Sunday game notes (running-out-of-time edition)

Now with all a moderate amount of new material!

Astros 7, @Brewers 0Jordan Lyles is the first since 2009 to throw a shutout before his 22nd birthday, the first pitcher since 2010 to homer in his shutout, and the first since 1968 to combine those feats.

  • Mike Fiers is the 10th in searchable history (and 2nd this year) to fan 10+ while suffering 4+ HRs. (By the way, Astros hitters fanned 13 times in all, but Lyles made contact in each of his 4 trips.)
  • Houston has hit 4+ HRs just three times this year — two of them in this series.

@Cards 10, Nats 4:

  • Carlos Beltran‘s 2 HRs gave him 334, 3 shy of Mark Teixeira for #6 on the switch-hitters list. Only MickeyEddie and the Chipper have reached 400.
  • Lance Lynn joined the Dean BrothersKitten HaddixErnie BroglioJohnny Beazley and Bill Steele as Cardinals with 18+ wins in their 2nd season. (Number of times they reached that mark thereafter: Dizzy Dean 4, Broglio and Haddix 1, the others none.)
  • Helluva week for the Cards’ rookie SS Pete Kozma: 12 for 24, his first 2 HRs, 3 doubles, 11 RBI. He’s a career .236 hitter in 6 minor-league seasons.
  • The Nats and Yanks are the only teams this year with 15+ HRs from all 4 regular infielders. Cincinnati can join with 1 more from Votto.
  • The 2012 Nats finish at 48-33 on the road, the best in either league and 2 wins more than any prior edition. Only one of the four previous 90-win teams in club history had a winning road record: the ’87 Expos went 43-38 (but were outscored). The others had huge home/road win splits: 56/39 in ’79, 55/39 in ’93, 51/39 in ’80.
  • Bryce Harper in September: .330/1.049, 7 HRs, 26 Runs in 28 games. Four more runs would give him 101 and set a new teenage record.

@A’s 5, M’s 2: The 137 OPS+ by Yoenis Cespedes would be the highest qualifying freshman mark since Albert 2001, and the 29th first-year mark of 130+.

  • Tommy Milone is the first starter since 2010 to allow 9+ hits in less than 5 IP and escape with 2 runs or less. The last to do it: one Kris Medlen.
  • Seattle had 5 hits with men in scoring position, but just 2 of those produced a run. Among their threats that fizzled: leadoff double in the 1st; 2 on with 1 out in the 2nd (on the subsequent hit, Justin Smoak was thrown out at home despite a bobble in RF; Smoak has the 3rd-worst rate of extra bases taken among all regulars); 1-out triple in the 5th; double & single to start the 7th (3 straight Ks). And in the middle of their lone scoring inning, Jesus Montero rolled into a 6-4-3 DP; he’s 2 for 31 with men on 1st & 2nd, and .215 with RISP over all.
  • Bob Melvin on the bullpen phone: “Gimme me the righty with the .165 batting average!
Rk Player BA IP G H R ER BB SO HR BF AB 2B 3B OBP SLG OPS OPS+
6 Grant Balfour .165 71.2 72 41 21 21 28 66 4 280 248 10 1 .250 .262 .512 44
7 Ryan Cook .165 70.1 68 40 18 17 27 77 4 277 242 7 2 .259 .260 .519 45
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used / Generated 10/1/2012.

Yankees 9, @Blue Jays 6: New York’s late rally meant chiefly one thing: Andy Hawkins remains the last Bronxite with 30 decisions in a season (1989).

@Braves 6, Mets 2: Live-ball seasons with 10+ starts and a WHIP of 0.92 or less, sorted chronologically:

Rk Player Year ▴ GS WHIP Age Tm G CG SHO GF W L W-L% IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+
1 Sandy Koufax 1963 40 0.875 27 LAD 40 20 11 0 25 5 .833 311.0 214 68 65 58 306 1.88 159
2 Sandy Koufax 1965 41 0.855 29 LAD 43 27 8 2 26 8 .765 335.2 216 90 76 71 382 2.04 160
3 Juan Marichal 1965 37 0.914 27 SFG 39 24 10 2 22 13 .629 295.1 224 78 70 46 240 2.13 169
4 Juan Marichal 1966 36 0.859 28 SFG 37 25 4 1 25 6 .806 307.1 228 88 76 36 222 2.23 167
5 Luis Tiant 1968 32 0.871 27 CLE 34 19 9 0 21 9 .700 258.1 152 53 46 73 264 1.60 186
6 Dave McNally 1968 35 0.842 25 BAL 35 18 5 0 22 10 .688 273.0 175 67 59 55 202 1.95 150
7 Denny McLain 1968 41 0.905 24 DET 41 28 6 0 31 6 .838 336.0 241 86 73 63 280 1.96 154
8 Bob Gibson 1968 34 0.853 32 STL 34 28 13 0 22 9 .710 304.2 198 49 38 62 268 1.12 258
9 Catfish Hunter 1972 37 0.914 26 OAK 38 16 5 1 21 7 .750 295.1 200 74 67 70 191 2.04 140
10 Roger Nelson 1972 19 0.871 28 KCR 34 10 6 9 11 6 .647 173.1 120 41 40 31 120 2.08 145
11 Don Sutton 1972 33 0.913 27 LAD 33 18 9 0 19 9 .679 272.2 186 78 63 63 207 2.08 162
12 Greg Maddux 1994 25 0.896 28 ATL 25 10 3 0 16 6 .727 202.0 150 44 35 31 156 1.56 271
13 Greg Maddux 1995 28 0.811 29 ATL 28 10 3 0 19 2 .905 209.2 147 39 38 23 181 1.63 260
14 Pedro Martinez 2000 29 0.737 28 BOS 29 7 4 0 18 6 .750 217.0 128 44 42 32 284 1.74 291
15 Randy Johnson 2004 35 0.900 40 ARI 35 4 2 0 16 14 .533 245.2 177 88 71 44 290 2.60 176
16 Justin Verlander 2011 34 0.920 28 DET 34 4 2 0 24 5 .828 251.0 174 73 67 57 250 2.40 172
17 Kris Medlen 2012 12 0.913 26 ATL 50 2 1 7 10 1 .909 138.0 103 26 24 23 120 1.57 257
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used / Generated 10/1/2012.

Incidentally, Medlen performed much better in the more challenging SP role, with a 0.97 ERA and 0.80 WHIP, 8.4 SO/BB, &c., &c.

@Indians 15, Royals 3: Luke Hochevar‘s baseball future is like an overcooked steak — very nontender. Few have ever pitched so poorly for so long — a career 78 ERA+ in 771 IP over 5 full season — and none did it with just one organization. Of this year’s 86 qualifiers, Hochevar is next-to-last with a 72 ERA+. (But at least he was better than Lincecum.)

@Rangers 8, Angels 6: With 994 extra-base hits, Albert has 42 more than anyone else in his first 13 seasons … even though he’s only played 12 years. (For a straight 12-year comparison, Albert leads Gehrig by 113.)

____________________

Original post:

The Yanks and O’s both won and secured a playoff spot. The Rangers split with Anaheim; already in the tourney, they need one win in their final set at Oakland to lock up the West. The Rays and Angels now are Rangers rooters; they can only force a wild-card tie with Oakland by sweeping their own finales (TB-Baltimore, LAA @ Seattle) while the A’s fall flat at home. (Should that all happen, Jayson Stark’s head may explode.) New York hosts reeling Boston, who’ve lost 9 of 10. Detroit’s magic number is 1.

The Reds tied Washington for best record in the NL; Cincy visits St. Louis, whose magic number fell to 2, while the Nats host Philly. Milwaukee was rubbed out by Houston, while the Dodgers stayed the course with their 5th straight win and now host San Francisco, who (if I have my tiebreakers right) have nothing left to play for; the Giants trail the Nats and Reds by 3 for the best record, and have losing marks against both.

On to a very few game notes:

@Rangers 8, Angels 7 (2nd): Trailing 6-4 after Bad Ervin‘s unshocking implosion, knowing that a loss would drop them to the brink of elimination, Mike Scioscia tried to squeeze a few more outs from Jerome Williams in the 5th. But Mike Napoli‘s double tacked on two for Texas — he’d already homered twice in the game, and was 5 for 11 with a 1.720 OPS against Williams — so that Howie Kendrick‘s 3-run HR in the 7th left them a biscuit shy, and thus it would end.

  • Koji Uehara fanned the side in the 8th, giving him 41 Ks and just 3 walks in 33.2 IP this year, as well as a 1.87 ERA and 0.65 WHIP. Uehara is homer-prone, but everything else about his relief record is phenomenal: In 142.2 relief innings, he’s allowed 94 hits and 17 walks, with 181 strikeouts. His career SO/BB ratio of 7.90 (including his 12 starts) is by far the best in MLB history with 200+ IP; #2 is Sergio Romo at 5.73 SO/BB.
  • Derek Holland (6.2 IP, 12 H, 7 ER) notched this year’s 3rd winning start with 12+ hits (2 in Arlington, 1 in Denver), and tied for the 2nd-worst winning Game Score of 25 (the 23 and the other 25 were both in Denver).
  • Santana had been splendid in his last 7 starts, with a 2.49 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. But pitching in Arlington just ain’t his bag — 90.1 IP, 27 HRs(!) and a 7.47 ERA.
  • With the batting crown very much in play, Mike Trout went 0-3 in the nightcap, falling to .321. Cabrera still leads at .325, with Mauer at .323, Beltre at .319.

Tigers 2, @Twins 1: Detroit went 0 for 7 with RISP and gave Liam Hendriks his first-ever scoreless outing. But there’s more than one way to skin a cat, or to flip a deficit, or to redeem yourself for a GDP after an IBB to Miggy — or to clinch a share of first place.

  • Another turning point: Scoreless in the 5th, Alexi Casilla Cobbed his way to 3rd with 1 away (bunt, steal, steal), but Anibal Sanchez whiffed Pedro Florimon, then retired Denard Span on a grounder.
  • Looks like a routine save in the box score, but we know our Papa too well to fall for that.
  • Detroit just barely won the season series from the last-place Twins, 10-8. On to KC, whom they’ve handled at an 11-4 clip.

Rays 6, @White Sox 2: A whiter shade of Pale Hose have swung the bats these last 2 weeks. Since rallying to beat Detroit, 5-4, on 9/17, the Sox have gone 3-10, averaging 2.6 runs and just over 7 hits. Today they were no match for David Price, now the first 20-game winner in Tampa history and most likely their first ERA champ as well.

  • The Rays were nevertheless eliminated from the division race, and trail Oakland by 3 with 3 remaining.
  • Price, the AL leader in Quality Start percentage, tied Justin Verlander with his 25th QS in just 31 outings, and beat Chicago for just the 2nd time in 6 career tries.
  • The ChiSox close in Cleveland, where they’re 4-2 this year; they last swept there in 2010.
  • In this 3-10 stretch, Kevin Youkilis is 12 for 52, 1 walk, 1 RBI, 3 Runs; Paul Konerko is 8 for 42, 3 RBI, 3 Runs; Adam Dunn is 5 for 46, 4 RBI (all in one game), 4 Runs; and the middle infield has sunk further into its black hole (Gordon Beckham 6 for 35, 2 RBI, 2 Runs, Alexei Ramirez 10 for 45, 1 walk, 3 RBI, 1 Run). It’s been a group effort.

 

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Doug
Editor
12 years ago

Nick Swisher plus Texeira, Soriano, Pujols, Ortiz, Konerko and Miggy are the only players with 20+ HR every season since 2005. If Swisher has another 20 HR year next season, he joins an even more exclusive group: Texeira, Pujols, Berkman, Chipper, Piazza, McGriff, Ripken, Strawberry, Eddie Murray, Dick Allen, Frank Robinson, Colavito, Mathews, Mays, Kiner, Splinter, Joe D, and Bob Johnson – players with 20+ HR seasons every year for the first 9 years of a career (if you’re wondering, I’m starting the count with each player’s rookie season and omitting partial years lost to military service).

Dave
Dave
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Wow…the first part of your post (2005 forward) would be a devilish trivia question!

Bill Johnson
Bill Johnson
12 years ago

Any thread with a Rocky Colavito mention is a good one. If only we’d had a DH back in the late 60’s maybe he could have extended his career a bit.

RJ
RJ
12 years ago

Well, the Giants have the chance to eliminate the Dodgers, so I wouldn’t say they have nothing to play for… Who ends up with the NL’s best record is something SF should be watching very closely, as they have been roughed up by Washington this year, going 1-5, allowing 45 runs to 24 scored.

Evan
Evan
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

If we want to really overthink this thing and we assume that the Giants wants to avoid the Nationals in the first round then the Giants would want the Reds to lose. The Reds are playing the Cardinals who would have nothing to play for if the Dodgers are eliminated. So if we follow along on this rather tenuous line of thinking the Giants would be unmotivated to beat the Dodgers in the avoiding the Nationals department.

RJ
RJ
12 years ago
Reply to  Evan

I guess it depends on which is valued higher: choice of playoff opponent, or being responsible for ending the Dodgers’ season. I’m gonna go with the latter.

Doug
Editor
12 years ago

With the conclusion of the Yankees/Jays series, the opportunity came and went for a game with 4 players over 2500 hits. The Yankees and Jays played eight times over the past two weeks, but Vizquel appeared in only one of those games, the one game (part of a double-header) that Jeter sat out.

Next gut to pass 2500 may be Abreu (signed through 2013; needs 63 more, but has only 48 this year) or possibly Pujols (probably in 2014).

Dalton Mack
Editor
12 years ago

Loved the wrapup, if only for the Procol Harum reference.

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

That is priceless, JA. Laughed out loud.

Dave
Dave
12 years ago

Will Miguel Cabrera be credited with a Triple Crown if he ties any category?

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Speaking of HR #44…

yep.

birtelcom
Editor
12 years ago

Following on suggestions made by Tom Tango at his blog, I wonder whether “making the playoffs” is really the right phrase anymore to describe teams who have merely clinched a spot in the wild card game. Given the large disadvantage that the wild card teams now have vis-vis division winners, isn’t it more descriptive to think of the wild card spots as places not in the playoffs but merely as places in a “play-in game”, where it takes a win to get you into the real playoffs. We’ve gotten used to the “They made the playoffs” phrase over the years… Read more »

RJ
RJ
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

My knowledge of the nomenclature of other US sports is poor, so if that’s the preferred terminology then fair enough, but otherwise I’m with birtelcom on this. Nowadays, in a situation where two teams have tied for the division and have to play a one-game decider, you wouldn’t describe the losing team as having made the playoffs would you? To me it just seems strange that teams are being celebrated as having made the playoffs when they could be out again having lost one solitary game.

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  RJ

But all this does is point out the idiocy of a one-game playoff series. If they can start the playoffs on a Friday instead of a Tuesday, they can move the schedule back another day or two to at least make the wild-card round 2 out of 3. Playoff baseball’s enough of a crap-shoot; making a series last just one game makes it that much worse. As always, thanks Bud!

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

3 games means your ace is ready for the next round, 1 game means you use him there and are at a disadvantage against the division winner you play next. Also the single game makes it that much more important to actually win your division. I suspect it will be less common for a wild card team to win the World Series going forward.

Not to mention a 1 gamer is much more exciting to watch.

Thanks Bud indeed

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Would you feel that way if the Brewers were in fourth and 8 games ahead of the second wild card?

birtelcom
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

I agree with topper on this one. I generally find Selig as maddening as the next guy, but the one game play-in round makes the regular season, which is a better test of real talent, more valuable. A team can avoid the one game crap-shoot simply by winning its division — second place teams get the highly reduced odds of having to endure an extra 50-50 (or thereabouts) risk before even getting to the League Division Series level. It really is a brilliant innovation to me, simultaneously putting more teams in the potential post-season mix while also making regular season… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Completely bassackwards. Like most things in life, the distribution of win percentage during the full season follows some variant of a normal distribution, with most teams clustered within +/- 1 sd of the mean. For a given constant interval of win percentage, you will therefore have more teams falling in the middle intervals than the peripheral ones, meaning the separation between the former is, on average, less than that between the latter. Which means that you need MORE, not fewer games between the lower ranked teams to determine which is likely better. Furthermore, the first wild card team will frequently… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

John, I’ve got a very simple solution for that:

Do away with the divisions, they accomplish absolutely nothing except to mess up whatever fairness exists in the playoffs. Take the 2 or 4 best teams, or a variable number to be determined by the separation of the top few teams, and put them into your playoff.

Or go back to pre-1969 ways. Either way.

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

I’ll still stick to this point: every time baseball introduces more teams into the playoff picture, it becomes more of a crap shoot. This is obvious. There’s a tenuous balance between having not enough teams in the postseason and having too many. The NBA and NHL clearly have way too many. The regular season is almost meaningless entirely. The NFL probably has it about right. MLB? I think they went over the line with adding a fifth team, and I’ve said this all year long, not just because my Braves have a 50% chance of not surviving a coin flip.… Read more »

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

JA, shouldn’t we care about the better/hotter team advancing enough to at least construct more than a one-frickin-game playoff series? What does the result of this game tell us? Certainly not which team is better or hotter. It’s only one game, after all.

I’d rather see Fredi Gonzalez and Mike Matheny play a rousing game of Hungry Hippos to decide this thing. Totally ridiculous.

tag
tag
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Jim, Not to go all overboard on this point, but you’re misrepresenting the position on the one-run win situation again. Nobody is saying that winning one-run games is all due to “luck.” The outcome of every single baseball game is decided by a combination of skill and luck, the precise mixture of which falls somewhere on the spectrum between, say, chess (a game of all skill), and roulette (one of all luck). The position is that in large-margin wins the role of luck is minimized and in one-run games, especially extra-inning affairs, the role of luck becomes more dominant. Saying… Read more »

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Bstar – I’m sympathetic to your concerns and yet I’m not sure how you could make it work, other than by eliminating the 2nd wild card. In #18, you argued for a 3 game series between the two wild cards. But I think there are some issues with that. 1) We’ve already seen that baseball was facing some “nightmare” scenarios based on certain ties that could have taken place. Adding in two more playoff games only exacerbates that situation. 2) Due to travel issues, a 3 game series couldn’t be played as a 1-1-1. It would have to be played… Read more »

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Ed, you make good points, but I’m against this whole 5th playoff team thing for a number of reasons, not just the one-game series thing. You’re right, the 3-game series would be a logistical nightmare. You probably would have to play it as a 1-2 instead of 1-1-1. But are you aware that the division series matchups this year will be 2-3 instead of 2-2-1 when the wild card team is involved? In fact, the play-in winner gets the first two games at home! If MLB is willing to do that, I don’t see why 1-2 isn’t possible. And a… Read more »

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

tag (@32 – in response to Jim @27), In these strings on luck my position has been close to Jim’s (substituting for Jim’s math skills my intangibles), but I think the way you’ve framed this is a step forward.

tag
tag
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Thanks, epm. I can honestly say I didn’t think I had to word things so specifically before because I assumed when talking about “luck” everyone would know that a “degree of luck” was being referred to. Otherwise the two managers could just walk up to home plate and flip a coin to see who wins. The outcome of a baseball game depends x amount on skill and x amount on luck. The problem is to solve for x. The skill-to-luck ratio is obviously higher in chess, track and field, and tennis, and I’m pretty certain for most other team sports:… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

“I have no idea how you would compute the odds of achieving the O’s’ 28-9 record…” Well, you should have, because I’ve explained it in great detail, and by your own previous statement you are well familiar with binomial probability models. “but I’m pretty certain a binomial distribution is not the way, because both skill and luck are playing a role to varying degrees. It’s not a coin flip situation.” This statement shows exactly why you are not understanding this issue. You’re just flat out wrong. Binomial models are designed for ANY process/phenomenon in which there are exactly two possible… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

and to just to make sure it’s clear, the issue here is not the use of the terms “luck” versus “random”, I’m using them interchangeably there (not because I believe them to be synonymous, but because others apparently do). The issue is what a binomial prob model can be applied to, versus what you *think* it can be applied to.

tag
tag
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Jim, I read your explanations carefully and appreciate them. You wrote: “Binomial models are designed for ANY process/phenomenon in which there are exactly two possible outcomes, and they return the probability that a random process alone can explain the observed results.” That’s clear and I’ve never disputed it. The O’s obviously could not have achieved their record by luck alone. So, given that baseball is not a random process, and given that it is not, like chess, an activity whose outcome derives purely from skill, what is the probability of the O’s achieving that record? No other team has played… Read more »

RJ
RJ
12 years ago

Gary Nolan’s homer in his shutout was the only home-run of his career. Quick question: why isn’t Nolan’s 1972 season ranked better by WAR? 176 IP, 1.99 ERA and a 162 ERA+ only amounts to 3.1 WAR? In fact, for a guy who had a sub 3.00 ERA through age his age 28 season I’m surprised he doesn’t have more WAR in general.

RJ
RJ
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Cheers JA, looks like some solid logic to me.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
12 years ago

Thanks for the double dose of game notes, JA. I was skeptical about your comment on Hochevar, but it just shows how familiarity with ERA+ and/or PI trumps common knowledge – I was certain that Hugh Mulcahy would slip in under him – and all for one franchise over a 13 year period (4 lost to the War) . . . but it’s not even close. I do note, however, that Mulcahy allowed one unearned run per five earned vs. one per fourteen for Hochevar – even allowing for the era (sorry), that seems like a pretty big discrepancy (during… Read more »

Nash Bruce
Nash Bruce
12 years ago

I’m late to this thread, and lots has been going on, the past couple days, in terms of the playoff picture, but since no one mentioned it, I have to look back and, upon seeing the Pittsburgh Pirates, bow my head……20 straight losing seasons, after their 4-3 loss to the Reds. They were in first place on July 18th, and were 16 games over .500 (2 1/2 back) after winning their first game of a ten game homestand on August 8th. Yet they went 2-7 over the remainder of that homestand, which was the beginning of the end. They still… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago

John (30), I’m not against trying any number of possible schemes both for filtering teams into and out of the playoffs, and determining who moves on in each round. But with the following restrictions… I think 5 teams is too many, pretty much always. Sometimes, even two teams would be too many. In other words, the number of teams admitted into the playoffs should be determined by a numerical procedure (a clustering algorithm) in which the separation of teams from each other in W-L percentage is the discriminatory criterion. In 2001 in the AL, that likely (depending on the exact… Read more »