Remembering Albert: Pujols hit #400 2 years ago today

Albert Pujols / USPRESSWIRE

Today in 2010, Albert Pujols hit career homer run #400. He was the 3rd youngest player to reach that plateau, behind just Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr.

At the time, Pujols seemed unstoppable. Over the first 10 full years of his career (2001-2010) he averaged 40.8 HR and 123.0 RBI per season. Thanks to injuries and a slip in his performance, though, he hasn’t been quite the same guy since.

That day 2 years ago was the 1,523rd game of Pujols’ career. Through that game he had 400 HR in 6636 plate appearances, or 1 HR every 16.6 PAs.

Since then, through yesterday, Pujols has played in 303 games. He’s hit 73 HR in 1323 plate appearances, or 1 HR every 18.1 PAs.

That may not seem like a huge difference, but let’s imagine that Pujols ends up with 12,000 career plate appearances, around 15th all-time. At his earlier HR rate of 1 per 16.6, that would mean 722 career homers. At his more recent rate of 1 per 18.1, it would mean 662 career homers. The first number is just ahead of Ruth, while the second number is just ahead of Mays.

I’m just sayin’.

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Phil Gaskill

12 years ago

I guess I don’t follow the NL all that closely: Has Pujols always been that fat?

I’m just sayin’.

RetroRob

12 years ago

Reply to Phil Gaskill

He does look to be a bit beefy.

Brooklyn Mick

12 years ago

Reply to Phil Gaskill

He’s always been a pretty “thick” guy, but seemed to be more lean than it “appears” in this pic. Maybe it’s the pic — maybe it’s the shirt (LOL), or maybe he has indeed softened up a bit.

Brooklyn Mick

12 years ago

As you said Andy, his home run production is down by a fraction, but what’s more dramatic is the decline of his BA, OBP, and OPS+. Going into the 2011 season his career BA was .331. Since then his cumulative BA is .292. Going into the 2011 season his career OBP was a whopping .426. Since then his OBP is .356. Going into the 2011 season his career OPS+ was a heavy 172. Since then it’s in the 146 range. His last “dominant” year was 2010, his age 30 season. We’ve seen it time and again — the vast “majority”… Read more »

birtelcom

12 years ago

If you give Albert a 36-game mulligan to account for playing in a new home park and 13 mostly new visiting parks, and a new home city to live in and playing with all new teammates and coaches, then you can look at his slash line from May 15 on:
.320 BA/.387 OBP/.644 SLG/1.031 OPS
Compare that to his career numbers:
.325 BA/.415 OBP/.611 SLG/1.026 OPS

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

You can do the same thing with his 2011 numbers also, birtelcom. He struggled for two months, then returned to his prime form. There’s also his great 2011 postseason to consider.

It seems like everyone WANTS Pujols to struggle. Is it because of the big contract he signed? He’s hardly the only one. This guy’s been as good as a baseball player can be for 12 years, and now people just can’t wait to tear him down.

Brooklyn Mick

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

I personally don’t want to see Albert struggle. I love personally witnessing milestone chases and history being made. But I think the crux of the message concerns whether he can sustain the level of offensive production that we witnessed in his age 21-30 seasons. With today’s advanced training methods, medical treatment, off-season workout regimens, and the like, I think he has a chance to do some remarkable things. But will he ever hit .350+ again? Will he ever hit 45+ homers again? 130+ RBI? Probably not…but that doesn’t mean he can’t, or that we can’t root for him to do… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Brooklyn Mick

You caught my sentiment about Pujols exactly, Mick. I think it’s fun as hell to watch what this guy has done and will do in the future.

If baseball is my passion, I would say my passion-within-that-passion is following good/great players’ careers and watching them pile up numbers and make history. And the back of Albert Pujols’ baseball card is about as impressive as you can get, from both a production and a consistency standpoint.

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Andy

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

I certainly don’t want Pujols to struggle. What I find fascinating, though, is watching how to all-time greats DO decline. There was a time when it seemed absolutely impossible that Alex Rodriguez was going to break Hank Aaron’s record. At the time, nobody even thought Bonds would do it first. With A-Rod it seemed a factual eventuality, and that 800 homers was within reach. Now, he’s merely a “good” player and injuries have been consistently limiting his playing time. He’s maybe 50-50 at this point to even reach 700 homers. With A-Rod, his decline was pretty quick, given that he… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

I didn’t mean you, Andy; i just meant that, in general, Pujols has gotten way more attention the last couple of years when he’s not hitting than when he’s himself and playing like he’s still one of the best hitters in MLB.

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

He has improved since his slow start, and I would be open to the league-adjustment possibility if not for the fact he has been showing signs of decline for a few years. Not major, although not insignificant either. Starting with 2008: His wRC+ has declined from 184, 182, 165, 148, 134. His fWAR has declined from 9.1, 9.0, 7.5, 5.1 to 3.2. His OPS+ has declined from 192, 189, 173, 148 to 144. The tick down from 2008 to 2009 is irrelevant. They are mirror seasons and represent Pujols at peak, yet the following three seasons are showing a very… Read more »

SocraticGadfly

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Indeed. Even with the very slow start, he’s on pace to wind up better than 2011, and possibly even with 2010. Give him a year’s learning, with being in a more hitter-friendly part than Busch (which Andy didn’t mention) and more hitter-friendly road parks, the American League, DH, etc., and Andy seems to be writing prematurely. VERY prematurely.

no statistician but

12 years ago

A look at the stats of the three players named shows that Pujols is doing far better than Griffey—who was nearly finished as a full-timer after age thirty—and coming reasonably close to A-Rod, given the latter’s monster age 31 year. Two things: Pujols is still banging out lots of doubles as well as a fair number of HRs. He isn’t, however, taking nearly as many walks. Some if not a lot of the decline Brooklyn Mick notes @ #3 results from fewer BBs. In any case, I don’t think he’s a has-been by any means. He’s sixth in the league… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

nsb, I don’t think anyone’s suggesting he’s a has-been. There’s an Atlantic Ocean-sized gap between Pujols’ awesome peak and his current very dangerous level as a hitter. To me, hitters have three phases. This is simplistic, but the hitters who accumulte great stats over their careers do well in all three phases, even as they decline. Phase one is the easiest, 21-30. A player in his 20s when he has all of his skills, youth and drive working for him. Phase two is in the 31-35 range. Age takes away some of a player’s skills and how the player adjusts… Read more »

Phil

12 years ago

From the time I started buying Zander Hollander guides as a kid, I was always fascinated by the consistency of certain careers, and Albert maintained perfect .300/30/100 symmetry until he fell microscopically short last year: .299/37/99. (Old-fashioned to care about such things, I know.) Unless he goes on a tear, he’ll miss .300 by much more this season.

Jacob

12 years ago

Reply to Phil

Phil, you must be my long-lost twin. This message could have been posted by me, word for word.

Phil

12 years ago

Reply to Jacob

That’s funny. On the sabermetrically-inclined message board where I post, I think people were amused/perplexed as to why I was so interested in Pujols’ proximity to .300 and 100 RBI towards the end of last season.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Phil

Pujols was also one run short of 100 in 2007, and one RBI short of 100 in 2011. Otherwise, as you said, he’d have “maintained perfect .300/30/100 symmetry” for his first 11 years.

Of course, if you wish to, you could say he’s had perfect “.299/30/99/99 symmetry” his first 11 years.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Despite missing those marks by a run one season and one RBI in another, Pujols is tied for the third-most .300/30/100/100 seasons of all-time:

1. Babe Ruth 11 seasons
2. Lou Gehrig 10
3. Albert Pujols 9
3. Jimmie Foxx 9
3. Barry Bonds 9
6. A Rodriguez 8

John Nacca

12 years ago

Wait till another year or two when someone who has it out for him comes up with the proof he is really 4-6 years older then he claims to be. I really hope it doesn’t happen, but the way “snitches” come out in sports, I wouldn’t at all be shocked.

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

In response to Andy’s recent Jeter post, commenter Pat O’Dougherty expressed his affection for consecutive-season-streak records, such as Jeter’s challenge to records for most seasons in a row at certain hits levels. That type of record can be hard to check for with the Play Index, but they are easy to do with a research tool called the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia (CBE), produced by Lee Sinins. http://www.baseball-encyclopedia.com/. I have that product updated through 2008 (I haven’t succeeded in updating it to the 2012 version — my computer has stymied me for some reason) and can give you a good Pujols… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Curious. Is that site in any way affiliated with the old Baseball Encyclopedia, print version?

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

Not so far as I know.

Brooklyn Mick

12 years ago

Carl Yastrzemski’s career fits almost perfectly into the discussion concerning career arcs and subsequent declines. Yastrzemki’s best years were undoubtedly his first ten, during which time he won a Triple Crown, an MVP, three Batting Crowns, and nearly a fourth when he and Alex Johnson finished up at .329 but the title went to Johnson, whose average was .002 higher – that’s right, 2/1000 higher. During the dedade Yaz also led the league in OBP five times, SLG three times, OPS+ four times, hits twice, total bases twice, and runs twice. He was, in no uncertain terms, great. His tenth… Read more »

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10 years ago

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