Miggy, Henry & the Judge

Miguel Cabrera is in his 10th season. Just for fun, I compared his 10-year totals (projecting his 2012 rates to a full season) with those of Henry Aaron, who also debuted at age 20. Before you finish that derisive snort, let me state clearly that Aaron was without question:

  • a better hitter than Cabrera (8 points of OPS+ is significant);
  • a much better baserunner; and
  • a far more valuable player, considering defense.

That said, their hitting totals are still interesting:

Henry Aaron & Miguel Cabrera: 10-year totals*

Year Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP IBB
1954 20 122 509 468 58 131 27 6 13 69 2 2 28 39 .280 .322 .447 .769 104 209 13 3
1955 21 153 665 602 105 189 37 9 27 106 3 1 49 61 .314 .366 .540 .906 141 325 20 3 5
1956 22 153 660 609 106 200 34 14 26 92 2 4 37 54 .328 .365 .558 .923 151 340 21 2 6
1957 23 151 675 615 118 198 27 6 44 132 1 1 57 58 .322 .378 .600 .978 166 369 13 0 15
1958 24 153 664 601 109 196 34 4 30 95 4 1 59 49 .326 .386 .546 .931 152 328 21 1 16
1959 25 154 693 629 116 223 46 7 39 123 8 0 51 54 .355 .401 .636 1.037 182 400 19 4 17
1960 26 153 664 590 102 172 20 11 40 126 16 7 60 63 .292 .352 .566 .919 156 334 8 2 13
1961 27 155 671 603 115 197 39 10 34 120 21 9 56 64 .327 .381 .594 .974 163 358 16 2 20
1962 28 156 667 592 127 191 28 6 45 128 15 7 66 73 .323 .390 .618 1.008 170 366 14 3 14
1963 29 161 714 631 121 201 29 4 44 130 31 5 78 94 .319 .391 .586 .977 179 370 11 0 18
HA: 10 Yrs 1511 6582 5940 1077 1898 321 77 342 1121 103 37 541 609 .320 .375 .572 .947 158 3399 156 20 154
Year Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP IBB
MC: 10 Yrs* 1513 6491 5683 960 1804 388 13 319 1123 35 18 707 1099 .317 .394 .558 .952 150 3177 197 42 159
2003 20 87 346 314 39 84 21 3 12 62 0 2 25 84 .268 .325 .468 .793 106 147 12 2 3
2004 21 160 685 603 101 177 31 1 33 112 5 2 68 148 .294 .366 .512 .879 130 309 20 6 5
2005 22 158 685 613 106 198 43 2 33 116 1 0 64 125 .323 .385 .561 .947 151 344 20 2 12
2006 23 158 676 576 112 195 50 2 26 114 9 6 86 108 .339 .430 .568 .998 159 327 18 10 27
2007 24 157 680 588 91 188 38 2 34 119 2 1 79 127 .320 .401 .565 .965 150 332 17 5 23
2008 25 160 684 616 85 180 36 2 37 127 1 0 56 126 .292 .349 .537 .887 130 331 16 3 6
2009 26 160 685 611 96 198 34 0 34 103 6 2 68 107 .324 .396 .547 .942 144 334 22 5 14
2010 27 150 648 548 111 180 45 1 38 126 3 3 89 95 .328 .420 .622 1.042 178 341 17 3 32
2011 28 161 688 572 111 197 48 0 30 105 2 1 108 89 .344 .448 .586 1.033 179 335 24 3 22
2012 29 111 489 440 74 142 29 0 29 95 4 1 44 62 .323 .384 .586 .971 158 258 21 2 10
2012* 29 162 714 642 108 207 42 0 42 139 6 1 64 90 .323 .384 .586 .971 158 377 31 3 15
MC: 10 Yrs 1462 6266 5481 926 1739 375 13 306 1079 33 18 687 1071 .317 .394 .558 .952 150 3058 187 41 154
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com / Generated 8/9/2012.

* For the purpose of this comparison, I projected Cabrera’s 2012 rates over a full season. Both the actual and the projected numbers for 2012 are shown on separate lines in the table. The first totals for MC: 10 Yrs* (in the middle of the table, below Aaron’s totals) feature the 2012 projections; those on the bottom (MC: 10 Yrs, no asterisk) are Cabrera’s actual totals.

I considered also projecting Cabrera’s rookie stats to the same 122 games as played by the rookie Aaron, since Cabrera didn’t come up until almost half the year was gone, while Aaron started Opening Day. But the difference in rookie games is offset by Aaron’s 154-game schedule in 8 of the 10 years covered. The bigger point is that both played almost every game.

The main difference between their offensive packages was Aaron’s speed, shown by his edge in 3Bs, SB and Runs.

I’m surprised that Cabrera’s (projected) HR total is that close to Aaron’s, since Henry already had four 40-HR seasons, while Cabrera’s only such year is his projected 42 for this season.

By the way, I may have missed it, but I didn’t notice any fuss over Cabrera reaching 3,000 Total Bases on July 15. He’s the 11th player to get there by age 29, currently ranking 10th in that group, but he’ll pass Rogers Hornsby and Frank Robinson any day now to wind up 8th on the age-29 list by year’s end (and 6th or 7th for Total Bases in the first 10 years).

Speaking of Robinson, he’s #1 on Cabrera’s list of Similarity Scores through age 28 (score of 924; Aaron is #2 at 910). Here’s the Robinson/Cabrera comparison, in the same format as before:

Frank Robinson & Miguel Cabrera: 10-year totals

Year Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP IBB
1956 20 152 667 572 122 166 27 6 38 83 8 4 64 95 .290 .379 .558 .936 143 319 14 20 7
1957 21 150 677 611 97 197 29 5 29 75 10 2 44 92 .322 .376 .529 .905 135 323 13 12 5
1958 22 148 623 554 90 149 25 6 31 83 10 1 62 80 .269 .350 .504 .854 118 279 13 7 5
1959 23 146 626 540 106 168 31 4 36 125 18 8 69 93 .311 .391 .583 .975 153 315 16 8 9
1960 24 139 562 464 86 138 33 6 31 83 13 6 82 67 .297 .407 .595 1.002 169 276 18 9 6
1961 25 153 635 545 117 176 32 7 37 124 22 3 71 64 .323 .404 .611 1.015 164 333 15 10 23
1962 26 162 701 609 134 208 51 2 39 136 18 9 76 62 .342 .421 .624 1.045 172 380 13 11 16
1963 27 140 581 482 79 125 19 3 21 91 26 10 81 69 .259 .379 .442 .821 133 213 7 14 20
1964 28 156 662 568 103 174 38 6 29 96 23 5 79 67 .306 .396 .548 .943 160 311 13 9 20
1965 29 156 674 582 109 172 33 5 33 113 13 9 70 100 .296 .386 .540 .925 151 314 14 18 18
FR: 10 Yrs 1502 6408 5527 1043 1673 318 50 324 1009 161 57 698 789 .303 .389 .554 .943 150 3063 136 118 129
Year Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP IBB
MC: 10 Yrs* 1513 6491 5683 960 1804 388 13 319 1123 35 18 707 1099 .317 .394 .558 .952 150 3177 197 42 159
2003 20 87 346 314 39 84 21 3 12 62 0 2 25 84 .268 .325 .468 .793 106 147 12 2 3
2004 21 160 685 603 101 177 31 1 33 112 5 2 68 148 .294 .366 .512 .879 130 309 20 6 5
2005 22 158 685 613 106 198 43 2 33 116 1 0 64 125 .323 .385 .561 .947 151 344 20 2 12
2006 23 158 676 576 112 195 50 2 26 114 9 6 86 108 .339 .430 .568 .998 159 327 18 10 27
2007 24 157 680 588 91 188 38 2 34 119 2 1 79 127 .320 .401 .565 .965 150 332 17 5 23
2008 25 160 684 616 85 180 36 2 37 127 1 0 56 126 .292 .349 .537 .887 130 331 16 3 6
2009 26 160 685 611 96 198 34 0 34 103 6 2 68 107 .324 .396 .547 .942 144 334 22 5 14
2010 27 150 648 548 111 180 45 1 38 126 3 3 89 95 .328 .420 .622 1.042 178 341 17 3 32
2011 28 161 688 572 111 197 48 0 30 105 2 1 108 89 .344 .448 .586 1.033 179 335 24 3 22
2012 29 111 489 440 74 142 29 0 29 95 4 1 44 62 .323 .384 .586 .971 158 258 21 2 10
2012* 29 162 714 642 108 207 42 0 42 139 6 1 64 90 .323 .384 .586 .971 158 377 31 3 15
MC: 10 Yrs 1462 6266 5481 926 1739 375 13 306 1079 33 18 687 1071 .317 .394 .558 .952 150 3058 187 41 154
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com / Generated 8/9/2012.

* See footnote for previous table.

I’ll show one more comparison in abbreviated form: Here are Mel Ott‘s totals through his 10th full season (i.e., through age 28), and Cabrera’s 10-year totals (again with the 2012 projections):

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP IBB
Ott: 10 Yrs* 1589 6646 5621 1131 1775 313 55 306 1190 58 ? 917 469 .316 .415 .554 .969 155 3116 ? 32 ?
MC: 10 Yrs* 1513 6491 5683 960 1804 388 13 319 1123 35 18 707 1099 .317 .394 .558 .952 150 3177 197 42 159
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com / Generated 8/9/2012.

Ott’s similarity score to Cabrera through age 28 is just 862, partly because his earlier start gave him some 230 more games than Cabrera at the same age. But using the “first 10 full years” standard, Ott may actually be the best comparison to Cabrera, considering not only their totals, but also the range of season HR and BA marks for both players in the covered years:

  • BA highs — Ott’s three best were .349, .328 and .328; Cabrera’s are .344, .339 and .328.
  • BA lows — Ott’s three worst were .283, .292 and .294; Cabrera’s are .268 (rookie half-year), .292 and .294.
  • HR highs — Ott 42, 38, 35; Cabrera 42 (projected), 38, 37.
  • HR lows — Ott 18, 23, 25; Cabrera 12 (rookie half-year), 26, 29.

Are there other past or present hitters whom you find similar to Miguel Cabrera, either statistically or visually?

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Doug
Editor
12 years ago

Here are a couple of 3rd basemen.

Rk Player HR OPS+ WAR/pos PA From To Age G AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Eddie Mathews 370 154 65.5 6481 1952 1961 20-29 1482 5466 1032 1548 223 55 992 930 886 55 26 .283 .387 .547 .934
2 Mike Schmidt 314 149 65.0 5592 1972 1981 22-31 1336 4615 856 1216 227 41 878 851 1148 141 63 .263 .380 .535 .914
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/9/2012.
Brooklyn Mick
Brooklyn Mick
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

It’s hard to believe that Eddie Mathews had to wait until his fifth year of eligibility to get voted into the Hall. The luster of the 500 homer plateau is diminished these days due to the steroid era, hitter friendly parks, etc. But when Matthews stroked number 500 he was only the seventh player in history to accomplish the feat, and the first full-time third baseman to do so.

Doug
Doug
12 years ago
Reply to  Brooklyn Mick

The other interesting thing about Mathew’s no. 500 was that it was in a game against the Giants on 7-14-67. With Mays and Mathews together, it was only the second time with two 500 HR players appearing. It would be the only game with Mays and Mathews appearing before Mathews went to Detroit a month later. In Detroit, Mathews would make a 3rd time for this peculiarity, appearing with Mantle on 9-25-67. Incidentally, the first time was Mel Ott and Jimmie Foxx on 8-5-45.

Brooklyn Mick
Brooklyn Mick
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Interesting indeed. Also, Matthew’s #500 was off Juan Maricial. I wonder how many players hit #500 off a Hall of Famer?

Brooklyn Mick
Brooklyn Mick
12 years ago
Reply to  Brooklyn Mick

I spoke too soon…Eddie Matthews stands alone as the only player to ever hit home run #500 off a Hall of Fame pitcher.
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hi500c.shtml

Brooklyn Mick
Brooklyn Mick
12 years ago

Interesting comparisons. The first name that popped into my head concerning other similar players is Frank Thomas. Is it possible to do a comparison chart?

Doug
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Brooklyn Mick

Here is Thomas.

Rk Player HR OPS+ WAR/pos From To Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Frank Thomas 301 169 50.6 1990 1999 22-31 1371 6092 4892 968 1564 317 10 1040 1076 741 28 18 .320 .440 .573 1.013
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/9/2012.
Brooklyn Mick
Brooklyn Mick
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Thank you Doug.

Brooklyn Mick
Brooklyn Mick
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Thank you John. What intrigues me about the comparison between Miggy and Hurt is obviously their respective physical statures. When you suggested a visual comparison I took it literally. They were/are both huge right handed power hitters with power to all fields who hit for a high average, drive in runs by the bushel, have high OBP’s, are slow footed, and limited defensively.

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  Brooklyn Mick

He’s not Brooks Robinson, but he is better defensively than people give him credit for. He has a rifle of an arm for one thing, and accurate as well.

Hartvig
Hartvig
12 years ago

I’m surprised that Albert Belle doesn’t rank as a better comp to Cabrera. He did get a later start and his first 2 partial seasons skew the averages a lot if your looking at per season instead of per 162 games but over Belle’s 10 full seasons the numbers are pretty similar (although as with Cabrera and Aaron, not QUITE as good). In reality, when I was growing up Aaron was never considered to be quite in the same class as Mantle or Mays, at least until the Braves moved to Atlanta and Aaron continued to put up similar numbers… Read more »

Chad
Chad
12 years ago

As with JA’s disclaimer, I realize that Cabrera is not as good as Pujols. I’m not saying he is. However, Pujols is the guy that most reminds me of Cabrera. Cabrera is pretty close to one of the 10 best right-handed hitters of all-time (at this point in time), but has been overshadowed by the other-worldly career that Pujols has had. Others: ARod had much better power numbers through his first 10 full seasons, but his OPS+ was 149, or 1 point lower than Miggy. Manny Ramirez also comes to mind. His OPS+ for his first 10 seasons of 100+… Read more »

PP
PP
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Can you do a table for players who started (?) their careers from 1960 to 1984? Just to see what the numbers look like?

Also, I’m not a Pujols fan, but that table makes a big statement.

Paul E
Paul E
12 years ago
Reply to  PP

PP:
I believe the highest OPS+ for that period would go to Dick Allen @ 164 over Frank Robinson @ 159 and a bunch of other Hall of Famers

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago
Reply to  PP

If you consider just the player’s first 10 years during that time period Eddie Murray is the only one who makes the list with OPS+ = 143 and 1015 RBIs.

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

So…what exactly is the trick to formatting tables in comments? Still stumped by that. Thanks

Doug
Doug
12 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

You create the table somewhere else, and save in HTML format. Then copy the HTML code directly into your comment.

Jim Bouldin
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Ah!
Thanks Doug.

wilsonm24
wilsonm24
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

It will be real interesting to look at Cabrera after next season and compare 21-30 age seasons.

His first year half season numbers are dropping him quite a bit in these charts, especially when you look at OPS+ (his was 106). It won’t get him up their with Pujols or Thomas, but he will probably jump over everyone else on this list.

Will probably also move him up on most of the counting stats as well.

bstar
12 years ago

What Miggy, The Hammer, and The Judge really have in common is that peak value is not their most important attribute; consistency is.

The history of MLB is littered with players who can be really good/great for for four or five years but don’t have the consistency to pull it off year after year after year. This is one thing that separates the great careers from the very good.

For some reason, consistency has begun to take a backseat to peak value, but I think the former is a much rarer accomplishment.

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

bstar, I’m not quite sure consistency has taken a backseat to peak value, although I understand what you mean. In the cases of players like Aaron and Cabrera, what makes them great is their consistency, but it’s also consistency at a high level to the point where it’s all peak. What is their peak? Of course, in the case of Miggy, the real test of greatness is still to come. It’s maintaining an elite level of performance well into his 30s. The great compilers (and, yes, uber-great players are also compilers) have that extra kick. Aaron didn’t fade when many… Read more »

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

“What is their peak?” Well, in terms that relate to my statement about peak value, it means a player’s five best years, or seven, or whatever. I’m sure you know that. But in Aaron and Miggy’s and Stan Musial’s cases, as you also point out, there isn’t much distinction between their greatest years and their other seasons. Ignoring this almost entirely, many authors/writers/fans/bloggers have placed higher value on a player’s best years instead of overall production over the length of one’s career. So players like Cabrera/Aaron/Musial have their entire careers slightly devalued for that reason, and I don’t agree with… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Agreed. When I asked “what is their peak?” it was almost rhetorical. For a player like Aaron, it’s almost all peak up until age finally does become a problem. This can be applied to other elite players at different positions, starting pitchers, even at least one reliever. If I look a Mariano Rivera, I would ask the same rhetorical question: What is his peak? The answer is it’s pretty much all peak. Regarding Miggy, yes he would have to increase his HR rate, yet that illustrates the difficulty in trying to predict what any player will do as he ages.… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Yes, I was referring to what appears to be a little extra body weight and then attempting to extrapolate on what that will mean in his 30s. There is also the question of his extra curricular activities. Hopefully he has that part of his life under control. It doesn’t get easier, it gets more difficult as a player ages. That said, his ability to play pretty much every day does mean something. Health is a skill. I’d place my bet on the guy who is a little pudgy but has the track record of playing daily than the guy who… Read more »

BryanM
BryanM
12 years ago

The Henry-Miggy comparison above is fascinating; Henry’s 103/37 SB/CS line would be interpreted by many as essentially break-even in the baserunning department; but as is rightly pointed out above, Aaron was an excellent baserunner, as evidenced by his over 100 run advantage in the (projected ) runs scored department, with fewer times on base , and a slightly worse offensive context. Just another reason to pay a bit more attention to RS as an indicator of a player’s contribution to his team , effort and intelligence in base running is an underappreciated value in the stats community, I believe.

BryanM
BryanM
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

John , thanks for that , I wasn’t certain it was that close, and of course part of Henry’s RS advantage comes from better power (more HR and 3B ) but can’t miss a chance to push for RS as a “team player” stat – some guys think their job’s done when they reach base , others are just too slow to help, but a winner keeps his intensity on the bases.. look at Albert vs , Belle, Manny and Piazza in the “r” column in your @11 above…..

BryanM
BryanM
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Agreed — no implied disrespect to Piazza — Catchers are the hardest players to evaluate against other position players – so much of their job, if done well, shows up in pitcher’s stats – over a long career, maybe WL% would be meaningful.

deal
12 years ago

While looking at Cabrera’s page I noticed his ELO Rank is only 3 higher then Chase Utley’s (158 v 161). Yet if you look at Cabrera’s top 10 compares for his current age he has 6 HoFs and they are big time HoF members Aaron, F Robinson, Mantle.

While Utley only has one HoF in his matches and that is Joe Gordon.

Utley is further into his career age wise, but has less career experience because of college and injuries.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Unfortunately lots of people do just that! (i.e., make HOF judgments based on similarity scores).

Another issue…several of Utley’s comps are outfielders and third basemen which obviously muddies the water.

Anyway, I have a hard time seeing Utley making the HOF. I have a feeling he’ll slip through the cracks a la Trammell, Whitaker, Grich, etc. His performance in MVP voting is stunningly poor given his overall contribution to the Phillies recent success particularly vis a vis a certain Mr. Howard.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

From 2005 to 2010, Utley was probably the second best player in MLB, behind only Albert Pujols. I say that not strictly based on WAR, but because: you’ve got here an excellent defensive second baseman who is one of the best hitters in the NL that period, and also an outstanding baserunner, on an excellent team. I agree with you both in the MVP voting and his HOF chances. It should’ve been _him_ , and not his Phillies team mates Howard or Rollins who won an MVP. From 2006-2009 he was 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd in NL WAR, but only… Read more »

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

The ’07-’09 MVP voting for Utley and Howard are so comically bad it’s hard to know how to respond. Here are their OPS+ for each of the three years: 2007 Howard 144 Utley 146 2008 Howard 125 Utley 136 2009 Howard 141 Utley 137 So we have: 1) A second baseman hitting at the same level as a first baseman. 2)They’re teammates so that washes out. 3) Utley’s a far better baserunner. 4) Utley plays a more important defensive position and plays it well. Howard plays a far less important position and doesn’t play it well. And yet here’s how… Read more »

deal
12 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

This rarely gets mentioned and I am not sure if it is covered at all Nationally, but Utley isn’t real reporter friendly. May be a factor in the MVP voting.

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

…and there is certainly some correlation between MVP voting and HOF voting. Gordon was league MVP one year (’42), finished in the top ten five times, and received MVP votes in nine of his elevens seasons. The only years he didn’t were his final season, and his first year back from the war when a spectacular string of injuries (perhaps caused by rust and being away from the game for two years) limited his performance, ultimately leading to his trade to the Indians. Gordon was a 25-30 HR-hitting second baseman and an elite defender, a player who would fit in… Read more »

Ed
Ed
12 years ago

As if on cue, we have Jim Leyland coming out today and saying that Cabrera deserves the MVP over Trout because Cabrera’s been around longer and has a better track record. Gah!!! Earth to Jim Leyland, come in Jim Leyland! It’s the MVP award. For this season!!!!!!!!! It’s not a freaking career award and what someone has or hasn’t done in prior seasons should have 0 impact. Period! I hereby nominate Jim Leyland for stupid person of the day.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8252517/detroit-tigers-jim-leyland-miguel-cabrera-deserves-mvp-mike-trout

Max
Max
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

If supporting one of his stars (over an opponent) makes Jim Leyland the stupid person of the day, I’m sure he’d be fine with that.

He’s a manager, not a commentator. He’s not supposed to be impartial.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Lighten up a bit – Leyland is just doing his job, which is to stick up for his player. Also, Cabrera has played more games (112/89), which is not insignificant. If Trout continues to play well, but comes down to earth from his 182 OPS+, and Cabrera just maintains his current pace of 156 OPS+ (which isn’t much better than his career 150 OPS+), it could be a lot closer than it looks now. I agree that Trout is the MVP now, but there’s still about 50 games to go, and Cabrera has a vastly longer established record of excellence… Read more »

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Lawrence and Max – I didn’t say that Cabrera couldn’t/shouldn’t/wouldn’t win the MVP. Nor did I say that Leyland shouldn’t support his players. However, Leyland’s reasoning IS stupid. One can make plenty of legitimate arguments re: for Cabrera for MVP. Leyland’s isn’t one of them.

rea
rea
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Leyland’s point was that the tendency of journalists to get carried away with their narrative gives somebody like Trout the Amazing Rookie an advantage in MVP voting over someone like Cabrera, who has been performing at this level for 10 years. If you had to bet on which one is more likely to maintain his present level of performance for the rest of the season, you’d have to go with Cabrera, due to his track record.

Mike Felber
12 years ago

Right, it is against the latter & spirit of the award to make it anything but performance for the year & question. It is not a career achievement award, even in part.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago
Reply to  Mike Felber

I have a vague memory of reading somewhere that Charley Gehringer’s 1937 award was partially motivated by recognition of his accomplishments for prior years. In his 5 previous years he finished in the top ten every year but could not quite reach the top spot. Many people thought that DiMaggio and Greenberg had better years.

no statistician but
no statistician but
12 years ago

RC:

Don’t forget Lou Gehrig. His stats were about the same overall as Greenberg’s and DiMaggio’s. So you have three sluggers all very close and one middle infielder who won the batting title and may have performed more impressively in the eyes of the voters. Gehringer got 75% of the first place votes, DiMaggio, 25%. Greenberg and Gehrig already had MVP awards, too, and that sometimes sways voters when performance levels are nearly equal: give it one of the guys who hasn’t won it before.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago

Thanks for mentioning Gehrig. I scrolled through the MVP voting for that award and Gehringer, DiMaggio, Greenberg and Gehrig were the top 4 in the MVP voting. What was strange was the fifth place finish. Bill Dickey and Luke Sewell tied for that position, but the differences in their stats were amazing. Next to Dickey Sewell looked like a minor-leaguer. Take a peek.

no statistician but
no statistician but
12 years ago

1) Luke Sewell and Rick Ferrell— contemporaries, catchers, brothers of much better players, somehow the sportswriters were charmed by them.

2) Sewell was about the fourth best player on his own team that year, not including pitchers. Call it charisma.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
12 years ago
Reply to  Mike Felber

It happens. Apart from Richard’s point about Gehringer, Willie Stargell’s 1979 MVP (or share of it) was recognized at the time as a lifetime achievement award, voted in recognition of past near misses. Any award vote opens the door for sentiment, and I’m not sure that’s actually against the spirit of the MVP, at least in close cases (1979 was not even close, and would have been more problematic had the tie not allowed a legitimate contender to share it). It depends whose spirit you take to be definitive.

Mike Felber
12 years ago

The spirit I take to be definitive is who adds the most value, with none of the nonsense about favoring guys who happen to be on a team good enough for them to make the post season. You should neither suffer for being on a mediocre or worse team, nor be denied because you won however many times before. Mays, Musial, Mantle should have won a lot more. If it is so close you honestly cannot tell who deserves it, OK< give it to the new guy. If the awards are to be respected maximally as achievement based, give 'em… Read more »