	1968	25	DET	146	20	2	36	85	49	32	.285	.543	.895	*7
31	Boog Powell	74	.399	506	1964	22	BAL	123	17	0	39	99	76	35	.290	.606	1.005	*7/3
32	Mark McGwire	86	.393	657	1997	33	TOT	148	27	0	58	123	101	28	.274	.646	1.039	*3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/15/2012.

Interesting, huh? Obviously, a healthy number from the late 60s and early 70s, but also some from other periods including each of the last four seasons. Predictably, many of these players toiled on weaker teams, but certainly not all. There are even a few WS champion teams here, one of them represented by the World Series MVP!

Another thing to note is that almost the whole list are name players, including no fewer than 4 HOFers, with Piazza likely to make it 5. Also, notice how many made this list twice – Howard, Killebrew, Epstein, Matsui, with the latter three all doing this in consecutive seasons.

So, that’s our better players, the ones with a .350 OBP. But, how low can we go for everybody else? Since Willie McCovey is the low man on the above list with a TDI of just 26, let’s see home many other seasons there are with a TDI of 25 or less.

Rk	Player	R	PA	Year	Age	Tm	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	TDI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Leo Cardenas	25	602	1972	33	CAL	123	11	2	6	42	35	19	.223	.272	.283	.555	*6
3	Mario Guerrero	27	546	1978	28	OAK	139	18	4	3	38	15	24	.275	.302	.345	.647	*6
21	Bob Boone	34	535	1980	32	PHI	110	23	1	9	55	48	25	.229	.299	.338	.637	*2
22	Steve Yeager	34	515	1975	26	LAD	103	16	1	12	54	40	22	.228	.298	.347	.646	*2
23	John Bateman	34	526	1971	30	MON	119	17	3	10	56	19	24	.242	.273	.350	.623	*2
69	Bengie Molina	38	517	2007	32	SFG	137	19	1	19	81	15	19	.276	.298	.433	.731	*2
135	John Buck	41	530	2011	30	FLA	106	15	1	16	57	54	25	.227	.316	.367	.683	*2
138	Bob Brenly	41	505	1985	31	SFG	97	16	1	19	56	57	22	.220	.311	.391	.702	*253
173	Lance Parrish	42	518	1987	31	PHI	114	21	0	17	67	47	25	.245	.313	.399	.712	*2
253	Charles Johnson	44	506	1998	26	TOT	100	18	0	19	58	45	25	.218	.289	.381	.670	*2
487	Shane Andrews	48	559	1998	26	MON	117	30	1	25	69	58	23	.238	.314	.455	.769	*5
595	Joe Pepitone	49	546	1969	28	NYY	124	16	3	27	70	30	22	.242	.284	.442	.726	*3
642	Alfonso Soriano	50	508	2011	35	CHC	116	27	1	26	88	27	24	.244	.289	.469	.759	*7/D
1011	Dick Stuart	53	586	1965	32	PHI	126	19	1	28	95	39	25	.234	.287	.429	.716	*3/5
1105	Steve Balboni	54	562	1986	29	KCR	117	25	1	29	88	43	25	.229	.286	.451	.738	*3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/17/2012.

There they are, led by Leo Cardenas and Bengie Molina, the only players since 1920 to fail to be driven in even 20 times in a full season. The ranks shown are for total runs scored, from lowest to highest. Heavily represented by catchers, and nobody with an OBP above 0.316. You get the picture. Just the one WS champion here, Bob Boone on the 1980 Phillies.

Finally, switching to relative metrics, here are the players least likely to be driven in, by decade. The metric is:

TDI% = (R – HR) / (TOB – HR)

TOB denotes Times on Base. Thus, TDI% = Times Driven In as a percentage of Times on Base.

Here is the table. Players shown have the 20 lowest % of times driven in (TDI%) for each decade since the 1920s. Type the decade start (e.g. 1950) in the Search box to see each decade.

[table id=83 /]

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John Autin

12 years ago

List 1 is virtually all older and/or notoriously slow players, with two notable exceptions: Jose Oquendo ’88, and Reggie Jackson ’70. Oquendo ’88 batted 6th and 7th on a Cardinals team that ranked next-to-last in scoring, and last by miles in HRs and SLG. He also had no extra-base power (.350 SLG, .073 ISO) and no SB prowess (4 for 10). And in that year, he did poorly at taking an extra base on teammates’ hits. As for Reggie ’70 — For one thing, he took himself out with a league-high 17 CS. He had his best OBP while batting… Read more »

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Led by Wes Ferrell the #9 hitters on the 1931 Indians out-slugged the #8 hitters by .348 to .345. Pitchers on that team always batted 9th.

JW Lewis

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

At least Jose has that cool number range in the “Pos” box, all 9 positions represented.

Isn’t there some way it could just read “All” ? 😉

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

They had 6 homers from pitchers out of the 9 hole.
And 7 from position players, including two from Reggie.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_team.cgi?full=1&params=lineu|Batting%209th|OAK|1970|bat|AB|

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan accounted for a 1/4 of those 8 hole PA’s
And Duncan slugged .471

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_team.cgi?full=1&params=lineu|Batting%208th|OAK|1970|bat|AB|

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

On the 1957 KC A’s the #9 hitters out-slugged the #8 hitters by .289 to .271. For the first 56 games of the year their pitchers batted in the #8 position. Infielders Joe DeMaestri, Billy Hunter and Milt Graff were so bad they were relegated to the #9 position. By eye-balling it looks to me that if those three had hit in the #8 hole all season then the #8 hitters would have out-slugged the #9 hitters.

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

DeMaestri actually made the all-star team in ’57 which says a lot. Also pitcher Mickey McDermott had an .872 OPS in 58 PAs. That was higher than any of the position players on the As. In fact, McDermott was often used as a pinch hitter that year.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Not sure exactly what this means, but DeMaestri is the only player with a 3000+ career PAs, a career OPS under 0.600, but a slugging percentage 35%+ higher than his batting average.

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Doug – Of the 34 players who meet the first two conditions, DeMaestri has the highest career slugging percentage (.325) so it kind of makes sense that he would be the only player to meet the 3rd condition.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

At first I was surprised to not see Ernie “The Schnozz” Lombardi on the first list, as he was legendary as one of the slowest MLB runners ever. Then, I saw the requirement of 502 PA, which Lombardi met only one season.

HOWEVER – up till the mid-50s, the PA requirement for the batting title was only 400 PA. Using this standard, along with a .350+ OBA and a TDI of 35 or less, he qualifies in 1932, 1936, and 1945.

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Another player that I thought I might see on the first list and was amazed that I did not see in the decade breakdowns was the immortal and notoriously slow afoot Willie Mays Aikens. What made it doubly surprising was that his replacement, Steve Balboni, was number 2 on the list for the 80’s. While it’s true that Balboni is very well known for doing very little except hitting home runs and was terrible at getting on base and Aikens was a more well rounded hitter it’s still more than a little surprising. They were both used is much the… Read more »

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

Aikens didn’t make the decade lists because he had less than 3000 PAs in his career. For his career, his TDI% was 20.7%, so he definitely would have been near the top of the decade list with a few more PAs (Aikens had 2856 for his career, and 2308 in the 1980s). His 33 TDI in 1982 would have made list #1 with a few more points on his 0.345 OBP. Also, his 26 TDI in 1983 was just outside the cutoff for list #2 (although Aikens missed the PA requirement for that season). In 1984, Aikens had just 10… Read more »

Doug

12 years ago

Lawrence @ 3,

Lombardi ranked 2nd lowest for the decade of the 1930s in TDI percent.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Doug,

Yes, I saw “The Schnozz” on the 1930s decade list, but I was referring to the first list, of seasonal TDI less than 35.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Lombardi had 502 PA just once, in his MVP season in 1938. His TDI that year was 41.

In his 8 seasons over 400 PA, Lombardi had TDI totals ranging from 23 (twice) to a high of 36.

Doug

12 years ago

JA @ 1,

Good thoughts about RJ and Oquendo.

My question: what was a 47 HR hitter doing hitting anywhere but 3rd or 4th (or maybe 5th)?

On a similar vein, curious that two Yankee mainstays (and HOFers) make the list for worst TDI for the 1930s. Tough to figure that one.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Part of the reason for low run totals for Dickey and Lazzeri lies in the fact that they both hit mainly in the lower part of the batting order, the overwhelming majority of their PA came in the fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth spots. Not many good hitters left to drive them home.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Yes, but you could say the same of any team. It’s just curious to me that the highest scoring team of the decade would have its bottom-of-the-order guys here.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Re: Bill Dickey and the Yankees, it’s not just the bottom of the order that would depress his TDI. They often had crappy hitters at the #1 and/or #2 slots, as well. Consider 1941: The ’41 Yanks were #2 in the AL with 5.32 R/G. Dickey, hitting 6th and 7th all year (at the tail end of his career), had a .371 OBP but scored just 35 Runs in 397 PAs. Their #8 hitters were OK for that era, but they had no power — just 4 HRs, 21 doubles. Then the pitcher, and then the execrable leadoff men: .242… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Take the 1927 Yankees — one of the greatest offensive teams ever at 6.30 R/G. Their #1-2-3-4 hitters scored 143, 138, 163 and 149 Runs. Their #5-6 hitters, collectively the league’s best, dropped off to 93 and 92 Runs. But the #7 spot — even with a surprisingly good #8 behind them (and a fantastic leadoff spot) — scored just 66 Runs. That’s an extreme case, but the general shape is typical of a lineup with a pitcher hitting 9th, especially in an era of hierarchical orders. In the 1927 AL, cleanup men scored 837 runs (the top 4 spots… Read more »

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

If you randomly select a given year for any team or any league and go to the splits for Batting Order Position the trend is the same. The top four batters score the most runs, both on an absolute basis and a percentage basis, and then there is a rapid drop-off for the rest of the batting order whether it’s the 1968 ML or the 1930 ML or it’s the 1927 Yankees or the 1935 Braves.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

I guess that’s my original point in comment #9, when I said that this would be true of just about every team. Thus, it struck me as odd that two Yankees would show up in the lowest 20, given that the Yankees in that decade scored far more runs than anybody else (15% more than Detroit, who were 2nd; 30% more than median). Of course, those extra runs the Yankees scored (including by their bottom hitters) means those bottom hitters are getting more PAs than bottom hitters on other teams, so that could also be part of the answer. Incidentally,… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

My jaw dropped when I saw Leo Cardenas’ 1972 runs scored and TDI totals. What was going on that year with him? First, the perspective: Not only is Leo the only player in history with 600+ PA and 25 runs scored or less, there is no one in history with 500+ PA and 25 runs or less either. You have to go back to 1917 to find Chuck Ward, who scored 25 runs for the Pirates in 483 PA. Cardenas batted sixth or seventh for the Angels that year but also saw time in the second and third spots in… Read more »

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Those Angel teams really scuffled. They had zero batters with .400 SLG in 400+ PAs in 1966, 1969, 1971 and 1976 (they had one such batter in 1968, 1972 and 1975). In the rest of MLB in that 11-year period (1966-76), there were only 7 other such seasons without a .400 SLG/400 PA batter.

From 1977 to 2009, outside of strike seasons, there were only two such years, the 1985 Pirates and 1992 Angels. But, there have been 4 such seasons since 2010, most recently by the 2012 Astros.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Amazing that the Angels were 75-80 in 1972. Doug, do you know what was up with the game totals in 1972? I can’t remember what happened. Everybody in MLB that year played 153-156 games instead of 162. A work stoppage I was unaware of? It looks to me like they started the season a week or ten days late.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

A work stoppage. The first Marvin Miller moment. They struck over pension contributions, and the union won some concessions after the cancellation of 86 games.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Mike L

RIP Marvin Miller. Appreciate the response, Mike.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

And because the ’72 schedule did not get rebalanced, my Tigers were able to cop the division flag by half a game over Boston.

Detroit went into a final 3-game set with the BoSox trailing by a half-game, but took the first 2 behind Lolich & Fryman (another all-time great stretch-drive pick-ups) to clinch the title.

In his last 10 games that year, Al Kaline went 21-41 with 4 HRs and a 1.401 OPS, and he had the go-ahead hit in the 7th inning of the clincher, off El Tiante.

Ah, memories…

Jason Z

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Didn’t see your response.

Your point about the schedule not
being rebalanced made me wonder
if the split season format of 1981,
was a direct response to the 72 AL East
result.

Jason Z

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

A look at the old AL East for that season
reveals that Detroit won the division at
86-70.

Boston finished second at 85-70.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

bstar,

Here’s a couple more seasons of note. Only other times scoring 30 or fewer runs in 502 PAs, both with SLG lower than OBP.

Player	HR	R	PA	Year	Age	Tm	H	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
Fred Kendall	2	30	505	1976	27	SDP	112	39	36	42	.246	.302	.296	.598	*2
Earl Sheely	1	30	586	1931	38	BSN	147	77	34	21	.273	.319	.314	.633	*3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/28/2012.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Cardenas ’72 had the 5th-worst rate of Runs per PA of any modern player with 100+ games, and had by far the most games and PAs of anyone in the neighborhood.

Rate-wise, Bill Bergen stands alone (of course). But Clay Dalrymple, Phillies catcher of the ’60s, owns two of those bottom 5 rates.

Position-wise, Cardenas is the only one of those bottom 5 who was not a catcher.

12 years ago

I was surprised Paul Konerko didn’t make the first list, although he does sneak into the 2000s table. Konerko has 38 and 40 TDI the last two seasons.

David

12 years ago

The TDI formula here would count a run where batter hit safely and scored on an error in the same at-bat, no? Possibly some of these TDI totals could be less accounting for such. Or just rename TDI to more accurately reflect the calculation like Times Scoring Without Homering.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to David

You’re right, David. A more correct name would be as you have indicated.

Also, TOB does not include times reaching base on a fielder’s choice. But, it does include (of course) times reaching base and then being erased on a fielder’s choice. So, it’s not completely exact but it’s probably not far off the true number.

Greg

12 years ago

Some say that late at night, when the stadium is empty and everyone has gone home, Wes and Tommy Helms roam the basepaths endlessly, waiting for someone to come break their family’s curse.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Interesting that Ted Williams appears on a list of under-performers.

Doug

12 years ago

Richard, it was those 1950s Red Sox teams who were the under-performers. Williams inclusion is similar to Wally Berger in the 1930s for the lowly Braves. They make the list mostly because they get on base so much.

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

In a five year period (’54-’58), Ted Williams had four seasons in which he had 502+ PAs, an OPS greater than 1.000, and fewer than 100 RBIs and runs scored. Pretty remarkable considering there are only 20 such seasons in the entire history of baseball (Tris Speaker is the only other player with multiple such seasons).