Tuesday game notes

Athletics 6, @Angels 5: A 9th-inning roller-coaster left the Halos queasy and their fans downright nauseous. After the visitors tacked on 2 runs while the best Angel reliever sat idle, Anaheim quickly got those runs back and — with no outs — had the tying run on 3rd, and the winner on 1st in the speedy form of Peter Bourjos.

But in an uncanny replay of their first inning, the Angels were turned aside again. Lefty Jerry Blevins replaced closer Grant Balfour, which turned around Kendrys Morales to his much weaker side, whence he feebly fanned. Then Howie Kendrick got a hittable pitch on 1-and-2, but his hard grounder found only leather, as Josh Donaldson started a 5-4-3 that dropped the Angels 2.5 games out of the playoff chase.

  • Wait a minute! Blevins didn’t have a save all year — wasn’t it against the rules to bring him in there?!?
  • Speaking of roller-coasters … In the 1st, Torii Hunter singled to put men on the corners with no outs; they didn’t score. In the 2nd, he fanned with a man on 3rd and 1 out. In the 7th, he homered to bring his team within a run. Top of the 9th, he misplayed Coco Crisp‘s drive, costing at least 1 run and maybe 2. In the home 9th, he drove in a run and went 1st-to-3rd on Albert’s laser single to LF. But there he stayed.
  • Talk about an eerie replay: Look how last year’s 9/11 game ended for the Angels. That loss also left them 2.5 games out of the postseason race.
  • A’s are 38-17 since the Break, best in MLB, and have the AL’s 2nd-best record over all.
  • Rookie Dan Straily allowed 2 HRs, making 6 in his 2 starts against Anaheim — but won his 2nd straight outing and has 3 QS in 4 tries.

@Diamondbacks 1, Dodgers 0: Saturday’s Giant-tipping rally was nice and all, but LA has been blanked on 5 hits in both games since then, without ever getting 2 hits in an inning. Tuesday’s tormentor was Ian Kennedy, who has spearheaded 6 wins in 7 starts vs. LA in the last 2 years. The leading victim was Clayton Kershaw, whose first taste of 1-0 defeat was made more bitter by the E6 in the 7th that led to the game’s lone run.

  • Brad Ziegler relieved Kennedy in the 8th with the tying run on 1st and induced a 3-6-3 GDP to end the frame. Ziegler’s 17 GDPs rank 8th in the NL, even though he has just 58.2 IP. The only other season of 16+ GIDP in 60 IP or less was … Ziegler’s rookie year, 2008 (20 GDP, 59.2 IP).
  • Yo, Adrian — that pitch is a strike all day long. The Big Pickup still hasn’t homered since his first swing in Dodger blue.
  • I gotchyer ‘defensive liability’ right heah,” says Jason Kubel.
  • Nice setup and throw by Kemp, but don’t even try to tell me that Dan Iassogna saw the play. Can any of you umps explain his last-second change of position?
  • The Snakes have won 16 games by 1-0 in their history, four of them against LA.
  • It was the 6th game this year with no earned runs, all since Aug. 21 and 4 since Sept. 5.

@Padres 6, Cardinals 4: St. Louis nicked Edinson Volquez in the 2nd and 3rd, but missed many chances at bigger innings (1-14 with RISP), while the Friars focused their ministrations on a 5-run 4th. Luke Gregerson came on with 1 out in the 8th and the tying run on 1st and recorded 5 outs for the save.

  • “Pay it forward?” Last year, St. Louis profited from Atlanta’s 10-20 finish, making up a 10.5-game gap to snag the wild card on the final night. This year’s Cards are doing what they can to help those less fortunate, dropping 10 of 14 to keep free-falling LA and Pittsburgh in the race (1 GB and 2.5 GB), while opening doors long thought barred to Milwaukee and Philly (both 4 GB).
  • Maybe they should’ve shut *him* down at 160 IP? After reeling off 5 straight August wins (1.47 ERA), Wainwright has lost 3 in a row, yielding 16 runs in 13.2 IP.
  • Everybody talks about STL’s one-run record (17-23), but they’re now 6-14 in games decided by 2 runs.
  • Gregerson got the 15th save of exactly 5 outs in MLB this year; that would tie last year’s low for the expansion era.
  • Volquez is the first pitcher since 2009 with 100+ walks in a season.

@Red Sox 4, Yankees 3: I dare not say much about this game — I don’t want to risk a Schadenfreudian slip.

  • Every Yankee team from 1918-2011 won at least 10 games in which they hit no HRs; this year’s model is 4-22 in such games. (Baltimore is 9-28, but nobody was talking about that yesterday as the O’s slipped back into 1st place.)
  • Joe Girardi used pinch-runners on 1st base with 1 out in both the 8th and 9th. The first was erased on a DP, the second on a CS.
  • There was a time when you wouldn’t dream of stealing with A-Rod up. But I guess  Eduardo Nunez didn’t expect to be the 2nd guy thrown out in 22 tries against Ryan Lavarnway.
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no statistician but
no statistician but
12 years ago

JA:

This is hardly news, but the Yankees are too old. A bunch of old sluggers, matched with a group of pitchers, mostly old, who aren’t at the top of their game either. If they don’t continue their slide in the division, it will almost certainly be because Baltimore and Tampa Bay have their weaknesses come home to them as well. When I look at the standings in the AL, I’m struck by the number of teams—6—with almost identical W-L records, something rare for this late in the season. Parity seems to be the rule, a parity of not-quite-mediocrity.

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago

I think it’s fair to say that the Rangers are a notch above everybody else. I fully expect them to take the whole shebang this year.

K&J
K&J
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

Uh, you know, nothing fair about that statement.

Nats and Reds hold better (far better) records.

The A’s are charging up like demons in the division. I don’t have the numbers, but I’m certain the A’s have a better record than the Rangers since the All-Star break.

The Rangers may be baseball’s answer the the Buffalo Bills.

tag
tag
12 years ago
Reply to  K&J

Yeah, I kinda agree. The Rangers are well constructed for the regular season. Their pitching is good enough, and they’re going to hit enough two-run doubles and three-run homers to win a good number of games. But as we’ve seen the past two years they might be doomed to failure in the postseason.

K&J
K&J
12 years ago
Reply to  K&J

Ooops, “far better” records for the Nats & Reds was way overstating it. My bad.

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  K&J

Well, nsb’s original comment, and my “notch above everyone else” response, were both w.r.t. the American League.

As for the WS, the Rangers have two straight years of experience there, which is most certainly an advantage for them, whereas very few of the Nats or Reds players have ever even been in a playoff game, let alone a WS.

And since you are a fan of luck-based arguments tag, I find it hard to follow your argument that the Rangers previous two years’ experience somehow works against them.

tag
tag
12 years ago
Reply to  K&J

Jim,

Recent WS have shown that having two dominating starters and good hitting are the key to winning a short series. There are of course other ways to win, but I don’t see the Rangers as having enough pitching. Experience is great but a couple guys with low ERAs and high K/BB ratios are better.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago

John: Do you mind telling me how you ran the PI for fewest games won by a team with no home runs? I ran it and got different results from yours.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I got those same results.

tag
tag
12 years ago

Damn, John, everyday you come up with some quality coinage, even cross culturally and in multiple languages. Schadenfreudian slip! Awesome. Also, I’ve been keeping tabs: the Angels, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, EFG, HIJK… – basically every team except the one whose nickname begins with O has had their one-run games decided the way they’re supposed to be: by blind luck. (I loved how the Braves won 1-0 when the opposing pitcher failed to catch the return toss from his catcher: talk about random.) Jim definitely has some major voodoo going on with regard to the Orange Birds’ record in that department.… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  tag

No voodoo or goober dust tag, just simple binomial probability models. And I have to disagree with your tab-keeping (although I will check the records again), because the last time I checked, the other teams who were doing well in 1-r games at the time the O’s were 19-6, have continued to do so, the Indians and Giants coming immediately to mind. Why you are so attached to this luck argument I don’t know, but such an argument is much more akin to voodoo than any of the arguments I’ve presented to date. I mean, certainly you don’t ascribe the… Read more »

tag
tag
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

Jim, I guess I just don’t see the applicability of binomial probability models in this instance. Now I obviously could be wrong. It’s clear to me when something can only be heads or tails that bpm fit. But baseball games don’t work that way. Let’s look at Baltimore’s situation in particular. I recently wrote on another thread that I found a rough breakdown of their first 29 one-run games (they are I think two-and-one or in one-run games since then). The wins: 8 times the O’s had a multi-run lead by the middle innings but allowed various numbers of later-inning… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  tag

tag, you’re re-treading old ground with some of this stuff. In no particular order: 1. Whether a team is successful at winning non 1-r games does not directly address the question of whether they are skilled at winning 1-r games, strictly speaking, even if a correlation is reasonable to expect: it’s not the question at hand. However, if we want to bring that point into the discussion…if you would argue that teams are using skill to win games overall (and lack thereof to lose them), why would you not also believe they are doing so in a subset (i.e. 1-r)… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  tag

” It’s clear to me when something can only be heads or tails that bpm fit. But baseball games don’t work that way.” Yes, they do! You can either win them, or you can lose them; two possible results, exactly like flipping a coin, and binomial models are designed for exactly this kind of process. You are confusing possible outcomes with the ability to explain the causes of those possible outcomes. And furthermore results observed from repeatedly flipping a coin are not truly “random” either, in the common sense of what is meant by that term. It’s just that we… Read more »

tag
tag
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

Jim, the Royals have been bad in one-run games the last 20 years because they’ve been bad in all games. The “luck hypothesis” says that good teams generally win more one-run games than bad teams but that is not necessarily the case, and they tend not to win one-run games at nearly the same rate that they win games with 3+ or 5+ or 10+ run margins. In fact, as winning margins approach a single run, “luck” plays more and more of a role in the game’s outcome – so much so that the results of one-run games don’t exhibit… Read more »

Jameson
Jameson
12 years ago

Does anyone know what happened to the Yankees Mt. Rushmore post?

Ed
Ed
12 years ago

And the O’s do it again, winning yet another one run game, this time 3-2 in 14 innings. After failing to score with the bases loaded and no one out in the bottom of the 13th, the O’s scored in the bottom of the 14th after two were out and none on. Jones walked on a 3-2 pitch, then Chavez and Machado singled.

Lynchburg Realtors
10 years ago

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