Carlos Beltran is Señor Octubre

These are Carlos Beltran‘s career postseason stats, through game 2 of this NLCS:

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
30	137	111	38	42	9	0	14	25	9	0	24	15	.378	.489	.838	1.327	93	1	1	0	1	1

You’ve seen those numbers before. But let’s have a little fun and project them out to 150 games, roughly a full year for an every-day player:

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
150	685	555	190	210	45	0	70	125	45	0	120	75	.378	.489	.838	1.327	465	5	5	0	5	5

As a season line, that would set a few MLB records

190 Runs (modern record)
465 Total Bases
45 Stolen Bases without being caught

Projected to 162 games:

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
162	740	599	205	227	49	0	76	135	49	0	130	81	.378	.489	.838	1.327	502	5	5	0	5	5

You may have recognized a couple more records in that line:

76 HRs
125 Extra-Base Hits

Alas, it takes a rare combination of skill and good fortune to get into 150+ postseason games. But Beltran has made the most of his scattered opportunities. I hope we get to see him in a World Series before his time runs out.

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David

12 years ago

Mets could sure use a guy like that. Oh, right.

Doug

12 years ago

Amazing too how consistent he’s been – over 1.000 OPS in every series that he’s played 4+ games. Barring something unforeseen, this will be his 5th such series.

Even in the 3 games he played in the 2006 NLDS when he went only 2 for 9, he still had 5 walks for a .500 OBP.

12 years ago

Interestingly he’s only been intentionally walked once in his 137 postseason PAs. In the regular season, it’s once every 91 PAs. Perhaps managers are more reluctant to issue intentional walks in the postseason, even to someone with Beltran’s track record? On the other hand, his rate of “regular” walks is much, much higher in the postseason which could suggest that he’s being pitched around without directly being issued an intentional walk.

Evan

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

In 30 games he has 42 hits, 9 of which are doubles and 14 of which are HRs, yet he only has 25 RBI (one of which came on a SF) – he’s either not coming to bat with very many men on, not hitting very well when there are men on or being pitched around in these situations.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Evan

Evan, postseason RISP numbers are not available on B-R. But Beltran’s RE24 (or Base-Out Runs Added) projected to 150 games would be 113. In the last 20 years, only Barry Bonds has had a regular-season RE24 of 113 or higher (2001-02, ’04).

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Beltran batted second in 2004 and in 2012. The second spot in the lineup is a notoriously difficult spot from which to drive in runs, particularly in the NL where you’re only two spots after the pitcher.

Evan

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I was trying to explain the lack of IBBs. Lacking splits for postseason games those 3 explanations seemed the most probable. If forced to guess, I’d say few plate appearances with men on base followed by a good number of unintentional-intentional walks would be the most likely explanations to the comparatively low RBI and IBB totals, given the impressive nature of his other stats.

JDGentile

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Through 2011, I have Beltran at .235/.480/.412 in just 25 RISP PA in the post-season via Retrosheet.

So Evan is right, he hasn’t been driving in runners so much as getting pitched around, which is driving up his RE24.

JDV

12 years ago

Reply to Evan

Those are unreal projections. 205 runs scored sticks out. His teammates sure have had some RBIs.

Larry

12 years ago

Beltran probably would have had better career stats and had more post season appearances if he had re-signed with the Astros in 2005. His time with the Mets came across rather lackluster and he might have thrived away from the glare of NYC. He certainly won’t be remembered for much of anything he did as a Met other than striking out. But if his career filled out to what he did in KC, Houston and St Louis, he’d be hall of fame bound.

Howard

12 years ago

Reply to Larry

From 2006 through the middle of 2009 when he was injured Beltran was one of the best players in baseball as a Met. He had a better career in NY than he did in KC.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Larry

Not sure what numbers you’re looking at for Beltran’s Mets career, Larry. His first year there was subpar, but the next 3 were outstanding, averaging 6.6 WAR. Then came a couple of half-years with a combined 130 OPS+ and 4.1 WAR. And then his last year was very good, though he was dealt at the deadline.

Wishing that he’d have stayed with your Astros is certainly understandable. 🙂

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Only Wright and Strawberry among everyday players have more career WAR as a Met than Carlos.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Larry

In his time as a Met the only NL position players to have more WAR than Carlos Beltran are Albert Pujols and Chase Utley, not to mention the fact that Beltran missed almost 180 games in 2009-10. If Carlos Beltran is only going to be remembered for striking out in that time frame, sorry to say this but that’s on Mets fans for not appreciating a great player when he’s playing for your team. That’s certainly not the impression most fans have of Beltran. I can’t see how Beltran, with his incredible postseason performances, doesn’t end up in the Hall… Read more »

nightfly

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

This Met fan has no such limited memory, bstar. Beltran was the man. I always felt kind of sad that the Mets wasted the end of his prime years with Jerry freakin’ Manuel and his “bunt the guy from second to third with no outs in the first inning” offense; that they had a half-dozen second baseman at any one time, who combined might have been a passable player at the position; that they couldn’t get quite enough pitching for the rotation until the year after they dealt him (and hopefully Wheeler will justify that for the Mets); and worst,… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to nightfly

OK, good, nightfly, we’re thinking the same thing on this. I just don’t understand any narrative formed around one certain player making the last out of a particular season. Someone’s got to do it, right? Why turn him into a goat for that? To be honest, I’m not even aware of what exact at-bat we’re talking about although I do have a mental picture of Beltran buckling on a curveball.

JDGentile

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

2006 NLCS, Game 7, 9th inning, 2 outs, bases loaded, down 2 runs, 0-2 pitch… looking.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN200610190.shtml

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

@74 — Please explain in detail the difference in culpability between looking at strike three (on a gorgeous back-door curveball) and swinging through it.

JDGentile

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

@75 None. I didn’t mean to suggest there was. I was just filling bstar in on “what exact at-bat we’re talking about” is all.

It was a daisy of a moment, though. Absolutely unforgettable. The image of that pitch will forever be etched in my mind like none other.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Thnx, JDG. Now I get why my memory fogs on that play. There was A LOT of non-baseball drama going on in my life in 2005-06. I don’t think I saw one game of the White Sox-Astros World Series in 2005.

JDGentile

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

99-02 is like that for me. Non-baseball drama is the worst kind of drama.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Ha, agree with that wholeheartedly. By the way, James, bstar = maddogisgod. 😉

JDGentile

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Ha! I knew it!

I’ve always enjoyed our conversations, bstar. *Especially* the ones where we don’t see eye to eye. I was ‘JDanger’ Fangraphs, also. We ran into each other a few times there as well.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Ahhhhh, the erstwhile Mr. Danger reveals himself at last. 🙂

Please bug Mr. Appelmann about where the home/road career UZR splits went on Fangraphs.

MDIG was my Braves blog moniker. I need to change it.

Yes, I have enjoyed our arguments as well.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Two instant reactions to Eduardo Nunez’s run-saving great play on Andy Dirks:
(1) Not a chance that Jeter gets that ball; and
(2) Even on a great play, Nunez still boots it a bit.

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Course the Yankees also need to score run and Jeter’s one of the few Yankees with a decent track record against Verlander…

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Not for a minute would I suggest that the Yanks were better off without Jeter. But that was a big play.

Meanwhile, Verlander just got two straight gift strikes on Ibanez.

Howard

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Take THAT Derek Jeter! Nunez goes deep!

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Nunez with the first really good AB of the game, and now it’s nervous time.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Gardner should be Verlander’s last batter. No swings and misses in a long time, he’s over 130 pitches, and Ichiro has 2 hits.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

And now we get to test Girardi’s theory of game 2 — that it’s a lot different game down by 1 run than by 3.

Jameson

12 years ago

Verlander is at 128 pitches and counting. What is his career high?

Jameson

12 years ago

Nevermind. Here’s Coke.

Nash Bruce

12 years ago

Reply to Jameson

Jameson and Coke? 😉

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Coke vs. Teixeira is a mistake, I think. Teix has more power from the right side. And he’s never struck out vs. Coke in 7 PAs.

Luis Gomez

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I say bring Valverde in!!

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Luis Gomez

They’re saving Papa for when Coke loads the bases.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

If you were scripting it, you’d definitely have the oh-fer Cano up in this spot, right?

DaveR

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I predict home run.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

… or would your script leave it up to Ibanez?

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Shall I test my kibosh? Cano has 1 career HR in Comerica Park.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

I believe I’ve already mentioned the HR Coke gave up to Ibanez in the 2009 WS.

DaveR

12 years ago

Okay, Cano singled. I think Ibanez flies out to medium right-center.

DaveR

12 years ago

Reply to DaveR

Nibble nibble nibble. This ain’t NY, with the little right field, Coke!

12 years ago

There’s a saying in English soccer referring to the tense final stages of a season: “squeaky bum time”. This is that time.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

[breathes]

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I’d been flipping back & forth between the debate & the game so I wasn’t sure who was up in Detroit’s bullpen when Gardner reached.

I don’t think I’d be any happier to see a Coke even after wandering in the desert for a couple of days.

e pluribus munu

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

One effect of HHS is that I can’t follow a Tigers game anymore without thinking about you two guys. But despite being a fellow traveler where Detroit’s concerned, my awareness of HHS Yankee fans like Mike L seems to be tempering the edge of delight, and as other HHS contributors reveal that somehow they are loyal to franchises that have always been on my enemies list (like Larry for the Astros and Luis for the Padres), I’m finding the psychology of incipient despair that I feel when I follow baseball games is coming from all sides – as if I… Read more »

Luis Gomez

12 years ago

Hey John, have you open your eyes yet?

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Luis Gomez

Hey, Luis! Believe it or not, I watched every pitch — though I made sure to resign myself to the go-ahead hit. I wrote off the season after we lost our final game with Chicago, falling 3 back with 16 to play. So I feel like I’m playing with house money now, and I won’t be crushed if we lose.

But ask me again if we get to the W.S. 🙂

Luis Gomez

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Man, I sure love baseball!

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

So you wrote off the Tigers as Andy once wrote off the Phillies long ago and far away on that other site? 🙂

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

I recall several of the Tigers posters on HHS writing off their team a few weeks before the season ended. Which raises the deep philosophical question of whether they’re allowed to celebrate if the Tigers win. 🙂

brp

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

No, it’s just reasonable to be pessimistic. Why?

1) You’re not disappointed when bad things happen.
2) You’re really excited when good things actually happen.

I don’t know if I was born this way and that’s why I like the Cubs or if liking the Cubs makes you think about life this way…

Mike L

12 years ago

The sound of taps in playing in the background for the Yankee season. Oh well. John A, if it’s not going to be the Yankees or the O’s, go get ’em. Someone should get some pleasure out of this.

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Mike L

I’ll be rooting for the Tigers too in their next step, yet I did a decent part of tonight’s game. I was flipping back and forth between the game and the debate, and at some point decided the debate was the more compelling of the two competitions!

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

I did *miss* a decent part…

Oh for the addition of an edit button.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

Mike D,, there were more hits in the debate….

Mike Felber

12 years ago

Is Beltran’s great PS appearance clearly the result of skill, or luck? Can anyone know in so few PA?

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Mike Felber

Skill or luck for Beltran? Good and timely question, Mike Felber! Let’s see how he did in one-run games….

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I don’t want to do any in-depth analysis but keep in kind that in the playoffs you’re generally facing the best pitchers on the best teams. Here’s how the team’s Beltran has faced in the playoffs have ranked in ERA that year:

1, 2, 4, 9, 4, 1, 5

So he’s generally been doing this against some of the top staffs in the NL.

Editor

Bryan O'Connor

12 years ago

In a way, it would be tragic if Beltran never played in the World Series. In another way, it would be a great lesson in the power of the team in baseball (and randomness and luck and all that) if the best postseason hitter ever retired without playing in a World Series.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Bryan O'Connor

Good point, Bryan.

And of course, past performance is no guarantee. Jim Edmonds was a postseason monster before his first WS — 32 games, 1.022 OPS, 10 HRs, 30 RBI — but then went 1 for 15 with nada as his Cards were swept by Boston. His second WS wasn’t much better, and he ended his career 5 for 32 (no HRs) on the biggest stage.

P.S. Among all players with zero WS games, Beltran is #1 in postseason hits, HRs (by 14 to 8), RBI and walks.

nightfly

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Did you use the PI to search that? I am having the devil’s own time trying to get the postseason game finder to produce results here. One thing that occurs to me, with no way to check it – Beltran’s whole career has happened in the 3-round postseason era (from 1995), and four of his five career series have gone the distance (two fives, two sevens). This gives him 30 postseason games (and counting) in just his third postseason trip. From ’69-’84, there were only five available non-WS postseason games, and only two teams to play in them (while failing… Read more »

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to nightfly

Nightfly: Are you talking about Edmonds’ stats for the PI search?

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to nightfly

Nightfly — My statement that Beltran is #1 in postseason [xyz] among those with zero WS games was derived from two separate P-I “batting game finders”, whose results I then copied into Excel and compared via formulas.

nightfly

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

JA – ok, thanks. I saw individual game events and streaks and just about anything except accumulated postseason stats. It’s got me stumped.

Richard – it wasn’t Edmonds per se, but anyone. AFAIK, there’s no way to ask the PI to return a table of players sorted by most postseason PA or games or IP or anything like that. I’m also not finding postseason leaderboards like the comprehensive leaderboards that B-R has for all things regular season. It could always be something painfully obvious that I’m overlooking…

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Nightfly @57 — To get postseason totals from a P-I Game Finder, choose the option “Find Players with Most Matching Games in Multiple Years.”

If you specify no other criteria, it will return a list containing career totals sorted by most games played.

Note that the set of categories shown in this method is not as robust as a normal search — e.g., it does not show Runs Scored.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Reply to #57: If you do what John said in post 58 for all seasons and all post-season games up comes a spreadsheet showing the top 300 players with the most matching games. Altogether there are 3525 players on all of the tables. On that first sheet Derek Jeter is first with 158 games played and Mike Remlinger is 300th with 25 games played. Obviously all players on the ensuing tables have played in 25 or fewer games. You can then sort the various columns by clicking on the title bar for individual parameters such as PA, AB, H, 2B,… Read more »

nightfly

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Thanks for the help, guys! I also found the postseason leaderboards, cleverly hidden under “postseason” – whodatunkit?

Larry

12 years ago

Carlos Beltran played for the Mets from age 27 to 34. The very prime of just about any player’s career. It is hard to see how he could have had fewer post-season appearances if he signed with ANY other team that could have afforded his 120 million dollar price tag. He put up some good numbers. May in New York – but I don’t think elsewhere that fans looked upon him as the premier outfielder of his generation (although I think he is in the top three or four). He obviously had his heart set on playing in New York.… Read more »

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Larry

On a tangent, and FWIW … The notion that age 27 to 34 represents a typical player’s prime is way off-base. The vast majority of position players reach their peak between 25 and 29, and by their early 30s are well into their decline phase. The evidence of this simply overwhelming.

(Notwithstanding the fact that some people holding this belief are employed as MLB general managers.)

Brent

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

John:

As a Cardinals fan, I am holding you responsible for this knee injury that Beltran suffered in the 1st inning today. Some sort of jinx is clearly working here.

Of course, his replacement hits a 2 run HR off Cain, so things are not all bad

Larry

12 years ago

I wonder if “He (Beltran) is very pro-active (concerning an injury)” is a euphemism for “He’s a pussy”.

Brooklyn Mick

12 years ago

Reply to Larry

Beltran’s had three seasons where he spent time on the DL: In 2000 he played in 98 games, in 2009 he played in 64, and in 2010 he played in 64. That averages out to exactly 81 games missed per season over the course of those three seasons.

In all other seasons (excluding 1998 when he was a September call-up), he’s averaged 151 games per season, including seasons of 162, 161, and 159. Not quite what I’d call a pussy.

Larry

12 years ago

John, I am going to make a statement which I think is true, but having followed the Astros forever, I might have lost track of baseball reality: “The vast majority of position players are older than 25”. That is either true or false. But I seem to recall that the Astros were the youngest team in baseball with an average age of around 25, so that is where I base my opinion on that statement. So, it seems to be contradictory and mutually exclusive to hold that a player’s prime is 25 to 29 and that the vast majority of… Read more »

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Larry

Larry, I’m sorry but I could not follow the reasoning there. But here are some facts that may be relevant: For the 5 years 2008-2012 combined: The number of qualifying batters by 5-yr. age group: Age – # of Qualifiers 23-27 – 293 24-28 – 340 25-29 – 354 26-30 – 339 27-31 – 311 28-32 – 285 29-33 – 251 30-34 – 224 31-35 – 189 Median WAR of qualifiers, by 5-yr. age group: 24-28 – 2.7 25-29 – 2.8 26-30 – 2.7 27-31 – 2.8 28-32 – 2.7 29-33 – 2.4 30-34 – 2.2 31-35 – 2.3 From… Read more »

Bells

12 years ago

Reply to Larry

The thing is, you can’t draw the conclusion that the majority of players are over 25 from the fact that the youngest team might have an average age of 25. It all depends on ‘average’. Usually this means ‘mean’. But you can’t really get much younger than 25 in baseball, maybe down to 20, but the Harpers of the world are rare. You can, however, have many players playing up until 35-40. That is 10-15 years over 25, but only 5 years under. So, let’s say you have a team of 10 players, 8 of whom are 23 and 2… Read more »

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

I was going about this the wrong way. The right way is to form a group of players, then follow them through their careers. So: Players born 1946-55, 3000+ PAs and positive career WAR (189 players). Median WAR among those active at age: 23 – 1.0 24 – 1.4 25 – 1.8 26 – 2.0 27 – 2.3 28 – 1.8 29 – 1.7 30 – 1.6 31 – 1.0 32 – 0.9 33 – 1.0 34 – 0.7 35 – 0.6 36 – 0.5 I’m just reiterating work that’s been in far more detail by others. The bottom line… Read more »

Larry

12 years ago

@ John and Bells – thanks for the replies – I am in agreement with your explanations. I had started by saying that the Mets signed Beltran from age 27 to 34 and that was the very prime of his career. John, I think I remember Bill James writing an essay in this way back when and that he clearly showed how players drop off after age 30. I should have recalled that. It is better to say that the Mets got Beltran at “the peak of his prime” age 27-29. Indeed, the 31-34 years were post-prime. So, 4 of… Read more »

Larry

12 years ago

Reply to Larry

(continued) while paying for past production where the player likely just got major league minimum while hoping the magic lasts until age 35 or beyond. Alas, for Albert and A-rod and many others, it seldom does.