Déjà vu – all over again

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As has already been remarked upon, the rookie seasons of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are reminding a lot of people of earlier rookie seasons way back in 1951 by two players who would become first ballot HOFers. The similarities include the players being the same ages, playing the same positions, and being in different leagues. Potentially, Trout and Harper could face each other in the post season, as happened with the earlier pair in 1951.

After the jump, I’ll look more at the similarities, and differences, in these pairs of players 61 seasons removed from each other.

Firstly, the players from 1951 are, of course, Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle. Right now, the matched pairs look to be Trout and Mays, and Harper and Mantle. Here is what those pairs look like.

Player	Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	Pos
Willie Mays	1951	20	NYG	121	523	464	59	127	22	5	20	68	7	4	57	60	.274	.356	.472	.828	120	*8O
Mike Trout	2012	20	LAA	94	433	381	91	130	22	5	21	65	37	3	40	88	.341	.404	.591	.995	179	*87/9

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 8/15/2012.

Quite remarkable to see how close the counting stats are for the two at this moment, though Trout has compiled his in 90 fewer PAs, resulting in his much superior rate stats and OPS+. However, Trout has had the advantage over Mays of getting his feet wet last season, whereas Mays had never played before his rookie season. Their actual debut ages are also very close, a month shy of his 20th birthday for Trout and 3 weeks after his 20th birthday for Mays.

The thing that catches my attention most is stolen base column. Trout has obviously hit the ground running (pun intended) whereas Mays would not show his base-stealing prowess until swiping 24 against four times caught in his age 24 season, a preview for his four following seasons leading the league in thefts.

Now, for Harper and Mantle.

Player	Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	Pos
Mickey Mantle	1951	19	NYY	96	386	341	61	91	11	5	13	65	8	7	43	74	.267	.349	.443	.792	117	O9/8
Bryce Harper	2012	19	WSN	95	418	371	61	91	16	5	10	32	13	5	42	85	.245	.321	.396	.718	94	*98/7

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 8/17/2012.

Again, eerily similar numbers, especially since Harper currently has about the same games and PAs as Mantle had for his season. Big difference is RBI, mainly because Harper’s total is surprisingly low, and Mantle’s surprisingly high. Note also that, like Mays, Mantle had not yet learned the art of base stealing. Despite his speed, Mantle only once stole more than 20 bases, though he certainly learned how to steal – from 1955 to 1962, Mantle stole 108 bases and was caught only 15 times.

Further with the matching characteristics, Harper and Mantle’s birthdays are only 4 days apart. Mantle was in the opening day lineup and was the Bombers regular right fielder until the end of June and again in September (he was used sparingly in between those periods – was he injured, Richard Chester?). Other than being brought up 3 weeks into the season, Harper is the same – an everyday player right from the start.

Finally, if you’re wondering (as I was) whether there’s some 60 year (or so) thing happening, I checked out precocious rookies of the early 1890s. Guess what – I found HOFer George Davis. His first season seems to fit right in with this crowd.

Player	Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	Pos
George Davis	1890	19	CLV	136	583	526	98	139	22	9	6	73	22		53	34	.264	.336	.375	.711	111	*O/46

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/19/2012.

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birtelcom

12 years ago

Mickey Mantle was sent down to the minors in mid-July of 1951. He had started well in ’51: .872 OPS through May 18. But from May 20 through July 13 his slash numbers were .212 BA/.307 OBP/.364 SLG/.670 OPS. He was sent down to Kansas City, got back on track (1.096 in KC) and put up an .865 OPS after he got back to the big club. He was then badly (and perhaps permanently) injured in Game 2 of the World Series going after a Willie Mays fly ball (right knee — same as Mariano injured going after a fly… Read more »

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Mantle was leading the Yankees in RBI when he was sent down but was striking out a lot and was dejected. A friend of my parents gave me an autographed ball signed by the Yankees that year but it was signed during the time period that Mantle was in the minors. That cut the value of the ball almost in half. DiMaggio’s signature counts for the other half with some value for Berra.

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

If I remember correctly (the story, not the events, since I wasn’t around then), when Mantle was sent down he continued to struggle initially, so he called his father and wanted to go home, questioning his ability. His father showed up, started packing Mantle’s stuff, threatning to send his son off to the coal mines. Mickey changed his mind and started hitting again from that day forward. Trout struggled at 19 and was sent back down. A-Rod struggled as a teenager and was sent back down. We know the Mantle story. Perhaps Harper needs some more time in the minors,… Read more »

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

Thanks MikeD,

Now that you mention that story, I recall that too.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Thanks birtelcom,

Silly me. Should have checked his minor league page.

Here’s Mickey’s take on the WS injury – trying to avoid a collision with Joe D because, as the Mick says, “you don’t run into Joe DiMaggio”.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7EEkFBDSYA&playnext=1&list=PL84B15B8B4FD11C76&feature=results_video

Artie Z.

12 years ago

I don’t think it is really fair to Mantle and Mays to talk about them not showing base stealing prowess until a few years in. It is more apt to say that the strategies in the game changed – when Mays stole 40 bases in 1956 he was the first NLer since Kiki Cuyler in 1929 to steal at least 40 bases in a season. The AL wasn’t much better, though they had a few players (mainly during the WWII era and mainly George Case) who cracked the 40 steal barrier in the 1930s-1950s. In 1951, when Mays “only” stole… Read more »

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

Did the strategies change, or did Mays change the strategies?

In any event, I was more focused on the success ratio which for both players (but particularly for Mantle) is not indicative of a player who has mastered the finer points of base stealing, regardless of how often the player is asked to steal.

brp

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

James made an interesting point when talking about Maury Wills’ 1962 season that part of his success was probably due to the fact that nobody stole bases in the 1950s and catchers’ throwing arms were no longer a factor in whether a player manned the backstop. I can’t verify if there is any merit to that, but I’m sure players like Mays, Brock, Aparicio, Wills could have been another factor in the uptick in the 1960s. However I find it hard to believe there weren’t fast players in the 1950s and think that it is much, much more likely that… Read more »

Brooklyn Mick

12 years ago

It’s a shame (or maybe a blessing) that, because he is 26 years old, Yoenis Céspedes rarely gets mentioned in the same sentence as the above. What he’s done in the 2nd half has been remarkable. His offensive production has been similar to Trout’s and far superior to Harper’s.

2nd half BA/OBP/SLG slash lines
Céspedes – .377/.433/.607
Trout – .346/.425/.681
Harper – .181/.267/.276

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Brooklyn Mick

True, although he’s 26 and has been playing professional baseball, including international competition, for years. He can’t be mentioned in the same sentence as Trout and Harper because of age and experience.

Yet if not for Trout’s generational performance, he’d be the easy ROY winner.

Brooklyn Mick

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

I’m aware of that Mike, and not trying to take anything away from the talent on the Cuban National team, but the Major Leagues are the Major Leagues, and the difference between international play and the bigs is huge. But again, part of my point is that the allure of Trout and Harper is their young age and the associated hype. Thus far, Trout has lived up to the hype, but in the absence of all the hype, would we even be talking about Harper if he were a 21 year old call-up playing in Kansas City?

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Brooklyn Mick

Mick — If Harper were having the same year he’s having but at age 21, it would still be noteworthy from a certain perspective. Harper currently has 1.9 WAR, with about than 1/4 of the season left. Since 1901, 62 position players have registered between 2 and 3 WAR in their age-21 season. Of those 62, 13 have already made the HOF. I-Rod is almost a lock to join them. David Wright is arguably on a HOF path. Forty of the 62 have been All-Stars. Being a regular in the bigs at age 21, even at an average level, is… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Yes, exactly. Said much better than what I wrote below in #8, which for some reason didn’t nestle under Mick’s comment.

Nothing excites baseball diehards than the prospect of watching the start of what could be HOF careers. Perhaps modern-day versions of Mays and Mantle. The odds are against Trout and Harper reaching that level, but history says we’re probably watching something special.

kds

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

JA, could you run something like all 19yo with 300+ PA and look at their career WAR? Same for 20yo.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

For kds @17 —
Since 1901, career WAR for those who were regulars (300+ PAs) at 19, 20 and/or 21:

Age 19 – http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/UF1qa
Age 20 – http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/bmTj3
Age 21* – http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/hKgRf

* 276 players were regulars at age 21. A saved search is limited to 200 players, so I took the top 200 by age-21 WAR.

Also note that these lists are *not* mutually exclusive — obviously, most who are regulars at 19 remained so at 20 and 21. There’s no practical way with the P-I to target a player’s first *full* season.

Brooklyn Mick

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I get it John, and after Harper’s night last night (2-4/HR/3B/2R/2RBI) he now has 2.1 WAR on the year. Pretty good night for the youngster.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

#33: Make that “I think….”

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Brooklyn Mick

I recall a piece Bill James did in one of his Abstracts where he used his similarity score method to find matched pairs of players, matched that is in every respect but age. One of his conclusions was that in a pair of impressive rookies with very similar rookie seasons, the 21 year-old rookie would, on average, produce 40% to 45% more career value than the 22 year-old rookie, a result that even startled the author. The reason for this is good players get better every year until about 28 or so, then start declining, so the earlier you start:… Read more »

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

kds @ comment #17: Since 1901, 23 guys (not including Bryce H.) have accumulated at least 300 PAs in thier age 19 season. The average career WAR these 23 guys put together is 40.4. Ty Cobb 144.9 career WAR Mickey Mantle 105.5 Mel Ott 104 Al Kaline 87.4 Ken Griffey, Jr. 79.2 Robin Yount 72.4 Sherry Magee 55.8 Cesar Cedeno 49.7 Travis Jackson 42 Rusty Staub 41.6 Phil Cavaretta 31.8 Edgar Renteria 29.5 Freddie Lindstrom 26.8 Buddy Lewis 24.7 Cass Michaels 14 Jose Oquendo 12.4 Tony Conigliaro 10.5 Bobby Del Greco 2.8 John Knight 2.8 Ed Kranepool 2.2 Sibby Sisti… Read more »

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Continuing the response to kds @ 17: Since 1901, 90 guys have accumulated at least 300 PAs in their age 20 season (there is of course some overlap with the guys who accumulated 300 PAS at 19). To get an average career WAR number, we should probably take out the 10 guys who are currently active, as their final career WAR numbers are not yet set. That leaves 80 guys no longer active. The average career WAR for those 80 is 39.6 (the average drops only a little, to 38.9, if you also include the 10 active guys using their… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Birtelcom @18, a few random observations. I expect to see greatness at the top of the list, which means I was immediately drawn to the bottom of the list — the 19-year-olds who made it to the Majors but never quite achieved stardom. What was their stories. It appears there’s a higher percentage of middle infielders at the bottom, from Ted Kazanski, Sisti, Knight, and Oquendo, compared to the top, which is heavily OFer driven. Yount’s the highest-ranking infielder in the group, although his career games played is almost equally divided between OF and SS. I was interested in Ted… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

#22/ Mike D, In the spirit of your comment, I am also more interested in the players at the _bottom_ of #18/birtelcom’s list of 19-yo’s w/300+ PAs. In particular, I am wondering how Ed Kranepool managed to play all of 18 years and 1853 games as an overall below-average-hitting (98 OPS+) first baseman/corner OFer, all with the Mets. He didn’t seem to be that great defensively, either. 2.2 career WAR is a shockingly low total. Reading upon him, he did have several great pinch-hitting seasons, but that doesn’t account for 5,997 career plate appearances. Can any Mets historians explain?? I… Read more »

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Mike D.: Regarding Kazanski, you have good reason to be skeptical about defense metrics. On the other hand, though, the fact that Kazanski could not get any job in the majors after age 24, and managed only one season in the majors as a regular, back when he was 22, despite apparently being in good health (he played full-time in AAA thorugh age 30), does suggest that his contemporaries didn’t really value him any more highly do his WAR numbers.

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Lawrence @ #25: Some speculation on how Kranepool, never any more than replacement level player, carved out such a long career with the Mets. First, during Ed’s career, the Mets rarely had much organizational depth at the 1B/OF positions. Second, he did did seem to show a useful talent in that his career OPS as a pinch hitter was .731, in an era when the average pinch hitting PA produced an OPS of about .615. The Mets were also an organization that did a lot of platooning in the 60s and 70s (probably partly a function of the lack of… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

@25 Lawrence — I live in NY and came here and of age baseball wise in the mid-70s, so I did get to see and live the whole Ed Kranepool experience. I’m not sure I qualify as a Mets historian, but I can take a guess. Why did he stick around so long? Timing. The Mets were a horrible franchise in the 1960s, save for that final year. They made a strategic error in the stocking draft in 1962, going for name and veteran players well past prime. We know what happened. They lost more games than any team in… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

@27, birtelcom — Good point. A slick fielder would have stuck around longer.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

#28/birtelcom, #29/Mike D –

Thanks for trying to explain the mystery of Ed Kranepool lasting 18 years and becoming a career Met.

It does seem odd that on a WS team in 1973 he got 320 PA, with Triple Crown stats that were, frankly, terrible (1 HR, 35 RBI,.239 BA),and the worst OPS+ (73) of anyone on the team with that many PA.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

The think the fact that Kranepool was a local boy and his resulting popularity played a significant role with his long tenure with the Mets. And graduating from the same high school as Hank Greenberg didn’t hurt either.

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

@32, Lawrence. I did find it interesting that two of his worst years in the Majors were in 1969 and 1973, which were two of the most successful years in Mets history.

MikeD

12 years ago

We’re talking about Harper because he’s Harper. If he’s somebody else and a different age and more years of development in the minors, and doesn’t possess the talent package of Harper, then that changes the story, but I can’t comment on another story or player that doesn’t exist. Yet every year older a player gets in his 20s, the less interesting the story, so by the time a player is 26, he’s really no longer a prospect. He is what he is. In Cespedes’ case that’s a very good thing. We can’t pretendm though, that there hasn’t been a lot… Read more »

Jim Bouldin

12 years ago

Speaking of deja vu all over the place, the Cardinals matched the Pirates with a run in the bottom of the 17th.

2011 all over again?

Jim Bouldin

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

…and David Freese now at the plate with a man on in the 18th no less. I gotta see this.

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

Has the game entered the 66th inning yet?

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

The famous 26-inning game between the Boston Braves and the Brooklyn Robins of May 1st 1920, was played in 3:50, about two hours seventeen minutes LESS than the 19-inning Cards/Pirates game (6:07 )on Sunday.

That’s the equivalent of almost three 9-inning games, played in about 1:20.

Tmckelv

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

So far this year, the Yankees and Red Sox have played three 9-inning games at Fenway that took longer than the 3 Hours 50 minutes mentioned above.

nightfly

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

No commercial breaks in 1920 – unless you count staring at the billboards in the outfield.

Tristram12

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

Circling back to confirm that the record shows that Jim Bouldin called it first. Excellent observation made in real time.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Deja vu?
Roger Clemens is now a Sugarland Skeeter.

http://www.sugarlandskeeters.com/index.cfm

I for one would give the Skeeters a chance against the Astros.

Brooklyn Mick

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

I understand there’s a good chance that he’ll get called up to the Astros in September, which would reset his HOF eligibility date to 2018. The Artful Roger.

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Brooklyn Mick

I did hear that there were Astros scouts at his workout. Forget around resetting his HOF clock. Does he instantly become their best starter at age 50?

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Mebbe so, Voom, but he ain’t beating my beloved Camden RiverSharks!

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Trying to rescue Kranepool from “indented” servitude:

FWIW, Kranepool is hardly alone in having a long career despite replacement-caliber performance. Since 1901, 20 players have 5,000 PAs with a career total of 3 WAR or less. Alfredo Griffin played almost 2,000 games over 18 seasons, more than 7,000 PAs. Willie Montanez had 6,400 PAs in 17 seasons. Bob Kennedy played 16 seasons. All three of them came up at 18.

Neifi Perez, Tony Womack, Jim Spencer, Dante Bichette, Leo Durocher, Luke Sewell, Chris Gomez, and others all had at least 5,000 PAs and less than 3 WAR.