Derek Jeter will finish between 3rd and 5th all-time in hits

Last night, Derek Jeter tied Willie Mays for 11th on the all-time hit list:

1.	Pete Rose           4256
2.	Ty Cobb+            4189
3.	Hank Aaron          3771
4.	Stan Musial         3630
5.	Tris Speaker        3514
6.	Cap Anson           3435
7.	Honus Wagner        3420
8.	Carl Yastrzemski    3419
9.	Paul Molitor 	    3319
10.	Eddie Collins       3315
11.	Derek  Jeter 	    3283
 	Willie  Mays        3283

How high might Jeter finish on the all-time list?

Well, for starters, Jeter is signed through the 2013 season with a player option for 2014. So let’s assume he plays 2 more years, and let’s figure that some injuries derail him a bit and he plays in 250 games out of  a possible 324. Let’s also assume that he bats .290 and hits in similar spots in the lineup as the last few years.

Jeter has averaged 4.08 at-bats per game played. Over 2009-2012, Jeter has averaged 4.20 at-bats per game played, so in these next 250 hypothetical games we can expect 1051 a-bats. At a .290 batting average, that would be another 305 hits.

Also, tack on another projected 26 hits for the remainder of 2012.

That would take Jeter to a total of 3609, good for 5th all-time. This seems quite likely, if only because I suspect he’s quite likely to get 250 more games even if that extends beyond the next 2 years.

After these next 2 years, Jeter will be 40 and it’s really hard to guess if he’ll play more. He has always played through injuries and it’s not hard to imagine him continuing to play even as it gets quite difficult after age 40. Could he, perhaps,. squeeze out another 250 games after the first hypothetical set of 250? Let’s say he can, but that he bats a little less frequently (lower in the order) and at only a .270 clip. With just 4 at-bats per game and a .270 average, those final 250 games would produce 270 hits. That would push his career total to 3879.

A total of 3879 would be good for 3rd, but a pretty far cry from second place Ty Cobb, who accumulated 310 more hits than where we hypothetically have Jeter. And he’d be 42 at this point. So I don’t see him getting any higher than 3rd.

Let’s now imagine the best-case scenario: Jeter plays 4 more years, and let’s just say he gets 200 hits per year. Toss in the 26 more for 2012, and that’s 4108. At that point, he’s 81 shy of second-place Cobb.

So, pretty much any way you slice it, Jeter is likely to finish between 3rd place and 5th place all-time in hits.

 

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John Nacca
John Nacca
12 years ago

Makes Rose’s total all the more incredible. I know Rose hung on until he was barely watchable, but Jeter has been sooooo consistent with the games played per year, as well as not having any MAJOR injuries (the ones where you only play about 30-50 games in a season). I also highly doubt Jeter pulls a Rose (or Omar Vizquel for that matter) and plays until he is 44 or so. If he did, and put up even passable numbers (like the .270 or so comment above), then Rose’s record would be in some sort of jeopardy. I just don’t… Read more »

Joseph
Joseph
12 years ago
Reply to  John Nacca

Even if Jeter finished this season with 3,300, and gets as many hits as Rose age 39-45 (884), he would still be short of Cobb and Rose. Not by much, but still short. Rose had 497 of those hits 39-41. That’s 165.6 hits per year, and one of them was strike-shortened. Andy’s got Jeter projected at about 143 hits per year for the next three years, I think. That may be correct–who knows. Who would have expected Rose to average 166 hits per season from age 39 to 41? I do not think anyone predicted Jeter having 195 hits this… Read more »

Doug
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  John Nacca

Plugging in an estimated 220 hits for Jeter this season, Favorite Toy projects 3690 hits, and a 33% chance to pass Aaron for 3rd place.

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
12 years ago

So you’re guaranteeing that Jeter gets 232 more hits? I’d take the over as well, but it presumes he stays healthy and playable through the rest of the contract, and not many shortstops have been effective at that age.

Mike L
Mike L
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

I’m not so sure about Jeter continuing if he’s injured and can’t play the 250 games. He’s a very proud guy, and there’s his contract to deal with. He gets another 17M next year, and then there’s a odd-ball option for 2014 (either $3M or $8M). The Yankees stated plan is to be under the threshold for 2014. They will probably need his salary to be on the smaller side, and, given his age, it’s hard to see how they would convert what he has right now into a three year deal.

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

That’s an interesting point, but if Jeter maintains current course and speed (meaning keeps hitting like he is now), I fully expect him to become a free agent after next season, 2013, take the $3M buy out, and then enter into negotiations on another contract with the team. There’s no reason he wouldn’t. The contract was constructed guaranteeing Jeter at least $8M in 2014, even if he collapsed as a hitter. That’s why it’s there. Insurance for Jeter. If he made a strong comeback, as he believed he would and so far has, then he can trigger the $3M buyout… Read more »

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

At the company holiday party at that K of C in Dubuque, right?

Tmckelv
Tmckelv
12 years ago

Whenever Jeter gets a hit, the YES network shows the graphic of how he is doing on the career list. Like last night they showed he tied Mays. But on their list Mays and Jeter are tied for 10th place. Anson is not in the top 10 on YES’s list. My guess is they (I believe the network references ELIAS) don’t include the National Association years for Anson. Does anyone know for sure if that is the case?

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  Tmckelv

The YES Network does use Elias, as does MLB. It’s the official stat service of MLB. Similar, he passed by Nap Lajoie at 3242, but YES and other news outlets didn’t recognize him passing Lajoie until 3252, since that’s the number Elias recognizes. It’s kind of an issue when there’s a gap between the stats available to fans and what MLB recognizes as the official statistics. I can think of no other HOF-class player whose numbers have fluctuated the most than Cap Anson, whose reported hits cap is at times as much as 400+ hits, yet he hasn’t played a… Read more »

Tmckelv
Tmckelv
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

I was wondering what you meant by #4 when yours was the only picture 🙂

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Darn it! I was really savoring the non-sequitur.

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

I’ve learned my lesson about putting words in the boss’s mouth.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago

Some unordered thoughts: — From age 29 through 35, the cumulative hit totals for Rose and Jeter were never more than 19 hits apart. Jeter was ahead at every year through age 31, and again through 33, but Rose pulled ahead through 34 and has stayed ahead. — Is Jeter the most consistent hit-accumulator in the 3,000 hit club? Discounting his 15-game debut, Jeter has has between 156 and 219 hits for 17 straight years. Aaron was extremely steady, but he had at least one season both above and below Jeter’s bounds within his first 17 full years. Ditto Musial,… Read more »

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I’d say no, he isn’t. If you take out the strike years of 1981, 1994, and 1995, Eddie Murray accumulated between 144 and 184 hits for seventeen straight years, a narrower range than Jeter by 23. Strike years: 111 hits in 91 games in 1981, 110 hits in 108 games in 1994, and 141 in 113 games in ’95.

The streak ended for Murray in his final season, 37 hits at age 41.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Good point, b — how could I overlook the most famously consistent HOFer? Steady Eddie, indeed.

BTW, Murray’s season high of 186 hits is 2nd-lowest among the 28 members of the 3,000 hit club. Rickey’s 179 is the lowest.

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Thanks, John. Eddie also rattled off 20 straight years of 75+ RBI (including the strike years!), an MLB record. Henry Aaron knocked in 69 RBI his rookie year, then rattled off 19 straight 75+ RBI years himself, good for second place.

Howard
Howard
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

How’s this for consistency?: Eddie Murray had two season in which he had 174 hits and 27 HRs in 610 ABs and they were fifteen seasons apart.

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Howard

Nice, Howard. One more Steady Eddie nugget and I promise I’ll stop. How about 20 straight years of 20+ doubles? Murray and Tris Speaker both hold that record.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Howard

How about Murray’s OPS+ during the ’81-84 seasons? 156, 156, 156, 157.

birtelcom
Editor
12 years ago

As good sabermetric citizens, perhaps we should be more interested in Jeter’s place in the career Times On Base list, which also includes walks (and times reached base on an error). Career Hits is so last-century. Derek is 16th on the Times on Base list with 4,660. He needs 19 more TOB to catch Biggio at 15th and 300 to catch Mays and tie for the 10th spot. He would need 1,509 more TOB to take the all-time #1 spot from Rose (who accumulated 6,168 TOB in his “Tales of the Genji”-length career). The single-season record for TOB is 382,… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Gotta wonder where he stands on the most egregiously under-appreciated statistic in baseball also, runs scored.

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

That reminds me of John Madden once explaining that the reason touchdowns were better than field goals was that touchdowns were worth 7 points but field goals were only worth 3.

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Oops hold on, did I say runs there? My bad. What I actually meant was BABIP per opposing FIP, normalized for park effect, steroid use, neap tides and solar flares.

Joseph
Joseph
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

There are calculations in WAR that are based on estimations. I agree with you that some baseball expert should make an estimate based on PEDs and factor that into the complex stats like BABIP, R9avg, and other stats. Great idea.

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

I think you’d have better success factoring in the neap tides actually. Certainly the data is a lot better.

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Before we get started here this morning, I’d like to take this opportunity to welcome everyone to the Madden and Morgan Institute for Advanced Analysis of Complex Sports Stuff…

Paul E
Paul E
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

Jim B:
Don’t forget charter member Sargeant Obvious – Gary Matthews of the Phillies broadcast team. “Yes, he swung hard, you want to do that, make good contact, and drive the ball. Of course, it’s a lot easier when he swings at strikes.”
Thank you for the insight, Sarge

birtelcom
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

D.J. tied Mel Ott for 12th place on the career Runs Scored list on Tuesday this week and then passed Ott on Wednesday. He needs 29 more Runs Scored to pass Lou Gehrig for 10th place. He needs 140 more to reach 2,000 Runs Scored — only 7 guys have reached that number, although A-Rod is at 1,888 and may get there before Derek.

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

One more run from A-Rod and he passes Gehrig for most runs scored thru age 36 at 1,889. So he’s leading the pack historically, although he’s really slowed down in recent years. Let’s give him 1900 runs after this year. He’d be 395 behind Rickey Henderson for the all-time mark. That would give him a 74 run, 120 game average for his last four seasons. If A-Rod could only stay a little healthier than that and squeeze out a couple 140-game seasons, he could possibly put up five more 80 run seasons (on average) and set the all-time mark. But… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

Runs Scored is simply the flip side of RBI, with similar (but complementary) weaknesses as an individual stat to RBI. Scoring runs is (except of course for the one run scored by a home run hitter) a team effort, the result of a multi-batter sequence of events. The challenge of any seriously evaluative hitting stat is to assign a fair portion of the run-scoring sequence to each guy who contributed. Runs Scored and RBI make no serious effort at that, they just dump the entire credit for the run scoring sequence on the first guy in the sequence (Runs Scored)… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I think your argument depends to a great degree on the type of hitters you have and your general offensive philosophy. If you’re a power-oriented team that doesn’t run, runs scored by an individual is +/- a reflection of OBP. If you’re the 1980 Montreal Expos, whole ‘nother story.

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I always thought there should be a stat called “times in scoring position”. Just count the number of times the player gets in scoring position on their own, 2B + 3B + HR + SB of 2nd. Probably should include advancing to 2nd on PBs too but I didnt here. The leaders in TISP for the AL are: 96 Trout 84 Rios 79 Pujols 75 Adam Jones 74 Encarnacion 74 Hamilton 74 Miguel Cabrera 72 Alex Gordon 72 Cano 70 Choo 66 Pedroia 65 Beltre 63 De Aza 60 Alcides Escobar The players benefiting most from the batters behind them,… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  topper009

Following up on Topper’s lead, I think the general point is that we need a statistic that does a better job of properly crediting each bag attained.

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Birtelcom, I agree with you to a point. I’d be hesitant to use runs to evaluate a player’s individual success, but they’re a better measure than RBI becuase (1)a player can only score one run per plate appearance, so there’s less team context embedded, and (2)a player who steals a base or takes an extra base on a subsequent batter’s hit did more to “earn” his own run than the guy who knocked him in did to “earn” his RBI. As Topper’s TISP list indicates, Trout scores some runs because he hits first in a decent lineup, but he scores… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Bryan O'Connor

I’m not sure I agree about Runs Scored being better than RBI in this sense. A home run is on average worth more than one run to the hitter’s team, because there will frequently be men on base when the homer is hit. But the homer will only ever produce one Run Scored for the hitter. It’s the reverse problem to the one you identify. And I’m not sure why a guy who steals second does more to “earn” his run scored than a guy who hits a double with two outs and a man on first (instead of, say,… Read more »

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Bryan O'Connor

Re: #39, if we’re evaluating the relative roles of the individual scorer and the individual batter-in, let’s start by assuming that only four “batted bases” (triple+single/double+double/single+single+doubl, etc.) equal one run. In this case, the scorer and the batter-in are equally responsible for each individual run, assuming they both doubled or both singled, sandwiched around someone else’s double. Types of hits (singles vs. doubles vs. triples) certainly affect which player is more responsible for the run in an individual case, but they’re irrelevant to the general argument as to whether all scorers are more responsible for runs than all batters-in. The… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Bryan O'Connor

I tried to actually test this question out, and the first tests suggest you are correct in arguing that as between Runs and RBI, Runs does a somewhat better job than RBI, on average, of measuring individual offensive contribution. I started with the assumption that b-ref’s Runs Created does a comparatively careful and accurate job of allocating offensive value where it belongs. With that assumption, we can then see how well Runs and RBI each correlate to Runs Created. I ran the CORREL function in Excel for all an array that covered all the guys in the majors with at… Read more »

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Bryan O'Connor

birtelcom, I love that you tested this question. I think the stronger correlation between runs scored and runs created speaks to the multiple RBI opportunity part of my theory, and to the stolen base portion of the baserunning part of my theory. If I’m not mistaken, b-r does not include the extra bases taken component of baserunning in runs created, so that’s an element of individuality in runs scored that isn’t accounted for in your study. As for R+RBI, I bet it correlates even more strongly to runs created if you subtract home runs, but again, we’re only trying to… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago

With 966 multi-hit games Jeter is in 5th place all-time behind Rose (1225), Musial (1059), Aaron (1046) and Molitor (967) for the game-searchable era.

Jimbo
Jimbo
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Not to mention, he;s played his entire career for a top notch offensive team, something not many players get to do.

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
12 years ago

I’m having a helluva time figuring out how to get MLB records *by team* at BR.com if anybody can help me on that. Thanks.

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  topper009

Sorry, what I meant there was MLB records aggregated by team (as opposed to individuals). That link gives me team-specifc totals, by year.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

Is this the sort of thing you’re looking for:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/batteam.shtml

(columns are sortable by clicking on the column header)

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

No, that’s not it either. I mean, for any statistic of interest, a ranking of the team totals, over all seasons in the database.

E.g. the team stolen base leaders, by season.

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Ok, not sure on that. It would require what I think is the most needed addition to the PI, being able to search for “leader” instead of just being greater than or equal to a certain number.

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

I guess you could say we need professional help…

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

If you really want to and have a PI subscription you could go to player batting, select single seasons, select the team you want and then set the stat you want low enough that it will find every season leader and sort by date.

So for Yankees SB leaders you would probably have to set the threshold to like 20 or 25 and then sort out by all the times when multiple players had more than that in a given year

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

My fault topper, I really didn’t word what I was trying to get well at all.

What I was after was the seasonal total (or average depending on the type of statistic) for each team, by year. For example team stolen base totals, by year, for every team over some defined set of years. Voomo was on the right track and see my other note below.

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

DO mean records like how many wins do the Yankees have against the Red Sox? Not sure on that one.

If you mean stat records by team you could go here and sort by R, H, AB, HR, BA, ERA

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

Jim, that’s been driving me nuts for weeks, too.
Finally gave in and went to fangraphs.
Actually pretty easy there.

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

To get a list of the Yankees SB leaders for each season? I don’t think you can do that at fangraphs either.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Andy is fishing for more nastygrams.
___________

Fangraphs
Leaders Tab
Team Stats
Adjust the starting year at “multiple seasons”
…you’re there.

Easy, but linking from that page isn’t as fluid as b-r

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

that shows you the franchise total of SBs etc, not the team leader for each season

Doug
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

If you select multiple seasons, and then click Split Seasons, you can get the top player each season.

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Still doesnt work, there is no way to simply get the list of the player with the most SBs each season for the Yankees in chronological order. Meaning:
2012 Rodriguez 12
2011 Gardner 49
2010 Gardner 47
2009 Jeter 30
etc

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

thanks Voomo Took me a few minutes at FanGraphs, but I did get it. Couple of additional points: 1. You have to check the “Split Seasons” check box to get the totals by team by year instead of just aggregated over all years 2. Only about a dozen or so statistics are returned. If you want more than those (including e.g. stolen bases) you have to go to the bottom of the page, choose the satistic of interest from the box at the left, move it into the box to the right, and then click “Create Custom Table”. 3. You… Read more »

Doug
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Agree, Topper, it doesn’t give you exactly that list, but if you sort by the statistic of interest and don’t have too many years in the data, it’s pretty easy to pick off the yearly leaders.

birtelcom
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

If you have a PI subscription you can get the same list by using the Batting Season Finder, checking the Find Season Totals button, and limiting the search to the team you want, right? Either way, you get a list where you have to eyeball each season leader, or else export to a spreadsheet and then do a two-priority sort, first by year and then by the stat you are interested in. And in Excel, if you want the result to be even easier to use, you can click on the Year column, then click on Data, Advanced Filter and… Read more »

Jim Bouldin
Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

see 61 above; there was a miscomm. in what I was after–I didn’t want to limit it to particular teams.

Doug
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

One other source for yearly team leaders is in B-Ref (I just found this). Go to the Franchise Encyclopedia page for the team of interest and click Leaders, Batting or Pitching. On that page you can select either the top 10 or top 50 team leaders and see the individual season leader (10 or 50 years) plus the career leaders (10 or 50 players) for a whole whack of different statistics. One caveat: unlike most tables in B-R, the ones on these pages aren’t sortable (at least from my browser), so have to cut and paste to sort by year.… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Jim: It’s my turn. Here’s what I think you mean. If you are a PI subscriber (and if you do it for a month it’s only $6) then go to Game Finders, Team Batting. Suppose you want the AL team stats for 1950. Click on Find Teams with Most Matching Games in a Season. Enter 1950 to 1950 for the year. Click on AL only. Set PA => 1. Click Get Report and you get a listing of all the 1950 AL team stats by each team. For multiple years enter the desired years and when the results come up… Read more »

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Doug from your link I see Mike Trout has more WAR this year than the previous two Halo MVP winners combined
Vlad 5.4 (2004)
D Baylor 3.5 (1979)

birtelcom
Editor
12 years ago

In a similar vein, Jeter is 6th all-time with 2,441 career singles (72 behind Willie Keeler who holds the fifth spot). Jeter also leads the majors with 150 singles this season, far ahead of the 126 singles by Marco Scutaro and Elvis Andrus, who are tied for second in this category in 2012. Derek was previously the major league leader in singles over a full season back fourteen years ago, in 1998.

And no, I am not counting Mariah Carey, Minka Kelly, etc. among Derek’s career singles.

Jimbo
Jimbo
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I’m guessing Jeter would’ve let the league in singles and hits several more times if not for a guy name Ichiro who just excelled for 10 years doing those 2 exact things.

Doug
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

I see that when Ichiro had his 262 hit season, it included 225 singles, breaking Willie Keeler’s mark of 206, a record that had stood for 106 years.

Guess the only record that has stood longer is Hugh Duffy’s .440 (or .438 when I was growing up) – 118 years and counting. It was Duffy’s only .400 season, and 77 points higher than his second best mark, set the preceding year.

Dave
Dave
12 years ago

Well, as long as he continues taking HGH or whatever he’s on, who knows how high he’ll get?

kds
kds
12 years ago

If Jetes continues his H/gm and plays all the remaining games he will not only lead the league in hits but also set a personal record at age 38. Of course how well he has done this year and how well he does next year will have a great effect on his future opportunities. He has a 120 OPS+ so far this year. (Career 118.) Even combined with his usual bad defense he is an above average player. (He was not the last 2 years.)