Hanley Ramirez – the most successful LA Dodger named Ramirez since Manny

H-Ram triples on the 1st pitch he saw as a Dodger / US PRESSWIRE

Hanley Ramirez got off to a nice start with his new team, but let’s take a bit of a look at his career arc.

In 2006, Ramirez put up a 116 OPS+ as a 22-year old shortstop. One other 22-year old SS also put up a 116 ERA+: Joe Sewell in 1921. Sewell is a HOFer (though probably one of the weakest, with just 49.2 career WAR) and it would be a great career for Ramirez to replicate.

In 2007, Ramirez had a 145 OPS+ as a 23-year old shortstop. That’s quite similar to Cal Ripken, age 23 in 1984, who put up a 146 OPS+. Another good guy to copy.

In 2008, Ramirez had a 143 OPS+ as a 24-year old shortstop. Most similar this time is Ernie Banks in 1955, who had a 144 OPS+ in his Age 24 season. Still looking great.

In 2009, Ramirez had his best season, a 148 OPS+ as a 25-year old shortstop. The most similar season by a 25-year old shortstop came from Derek Jeter in 1999, who posted a 153 OPS+. Still a great comparison group for Ramirez.

In 2010, Ramirez slipped a bit to a 126 OPS+ as a 26-year old shortstop. The most similar in this case is Bill Hall‘s 2006, with a 125 OPS+ (although Jeter’s 2000 was close with a 128 OPS+–and this was a more typical year for Jeter as his 1999 had been quite a positive aberration.) Hall has managed only 8.4 WAR in his career, and that 2006 was a standout fluke year for him.

In 2011, Ramirez had his only season to date where he missed significant time. Let’s presume he maintained his 95 OPS+ for the whole season, doing so as a 27-year old shortstop. A number of 27-year old shortstops have put up a 95 OPS+ but the most recent was Tony Fernandez in 1989. Fernandez is an underrated player, and with a career WAR of 42.0 he’s only a tick or two behind Sewell.

So far in 2012, Ramirez has a 99 OPS+, which he’s doing as a 28-year old third baseman instead of shortstop. A number of 28-year old 3B’s have put up a 99 OPS+, the most recent being Travis Fryman in 1997. Fryman finished his career with a very respectable 31.2 WAR–unquestionably not a Hall of Famer, but a good player. The biggest knock on him is that he put up a 74 OPS+ over his Age 32 and 33 seasons, and was done as a player after that.

Anyway, Ramirez’s comp progression goes like this:

Sewell-Ripken-Banks-Jeter-Hall-Fernandez-Fryman.

With the exception of Hall, all of these guys were at least really good in their prime. Obviously, though, the trend is going in the wrong direction.

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Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

The way Hanley “ran” on that triple was more comparable to Woodie Fryman than to Travis.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

It’s a great photo, and the caption is accurate — Hanley did hit a triple.

But the combination of that pose on the follow-through, and the ultimate outcome, must be quite rare, especially for a RHB.

Jason Z

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Right on John. Hanley is a bum. I think it was two years ago when
Andre Dawson had to have a sit down with Hanley because he wouldn’t
hustle out of the box.

It didn’t help, and as we all saw with that triple, he still doesn’t
know how to hustle.

The Marlins are lucky to be rid of him.

I thought they should have traded him two years ago.

IMO he is worth 2 jars of peanut butter, (crunchy style).

brp

12 years ago

I’ve never watched Marlins games (nor have most Floridians, I’d venture), but is there anything in Hanley’s stance/approach/body type/etc. that changed his game since 2010? All I’ve ever heard is that it’s mental with Hanley, but is it possible there’s another explanation?

12 years ago

Here’s a question: Has anyone ever had an OPS+ above 130 through age 26 (with some minimum # of PAs) and then under 100 for the rest of their career?

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Among the 111 players since 1901 to have a 130 OPS+ through Age 26 (minimum 2000 plate appearances), here are the lowest OPS+ from Age 27 onward: Rk Player OPS+ From To Age G PA 1 Bill Bradley 83 1905 1915 27-37 744 3017 2 Harry Lumley 93 1908 1910 27-29 190 713 3 Hanley Ramirez 99 2011 2012 27-28 186 785 4 Mike Greenwell 106 1991 1996 27-32 634 2620 5 Jim Ray Hart 108 1969 1974 27-32 355 1101 6 John Mayberry 109 1976 1982 27-33 932 3682 7 Richie Hebner 110 1975 1985 27-37 1131 3880 8… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Filtered P-I search to the rescue! First I found, since 1901, all inactive players with at least 2,000 PAs through age 26 and an OPS+ of at least 125. (I didn’t want to totally cherry-pick Hanley’s 136 OPS+.) There are 130 such players. Only 3 had OPS+ below 100 in the remainder of their careers from age 27 onward: — 82 by 1B Don Hurst, in 912 PAs. At 26 he led the NL with 143 RBI. His hitting fell off a cliff at 27, and his career ended at 28. — 83 by 3B Bill Bradley, in 3,017 PAs.… Read more »

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

A day late and a dollar short, my friend.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

🙂

I like to think it captures our differences:

— Yours is concise, quick, looks better, and is more web-friendly (i.e., links).

— Mine is a bit more nuanced. It took me 3 passes to (a) remember to exclude active players and (b) move the initial OPS+ threshold down to 125 to get a more robust set of results. Plus you get my valuable commentary. 🙂

We’re like that old Army running back tandem, Mr. Inside & Mr. Outside. (And yes, that’s intentionally way before your time.)

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Thanks guys! So basically you have to go back 100 years to find anyone who’s done something similar to what Ramirez could do. Interesting to see that Cesar Cedeno, the poster boy for mid-career dropoffs, wasn’t that bad post-age 26. John – where is Vada Pinson rate? Looks like he may be just below your 125+ cutoff but could be below 100 post age 26. Also interesting to see Cal Ripken show up on John’s list. It’s easy to forget just how good he was his first few years and how he never quite reached those levels again (with the… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

@9, Ed — Vada Pinson just missed the initial 125 OPS+ threshold. He was at 124 through age 26. From 27 onward, he compiled a 98 OPS+, but that was really dragged down by a lousy final year in which he nevertheless played a lot. Exclude that and he was at 101 from 27-35. Pinson was never a great hitter. The assumption that he was on a HOF track is based more on the counting stats (including his SB), his consistency at a good level, and his defensive value as a CF. I still think you’re drawing too sharp a… Read more »

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Pinson wasn’t Mays or DiMaggio or Williams but he had OPS+ between 110-142 from age 20-26. Not many people can pull that off. It’s not like he was Johnny Damon (where is Timmy P btw???) As for my question re: Ramirez, I was just looking for a quick and dirty. I feel bad that I’m not a PI subscriber and don’t want to ask too much of you or Andy just to fulfill my personal interest. Obviously Ramirez’ career is far from over and we have no idea what his ultimate post age 26 career will look like. I just… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

… and we’re back with the report of Hanley comparables for the first 6 seasons. 197 inactive players since 1901 had at least 2,000 PAs and a 125+ OPS+ through 6 seasons. Besides those mentioned in the “age 26” report, here are the lowest OPS+ for season nos. 7-end: — 79, Erubiel Durazo — 83, Willie Aikens — 83, Ed Morgan — 92, Chief Myers — 95, Kal Daniels — 96, Zeke Bonura All these guys played only briefly in seasons 7-end. Henceforth, I’ll report only those with 1,000 PAs in the later period — 96, Stuffy McInnis, 6,089 PAs… Read more »

no statistician but

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

JA:

Klein, Garciaparra, and Mattingly—significant mid-career injury or health problem—the George Sisler syndrome. If Klein had had modern treatment and re-hab, he probably would have had 3 or 4 more great years. Playing for the CUBS he was among the league leaders in all his usual departments when the leg injury occurred, showing that he could adapt to another field besides the Baker Bowl as his home base.

The records of all three guys show some gutsy later years.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

@19, nsb — OK, but do the injuries somehow separate them from Hanley, which is the point of the inquiry? He also had injuries last year, and might still be less than 100%.

I’m not making excuses for Hanley — obviously, he’s no favorite of mine — but it’s conceivable that he’s still affected in some way by last year’s back problem.

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Two points:

1) I’m not sure the concept of “first six seasons” is particularly meaningful. Ramirez, for example, only had 2 PAs his first season.

2) Looking at the first 6 seasons, rather than an age cutoff, introduces older players into the equation, players who might be expected to be entering the decline phase of their career.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

@22, Ed — I understand both your points. I think the 2nd is stronger. I don’t think it’s fair to reject “first 6 seasons” just because Hanley had just a few PAs his first year. Most guys don’t play full-time in their first season. Some, especially long ago, had 2 or even 3 cups of coffee before they stuck. And in seasons 2-6, Hanley had tons of PAs. He’s #186 all-time in most PAs in the first 6 years, with 3,372; there’s only 60 guys with even 10% more than that. Hanley had 5 seasons of 600+ PAs in his… Read more »

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I agree that multiple perspectives are generally useful. That being said I’m not entirely sure I agree with the statement “If some guy had Hanley’s exact seasons but started one year older, and another had the same seasons starting a year younger, wouldn’t they both still be highly similar to Hanley?” If I remember my Bill James correctly he looked at comparable rookies who started at different ages and found that just one year difference in rookie age had a big impact on future career development. Now granted, that’s a bit different than your statement since it looks just at… Read more »

no statistician but

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

@21, JA:

Caught me red-handed not paying attention to the context.

Also, the fact that Ramirez might be still recovering from injuries was unknown to me, being no follower of of the Marlins. From the comments here on his ongoing attitude problems, though, I wouldn’t group him with those three guys—especially not Mattingly—even if he is a sufferer of George Sisler Syndrome on a lesser level.

Opinion based on nothing but parallels: players who crash with good attitudes can come back. Players who crash with bad attitudes? Poe wrote an interesting story called “A Descent into the Maelstrom.”

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Harry Lumley is the only rookie to lead the league in triples and homers. Five others have led the league in those categories but not as rookies. Mantle, Rice, Leach, Bottomley and Mays are the others.

Jason Z

12 years ago

Here is the link…

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700033650/Hanley-Ramirez-gets-stern-advice-from-Andre-Dawson-Tony-Perez.html?pg=all

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Here’s the video of Hanley’s triple:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=23355977&c_id=mlb

Indeed, when the ball hits off the wall and bounds inward from John Jay, Hanley has only just passed first base, and only then starts running. Pretty sad.

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Hanley could have easily had an inside-the-park homer on the first pitch he saw as a Dodger…incredible.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

There’s a clip that shows only the triple, which I find somewhat more telling. What clinched my revulsion was not just the no-hustle out of the box, but many things seen during the clip. At the 0:25 mark, see Hanley standing on 3rd after the play, grinning and pointing to the dugout. Two seconds later, note how 3B coach Wallach isn’t grinning after he shakes hands. Apparently, Hanley doesn’t “get” that he did anything wrong. At that same moment, the TV announcer — is that Steve Lyons? — says chummily, “How sweet would it have been if that ball went… Read more »

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

It is particularly damning that Ramirez is behaving that way in his first game with a new team, when we would expect him to be on his best behavior.