In 2011, there were five shortstops in the majors who topped 4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), using Baseball-Reference’s formula:

Troy Tulowitzki 5.6 WAR
Asdrubal Cabrera 4.8
Jose Reyes 4.7
Yunel Escobar 4.4
J.J. Hardy 4.2

In the context of recent major league baseball, that was a perfectly normal number of shortstops to be in the 4.0 WAR and over range.  Indeed, over the past fifteen full seasons, there have been 82 player-seasons by shortstops of 4 or more WAR, an average of about 5.5 such player-seasons a year.  There have  been at least four shortstops to reach at least 4 WAR in each of the past 15 seasons, and in 2006 there were actually nine guys at short who  reached 4 WAR.  So how are major league shortstops doing in 2012 in this respect?  The answer after the jump.
Well, there is not a single shortstop in the majors right now who is at or on pace for 4 or more WAR in 2012.  Here are the top 2012 WAR numbers by shortstops right now (shortstops are defined for purposes of this post as guys who played at least half their games during the season at short):

Erick Aybar 3.4
Elvis Andrus, Brendan Ryan and Ian Desmond 3.1
J.J. Hardy 3.0
Alcides Escobar and Jose Reyes 2.9
Starlin Castro and Asdrubal Cabrera 2.8
Jimmy Rollins and Yunel Escobar 2.6

Aybar has played in 131 games this season, and with 13 games left in the regular season for the Angels, he’s on pace to finish with a WAR around 3.7 or 3.8.  It is very possible Erick, or any of the others on the list above, could have a hot last two weeks of the season and reach the 4.0 level. But the days remaining for anybody to get there are dwindling.

It would be amazing if not one shortstop makes it to 4 WAR in 2012.  At least one shortstop has had 4 or more WAR, in every season since 1901. That includes even 1994, when the season was ended by the players’ strike on August 11, with a third of the schedule remaining unplayed (shortstop John Valentin had a 4.1 WAR total in 1994 despite the truncated season).  There have only been a small number of years since 1901 in which only one shortstop reached the 4 WAR level: 1973 and 1977 (Bert Campaneris was the only 4+ WAR SS in those seasons), 1959 and 1961 (Ernie Banks was the sole guy in those two years), 1932 (Joe Cronin), 1927 and 1929 (Travis Jackson), and 1923 (Joe Sewell). Other than that, there have always been at least two guys playing short getting to the 4 or more WAR level, and usually more than two. Over the whole 111 seasons from 1901 through 2011, there have been an average of about 3.6 shortstops per season reaching the 4 WAR or more level.

As we staring at the strong possibility that not one shortstop will reach a 4 WAR in 2012, the question arises: What’s going on here? Are we merely seeing a one-year fluke?  Certainly the injury-absence of Troy Tulowitzki, the most reliable producer of high WAR numbers among current shortstops, plays a role.  But injuries happen every season, and in the past we’ve always ended up with at least one 4+ WAR shortstops, and usually several more than one, regardless of injuries.  Is there an overall downward trend developing in high-level talent at short?  Is there some aspect of the WAR measurement itself that is underestimating this year’s crop of shortstops?  Will one or more of the 2012 shortstops step on the gas and get to that 4.0 level in these last two weeks — allowing this class to avoid becoming the first without a 4.0+ WAR guy since the 19th century?