Derek Jeter IS having a very unusual season…

Derek Jeter / USPRESSWIRE

Admist the allegations about Derek Jeter this morning, I thought I’d check just how unusual his late-career resurgence is.

There have been only 20 players since 1901 to post an OPS+ between 89 and 97 in their Age 36 and 37 seasons (combined, minimum 1000 plate appearances.) Derek Jeter, over 2010-2011, is the most recent:

Rk	Player	OPS+	PA	From	To	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Derek Jeter	93	1346	2010	2011	195	16	128	.282	.347	.378	.725	*6/D	NYY
2	Garret Anderson	92	1127	2008	2009	118	28	145	.281	.315	.418	.733	*7/D	LAA-ATL
3	Mark Grudzielanek	96	1072	2006	2007	155	13	103	.300	.338	.417	.754	*4/6	KCR
4	Jeromy Burnitz	89	1014	2005	2006	119	40	136	.248	.311	.430	.742	*9/8	CHC-PIT
5	Bernie Williams	90	1008	2005	2006	118	24	125	.264	.326	.399	.725	*8/9D7	NYY
6	Craig Biggio	92	1372	2002	2003	198	30	120	.259	.340	.408	.749	*84/7	HOU
7	Benito Santiago	90	1032	2001	2002	95	22	119	.270	.305	.409	.715	*2/3	SFG
8	Brady Anderson	89	1119	2000	2001	139	27	95	.232	.346	.365	.712	/897D	BAL
9	Cal Ripken	91	1345	1997	1998	144	31	145	.271	.331	.396	.727	*5/6	BAL
10	Ryne Sandberg	91	1101	1996	1997	139	37	156	.253	.313	.426	.738	*4/D	CHC
11	Robin Yount	97	1143	1992	1993	133	16	128	.261	.325	.385	.710	*8/D3	MIL
12	Dave Parker	96	1058	1987	1988	120	38	152	.255	.312	.422	.734	*9/D73	CIN-OAK
13	Bill Buckner	90	1179	1986	1987	112	23	176	.275	.312	.397	.709	*3/D	BOS-TOT
14	Dave Kingman	97	1270	1985	1986	136	65	185	.225	.283	.424	.707	*D/3	OAK
15	Willie Horton	96	1080	1979	1980	109	37	142	.259	.319	.414	.733	*D	SEA
16	Luis Aparicio	89	1157	1970	1971	142	9	88	.275	.331	.357	.687	*6	CHW-BOS
17	Al Dark	91	1117	1958	1959	121	10	93	.281	.339	.374	.713	*5/63	TOT-CHC
18	George Sisler	91	1154	1929	1930	121	5	146	.319	.357	.413	.770	*3	BSN
19	Jimmy Austin	93	1042	1916	1917	116	1	47	.224	.326	.298	.624	*5/6	SLB
20	George Stovall	89	1017	1914	1915	99	7	119	.257	.305	.341	.646	*3/5	KCP

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/23/2012.

Here’s what each of these guys did in their next season (Age 38):

Rk	Player	OPS+	Year	Tm	G	PA	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Cal Ripken	144	1999	BAL	86	354	51	18	57	.340	.368	.584	.952	*5
2	Derek Jeter	119	2012	NYY	122	561	78	13	43	.324	.364	.450	.815	*6D
3	Dave Parker	110	1989	OAK	144	600	56	22	97	.264	.308	.432	.741	*D/9
4	Jimmy Austin	109	1918	SLB	110	441	42	0	20	.264	.359	.324	.683	*65
5	Craig Biggio	105	2004	HOU	156	700	100	24	63	.281	.337	.469	.806	*78/D
6	Mark Grudzielanek	99	2008	KCR	86	360	36	3	24	.299	.345	.399	.743	*4
7	Benito Santiago	96	2003	SFG	108	434	53	11	56	.279	.329	.424	.753	*2
8	Luis Aparicio	88	1972	BOS	110	474	47	3	39	.257	.299	.351	.649	*6
9	Al Dark	87	1960	TOT	105	373	45	4	32	.265	.321	.351	.672	*573/4
10	Bill Buckner	73	1988	TOT	108	311	19	3	43	.249	.287	.330	.616	D3
11	Brady Anderson	59	2002	CLE	34	101	4	1	5	.163	.327	.250	.577	87/9D
12	Garret Anderson	29	2010	LAD	80	163	8	2	12	.181	.204	.271	.475	7/9

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/23/2012.

Ripken had his last great (or even good) season although he played only a little more than half a season. A few other guys were really good. And there there were the Anderson Twins–two supremely overrated players both coming in at the bottom. Of course, that’s better than the 8 other guys who didn’t even play at Age 38 (including Yount, Bernie Williams, and Horton.)

So what Jeter is doing this year is not unprecedented–just nearly unprecedented. 🙂

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Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

I hear that he drank unicorn blood.

‘Course, that’s just hearsay from the centaur who used to play next to him….

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

JA, it wasn’t unicorn blood. This kind of garbage comment has no place on this blog.

It was the blood of Pegasus 🙂

Matthew Glidden

12 years ago

Kingman’s 65 homers pop out from that list. Amazing to see his overall slugging % under guys who hit less than half that.

nightfly

12 years ago

Reply to Matthew Glidden

The 65 dingers (and 185 rbi, both top of the table) do stand out, but I think you may have mixed columns. Kong is third on the list in slugging (.424) barely behind Ryne Sandberg and Jeromy Burnitz. He does, however, have the absolute lowest OBA on that list, and by a fair margin: .283, the only number lower than .300 (Stovall and Santiago check in at .305 each).

Mike L

12 years ago

Oh, goodie. Jeter rumors. Can’t get more of a Melky match than Derek Jeter.

nightfly

12 years ago

Reply to Mike L

Seconded. I can’t stand the Jeter hagiography, but the man is a legitimately great player, certain HoF material, and people are getting worked up over him for… well, what exactly, I don’t know. It’s not like he suddenly hit forty homers this year. He’s always been a high-average guy with a lot of singles. Almost nothing he’s done this year seems out of line with his career profile, it’s just that the last two years his BABip was down (.307 and .336, and this year it’s back up to about where he usually is (.351 vs career of .355).

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to nightfly

Skip Bayless doesn’t count as people!

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Mike L

W-H-A-T allegations? Did Skip Bayless actually say that he suspected Jeter of using PEDs because of his resurgence this year?? If so, #6 and #13 have got it about right…

To paraphrase Bryce Harper, “That’s a clown statement, bro!”

Andrew

12 years ago

Jeter’s season isn’t THAT markedly different from Parker or Biggio’s – these “allegations” aren’t anything more than Skip Bayless being a clown.

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to Andrew

I think Biggio is a pretty good comp- his decline starting at 34 years old was even more pronounced that Jeter’s and he managed to come back and put up an OPS+ of over 100 in his 28th & 39th years. I suspect that if you were to expand the parameters a little bit and reduced the number of plate appearances to 800 it would be a whole lot less uncommon. It is sad though that when someone does something like this PED’s almost automatically come to mind. Still, Bayless was way off base for even mentioning it with ZERO… Read more »

Mike L

12 years ago

Seriously, there’s only one thing about Jeter that seems different to me this year, which is that he seems to be pulling a little more for power. Maybe he’s cheating a bit compared to the way he used to hit to compensate for slowing reflexes.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Here’s where Jeter is getting it done, and getting it done with power:

Vs lefties:

.378 .405 .598 1.002

as 1st batter of the game:

.393 .409 .607 1.016

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

He is clearly being more aggressive.

2012

SO%
11.6%

BB%
5.4%

Career

SO%
14.7%

BB%
8.7%

Brooklyn Mick

12 years ago

If Skip really wanted to sensationalize so he could trend on Twitter, he should have picked on one of the true good guys who is beyond reproach, like the other Cabrera who plays opposite in the infield from a Prince. Surely no one would believe that. Silly Skip.

Pat O'Dougherty

12 years ago

Jeter is now one of ten yankees this season with 13 or more home runs. By season’s end it could easily be 10 with 15 or more home runs. I wonder if that’s the @min home run record for ten players on a team.(“@min” is what I call records dealing with the highest of the lowest)

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Pat O'Dougherty

The most players with 15 HR is 9, by the Rangers and Indians, both in 2005. The most by a Yankees team is 8, in 1998, 2000, 2004 and 2009.

This year’s 10 Yankees with 13 HRs is the most ever at that level (and it’s still August).

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

It’s also 10 Yankees each of whom has more HRs than the team total of triples, which is 11.

birtelcom

12 years ago

I’m not sure it’s quite fair to limit the comparables to guys who were hitting below average at ages 36-37. Hitting stats do jump around some from year to year, based on random noise, even for old guys. It is certainly not unprecedented for a guy who had an OPS+ around 121 through age 35 (that was Jeter’s career OPS+ through age 35) to squeeze out a year around his career level (or better) at age 38. Ron Cey and Darrell Evans put up OPS+ numbers of 138 at age 38. Ron Fairly had a 124 OPS+ year at age… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Seems like a fair point. Until I saw Andy’s post, I didn’t really view Jeter’s season as unprecedented, and after thinking about it a bit more, I still don’t when viewed in the context of his entire career. Jeter’s greatest strength through his career was his seasonal, metronome-like consistency over the first fourteen years of his career. If not for his ’10 and ’11 seasons, we wouldn’t even be noticing Jeter right now because this season fits in perfectly fine with his overall body of work. His 119 OPS+ this season is right at his career average, and indeed as… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

BTW My post was in response to birtelcom’s. Not sure why it didn’t nest under his.

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

Great points. It’s easy to forget that the moment Jeter got his 3000th hit, in July of 2011, his performance suddenly went through the roof. In the 162 games starting with that game, he had, I believe, 200 hits on the button.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Starting with the game of his 3000th hit Jeter accumulated 90 hits in 65 games. In his first 97 games of 2012 he accumulated 128 hits for a 162 game total of 218. These are only games in which he participated.

Pathetic

12 years ago

If you consider yourself a journalist, or want to be one, you better work a lot harder. Your analysis blows and this seems to be a pathetic attempt to piggyback off a ridiculous comment by a moron who provides “insight” for a company (ESPN) that constantly reminds everyone they are all about the ratings. I hope Derek Jeter and the Yankees seek some kind of liebel restitution in the form of people just shutting their damn mouths unless they have something to say worth hearing, not just trying to make a name for themself. You’re going to fall in the… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Pathetic

If you’re upset with Bayless’ comments, then take it to ESPN. Yes, you’re right. ESPN and Bayless were just stirring the pot, looking for more clicks, viewers and eyeballs. Bayless basically even said at the end of the interview he wasn’t being serious. This is a blog, and using ESPN as a jumping-off point to discuss Jeter’s fine season at age 38, and where he fits statistically is not only fair game, it’s what this blog is about. Before posting again, you might want to understand the difference between blogs and other outlets, and what this community is about. The… Read more »

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

The interesting thing about the comment you reference is that it doesn’t seem to be in response to my actual post. My post doesn’t make any judgments about Jeter—it’s just a list of statistical facts. I don’t think my post really has much to do with Bayless’ comments one way or the other.

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

True, I did notice he was referencing things not in your post, or even in the thread of notes, hence why I said go take it up with ESPN. Yet logically it seemed to be directed toward your post, but therein lies the problem. I was attempting to find logic in his note, where none existed.

I should have followed my initial instinct of not saying anything at all. I also considered it possible he was just trolling.

Nash Bruce

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

very good response, MikeD………

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Pathetic

Agree with the characterization of any accusation of PED use that is based solely on succesful performance and nothing else, especially when it is made on a forum of enormous influence such as ESPN. Such an acusation is totally irresponsible. But I would also point out that it is almost certainly NOT something that a major league ballplayer could win a lawsuit on under American law. MLB players are public figures under American defamation law and for public figures to win a lawsuit for defamation they have to prove not just that the claim was false but that the accuser… Read more »

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Especially a suit for “liebel”

Daniel Longmire

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

So this angry poster, who chooses to remain anonymous, uses his constitutionally enshrined right to free speech to endorse lawsuits that would coerce people to “shut their damn mouths.” Makes sense to me.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Pathetic

“What’s in a name?”

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to Pathetic

Apparently a lot, at least in this case.

Bayless’ comments are inexcusable but as Andy has clearly shown, Jeter’s performance this season- based on historical precedents- is unusual.

And kudo’s to MikeD @ 18- your explanation puts a lot of things into perspective and goes a long way towards providing a reason for this unusual occurrence.

Jimbo

12 years ago

I mentioned this very early in the season, I never thought it would last.

Jeter has a very strong chance now of leading this season in hits, while also starting (and obviously ending) the season as the active hits leader. I believe we looked this up and nobody since Pete Rose had pulled it off.

Very impressive if he puts up his 8th career 200 hit season.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

Besides Rose (1981), only others to do it since 1901 are Stan Musial (1952) and Ty Cobb (1919).

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

I do remember that discussion, Jimbo.

Jeter needs 31 hits in the Yankees’ last 38 games to reach 200. In his worst hitting month this year, June, Jeter batted .232 and still got 26 hits in 26 games played.

Barring injury, he looks like a pretty solid bet for 200 hits this year.

Editor

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Jeter needs 40 more hits for the most ever in an age 38 season. If he gets to 200, he’ll be the 4th to do so in an age 38 season, joining Rose, Jake Daubert and Sam Rice. Jeter needs only 13 more hits to best Honus Wagner for most hits by a 38 year-old shortstop.

Howard

12 years ago

Brady Anderson is “supremely overrated”? He did poorly in MVP voting even when he hit fifty HRs, was only named to three all-star teams, never won a gold glove and you hardly hear his name any more, at least outside of Baltimore. That’s not the resume of a supremely overrated player.

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Howard

Yeah, in Brady’s case I meant that the general public overrates him because of that 50 HR season. Garret is overrated even among ardent fans due to high RBI totals (ala Joe Carter).

Howard

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Understood though I think because of that 50 HR season he is seen more as an underachiever for the rest of his career rather than overrated. For that one season he actually was about as good as the general perception public’s perception of him. No need to explain about Garret who I agree was supremely overrated.

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Howard

Fair point. I just get such a bad taste in my mouth when I think about either Anderson–I probably overgeneralized with my original statement.

John Nacca

12 years ago

Skip Bayless is only one reason….albeit the biggest one…….I do not watch ESPN what-so-ever. He himself negates at least 1000 decent people on network television….ALL network television, from announcers to color guys to “on course golf analysts” to camera operators to boom mike holders, etc.

Mark in Sydney

12 years ago

Breaking news!

Have you checked Ichiro’s numbers since joining the Bombers? With Seattle he hit 1HR/100PA, with NY it is 1HR/30PA. Clearly there is something in the Kool-aid. It can be the only explanation.

Jimbo

12 years ago

Reply to Mark in Sydney

Safeco field just kills power numbers. I’ve often felt that teams with parks like Safeco should only invest big bucks in pitchers. Hitters go to San Diego, Seattle, and San Francisco to die. Their numbers disappoint them, they press, etc.

Those teams should invest heavily in pitching, and fill up on cheap speedy players like Juan Pierre, Rajai Davis, etc.

Conversely, lefties like Curtis Granderson thrive in the new Yankee Stadium. Ichiro’s home runs should have surprised nobody.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Mark in Sydney

I think Ichiro’s HRs as a Yankee have more to do with that jetstream from home plate to the short porch in right field.

Nash Bruce

12 years ago

Sooooo……..altho, often times, this has no basis in reality(as we all know), any over/under on the amount of MVP support/votes that Jeter gets this year??

Tmckelv

12 years ago

Reply to Nash Bruce

If he keeps up his August numbers the rest of the season he might get a top 10 finish, but he won’t come close to winning. Especially if the Yanks don’t win the division.

He lost out in 2006 and 2009 when I felt he had real chances of winning the MVP.
2006 – 2nd place – he had 5.4 WAR (Morneau 4.0)
2009 – 3rd place – he had 6.4 WAR (Mauer 7.6, Teixeira 5.1).

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