Pitching reliability – an honest day’s work

Quick – have you had a bad day at work this year? Pretty silly question, right. Well, if you’re among a select group of pitchers, maybe it’s not such a silly question. I’m talking about guys who deliver an honest day’s work almost every time they pitch and almost never have an “off day”.

As of this writing, there are still 5 pitchers this year who have put in a honest day’s work (HDW) every time they’ve pitched, and one (Ivan Nova) who had his streak snapped with his most recent outing earlier this week. After the jump, I’ll look more at the most reliable performers among major league pitchers.

So, what do I mean by an “honest day’s work”. I’m calling that 90 or more pitches AND 5 or more innings pitched. What I’m trying to capture here are:

(a) being effective enough to give your team at least 5 frames and save wear and tear on the bullpen; and

(b) being effective long enough that you’re not removed until you’re spent physically.

What’s not captured are the efficient outings where a pitcher goes 7 or more on fewer than 90 pitches to then give way to the setup man and/or closer. But, pitching that many innings on so few pitches is a pretty unusual occurrence (since 2005, the number of such starts has ranged from 67 to 142 each season, about 2% of starts).

Anyway, here are the longest HDW streaks to start a season since 1988 (when pitch count data are available on B-R).

Rk  Player Strk Start End Games W L GS CG SHO IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Tm
1 Randy Johnson 1999-04-05 1999-09-30 35 17 9 35 12 2 271.2 207 86 75 70 364 30 2.48 ARI
2 Curt Schilling 1998-03-31 1998-09-26 35 15 14 35 15 2 268.2 236 101 97 61 300 23 3.25 PHI
3 Justin Verlander 2011-03-31 2011-09-24 34 24 5 34 4 2 251.0 174 73 67 57 250 24 2.40 DET
4 Adam Wainwright 2009-04-06 2009-10-02 34 19 8 34 1 0 233.0 216 75 68 66 212 17 2.63 STL
5 Johan Santana 2006-04-04 2006-09-26 34 19 6 34 1 0 233.2 186 79 72 47 245 24 2.77 MIN
6 Randy Johnson 2002-04-01 2002-09-14 33 22 5 33 7 4 244.0 187 75 66 69 317 25 2.43 ARI
7 Ryan Dempster 2000-04-04 2000-10-01 33 14 10 33 2 1 226.1 210 102 92 97 209 30 3.66 FLA
8 Felix Hernandez 2011-04-01 2011-09-18 32 14 13 32 5 0 230.1 206 92 85 66 220 19 3.32 SEA
9 Ervin Santana 2008-04-03 2008-09-27 32 16 7 32 2 1 219.0 198 89 85 47 214 23 3.49 LAA
10 Jason Jennings 2006-04-03 2006-09-26 32 9 13 32 3 2 212.0 206 94 89 85 142 17 3.78 COL
11 Roger Clemens 1992-04-07 1992-09-12 30 18 9 30 10 5 233.1 184 68 60 60 198 11 2.31 BOS
12 Yovani Gallardo 2009-04-08 2009-09-15 29 12 12 29 1 0 180.2 147 78 77 91 197 21 3.84 MIL
13 Roy Halladay 2008-04-01 2008-09-05 29 18 9 29 8 2 215.2 192 75 64 34 183 17 2.67 TOR
14 Dan Haren 2007-04-02 2007-09-01 29 14 6 29 0 0 191.1 170 74 61 47 161 20 2.87 OAK
15 Nolan Ryan 1989-04-06 1989-09-12 29 15 10 29 5 1 215.0 152 90 81 87 277 17 3.39 TEX
16 Jake Peavy 2007-04-03 2007-09-01 28 16 5 28 0 0 184.2 135 47 43 55 206 7 2.10 SDP
17 Johan Santana 2005-04-05 2005-09-03 28 13 6 28 3 2 196.2 155 70 67 36 205 18 3.07 MIN
18 Woody Williams 2003-04-02 2003-08-27 27 14 6 27 0 0 186.0 177 76 71 43 128 16 3.44 STL
19 Colby Lewis 2010-04-09 2010-08-29 26 9 11 26 1 0 167.0 146 70 66 53 163 17 3.56 TEX
20 Freddy Garcia 2005-04-06 2005-08-23 26 11 6 26 2 0 183.0 176 76 72 49 120 21 3.54 CHW
21 Andy Benes 1997-04-28 1997-09-07 26 10 7 26 0 0 177.0 149 64 61 61 175 9 3.10 STL
22 David Cone 1997-04-01 1997-08-12 26 12 6 26 1 0 184.0 149 63 58 79 214 17 2.84 NYY
23 Omar Daal 1999-04-09 1999-08-22 25 13 6 25 2 1 175.0 143 70 67 66 125 16 3.45 ARI
24 Jered Weaver 2011-03-31 2011-08-05 24 14 5 24 4 2 176.2 127 36 35 39 150 8 1.78 LAA
25 Jon Lester 2010-04-06 2010-08-14 24 13 7 24 2 0 161.0 127 55 50 55 165 10 2.80 BOS
26 Tom Glavine 2000-04-04 2000-08-04 24 14 5 24 2 1 166.0 158 71 65 50 109 15 3.52 ATL
27 James Shields 2012-04-06 2012-08-07 23 10 7 23 1 1 154.1 161 83 70 45 151 18 4.08 TBR
28 Justin Verlander 2012-04-05 2012-08-06 23 12 7 23 6 1 168.2 125 57 47 41 166 14 2.51 DET
29 Justin Masterson 2011-04-03 2011-08-04 23 9 7 23 1 0 156.1 141 54 46 42 120 5 2.65 CLE
30 Cliff Lee 2010-04-30 2010-08-26 23 10 8 23 7 1 179.2 167 70 65 12 156 14 3.26 SEA-TEX
31 Jose Contreras 2006-04-05 2006-08-16 23 11 5 23 1 1 159.2 147 69 67 44 104 15 3.78 CHW
32 Cole Hamels 2012-04-09 2012-08-07 22 12 6 22 1 1 154.2 134 59 54 40 153 19 3.14 PHI
33 Jake Peavy 2012-04-07 2012-08-07 22 9 8 22 4 1 154.2 131 57 53 34 138 15 3.08 CHW
34 Matt Cain 2012-04-08 2012-08-06 22 10 5 22 2 2 152.1 125 56 51 32 142 17 3.01 SFG
35 Phil Hughes 2010-04-15 2010-08-14 22 14 5 22 0 0 134.2 128 60 59 38 110 17 3.94 NYY
36 Joel Pineiro 2003-04-03 2003-07-31 22 13 5 22 2 2 151.2 123 51 51 58 104 9 3.03 SEA
37 Cal Eldred 1994-04-05 1994-07-24 22 9 10 22 6 0 161.1 138 84 81 73 86 20 4.52 MIL
38 Jimmy Key 1992-04-10 1992-08-07 22 7 9 22 3 1 152.0 154 66 63 39 68 18 3.73 TOR
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 8/9/2012.

The streaks in red are full season – every start matching the HDW criteria. The five active streaks I alluded to are in green. Note that there are 5 streaks from 2012 and 4 each from 2010 and 2011 in the top 38 for the past 25 seasons – more than one-third of the list from less than one-eighth of the seasons. Just a fluke, or consistent with a swing back towards pitcher domination?

Randy Johnson (no.6) and Roy Halladay (no. 13) would have had full season streaks with one more pitch in one start. Nolan Ryan (no. 15) almost certainly had a full season streak in 1989, but pitch count data are missing for one of his starts where he pitched into the 8th inning and faced 32 batters. Greg Maddux is unjustly missing here owing to his stature as one of the few pitchers of this period to consistently deliver a full outing in fewer than 90 pitches.

For the most such games in a season, this is the list.

Rk Player Year #Matching W L W-L% ERA GS CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO WHIP
1 Dave Stewart 1988 35 Ind. Games 21 11 .656 2.91 35 14 2 0 266.0 225 86 13 101 186 1.23
2 Curt Schilling 1998 35 Ind. Games 15 14 .517 3.25 35 15 2 0 268.2 236 97 23 61 300 1.11
3 Randy Johnson 1999 35 Ind. Games 17 9 .654 2.48 35 12 2 0 271.2 207 75 30 70 364 1.02
4 Adam Wainwright 2009 34 Ind. Games 19 8 .704 2.63 34 1 0 0 233.0 216 68 17 66 212 1.21
5 Justin Verlander 2011 34 Ind. Games 24 5 .828 2.40 34 4 2 0 251.0 174 67 24 57 250 0.92
6 Johan Santana 2006 34 Ind. Games 19 6 .760 2.77 34 1 0 0 233.2 186 72 24 47 245 1.00
7 Jose Rijo 1993 34 Ind. Games 13 8 .619 2.46 34 1 1 0 245.1 207 67 16 62 215 1.10
8 Mark Langston 1988 34 Ind. Games 15 10 .600 3.19 34 9 3 0 259.1 215 92 32 108 235 1.25
9 Randy Johnson 2002 34 Ind. Games 23 5 .821 2.35 34 8 4 0 253.0 193 66 25 71 325 1.04
10 Mark Gubicza 1988 34 Ind. Games 20 7 .741 2.57 34 8 4 0 265.2 230 76 11 81 181 1.17
11 Kevin Brown 1999 34 Ind. Games 18 8 .692 2.89 34 5 1 0 249.1 202 80 16 57 221 1.04
12 Barry Zito 2006 33 Ind. Games 16 9 .640 3.56 33 0 0 0 219.2 207 87 26 95 148 1.37
13 Barry Zito 2005 33 Ind. Games 14 11 .560 3.41 33 0 0 0 221.2 169 84 22 83 168 1.14
14 Bill Wegman 1992 33 Ind. Games 12 13 .480 3.10 33 7 0 0 252.2 239 87 26 50 122 1.14
15 Bret Saberhagen 1989 33 Ind. Games 22 5 .815 1.91 33 12 4 0 254.1 196 54 11 40 187 0.93
16 CC Sabathia 2007 33 Ind. Games 19 6 .760 3.00 33 4 1 0 237.0 228 79 17 36 206 1.11
17 CC Sabathia 2008 33 Ind. Games 17 8 .680 2.12 33 10 5 0 245.2 203 58 17 52 246 1.04
18 Jake Peavy 2007 33 Ind. Games 19 5 .792 2.26 33 0 0 0 219.1 162 55 11 65 236 1.03
19 Jack McDowell 1992 33 Ind. Games 20 9 .690 3.04 33 13 1 0 257.2 239 87 20 74 176 1.21
20 Livan Hernandez 2004 33 Ind. Games 11 13 .458 3.22 33 9 2 0 248.2 219 89 24 78 180 1.19
21 Felix Hernandez 2009 33 Ind. Games 19 4 .826 2.34 33 2 1 0 234.2 194 61 13 68 215 1.12
22 Dan Haren 2007 33 Ind. Games 15 8 .652 2.93 33 0 0 0 218.0 202 71 23 52 185 1.17
23 Tom Glavine 2000 33 Ind. Games 20 8 .714 3.22 33 4 2 0 232.0 209 83 23 62 149 1.17
24 Ryan Dempster 2000 33 Ind. Games 14 10 .583 3.66 33 2 1 0 226.1 210 92 30 97 209 1.36
25 Roger Clemens 1989 33 Ind. Games 17 10 .630 2.87 33 8 3 0 251.0 206 80 19 91 226 1.18
26 Roger Clemens 1991 33 Ind. Games 18 10 .643 2.53 33 13 4 0 260.0 208 73 14 59 237 1.03
27 Mark Buehrle 2004 33 Ind. Games 16 8 .667 3.43 33 4 1 0 236.1 239 90 30 47 160 1.21
28 Mark Buehrle 2002 33 Ind. Games 19 11 .633 3.31 33 5 2 0 236.1 227 87 22 59 132 1.21
29 Bronson Arroyo 2006 33 Ind. Games 14 10 .583 3.13 33 3 1 0 230.1 207 80 27 59 178 1.15
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/9/2012.

Roy Halladay’s name appears just once in the first list and not at all in the second, but he is among the most consistent HDW pitchers of recent years. Here are the pitchers for the same seasons (since 1988) with the most seasons averaging 7 IP per start (min. 20 starts and starting in 80% of appearances). Active pitchers are indicated in green.

Rk Yrs From To Age
1 Randy Johnson 10 1993 2004 29-40 Ind. Seasons
2 Greg Maddux 10 1988 2000 22-34 Ind. Seasons
3 Curt Schilling 9 1996 2004 29-37 Ind. Seasons
4 Roger Clemens 9 1988 1998 25-35 Ind. Seasons
5 Roy Halladay 7 2002 2011 25-34 Ind. Seasons
6 David Cone 6 1988 1995 25-32 Ind. Seasons
7 Livan Hernandez 5 1998 2005 23-30 Ind. Seasons
8 Pedro Martinez 5 1997 2005 25-33 Ind. Seasons
9 Kevin Brown 5 1992 1999 27-34 Ind. Seasons
10 Jack McDowell 5 1991 1995 25-29 Ind. Seasons
11 Dennis Martinez 5 1989 1994 34-39 Ind. Seasons
12 Mark Langston 5 1988 1993 27-32 Ind. Seasons
13 Felix Hernandez 4 2009 2012 23-26 Ind. Seasons
14 CC Sabathia 4 2007 2012 26-31 Ind. Seasons
15 John Smoltz 4 1989 1997 22-30 Ind. Seasons
16 Doug Drabek 4 1989 1994 26-31 Ind. Seasons
17 Bret Saberhagen 4 1988 1994 24-30 Ind. Seasons
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 8/9/2012.

Notice how the numbers of pitchers to do this consistently has dwindled in recent years, with the formulaic approach to a starter-setup man-closer mentality, batters working the count to wear down pitchers, and hard pitch count limits. But, perhaps this may be starting to change. I mentioned at the top that only about 2% of starts since 2005 have involved a starter going 7+ innings on fewer than 90 pitches. So far this season, there have been 96 such games, already more than each of the past 3 seasons and on pace for the most since 2005 (142 games) and possibly the highest since 2002 (167 games). Here are those data.

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latefortheparty
latefortheparty
12 years ago

I’m sort of (and sort of not) surprised by the percentage not just of wins, but of decisions, these hard working pitchers earned. I’m just eyeballing it, but only five of the 38 seasons show more than 85 percent of games pitched resulting in decisions:

’94 Cal Eldred (.864)
’89 Nolan Ryan (.862)
’92 Roger Clemens (.900)
’09 Roy Halladay (.931)
’11 Justin Verlander (.852)

Perhaps not reasonably, but I was expecting more than that, particularly given the criteria. Please forgive my formatting ignorance.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago

Doug, two questions: (1) Can you elaborate on the rationale of the 90-pitch requirement? Why 90, and not 80, or 100?

(2) What is the AL/NL breakdown of these streaks? I’d imagine that an AL pitcher has a slight edge in compiling such a streak, although it’s not immediately obvious from the top of the list.

Thanks!

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

I thought of this post last night when I saw Jordan Zimmermann pulled after 6 scoreless IP and 87 pitches.

It’s the 7th time this year he’s gone 6+ IP on less than 90 pitches, including a couple of 7-IP games. He’s gone 6+ in every game but one this year (and that one was 5 IP and 96 pitches), but he doesn’t come anywhere near these lists. (I’m just sayin’.)

Hartvig
Hartvig
12 years ago

Mark Buehrle was a name I expected to see based on the first paragraph. I suspect that like Maddux he’s penalized for some low pitch 8 and 9 inning outings. Still useful information however.

As evidenced by Gio Gonzalez last night after back to back extra innings games an 8 or 9 inning start is a managers best friend. If you can count on that nearly every time out from a pitcher it has to make the managers job a lot easier.

Jimbo
Jimbo
12 years ago

So Verlander did it for all of last year and so far all of this year? What is the longest streak over multiple seasons?

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

My PI search shows hat Verlander’s current streak of 75 is the highest for multiple years in the pitch count searchable era. Second is Randy Johnson with 69, third is Felix Hernandez with 59 and fourth is Matt Cain’s current streak of 51.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

Just thought I would try my hand at posting PI results. Here are the top 10 for the time period 1988 to 2012. I tried to follow Doug’s instructions to Jim on another post. Rk Name of Pitcher Strk Start End Games 1 J. Verlander 6/27/2010 8/6/2012 75 2 Randy Johnson 5/24/1998 5/21/2000 69 3 F. Hernandez 5/13/2010 9/18/2011 59 4 Matt Cain 4/26/2011 8/6/2012 51 5 Ryan Dempster 8/27/1999 4/18/2001 44 6 Curt Schilling 9/1/1997 9/26/1998 41 7 Roger Clemens 8/16/1991 9/12/1992 41 8 Mark Gubicza 4/22/1988 5/11/1989 41 9 A.Wainwright 9/19/2008 4/24/2010 40 10 Mark Buehrle 6/29/2004 7/26/2005… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago

Oh well, I tried.

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago

testing

Rank

Pitcher
Start
End
Games

1

Verlander
6/27/2010
8/6/2012
75

2

Johnson
5/24/1998
5/21/2000
69

3

Hernandez
5/13/2010
9/18/2011
59

4

Cain
4/26/2011
8/6/2012
51

5

Dempster
8/27/1999
4/18/2001
44

6

Schilling
9/1/1997
9/26/1998
41

7

Clemens
8/16/1991
9/12/1992
41

8

Gubicza
4/22/1988
5/11/1989
41

9

Wainwright
9/19/2008
4/24/2010
40

10

Buehrle
6/29/2004
7/26/2005
40

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

hmmm, that would be a negative result.

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago

test # 2:

Rank

Pitcher
Start
End
Games

1

Verlander
6/27/2010
8/6/2012
75

2

Johnson
5/24/1998
5/21/2000
69

3

Hernandez
5/13/2010
9/18/2011
59

4

Cain
4/26/2011
8/6/2012
51

5

Dempster
8/27/1999
4/18/2001
44

6

Schilling
9/1/1997
9/26/1998
41

7

Clemens
8/16/1991
9/12/1992
41

8

Gubicza
4/22/1988
5/11/1989
41

9

Wainwright
9/19/2008
4/24/2010
40

10

Buehrle
6/29/2004
7/26/2005
40

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

OK, I give up then.

brp
brp
12 years ago

I must say that Omar Daal being in the first list is probably the oddest name, to me, but it turns out that he was actually a good starter in ’98 and ’99. Just something I didn’t recall, apparently.

Doug
Doug
12 years ago

John,

Good observation on Zimmerman. Not every pitcher has the same pitch count target and not every team has the Nats bullpen. My gut feel, though, is most managers would want to get at least part of a 7th inning from a starter who’s going well and is under 90 pitches.

mosc
mosc
12 years ago

I find it amusing that this stat is about consistency but then it’s treated as a streak. That makes no sense. Number of games in a season that meet your criteria is exactly what you want to see. Also then you could directly add in performances with lower pitch counts that went 6+ or 7+ innings giving a better picture. I also think this analysis pretty clearly favors guys who throw a lot of pitches per inning (guys who walk batters). I don’t know why a team would think their pitcher a harder worker because he throws 5 innings, gives… Read more »