The playoffs begin … And poof, the first round is over

Home-field advantage? What home-field advantage?

Cardinals 6, @Braves 3: Too many things happened in this game for me to parse. I have nothing against the defending champs, but I’m sad that Atlanta’s 94-win season (as many as 2 of the 6 division winners) — as well as Chipper‘s splendid career — ended so raggedly.

St. Louis won their 5th straight winner-take-all postseason game: 2012 WC, 2011 WS and LDS, 2006 LCS (aargh!), 2004 LCS.
Kyle Lohse got his first postseason win in 5 starts … but he kept up his streak of allowing more than a hit per inning, and he still hasn’t finished a 6th inning.
Four STL relievers went less than inning. Tony LaRussa didn’t pull that off with the Cards until his 11th year and 68th postseason game; Mike Matheny nailed it right out of the gate.
I have a dream … that someday, a manager will have the courage to bring in his strikeout-record-setting relief ace with a man on 3rd and 1 out in the 7th, down by 2 runs in a win-or-go-home game. I may not get there with you….

Orioles 5, @Rangers 1: Baltimore won their first winner-take-all game since the dawn of time. There were just 3 winner-take-all games in club history: 1979 WS, 1973 LCS, 1971 WS.

Texas had one or more baserunners in 7 innings. The runners and the results:

Walk, Single — DP (run scored).
Single — K, K.
Error — DP. Single — K.
Single, Single — K, GB.
Single — DP.
Single+Error — GB, K.
Single — GB, Walk, Single, FB.

One thing Joe Saunders does well is suppress the running game. He allowed only 4 SB in 10 tries during the season. Rangers runners Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus and Craig Gentry combined for 5 steal opportunities in the first 5 innings of a close game, but no attempts. (There may have been a hit-and-run in the 1st; I, er, “wasn’t watching” that play.)

Josh Hamilton had a farewell(?) to forget: 0 for 4 with a DP (2 on, no outs), two Ks (each ending an inning with a man aboard) and a comebacker.

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MikeD

12 years ago

I have to say, I kind of enjoyed one-and-done Friday.

Jacob

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

I found it riveting, too, although I’m upset the Cardinals are sneaking in… Again! (Tigers fan – still mad about ’06).

But there’s hope. St Louis will now have to start their #2 against the Nats’ #1. Let’s see if the WC teams suffer the strategic consequences of the new format.

Insert Name Here

12 years ago

Reply to Jacob

Not to burst your bubble, but of course the Nats do not have Strasburg, so it’s really the Nats’ #2.

Gordon

12 years ago

Reply to Insert Name Here

You did burst my bubble. But I appreciate your honesty, INH.

Fireworks

12 years ago

Reply to Insert Name Here

Strasburg is a name ace. Not sure he is really the ace yet. When he throws a pitch in the eighth inning, lemme know.

And the Cards got past the one-game playoff without pitching either of the two guys they’d prefer to have pitch the most important game of the season–Carpenter or Wainwright.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Insert Name Here

Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman both had better years than Strasburg,so I am not sure how Strasburg is the Nats #1.

Dan Franzen

12 years ago

Reply to Jacob

Well, they’ll be at home and will have had the day off, and if they had won the WC under the old format they would have had to play the #1 division winner on the road almost right after the season ended, so this is actually better for the WC team.

Still don’t know why they scheduled the WC winner to be at home for the DCS. Now it seems more like you’re punishing the #1-overall team by putting them on the road to start a best of five.

Insert Name Here

12 years ago

Reply to Dan Franzen

As I understand, the league chose the 2-3 schedule for this year only because they scheduled the season before deciding to add the 2nd Wild Card; they made room for the WC playoff game by taking away an off day in the LDS. Next year they should, hopefully, be back to 2-2-1. 2-2-1 just makes more sense.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Dan Franzen

Nats will have home field advantage ONLY if the series goes to game 5. What are the odds? Gotta be less than 50% that it goes 5. Advantage, 88-win Cardinals.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

This system is idiotic. I’m glad to see the Orioles in there (great story) but they should have been gone, as should the Cardinals. And giving what amounts to a home field advantage to the lesser teams, the wild card teams, is appalling. In MLB’s zeal for revenue, they devalue the legitimacy of their product.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Whoa, the odds of an LDS going to game 5 is FAR less than 50%. Of the 68 LDS played since its inception in 1995, only 18 have managed to go to a game 5. So Washington has a 26.5% chance of actually realizing what’s supposed to be their home-field advantage. As always, thanks Bud.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

26.5% for the Yankees seeing a game 5 too, sorry Mike L. I’ve got my NL blinders on.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

b, I’m no fan of this 2-3 format; if they had to cut out a trip, I’d have made it 1-4. But if you’re going to use the actual number of LDS’s to predict the odds of one going to 5 games, then let’s also talk about the fact that the home-field advantage in the LDS to date has been historically small. Reiterating the numbers I ran @8, here’s the home-team record since the LDS began in 1995: – Total, .540 (298-254) – LDS, .523 (137-125) (or .519 counting these 2 WC games) – LCS, .536 (105-91) – WS, .609… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

What would give them a right to complain? Huh?

Down 0-1 with the game played in the inferior team’s park?

Down 0-2 with nary a home game played?

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Imagine the mental burden of having to overcome an 0-2 deficit when you’re supposed to be the team with the home field advantage.

All the road team has done is “held serve”, or won the games they’re supposed to (if MLB actually worked that way). But instead of those wins coming in games 3 and 4, they’ve come in games 1 and 2, and now the better team has to unfairly overcome a 2-game deficit.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

In fact, the normal 2-2-1 format could have been used without extending the schedule, by doing things this way. Day 1 – Wild Cards and LDS game #1 for 2-3 seeds Day 2 – LDS game #1 for 1 seed, and game #2 for 2-3 seeds … Working it this way (i.e. no travel day between wild card and LDS), you still end up finishing the LDS exactly the same time as you would in the current scheduling. The other advantage is you only have 2 games on Day 3 (i.e. Sunday) competing for attention with the NFL, rather than… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Actually, Doug, it looks like the American League played 2-3 but the National League played 2-2-1, at least in the early 80s.

The biggest injustice of all, though, was the treatment given to the NL-best ’84 Cubs. They had the best record in the league but were only given 2 out of 5 home games due to the lack of night-time baseball in Wrigley. The Cubs won the first two games at home, then lost the next three to the Padres in San Diego.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/1984_NLCS.shtml

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Re: the 2-3 format and the notion that the deserving team is deprived of home-field advantage: (1) In 8 LDS, the wild-card team had a better record than their opponent, but of course did not get home-field advantage. The wild card won 4 of those series. The games record in those 8 series was 19-12 in favor of the wild card. 2010 — NYY (95 wins, WC) swept MIN (94) 2007 — COL (90 wins, WC) swept PHI (89) 2004 — BOS (98 wins, WC) swept LAA (92) 2001 — STL (93 wins, WC) lost 2-3 to ARI (92) (teams… Read more »

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

b @21 — “Imagine the mental burden of having to overcome an 0-2 deficit when you’re supposed to be the team with the home field advantage.”

This feels like bending over backwards to feel affronted. If you’re the better team, you’re not “supposed” to lose those 2 games.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

JA, LDS discussion pages tonight?

oneblankspace

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Home field alternated by division (and by league in the World Series): in 1983, AL West / NL East had home field (games 3-5) ; in 1984, NL West / AL East had home field — the Cubs did not lose (the right to host) any home games in 1984. AL teams had home field in the World Series in odd years, NL in even years; the ’84 Cu** would have had problems in the World Series. This was minimized to some extent by using DH everywhere in even years and nowhere in odd years (as well as any other… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Jacob

It’s probably a little easier for me to enjoy since I’m not a fan of any of the four teams. The idea of having a season decided on one game seems a bit crazy, yet the Rangers and the Orioles would have been playing for just that under the old system. But for one team, the last team standing, season always comes down to a loss! Anyway, I can see becoming a fan of the one-and-done if they keep it up as a yearly thing. My gut tells me one day they’ll figure out how to make it a three-game… Read more »

Nash Bruce

12 years ago

I’d still have reservations about voting Craig Kimbrel for the CYA, but this is staggering to consider: he struck out more batters in his 62 2/3rd innings than ANY Minnesota Twins pitcher managed over the 2012 season.

Damn right I bring him in, in the 7th inning. Isn’t that what a ‘fireman’ does, put out fires?

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

FWIW, here’s the home-team record since the LDS began in 1995:

– Total, .540 (298-254)
– LDS, .523 (137-125) (or .519 counting these 2 WC games)
– LCS, .536 (105-91)
– WS, .609 (56-36)

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Last night was the first homerless postseason game in Rangers Ballpark. There have been 52 HRs in 21 postseason games there, 2.5 HRs per game — the same as the all-time regular-season average there.

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

“52 HRs” including those by noted power threats Andres Torres and Edgar Renteria.

Editor

Doug

12 years ago

John’s remark on Wednesday’s games concerning bringing in Holland with men aboard proved prescient. Not a role that Holland has excelled in, and one he again struggled with.

Also, curious that Washington would give up his DH so readily. If he wanted Soto to catch and wants Napoli’s bat in the lineup, Napoli should have been playing first with Young at DH. It’s not like he’s losing anything defensively if he does that.

Editor

Doug

12 years ago

Re: “I have a dream … that someday, a manager will have the courage to bring in his strikeout-record-setting relief ace with a man on 3rd and 1 out in the 7th, down by 2 runs in a win-or-go-home game. “ Something close to this happened in game 7 of the 2003 NLCS. Cubs were trailing 6-5 in the 6th inning with runners on the corners and 2 out, when Cubs starter Kerry Wood was relieved by Kyle Farnsworth. Farnsworth wasn’t the Cubs closer (0 saves that year), but he had 77 appearances with 10.8 K/9, so he was definitely… Read more »

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Good find, Doug. Here’s one I like, though not men on the corners: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK198810190.shtml 1988 World Series, Game 4, LA leads the series 2-1 and leads the game 4-3, with 2 outs in the 8th after Tim Belcher gave up an RBI double. Lasords brings in closer Jay Howell — the NL leader in SO/9 (50+ IP) — to face Jose Canseco (followed by Parker and McGwire). Howell gets out of it and goes on to finish the game, getting Canseco (K) and Parker (foul pop) in the 9th with the tying run on first. Howell, by the way, had… Read more »

Fireworks

12 years ago

I don’t like the way home field is set up for this season, but it is just this season. I’ll try to be reasonable about it if my Yanks get knocked out, especially since my feeling has always been that the two-game difference in LD- and LC/W- Series is huge; Yankees are about .500 in the LDS in the wild card era, but have a pretty damn good winning percentage after they get through that. Of course, an astute fellow might note that being good enough to make it to the postseason doesn’t mean your team isn’t without flaws, and… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Fireworks

That was entertaining, Fireworks, and I too saw the beauty in the math of your suggested schedule. Furthermore, you could with that schedule do as the NFL does: rotate what division you play in interleague matchups every year. One year you play the AL East in interleague, then the AL Central the next year, etc. Every team plays every other team in baseball every 3 years, similar to 4 years in the NFL. It would give the fans a chance to see every player in MLB every three years.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to Fireworks

Nice touch, fireworks. I would have added “first manager to calculate WAR for all of the playoff teams entire rosters, in his head”
I’ll bet Bud might even be able to sell the networks on it….

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Top 12 Regular Season Winning Percentages Over Past 11 Seasons, 2002-2012 (Post-Series Won During That Period, In Parens)
Yankees .601 (7 post-season series won)
Red Sox .562 (8)
Angels .560 (5)
Cardinals .555 (11)
Braves .552 (0)
Phillies .550 (6)
A’s .531 (1)
Giants .528 (5)
Dodgers .527 (2)
Twins .523 (1)
White Sox .522 (3)
Rangers .511(4)

Cards, A’s, Giants, Yankees all may still add to their number in parens.

The 12 teams above have won 53 of the 72 post-series played from 2002 through yesterday (about 74%).

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Braves. (0).

What time is it? Too early for beer-thirty?

Jason Z

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

It is always beer-thirty somewhere in the world.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Jason Z

Excellent point, Jason. Engage!

oneblankspace

12 years ago

Back in 1983, Sox fans made a big deal about how they were the first AL team to win game 1 of a playoff series against Baltimore. Through the Wild Card game, the O’s are 10-2 in game 1 against AL teams. Including the World Series (and the ’44 Browns), they are 16-3 overall in game 1. The losses were against the ’83 White Sox, the ’83 Phillies, and the ’96 Yankees.