U.S.S. Colorado is pitching in choppy seas

It’s no secret that the 2012 Rockies have had a ton of bad luck (and bad everything else) in their pitching staff; some would say they’ve already capsized. Here’s a look at some historic aspects of their struggle.

Every 2012 MLB team but Colorado has at least one pitcher with at least 128 innings, and another with 100+ innings. The Rockies have none with 100. Their leader has 90.2 IP — but that’s Jeremy Guthrie, now with KC. Their #2 man has 84.2 IP — but that’s Christian Friedrich, who hasn’t pitched in 3 weeks and recently had a CT scan that revealed a vertebrae stress fracture.

So Colorado’s active IP leaders are starter Jeff Francis and reliever Josh Roenicke, both at 72.2 IP. At their current pace, neither will reach 100 IP this year.

But maybe that’s unfair to Francis, whose season debut was June 9. If we project him forward at the same rate he’s compiled per team-game since then, he’ll get another 48.1 IP, which would take him to 121 for the season. On the other hand, he has a 6.07 ERA and no contract beyond this year, and September call-ups are 10 days off. (Then again, do they have any prospects who haven’t yet been pressed into service?)

In any case, it’s a pretty safe bet that no Rockies pitcher will log 128 innings this year.

  • Except for the 2012 Rockies, every other team in MLB history that played the full league schedule had at least one pitcher with 128+ IP, including all other 2012 teams. That includes the 19th century, and the seasons shortened by strike or by war.

(Five 19th-century teams — the 1891 Milwaukee Brewers of the American Association and 4 teams of the 1884 Union Association — played only a fraction of the league schedule and had no such pitcher. Also, the UA was not really a major league, but that’s another matter.)

Incidentally, I used 128 IP because that’s the current total of Minnesota’s leader, Scott Diamond. Every other team had a pitcher with at least 130 IP, and Diamond presumably will join them.

But wait, there’s more:

No Rocky has thrown a complete game, and with their current experimental 85-pitch limit, nobody is likely to do so. That’s not unique in itself; four previous teams had no CG, plus this year’s Cubs and Brewers don’t have one yet. But: No 2012 Rocky has gone past 7 innings so far, and again, their current policy almost rules it out; their last 7 IP start was on June 4, and nobody’s gone beyond 6 IP in 6 weeks.

  • Except for the 2012 Rockies, every other team in MLB history had at least one 8-inning start, including all other 2012 teams.

One more thing: Their current Wins leader is reliever Rex Brothers, with 7. The leading total among their starters is 5, by Friedrich — but again, he seems unlikely to advance that mark. That leaves Francis, who has 4 wins. Where he’ll end up is anyone’s guess, but the Rockies have averaged one SP win per week since the All-Star break; Francis hasn’t won more than 6 since 2007; and there’s that 6.07 ERA. And no other active Rocky has more than 2 wins as a starter.

  • Except for the 2012 Rockies, every other MLB team since 1901 had at least one pitcher with 15+ starts and 6+ wins, including all other 2012 teams.

So, yeah, it’s been a rough year all around for Colorado pitchers, not to mention the coaching staff and the bullpen catchers. Management deserves credit for trying something different, because hardly anyone ever tries anything different these days, and why the hell not? But it probably will only deepen their impression on the history books.

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Hartvig
Hartvig
12 years ago

Wow. I hadn’t paid much attention to Colorado this season at all.

Just at random, I looked at the 1969 Minnesota Twins. Three starters with over 240 IP’s and 3 RELIEVERS with over 110 IP’s.

They went 97-65.

Yet for some reason Colorado feels they need 2 LOOGY’s in the bullpen. Each, of course, averaging less than a inning per outing.

I’m thinking maybe Jamie Moyer was their best pitcher, after all.

Brent
Brent
12 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

So this issue has bothered me for a while. I will try to elucidate my thoughts, and hopefully they will make sense. Until the last 20 years or so, there were two, and really only two, factors to consider for pitcher usage. One was that you should get the most out of your best pitchers. Two was prevention of short term and long term injury to the pitchers. To put it in economic (or maybe mechanical) terms, you wanted to use your best assets as much as possible without wearing them out. This led to a balance between those two… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Something else that teams have gotten away from is using starters as specialty relievers on their mid-week ‘throwing’ day.

brp
brp
12 years ago
Reply to  Brent

Amen. So sick of seeing 12 and 13 pitchers on a team… 11 should be more than enough for any situation.

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Brent

Re: 55 innings a year. Totally agree, Brent. Elite relievers, or almost-elite ones, are very effective pitchers. I remember a Tom Tango study where he said that there is no definable difference between a one-inning and a two-inning stint as far as effectiveness. You don’t begin to see a downgrade in reliever performance until the third inning of work. There could be a lot of bias there, however, as the only relievers likely to go 2+ innings anymore are mop-up guys. Everyone in baseball seemed to have a cow last year when the Braves pitched Jonny Venters almost 80 IP… Read more »

Dave V.
Dave V.
12 years ago

Double wow. I hadn’t paid much attention to Colorado this year either (once I went to Coors Field last year for a game, they fell off of my radar). I knew their pitching has been bad this year but I didn’t realize it has been as bad as it is. And I hadn’t heard about that experimental 85-pitch limit and I now am curious to find out more about that.

Dave V.
Dave V.
12 years ago

Is it a 75-pitch limit or now 85? In doing some web searching, I see that it was 75 pitches. Though I did find this article from early July in which 85 pitches is mentioned (http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120703&content_id=34388452&notebook_id=34388574&c_id=col)

Doug
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Dave V.

Seems like ASAP should be the relief point for the Rockies’ starters. Every reliever on their staff with 40+ IP has a better ERA+ than every starter on their staff.

nightfly
12 years ago

And of course, on schedule, here come the 2012 Mets to calm the waters… though even there, the starter goes four innings and gets yanked because he’s at 83 pitches? I’ve heard a theory that a team could minimize the effect of hitters getting multiple chances to see the same pitcher, simply by following an All-Star Game strategy and only throwing pitchers one or two innings each day: essentially, having a full staff of relievers. The “openers” would only get 15-20 starts each, and have plenty of opportunity to get into games otherwise. The Rockies almost seem like they’re forced… Read more »

Doug
Editor
12 years ago

About the only mark the erstwhile worst pitching staff in history (1930 Phillies) may still have is team ERA+ at 82, versus the Rockies’ 88. But, the season’s not over yet. 1930 Phillies Pos Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP SP Phil Collins 28 16 11 .593 4.78 47 25 16 17 1 3 239.0 22 86 87 114 1.561 SP Ray Benge 28 11 15 .423 5.70 38 29 4 14 0 1 225.2 22 81 70 96 1.710 SP Les Sweetland* 28 7 15 .318 7.71 34… Read more »

Doug
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

And the 2012 Rockies. Pos Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP SP Jeremy Guthrie 33 3 9 .250 6.35 19 15 0 0 0 0 90.2 21 31 45 74 1.688 SP Christian Friedrich* 24 5 8 .385 6.17 16 16 0 0 0 0 84.2 14 30 74 77 1.559 SP Alex White 23 2 6 .250 5.55 15 15 0 0 0 0 73.0 9 35 49 85 1.616 SP Jeff Francis* 31 4 4 .500 6.07 15 15 0 0 0 0 72.2 12 15 41… Read more »

brp
brp
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

I wonder if the Rockies can feel a chance at the “record” in the air tonight.

nightfly
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

More walks than strikeouts for an entire STAFF? Ye cats.

TheGoof
TheGoof
12 years ago

What’s the point of asset protection if you don’t use your asset? Jim Kaat probably throws 85 pitches before breakfast.

Sheesh. If Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson came up today, they’d never get 50 wins, let alone 300, because of the brilliant people who came up with this approach. And let’s face it, there’s more pitcher injuries than the 80s or 90s. So they aren’t doing it right.

I know nobody wants to do what Billy Martin did to the A’s starters, but they’re doing worse than that by default.