Cliff Lee’s not so excellent adventure

Cliff Lee of the Phillies is having one weird season. As of this writing, Lee is sporting a 2-6 W-L record after 19 starts, with rate stats comparable to his career averages.

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB Awards
2012 33 PHI NL 2 6 .250 3.73 108 1.181 8.9 1.1 1.7 8.5 4.96
11 Yrs 121 75 .617 3.65 116 1.220 8.9 0.9 2.1 7.3 3.47
162 Game Avg. 15 9 .617 3.65 116 1.220 8.9 0.9 2.1 7.3 3.47
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/4/2012.

So, what’s so unusual? I’ll take a look after the jump.

As you can see, Lee is in his 11th season and is in a group of pitchers to win 100+ games with a 115 or better ERA+ through their first 10 seasons. So, how did those pitchers fare in their 11th season (min. 162 IP)? Let’s see.

Rk Player W BB/9 SO/9 WHIP SO/BB IP Year Age Tm GS CG SHO GF L W-L% SV BB SO ERA ERA+ HR
1 Virgil Trucks 5 3.75 5.89 1.381 1.57 197.0 1952 35 DET 29 8 3 5 19 .208 1 82 129 3.97 95 12
2 Bert Blyleven 8 2.45 6.98 1.283 2.85 216.2 1980 29 PIT 32 5 2 1 13 .381 0 59 168 3.82 97 20
3 Jerry Koosman 8 3.22 7.62 1.218 2.37 226.2 1977 34 NYM 32 6 1 0 20 .286 0 81 192 3.49 107 17
4 Barry Zito 9 3.79 6.77 1.344 1.79 199.1 2010 32 SFG 33 1 0 1 14 .391 0 84 150 4.15 94 20
5 Roger Clemens 9 3.74 8.86 1.143 2.37 170.2 1994 31 BOS 24 3 1 0 7 .563 0 71 168 2.85 176 15
6 Curt Davis 10 1.81 2.27 1.268 1.26 194.0 1944 40 BRO 23 12 1 7 11 .476 4 39 49 3.34 106 12
7 Doc White 10 1.47 3.02 1.185 2.06 214.1 1911 32 CHW 29 16 4 5 14 .417 2 35 72 2.98 109 2
8 Johan Santana 11 2.49 6.51 1.176 2.62 199.0 2010 31 NYM 29 4 2 0 9 .550 0 55 144 2.98 131 16
9 Mordecai Brown 11 2.28 2.13 1.258 0.93 173.1 1913 36 CIN 16 11 1 21 12 .478 6 44 41 2.91 111 7
10 Orel Hershiser 12 3.00 5.88 1.266 1.96 215.2 1993 34 LAD 33 5 1 0 14 .462 0 72 141 3.59 106 17
11 Juan Marichal 12 1.78 4.56 1.306 2.56 242.2 1970 32 SFG 33 14 1 0 10 .545 0 48 123 4.12 98 28
12 Ned Garver 12 2.96 3.22 1.284 1.09 201.0 1958 32 KCA 28 10 3 3 11 .522 1 66 72 4.03 97 24
13 Eddie Lopat 12 1.75 2.86 1.306 1.64 170.0 1954 36 NYY 23 7 0 0 4 .750 0 33 54 3.55 98 14
14 Tommy Bridges 12 4.01 6.06 1.310 1.51 197.2 1940 33 DET 28 12 2 1 9 .571 0 88 133 3.37 141 11
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/4/2012.

I guess being on a list liberally sprinkled with HOFers can’t be all bad, but Lee has some work to do to avoid taking the top spot here with the fewest wins.

Changing it up slightly to use the same criteria up to age 32 instead of in the first ten seasons, we get these age 33 seasons.

Rk Player W BB/9 SO/9 WHIP SO/BB IP Year Age Tm GS CG SHO GF L W-L% SV BB SO ERA ERA+ HR
1 Firpo Marberry 8 3.28 3.01 1.386 0.92 197.2 1932 33 WSH 15 8 1 26 4 .667 13 72 66 4.01 108 13
2 Doc White 8 2.46 2.98 1.273 1.21 172.0 1912 33 CHW 19 9 1 10 10 .444 0 47 57 3.24 99 1
3 Bob Feller 9 3.90 3.80 1.576 0.98 191.2 1952 33 CLE 30 11 0 0 13 .409 0 83 81 4.74 71 13
4 Roger Clemens 10 3.93 9.53 1.327 2.42 242.2 1996 33 BOS 34 6 2 0 13 .435 0 106 257 3.63 139 19
5 Orel Hershiser 10 2.95 5.55 1.320 1.88 210.2 1992 33 LAD 33 1 0 0 15 .400 0 69 130 3.67 95 15
6 Ron Guidry 10 2.02 5.84 1.365 2.89 195.2 1984 33 NYY 28 5 1 1 11 .476 0 44 127 4.51 84 24
7 Tommy John 10 2.65 3.96 1.295 1.49 207.0 1976 33 LAD 31 6 2 0 10 .500 0 61 91 3.09 109 7
8 Dizzy Trout 10 3.58 4.46 1.448 1.25 183.2 1948 33 DET 23 11 2 6 14 .417 2 73 91 3.43 128 6
9 Jack Chesbro 10 2.01 3.41 1.155 1.70 206.0 1907 33 NYY 25 17 1 3 10 .500 0 46 78 2.53 111 0
10 Kevin Appier 11 2.79 7.49 1.185 2.69 206.2 2001 33 NYM 33 1 1 0 10 .524 0 64 172 3.57 116 22
11 Lon Warneke 11 1.79 2.93 1.155 1.64 181.0 1942 33 TOT 24 13 1 3 11 .500 2 36 59 2.73 121 10
12 Fergie Jenkins 12 1.85 6.11 1.167 3.30 209.0 1976 33 BOS 29 12 2 1 11 .522 0 43 142 3.27 121 20
13 Robin Roberts 12 1.29 4.63 1.222 3.59 237.1 1960 33 PHI 33 13 2 2 16 .429 1 34 122 4.02 97 31
14 Mike Garcia 12 3.11 4.68 1.391 1.51 211.1 1957 33 CLE 27 9 1 5 8 .600 0 73 110 3.75 100 14
15 Tommy Bridges 12 4.01 6.06 1.310 1.51 197.2 1940 33 DET 28 12 2 1 9 .571 0 88 133 3.37 141 11
16 Wilbur Cooper 12 2.59 1.74 1.460 0.67 212.1 1925 33 CHC 26 13 0 5 14 .462 0 61 41 4.28 102 18
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/5/2012.

Lee seems very likely to be heading this list (again with many notable names) after this season.

What about decisions? Lee has just 8 in 19 starts. How low is that rate?

Rk Player Dec BB/9 SO/9 WHIP SO/BB GS IP Year Age Tm G CG SHO GF W L W-L% BB SO ERA ERA+ HR
1 Mike Krukow 11 2.54 5.74 1.399 2.26 28 163.0 1987 35 SFG 30 3 0 0 5 6 .455 46 104 4.80 81 24
2 Jeremy Guthrie 12 2.41 6.31 1.209 2.62 26 175.1 2007 28 BAL 32 0 0 3 7 5 .583 47 123 3.70 125 23
3 Brett Tomko 12 3.14 6.91 1.366 2.20 26 172.0 1999 26 CIN 33 1 0 1 5 7 .417 60 132 4.92 95 31
4 Odalis Perez 13 2.02 5.87 1.141 2.91 31 196.1 2004 26 LAD 31 0 0 0 7 6 .538 44 128 3.25 126 26
5 Roy Oswalt 14 2.08 6.85 1.241 3.29 30 181.1 2009 31 HOU 30 3 0 0 8 6 .571 42 138 4.12 100 19
6 Kenny Rogers 14 3.18 5.81 1.408 1.83 31 195.1 1999 34 TOT 31 5 1 0 10 4 .714 69 126 4.19 108 16
7 Masato Yoshii 14 2.78 6.13 1.276 2.21 29 171.2 1998 33 NYM 29 1 0 0 6 8 .429 53 117 3.93 107 22
8 Ron Darling 14 3.64 4.80 1.517 1.32 29 178.0 1993 32 OAK 31 3 0 1 5 9 .357 72 95 5.16 79 22
9 Bert Blyleven 17 3.49 6.52 1.390 1.87 37 237.1 1979 28 PIT 37 4 0 0 12 5 .706 92 172 3.60 108 21
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/4/2012.

These are pitchers with seasons (min. 162 IP) with decisions numbering fewer than 50% of starts. A really short list. Note that, unsurprisingly, only two seasons here occurred more than 20 years ago, and none prior to 1979.

Other curious marks from Lee’s season: allowing 1 ER or less, Lee is 1-0, but with 4 no decisions; allowing 2 ER, 1-2 with one ND; more than 2 ER, 0-4 with 5 NDs. Among 28 pitchers this season with 5 games allowing 1 ER or less, only Cole DeVries and Drew Smyly also have 1-0 records. Juan Nicasio has 4 such games and is still in search of a decision.

Finally, how much will a season like this affect Lee’s final career marks. Let’s look at pitchers with comparable SO and Win totals after age 32 and age 33, and see how different those lists look. First, age 32 pitchers with 115 to 125 wins, and 1200 or more strikeouts. There are 18 retired pitchers matching these criteria, the better ones including Tommy John, Kevin Brown, Ron Guidry, Jon Matlack and Luis Tiant. Discouragingly for Lee, this group was mostly done by age 32 – the median career wins was 132 as 13 of the 18 finished with 136 or less (but the other 5 were all at 170 or more), and only 3 finished north of 2000 strikeouts.

Now let’s look at a group of age 33 pitchers with 120 to 130 wins, and 1300 or more strikeouts. Again, this yields a group of 18 retired pitchers. Several of the same pitchers are holdovers from the first group (not surprisingly since the first group included so many “almost done” guys), but new names include Randy Johnson, Floyd Bannister, Dean Chance, Kevin Gross and Jerry Koosman. For this group, the median career wins was again 132, but only 3 finished above 145 wins though all of these were at 200 or more. Strikeout totals were a bit more promising with 3 finishing over 2500 and Bobby Witt fourth at 1955.

So, somewhat surprisingly, having a weird year with almost nothing registering in the Wins column doesn’t seem to have done much to hurt Lee’s prospects for where his final career totals might end up. At the beginning of this season, Bill James’ career projection tool gave Lee a 35% chance at 200 wins and a 92% chance at 2000 strikeouts. Just for fun, if we were to assume that Lee isn’t almost done, then career totals of 200-225 wins with 2000 strikeouts and a .600 winning percentage (Lee is currently at .617) would put him in the same class as just one player, another former Phillies pitcher and a likely first ballot HOFer. I’m sure you know the guy I’m talking about.

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no statistician but
no statistician but
12 years ago

Doug:

Up till this year Lee has gotten decisions in roughly 75% of his starts. This year it’s 42%. So I would venture that the apparent weirdness results in large measure from that phenomenon. The team’s record in his no decisions is 5-6.

Ryan Dempster’s season started similarly: 3 decisions(all losses) in 9 starts, but then he ran off 7 decisions in a row. Maybe something similar will happen for Lee. We say pitching wins don’t count for much anymore, but when they don’t show up as expected, we still get curious.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
12 years ago

Doug,

Am I not understanding something about that first chart?
It says that these are the pitchers who have won 100 with at least a 115 era+ in their first 10 seasons. This is not the exhaustive list of such pitchers. NOt even close. So I’m not clear as to what it represents.

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Okay, that makes sense. I was about to note similar as a number of pitchers entered my mind, including Andy Pettitte who should be on the first (10 seasons) and second (though age-32) lists. Cliff Lee can certainly avoid leading the fewest-wins list since he has a little less than two months to go, but it seems likely he’ll still up being in the top few. The Phillies really should have shipped Lee to the Dodgers. I don’t see much hope of the Phillies being major contenders for a few years, so ridding themselves of approximately $29M a year in… Read more »

Richard
Richard
12 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

“I don’t see much hope of the Phillies being major contenders for a few years” This is silly. What do you think was the Phillies problem this year? My guess is you have no idea, don’t follow them, assume they’re just old and broken. Well, sure, they have some older players, and they’ve had a lot of injuries. But pretty much everything went wrong this season. Yet, simply put, if Roy Halladay doesn’t miss 7 weeks (after having been only spottily effective before that), and Utley doesn’t miss a full month more than he did last year, and the bullpen… Read more »

Ed
Ed
12 years ago

In 2005, Lee went 18-5 with a nearly identical 3.79 ERA and 111 ERA+. He led the AL in winning % and finished 4th in Cy Young voting, despite not being in the top 10 in ERA, ERA+ or Ks. So I’d say this year balances out his karma.

deal
12 years ago

Regarding the last parapgraph, Pedro has a WS Ring and 3 Cy Young Awards to Lee’s one.

Despite similar postseason success, I think Lee needs to at a minimu win a WS to get into a Pedro comparison.

The height of Martinez’s career also took him thru the steroid era.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
12 years ago

Short of a late career performance jump the likes of which we’ve ever seen, Cliff Lee will *never* get into a Pedro comparison except by virtue of a cherry picked stat combination, which I think was expected to be taken as given by the OP. Pedro also had a career ERA+ of 154, to Lee’s current 116. Only Lee’s two best years (and his 10IP cup of coffee in 92) have exceeded Pedro’s *average* over a 19 year career. Not a single qualifying season from Lee exceeds Pedro’s average through 2004 (age 32 season). Similar deal looking at WAA and… Read more »

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug, I took what you were saying in the OP as mildly ironic, with an automatic subtext of expecting every reader to know that talking about Lee and Martinez as being “in the same class” is completely ridiculous.

I was intending to reply to deal@#5, where he seems to both think that your comparison was serious, and that Lee was only a cy and a WS away from making it somewhat legit.