Miguel Cabrera is in his 10th season. Just for fun, I compared his 10-year totals (projecting his 2012 rates to a full season) with those of Henry Aaron, who also debuted at age 20. Before you finish that derisive snort, let me state clearly that Aaron was without question:
- a better hitter than Cabrera (8 points of OPS+ is significant);
- a much better baserunner; and
- a far more valuable player, considering defense.
That said, their hitting totals are still interesting:
Henry Aaron & Miguel Cabrera: 10-year totals*
Year | Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | TB | GDP | HBP | IBB | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1954 | 20 | 122 | 509 | 468 | 58 | 131 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 69 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 39 | .280 | .322 | .447 | .769 | 104 | 209 | 13 | 3 | |
1955 | 21 | 153 | 665 | 602 | 105 | 189 | 37 | 9 | 27 | 106 | 3 | 1 | 49 | 61 | .314 | .366 | .540 | .906 | 141 | 325 | 20 | 3 | 5 |
1956 | 22 | 153 | 660 | 609 | 106 | 200 | 34 | 14 | 26 | 92 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 54 | .328 | .365 | .558 | .923 | 151 | 340 | 21 | 2 | 6 |
1957 | 23 | 151 | 675 | 615 | 118 | 198 | 27 | 6 | 44 | 132 | 1 | 1 | 57 | 58 | .322 | .378 | .600 | .978 | 166 | 369 | 13 | 0 | 15 |
1958 | 24 | 153 | 664 | 601 | 109 | 196 | 34 | 4 | 30 | 95 | 4 | 1 | 59 | 49 | .326 | .386 | .546 | .931 | 152 | 328 | 21 | 1 | 16 |
1959 | 25 | 154 | 693 | 629 | 116 | 223 | 46 | 7 | 39 | 123 | 8 | 0 | 51 | 54 | .355 | .401 | .636 | 1.037 | 182 | 400 | 19 | 4 | 17 |
1960 | 26 | 153 | 664 | 590 | 102 | 172 | 20 | 11 | 40 | 126 | 16 | 7 | 60 | 63 | .292 | .352 | .566 | .919 | 156 | 334 | 8 | 2 | 13 |
1961 | 27 | 155 | 671 | 603 | 115 | 197 | 39 | 10 | 34 | 120 | 21 | 9 | 56 | 64 | .327 | .381 | .594 | .974 | 163 | 358 | 16 | 2 | 20 |
1962 | 28 | 156 | 667 | 592 | 127 | 191 | 28 | 6 | 45 | 128 | 15 | 7 | 66 | 73 | .323 | .390 | .618 | 1.008 | 170 | 366 | 14 | 3 | 14 |
1963 | 29 | 161 | 714 | 631 | 121 | 201 | 29 | 4 | 44 | 130 | 31 | 5 | 78 | 94 | .319 | .391 | .586 | .977 | 179 | 370 | 11 | 0 | 18 |
HA: 10 Yrs | 1511 | 6582 | 5940 | 1077 | 1898 | 321 | 77 | 342 | 1121 | 103 | 37 | 541 | 609 | .320 | .375 | .572 | .947 | 158 | 3399 | 156 | 20 | 154 | |
Year | Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | TB | GDP | HBP | IBB | |||||
MC: 10 Yrs* | 1513 | 6491 | 5683 | 960 | 1804 | 388 | 13 | 319 | 1123 | 35 | 18 | 707 | 1099 | .317 | .394 | .558 | .952 | 150 | 3177 | 197 | 42 | 159 | |
2003 | 20 | 87 | 346 | 314 | 39 | 84 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 84 | .268 | .325 | .468 | .793 | 106 | 147 | 12 | 2 | 3 |
2004 | 21 | 160 | 685 | 603 | 101 | 177 | 31 | 1 | 33 | 112 | 5 | 2 | 68 | 148 | .294 | .366 | .512 | .879 | 130 | 309 | 20 | 6 | 5 |
2005 | 22 | 158 | 685 | 613 | 106 | 198 | 43 | 2 | 33 | 116 | 1 | 0 | 64 | 125 | .323 | .385 | .561 | .947 | 151 | 344 | 20 | 2 | 12 |
2006 | 23 | 158 | 676 | 576 | 112 | 195 | 50 | 2 | 26 | 114 | 9 | 6 | 86 | 108 | .339 | .430 | .568 | .998 | 159 | 327 | 18 | 10 | 27 |
2007 | 24 | 157 | 680 | 588 | 91 | 188 | 38 | 2 | 34 | 119 | 2 | 1 | 79 | 127 | .320 | .401 | .565 | .965 | 150 | 332 | 17 | 5 | 23 |
2008 | 25 | 160 | 684 | 616 | 85 | 180 | 36 | 2 | 37 | 127 | 1 | 0 | 56 | 126 | .292 | .349 | .537 | .887 | 130 | 331 | 16 | 3 | 6 |
2009 | 26 | 160 | 685 | 611 | 96 | 198 | 34 | 0 | 34 | 103 | 6 | 2 | 68 | 107 | .324 | .396 | .547 | .942 | 144 | 334 | 22 | 5 | 14 |
2010 | 27 | 150 | 648 | 548 | 111 | 180 | 45 | 1 | 38 | 126 | 3 | 3 | 89 | 95 | .328 | .420 | .622 | 1.042 | 178 | 341 | 17 | 3 | 32 |
2011 | 28 | 161 | 688 | 572 | 111 | 197 | 48 | 0 | 30 | 105 | 2 | 1 | 108 | 89 | .344 | .448 | .586 | 1.033 | 179 | 335 | 24 | 3 | 22 |
2012 | 29 | 111 | 489 | 440 | 74 | 142 | 29 | 0 | 29 | 95 | 4 | 1 | 44 | 62 | .323 | .384 | .586 | .971 | 158 | 258 | 21 | 2 | 10 |
2012* | 29 | 162 | 714 | 642 | 108 | 207 | 42 | 0 | 42 | 139 | 6 | 1 | 64 | 90 | .323 | .384 | .586 | .971 | 158 | 377 | 31 | 3 | 15 |
MC: 10 Yrs | 1462 | 6266 | 5481 | 926 | 1739 | 375 | 13 | 306 | 1079 | 33 | 18 | 687 | 1071 | .317 | .394 | .558 | .952 | 150 | 3058 | 187 | 41 | 154 |
* For the purpose of this comparison, I projected Cabrera’s 2012 rates over a full season. Both the actual and the projected numbers for 2012 are shown on separate lines in the table. The first totals for MC: 10 Yrs* (in the middle of the table, below Aaron’s totals) feature the 2012 projections; those on the bottom (MC: 10 Yrs, no asterisk) are Cabrera’s actual totals.
I considered also projecting Cabrera’s rookie stats to the same 122 games as played by the rookie Aaron, since Cabrera didn’t come up until almost half the year was gone, while Aaron started Opening Day. But the difference in rookie games is offset by Aaron’s 154-game schedule in 8 of the 10 years covered. The bigger point is that both played almost every game.
The main difference between their offensive packages was Aaron’s speed, shown by his edge in 3Bs, SB and Runs.
I’m surprised that Cabrera’s (projected) HR total is that close to Aaron’s, since Henry already had four 40-HR seasons, while Cabrera’s only such year is his projected 42 for this season.
By the way, I may have missed it, but I didn’t notice any fuss over Cabrera reaching 3,000 Total Bases on July 15. He’s the 11th player to get there by age 29, currently ranking 10th in that group, but he’ll pass Rogers Hornsby and Frank Robinson any day now to wind up 8th on the age-29 list by year’s end (and 6th or 7th for Total Bases in the first 10 years).
Speaking of Robinson, he’s #1 on Cabrera’s list of Similarity Scores through age 28 (score of 924; Aaron is #2 at 910). Here’s the Robinson/Cabrera comparison, in the same format as before:
Frank Robinson & Miguel Cabrera: 10-year totals
Year | Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | TB | GDP | HBP | IBB | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1956 | 20 | 152 | 667 | 572 | 122 | 166 | 27 | 6 | 38 | 83 | 8 | 4 | 64 | 95 | .290 | .379 | .558 | .936 | 143 | 319 | 14 | 20 | 7 |
1957 | 21 | 150 | 677 | 611 | 97 | 197 | 29 | 5 | 29 | 75 | 10 | 2 | 44 | 92 | .322 | .376 | .529 | .905 | 135 | 323 | 13 | 12 | 5 |
1958 | 22 | 148 | 623 | 554 | 90 | 149 | 25 | 6 | 31 | 83 | 10 | 1 | 62 | 80 | .269 | .350 | .504 | .854 | 118 | 279 | 13 | 7 | 5 |
1959 | 23 | 146 | 626 | 540 | 106 | 168 | 31 | 4 | 36 | 125 | 18 | 8 | 69 | 93 | .311 | .391 | .583 | .975 | 153 | 315 | 16 | 8 | 9 |
1960 | 24 | 139 | 562 | 464 | 86 | 138 | 33 | 6 | 31 | 83 | 13 | 6 | 82 | 67 | .297 | .407 | .595 | 1.002 | 169 | 276 | 18 | 9 | 6 |
1961 | 25 | 153 | 635 | 545 | 117 | 176 | 32 | 7 | 37 | 124 | 22 | 3 | 71 | 64 | .323 | .404 | .611 | 1.015 | 164 | 333 | 15 | 10 | 23 |
1962 | 26 | 162 | 701 | 609 | 134 | 208 | 51 | 2 | 39 | 136 | 18 | 9 | 76 | 62 | .342 | .421 | .624 | 1.045 | 172 | 380 | 13 | 11 | 16 |
1963 | 27 | 140 | 581 | 482 | 79 | 125 | 19 | 3 | 21 | 91 | 26 | 10 | 81 | 69 | .259 | .379 | .442 | .821 | 133 | 213 | 7 | 14 | 20 |
1964 | 28 | 156 | 662 | 568 | 103 | 174 | 38 | 6 | 29 | 96 | 23 | 5 | 79 | 67 | .306 | .396 | .548 | .943 | 160 | 311 | 13 | 9 | 20 |
1965 | 29 | 156 | 674 | 582 | 109 | 172 | 33 | 5 | 33 | 113 | 13 | 9 | 70 | 100 | .296 | .386 | .540 | .925 | 151 | 314 | 14 | 18 | 18 |
FR: 10 Yrs | 1502 | 6408 | 5527 | 1043 | 1673 | 318 | 50 | 324 | 1009 | 161 | 57 | 698 | 789 | .303 | .389 | .554 | .943 | 150 | 3063 | 136 | 118 | 129 | |
Year | Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | TB | GDP | HBP | IBB | |||||
MC: 10 Yrs* | 1513 | 6491 | 5683 | 960 | 1804 | 388 | 13 | 319 | 1123 | 35 | 18 | 707 | 1099 | .317 | .394 | .558 | .952 | 150 | 3177 | 197 | 42 | 159 | |
2003 | 20 | 87 | 346 | 314 | 39 | 84 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 84 | .268 | .325 | .468 | .793 | 106 | 147 | 12 | 2 | 3 |
2004 | 21 | 160 | 685 | 603 | 101 | 177 | 31 | 1 | 33 | 112 | 5 | 2 | 68 | 148 | .294 | .366 | .512 | .879 | 130 | 309 | 20 | 6 | 5 |
2005 | 22 | 158 | 685 | 613 | 106 | 198 | 43 | 2 | 33 | 116 | 1 | 0 | 64 | 125 | .323 | .385 | .561 | .947 | 151 | 344 | 20 | 2 | 12 |
2006 | 23 | 158 | 676 | 576 | 112 | 195 | 50 | 2 | 26 | 114 | 9 | 6 | 86 | 108 | .339 | .430 | .568 | .998 | 159 | 327 | 18 | 10 | 27 |
2007 | 24 | 157 | 680 | 588 | 91 | 188 | 38 | 2 | 34 | 119 | 2 | 1 | 79 | 127 | .320 | .401 | .565 | .965 | 150 | 332 | 17 | 5 | 23 |
2008 | 25 | 160 | 684 | 616 | 85 | 180 | 36 | 2 | 37 | 127 | 1 | 0 | 56 | 126 | .292 | .349 | .537 | .887 | 130 | 331 | 16 | 3 | 6 |
2009 | 26 | 160 | 685 | 611 | 96 | 198 | 34 | 0 | 34 | 103 | 6 | 2 | 68 | 107 | .324 | .396 | .547 | .942 | 144 | 334 | 22 | 5 | 14 |
2010 | 27 | 150 | 648 | 548 | 111 | 180 | 45 | 1 | 38 | 126 | 3 | 3 | 89 | 95 | .328 | .420 | .622 | 1.042 | 178 | 341 | 17 | 3 | 32 |
2011 | 28 | 161 | 688 | 572 | 111 | 197 | 48 | 0 | 30 | 105 | 2 | 1 | 108 | 89 | .344 | .448 | .586 | 1.033 | 179 | 335 | 24 | 3 | 22 |
2012 | 29 | 111 | 489 | 440 | 74 | 142 | 29 | 0 | 29 | 95 | 4 | 1 | 44 | 62 | .323 | .384 | .586 | .971 | 158 | 258 | 21 | 2 | 10 |
2012* | 29 | 162 | 714 | 642 | 108 | 207 | 42 | 0 | 42 | 139 | 6 | 1 | 64 | 90 | .323 | .384 | .586 | .971 | 158 | 377 | 31 | 3 | 15 |
MC: 10 Yrs | 1462 | 6266 | 5481 | 926 | 1739 | 375 | 13 | 306 | 1079 | 33 | 18 | 687 | 1071 | .317 | .394 | .558 | .952 | 150 | 3058 | 187 | 41 | 154 |
* See footnote for previous table.
I’ll show one more comparison in abbreviated form: Here are Mel Ott‘s totals through his 10th full season (i.e., through age 28), and Cabrera’s 10-year totals (again with the 2012 projections):
G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | TB | GDP | HBP | IBB | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ott: 10 Yrs* | 1589 | 6646 | 5621 | 1131 | 1775 | 313 | 55 | 306 | 1190 | 58 | ? | 917 | 469 | .316 | .415 | .554 | .969 | 155 | 3116 | ? | 32 | ? | |
MC: 10 Yrs* | 1513 | 6491 | 5683 | 960 | 1804 | 388 | 13 | 319 | 1123 | 35 | 18 | 707 | 1099 | .317 | .394 | .558 | .952 | 150 | 3177 | 197 | 42 | 159 |
Ott’s similarity score to Cabrera through age 28 is just 862, partly because his earlier start gave him some 230 more games than Cabrera at the same age. But using the “first 10 full years” standard, Ott may actually be the best comparison to Cabrera, considering not only their totals, but also the range of season HR and BA marks for both players in the covered years:
- BA highs — Ott’s three best were .349, .328 and .328; Cabrera’s are .344, .339 and .328.
- BA lows — Ott’s three worst were .283, .292 and .294; Cabrera’s are .268 (rookie half-year), .292 and .294.
- HR highs — Ott 42, 38, 35; Cabrera 42 (projected), 38, 37.
- HR lows — Ott 18, 23, 25; Cabrera 12 (rookie half-year), 26, 29.
Are there other past or present hitters whom you find similar to Miguel Cabrera, either statistically or visually?