No, Roger Clemens is not holding an auction to pay legal defense costs. I’m talking about the White Sox’ Chris Sale, who currently has the most Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-reference version) of any pitcher in 2012. Chris is a mere tenth of a point ahead of Justin Verlander in b-ref”s WAR calculation. If you check the Fangraphs version of the current AL pitching WAR leaderboard, you’lll find that over there Verlander is first in the AL and Sale is second. By either standard, Sale is having a brilliant season thus far. What caught my eye in particular is what Sale’s current pace represents in historical terms. Details after the jump.
Chris has been a professional baseball player for barely two years. He was drafted 12 picks after Bryce Harper in the 2010 June draft, and was in the White Sox major league bullpen two months later. His entire minor league experience consists of four relief innings in the Carolina League and six relief innings at AAA. Until this season, he had never started a professional game. Now with 15 starts under his belt Chris is 10-2 in 2012, with a 2.19 ERA — his fielding-independent ERA, according to Fangraphs, is higher but also excellent at 2.58. His 2012 WHIP is 0.955 and hitters have put up a .546 OPS against him. B-ref gives him a WAR for 2012 so far of 4.3, while Fangraphs gives him a 3.5.
A great first half is never a guarantee of a great second half, and a regression to the mean is to be expected over the remaining course of the season. And the White Sox may seek to limit Sale’s innings as the season goes on. But Chris’s bullpen work in 2010-2011 suggests he is not just a half-season fluke, and if the White Sox are in a pennant race down the stretch, they may be unable to keep their best weapon holstered despite concerns over innings pitched totals. Let’s suppose for a minute Sale can add to his 4.3 b-ref WAR in the first half with at least 2.1 WAR in the second half, for a season total of 6.5 or more. That doesn’t seem an unreasonable guess. How many pitchers reach 6.5 in b-ref WAR at age 23 or younger?
Over the past 20 seasons, just two pitchers have put up a b-ref WAR of 6.5 or more in an age 23 or younger season. Ominously, those two seasons were Dontrelle Willis’s 2005 (7.0 WAR) and Mark Prior’s 2003 (7.2 WAR). Dontrelle announced his retirement a few days ago, having added just 2.4 pitching WAR to his career total since that 2005 season. Prior is still trying to get back to the Show (he’s managed seven appearances for Pawtucket this season), but it’s now been nearly six years since his last major league appearance. After that 2003 season his career pitching WAR has been 4.9.
If you go back a bit further into the past, the experience is happier. The four men before Willis and Prior to most recently reach 6.5 WAR in an age 23 season or younger were Mike Mussina in 1992, Jim Abbott in 1991, Bret Saberhagen in 1987 and Roger Clemens in 1986. All but Abbot had long and successful careers, and even Abbott had a few more good seasons remaining after his big early year. It will be interesting to see how the White Sox handle Sale from here on in this season (they momentarily and unsuccessfully moved him back to the bullpen in May), but it may be even more fascinating to see how his long-term future unfolds.
