Who will be the next 400 HR hitter?

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This season, Paul Konerko, David Ortiz and Adam Dunn have joined the 400 HR club that now boasts 50 members. But, it’s not entirely clear who the next club member may be.

After the jump, I’ll look at the history of the 400 HR club, and what may lie ahead?

There were half as many members in the 400 HR club as recently as 1997. These are the players in the club at the end of that season.

Rk	Player	HR	From	To	Age
1	Hank Aaron	755	1954	1976	20-42
2	Babe Ruth	714	1914	1935	19-40
3	Willie Mays	660	1951	1973	20-42
4	Frank Robinson	586	1956	1976	20-40
5	Harmon Killebrew	573	1954	1975	18-39
6	Reggie Jackson	563	1967	1987	21-41
7	Mike Schmidt	548	1972	1989	22-39
8	Mickey Mantle	536	1951	1968	19-36
9	Jimmie Foxx	534	1925	1945	17-37
10	Willie McCovey	521	1959	1980	21-42
11	Ted Williams	521	1939	1960	20-41
12	Ernie Banks	512	1953	1971	22-40
13	Eddie Mathews	512	1952	1968	20-36
14	Mel Ott	511	1926	1947	17-38
15	Eddie Murray	504	1977	1997	21-41
16	Lou Gehrig	493	1923	1939	20-36
17	Willie Stargell	475	1962	1982	22-42
18	Stan Musial	475	1941	1963	20-42
19	Dave Winfield	465	1973	1995	21-43
20	Carl Yastrzemski	452	1961	1983	21-43
21	Dave Kingman	442	1971	1986	22-37
22	Andre Dawson	438	1976	1996	21-41
23	Billy Williams	426	1959	1976	21-38
24	Darrell Evans	414	1969	1989	22-42
25	Duke Snider	407	1947	1964	20-37

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used Generated 9/5/2012.

And, these are the players who have joined each year since then.

Rk	Player	Year	HR	From	To	Age
26	Mark McGwire	1998	457	1986	1998	22-34
27	Barry Bonds	1998	411	1986	1998	21-33
28	Jose Canseco	1999	431	1985	1999	20-34
29	Cal Ripken	1999	402	1981	1999	20-38
30	Ken Griffey	2000	438	1989	2000	19-30
31	Fred McGriff	2000	417	1986	2000	22-36
32	Rafael Palmeiro	2000	400	1986	2000	21-35
33	Sammy Sosa	2001	450	1989	2001	20-32
34	Juan Gonzalez	2002	405	1989	2002	19-32
35	Jeff Bagwell	2003	419	1991	2003	23-35
36	Frank Thomas	2003	418	1990	2003	22-35
37	Jim Thome	2004	423	1991	2004	20-33
38	Gary Sheffield	2004	415	1988	2004	19-35
39	Manny Ramirez	2005	435	1993	2005	21-33
40	Alex Rodriguez	2005	429	1994	2005	18-29
41	Mike Piazza	2006	419	1992	2006	23-37
42	Carlos Delgado	2006	407	1993	2006	21-34
43	Chipper Jones	2008	408	1993	2008	21-36
44	Jason Giambi	2009	409	1995	2009	24-38
45	Vladimir Guerrero	2009	407	1996	2009	21-34
46	Albert Pujols	2010	408	2001	2010	21-30
47	Andruw Jones	2010	407	1996	2010	19-33
48	Paul Konerko	2012	417	1997	2012	21-36
49	Adam Dunn	2012	403	2001	2012	21-32
50	David Ortiz	2012	401	1997	2012	21-36

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used Generated 9/5/2012.

So, there has been at least one new member every year since 1998, except for 2007 and 2011. And, the three new members this year is matched only by the year 2000. In contrast, the last player to join the 400 HR club before 1998 was Andre Dawson, back in 1993.

But, what about the active HR leaders not in the 400 HR club? Here’s that list, showing projected career HR totals and chance to reach 400 HR from the Bill James’ career projection tool (aka “Favorite Toy”). Note that these projections are based on career totals through the 2011 season ONLY.

Rk	Player	HR	From	To	Age	Projected Career HR	Probability to Reach 400 HR
1	Alfonso Soriano	366	1999	2012	23-36	418	80%
2	Lance Berkman	360	1999	2012	23-36	436	97%
3	Carlos Lee	357	1999	2012	23-36	433	97%
4	Todd Helton	354	1997	2012	23-38	378	9%
5	Adrian Beltre	338	1998	2012	19-33	403	54%
6	Mark Teixeira	337	2003	2012	23-32	517	97%
7	Aramis Ramirez	336	1998	2012	20-34	405	57%
8	Carlos Beltran	330	1998	2012	21-35	346	0%
9	Scott Rolen	314	1996	2012	21-37	335	0%
10	Miguel Cabrera	311	2003	2012	20-29	510	97%
11	Miguel Tejada	304	1997	2011	23-37	335	0%
12	Ryan Howard	296	2004	2012	24-32	496	97%
13	Torii Hunter	294	1997	2012	21-36	359	16%
14	Bobby Abreu	286	1996	2012	22-38	322	0%
15	Carlos Pena	275	2001	2012	23-34	408	56%
16	Raul Ibanez	267	1996	2012	24-40	290	0%
17	Vernon Wells	258	1999	2012	20-33	358	22%
18	Derek Jeter	254	1995	2012	21-38	275	0%
19	Prince Fielder	253	2005	2012	21-28	530	97%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used Generated 9/5/2012.

So, that’s what the next 5 years or so looks like for future 400 HR hitters. Perhaps not so many as in the recent past, but also certainly not a famine. With the knowledge of their 2012 seasons, I have my doubts about Berkman and, more especially, Carlos Lee making it. I’m more optimistic than Favorite Toy about Beltre and Aramis Ramirez, but more pessimistic (tending to zero) on Hunter, Pena and Wells.

Finally, Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn appear to be the only teammates to reach the 400 HR milestone in the same season. Other 400 HR teammates include: [table id=65 /]

Any others I missed?

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Andy

12 years ago

Slightly off topic, but your list reminded me…it’s amazing how close Adrian Beltre is to being a Hall of Famer already. Guess his career WAR.

Did you guess 60? Well it’s 59.9 at the moment so there’s a great shot he’ll top 60 by the end of the year. That puts him in the top 100 position players already, similar to McCovey, Dawson, Billy Williams, Dave Winfield, etc. If he can tack on just 15 more and finish around 75, that will be in the neighborhood of Joe DiMaggio, Ozzie Smith, and Rod Carew.

Amazed? I was.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

You wonder how he does it. But, he will certainly get well past 2500 hits (Favorite Toy says 49% chance at 3000) and 500 doubles (Favorite Toy says 89% chance at 600).

On the other hand, he has only a 111 OPS+ and he’s a 3rd baseman. By comparison, Ron Santo was a 125. Hard to see him adding a lot of points to his OPS+ at this stage of his career. Ditto for black and grey ink where he’s miles behind the HOF standard.

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Among players with at least 1,000 games at third base, Beltre is 27th in career batting WAR, but second all-time in career fielding WAR, behind only Brooks Robinson (though he is way behind Brooksie). In short, Beltre is a WAR-based Hall of Fame candidate because of his defense, supplemented by solid but hardly historic offense.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

The most amazing thing about Beltre to me is his age. I can’t believe he’s not yet 34.

Berkman hinted recently that he’s simply fulfilling his contractual obligations to remain with St. Louis right now; I think he might retire at the end of the year.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Berkman is considering returning to Rice as a student and coach:

http://www.myfoxhouston.com/story/19477366/2012/09/06/lance-berkman-may-retire-return-to-rice-university

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

This topic popped up in a minor way a couple weeks back, I think driven by a comment from JA. To me the question isn’t whether he’s worthy of consideration. He is, although he’s still short by my score but gaining rapidly. The question is whether he’s really close to being a Hall of Famer based on how BBWAA members vote. Those are two different conversations, and to me the critical one, since if BBWAA members don’t view him as a HOFer, then he won’t be a HOFer. Things working against him is that for a good portion of his… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

So, if it is only through 2011, then Beltran’s 330 reads as 302.
302 through age 34, and the tool gives him a 0% chance?

It factors in his statistical regression due to injuries, I’m sure.
But I’d place a dollar on an infinity-to-one shot of Beltran getting to 400.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Plugging in 30 HR for this season (Beltran hasn’t gone deep for almost a month, so he’s probably due for a couple more before the end of the year), Favorite Toy now gives him a projected 387 and a 31% shot at 400.

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

A-Rod is the only man to make the 400-club before his 30th birthday. Foxx, Mantle, Pujols and Ken Griffey, Jr. made it after turning 30 but before turning 31. Eddie Mathews is the only hitter to make the club after turning 31 but before turning 32. In the year between turning 32 and turning 33, you start to add a large contingent, including a bunch of the big guns: Aaron, Ruth and Mays all joined the 400-homer club between their 32nd and 33rd birthdays, as did Ott, Killebrew, Sosa, Frank Robinson, Juan Gonzalez, Manny Ramirez and now Adam Dunn, who… Read more »

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

On the flip side, Bonds, Palmeiro and Darrell Evans are the only 400-club guys with more than half their career HR in their age 33 season or later.

Jimbo

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

So was Darrell Evans an early….?

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

I doubt it. Most of Evans issue was with WHERE he played. Early in his career he hit 41 home runs as a 26 year old in the old Atlanta launching pad. After that big year his numbers returned to where they had been before until going into a slump a couple years later and getting shipped off to the Giants and Candlestick Park a notoriously poor home run park. After his first years his performance returned to where it had been but his seasonal home run totals were 10 to 15 lower than before. Then at 37 years old… Read more »

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

Very true, Hartvig. But, in the interest of full disclosure, have to mention Evans’ age 36 season in 1983, his last with the Giants, when he had 30 HR, 10 more than his best previous season in SF, and the most since his career best 41 HR in Atlanta in 1973. He also had 150 OPS+ that year, only a shade below his career best 156 at age 26. The 40 HR season in Detroit that you mentioned came two years later, and two years later still was a 34 HR season in 1987 (but, everybody had a good year… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

When I first started watching baseball in the 1970s, Evans 1973 season seemed way out of line with much of his career through the 70s and into the early 80s. If that had happened today, people would be screaming PEDs!!!!

Now looking back at his entire career, and looking at his OPS+’s, nothing seems out of ordinary at all.

Remains to this day an underrated player. Many ballplayers who had a large chunk of their careers fall into the 1970s appear underrated because hitting was depressed.

Howard

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

Candlestick had a reputation as a very poor HR hitters park but I don’t think it was really the case. Willie Mays and Willie McCovey both hit more HRs at Candlestick than on the road in the years they played there and Evans in 1983 hit 16 HRs at Candlestick and 14 on the road.

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Dave Winfield, Carl Yastrzemski and Cal Ripken were late joiners — they made it to 400 homers after their 39th birthday but before their 40th (Ripken was about 10 days short of his 40th birthday when he got his 400th). But the oldest guy to hit his 400th homer, and the only one to hit his 400th after his 40th birthday, has been Darrell Evans, who hit his 400th career homer well after turning 41 years old.

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Members of the 400-club by the position they played the most:
1 catcher
2 shortstops (though A-Rod will soon be recategorized to third base)
3 designated hitters
4 third basemen
5 center fielders
7 left fielders
11 right fielders
17 first basemen

Among players who played second base more than any other position, there are just two members of the 300-homer club: Jeff Kent and Rogers Hornsby.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

I had to double check and see Sandberg. 282 Really was a different era. I also didn’t know that Ryno was a shortstop in the minors, nor that his first season at the show was at third base. The Cubs were entrenched at Short with Larry Bowa, who could never hit but still had a rep with the glove. They picked up Ron Cey in ’83 and moved Ryne to 2nd, bumping Bump, who took his skills to Japan. Dunston was the overall #1 pick in 1982. Though he didn’t play in Chicago until ’85, maybe being committed to him… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Ah yes, and he was traded WITH Bowa to Chicago…

12 years ago

I agree on Beltran seeming a little low, but Teixeira seems a little high (his 8 string of 30-100 appears to be ending).

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to PP

Tiex’s singles and doubles have dipped, but his homer % has remained steady.
No reason for the favorite toy to calculate that he won’t keep averaging 36 a year.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teixema01-bat.shtml#batting_ratio::none

Though I do agree with you – I wouldn’t bet 100/97 that he’s going to get there, either.

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to PP

His string will probably end this year, but mostly driven by a number of injuries. We’ll have to see if this is age-related (meaning he’ll now be more injury prone), or just one of those years. 97% anything in baseball seems high, but I’d be pretty shocked if he didn’t make it to 400. Carlos Lee, however, at 97% is way too high. I’m not even sure he’ll find a job next year. He’s an AL, DH candidate, yet AL teams have not been kind to Lee types in recent years. If I had to place a bet, I say… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

FWIW, this is not the first year that Teix has been affected by injuries; he had something in late 2010, but played through it, so the effect was seen in his production rather than his games played. Either way, it’s hard not to see him as a player in decline.

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

There is no doubt that Teixeira is in decline, and has been beginning with the 2010 season. His 30 HR/100 RBI streak will most likely end this year because he is going to play in the fewest number of games in a season since becoming a regular. He was a 140 OPS+ player for six years running, where this year he’s on track for his third straight 120ish OPS+ year. Could even come in a touch lower this year depending how he finishes. While he’s dropped from a 140 to a 120 player, I would still regard him as a… Read more »

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Tex’s contract will be like Giambi’s to the Yankees, albeit not as severe. His production is declining, his cost is extremely high, and they are going to need a competent back-up because he’s having problems staying on the field. Between him and A-Rod, that means both corner positions have to be covered for as much as an aggregate of 120 games per year-basically a third regular. In my opinion, the Yankees need at least three years at minimum to reset, and should take advantage of the 2014 luxury tax issue as cover for re-focusing on younger players.

12 years ago

Reply to PP

aha, my mistake, I meant 517 career projection for Teixeira, I’d say 400 for him is a lock

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Konerko is awesome of course, but I’m afraid age may be catching up to him. He still has one big year left on his contract so we’ll see what he does at age 37 next year. Dunn has stolen a lot of Paully’s RBI’s this year, but I love the lineup they have now with Youk hitting second. Some great observations about Beltran.

Admin

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Timmy Pea

Timmy! I was just thinking that I hadn’t seen a comment from you in a while and missed you.

Jimbo

12 years ago

97% for Berkman and Lee? I’d say Berkman looks like 30% and Lee maybe ~50%

Beltre seems like a lock to me barring major injury.

0% for Beltran? I don’t get that at all. I think his chance is better than Lee or Berkman. Something seems totally wrong with the Beltran prediction.

Vernon Wells is really close to 0% in reality.

Jimbo

12 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

I guess post 2011 Berkman did seem like a pretty good lock.

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Either looking through Doug’s tables or by doing a bit of PI searching, you can find that the oldest player to debut in the majors and still make the 400-homer club was Jason Giambi, who was 24 years and four months old when he made his major league debut. Feel free to insert your favorite PED peeve remark here.

Jimbo

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

So Ryan Howard should break that.

12 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

Just perusing Ryan Howard’s stats, something jumped out at me. What the hell was going on with his stolen base totals in 2009? He’s never had more than 1 SB or CS in ANY other season, yet he steals 8 in ’09?

12 years ago

Reply to RJ

It is weird. I looked through the game logs and half of them, he was the back end of a double steal. A few were quite bizarre however. In one game, he stole 3rd with two outs and the Phils down 4-1. I wouldn’t even send Rickey Henderson in that situation! Another time, they were up 4-3, Rollins was on 3rd, Howard on 1st, two outs. And Howard steals second. Again, makes no sense that I can think of.

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

The best part in that last example is that Howard still doesn’t score on the following hit.

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Scratch that, I was looking at another example. Anyway, I can only guess that the ’09 Phillies were toying with the element of surprise.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

With Rollins on third and two outs in the 4-3 game it’s possible they were thinking that Howard would draw the throw, and Rollins could steal home.

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to RJ

198 guys have had careers with more than 3500 PAs but no more than 20 career stolen bases. Among those guys, the most SBs in a season:
Billy Gardner (1957) 10
Geoff Blum (2001) 9
Four guys with 8: Harmon Killebrew (1969), John Bateman (1970), Ryan Howard (2009), Sid Gordon (1948)

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Four of Killebrew’s 8 steals in 1969 were as part of successful triple steals! Three times it was Carew stealing home, once it was Tovar.

Killebrew also managed to steal two bases in one inning that year plus steal in both ends of a double header. Pretty amazing since he was 33 at the time and only had 7 total steals prior to that year.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Killebrew didn’t steal any bases but he was the hitter in this 1969 game when four bases were stolen in the same at bat.
– double steal (2nd/Home) by Carew/Tovar
– third and home by Carew

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN196905180.shtml

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

birtelcom,

If you extend the career limit to 25 SBs, you get these other single season notables.

10 – Jason Varitek (2004), Don Mincher (1969, was caught 11 times)
8 – Sandy Alomar (1994), Roger Maris (1957), Roy Campanella (1952), Vern Stephens (1947)

Phil Gaskill

12 years ago

I think several of the above projections are based totally on Favorite Toy numbers to the point that they ignore what the future *looks* like (i.e., when you look at a guy physically). Does anybody really seriously think Fielder’s body is going to last long enough for him to hit that many homers? Cabrera? Howard? These three look a little doubtful to me.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Phil Gaskill

Fielder and Cabrera-yes and yes I think they will last long enough to get to 400. They’ve both been eerily durable over their entire careers. Cabrera is a Hall-of-Fame-class hitter and is not going to roll out of bed one day and suddenly forget how to hit. I like Cabrera for 500 HR, 450 minimum. Fielder could start to fade a little earlier for sure and he’s not as talented as Cabrera, but the guy’s only 28 years old. Howard could continue to fade but we need to remember the guy’s still a bona fide 30 HR guy when healthy,… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

I need to add, though, that you’re right about the Favorite Toy being completely devoid of any contextual information surrounding these players. Some of the percentages are ridiculous. The Toy’s OK for a quick and dirty but is not much use for serious analysis. I think you have to look at the individual cases a lot closer to get a truer idea.

Phil Gaskill

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Yeah, but I’m not talking about rolling out of bed one day and suddenly forgetting how to hit: I’m talking about their *weight,* especially Fielder but the other two as well. Athletes as heavy as Fielder rarely last as long as ones who weigh a more, ah, “appropriate” amount, especially their knees. And the flameout is often sudden and catastrophic; you don’t see it coming, unless you notice what kind of, ah, shape they’re in. Oh, and I’m not talking about whether or not they’ll make it to *four* hundred (although even that is debatable too, IMHO); I’m really talking… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Phil Gaskill

Ah, OK, yes 500 is another matter entirely. Your view of these players’ weights and the possible detrimental effects down the line is certainly a commonly accepted one. As for Cabrera, I’ve always thought the best body comp for him is Andres Galarraga, who played ’til he was 43. Fielder does look to be the heaviest of the three for sure.

12 years ago

Reply to Phil Gaskill

Agree on Howard. He has no chance of hitting 200 more homers. Since Cabrera and Fielder are both under 30 and haven’t broken down yet, I’d say they still have a good shot.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to PP

I thought the tables were for chances at 400, not 500, PP.

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Right. I was more fascinated with the 500 projections. But my assumption is 400 for all three, and all three… IMO Cabrera should make it (500), Fielder possibly, and Howard (and Tex) I doubt very much.

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

And since I’m just a regular visitor here throwing in my occasional 2 cents, what the heck is the Favorite Toy?

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to PP

Favorite Toy is a method devised in the 1980s by Bill James for projecting career totals for some counting stat (Hits, HRs, Doubles, etc.), and for estimating the probability of reaching some desired milestone for that stat. It is very basic and is really a just-for-fun tool, useful for starting debates (as you see here).

You can try it out for yourself at the link in the article.

12 years ago

Reply to PP

Doug – There’s a problem with the ESPN calculator you linked to. Basically they screwed up the weighting and they’re weighting last years total by a factor on 1 and the total from 3 years ago by a factor of 3. Which is backwards. To get it to work properly, you have to put last years total into the box that says “Three Years Ago” and put the total from three years ago into the box that says “Last Year Total”. If you play around with it, you’ll see what I mean.

12 years ago

Reply to PP

I missed that little link. One tool all stats. Pretty nifty. I tried it the standard way and Ed’s way and there was a little difference, but not much with the numbers I put in.

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Phil Gaskill

As of the end of 2011, Cabrera and Fielder had both completed their age 28 season and had between 250 and 300 homers. Eight other guys completed their age 28 seasons with their career homers at that level. Of them, five eventually made it to 400 (Aaron, Mays, Killebrew, Frank Robinson and, newly, Adam Dunn) and three didn’t make it, for various reasons (Johnny Bench, Ralph Kiner, Darryl Strawberry).

mosc

12 years ago

I think the real question is who gets there first right? Not who gets there eventually? I think Soriano will get it. He’s making too much money to sit and he does have some pop in the bat even if everything else has severely faded. Tex and Cabrera are a couple years away but they’ll get there, I’d say Tex gets there before Cabrera. Cabrera is a great hitter but doesn’t always swing for the fences. Tex is basically a TTO guy these days.

mosc

12 years ago

Reply to mosc

also, I was looking at his career OPS before and after this cubs mega-deal. 115 before, 111 after. That’s actually a pretty small drop off for a guy who started an 8 year deal at age 31. Clearly he’s not stealing like he used to but how many 36 year olds are effective on the base paths? The cubs overpaid for a left field power hitter who’s always been an out machine. Did they really think they were buying speed? He’s been the poster child for their decline from relevancy but it’s really not fair.

Dog Bed

10 years ago

Hey there! Do you know if they make any plugins to protect against hackers?
I’m kinda paranoid about losing everything I’ve worked hard
on. Any recommendations?