Ryan Vogelsong’s statistically odd 2011 and 2012 |

Check out some of Ryan Vogelsong’s stats in 2011 and 2012:

Stat     2011     2012
G         30       30
IP       179.2    184.2
H        164      169
HR        15       17
BB        61       61
SO       139      151
WHIP       1.25     1.24

The numbers above are, for all intents and purposes, identical. But there’s one big difference: in 2011, he allowed 54 earned runs, whereas in 2012 he’s allowed 71. Those translate into seasonal ERAs of 2.71 (2011) and 3.46 (2012), and ERA+s of 129 in 2011 and 101 in 2012.

Why has a guy who has seemingly performed exactly the same on the mound allowed such different amounts of earned runs?

Let’s dig in to find out…

A big part of it is how Vogelsong has performed with runners in scoring position. With RISP in 2011, he allowed a slash line of .200/.320/.290 and 7 extra-base hits in 179 plate appearances. With RISP in 2012, he’s allowed a slash line of .222/.335/.333 and 12 extra-base hits in 190 plate appearances. The extra hits, pretty much all of the extra-base variety, led to 6 more earned runs so far in 2012.

It turns out that Vogelsong’s pitching with the bases empty is also worse in 2012. His BA allowed and OBP allowed are virtually identical between 2011 and 2012, but his SLG allowed is up from .368 to .400, over more than 400 plate appearances in each season. His total number of extra-base hits allowed in 2011 was 28 in 435 PAs, whereas in 2012 it’s been 38 in 454 plate appearances.

Allowed so many more guys extra bases means fewer double-play opportunities and more runners in scoring position.

Overall, Vogelsong is allowing fewer singles and more extra-base hits, and that’s been the difference in his runs allowed total.

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Doug

12 years ago

Vogelsong may be more prone to long hits this year than last, but two seasons over 100 ERA+ are still a marked improvement over prior seasons with a previous best of 95 and all other seasons far below that.

Interesting stuff Andy. We’d be having a very different conversation had Vogelsong’s form not completely fallen off a couple of months ago. On August 8th Vogelsong’s ERA was a (I believe) league-leading 2.27. 7 starts, 29.2 IP and 34 ER later and we have the current state of affairs. Which is a shame, because he has gone from having an incredible season to a barely league-average one. Given his good form in his last two starts though, it’ll be interesting to see who SF plump for in their postseason starting rotation. My gut says they’ll bin off Zito to relief… Read more »

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John Autin

Good stuff, Andy. A couple other points: – Vogelsong actually has a better QS% this year (22 of 30) than last (19 of 28). – The objective difference in his performance may be smaller than the ERAs suggest. For one, he allowed 8 UER last year, just 4 this year. Two, he was very fortunate last year with bequeathed runners, with just 2 of 13 scoring; this year, 6 of 14. If you measure all runs (not ER) and deduct the bequeathed who scored, his RA was 3.01 last year, 3.36 this year. The 0.35 difference of those is less… Read more »

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Andy

Reply to John Autin

JA, I’ve seen that the term “bequeathed runners” is now used in a semi-official capacity on a number of websites–I feel like you coined that term yourself several years back–is that true?

Reply to Andy

Andy, I wish I could take credit for that coinage, but no — I merely picked it up from somewhere. It’s used on B-R now.