The year that Tony Gwynn hit .400

Here’s a treat for you. Following is a graph of Tony Gwynn‘s rolling batting average throughout his career for each 162-game period. The first data point is at his 162nd-career game and gives his batting average for his first 162 games.

Click on the image for a slightly larger version.

I’ve labeled many of the high and low points. Right away, you’ll notice that Gwynn hit .402 over a 162-game period ending in 1995. From July 27th 1993 through May 13, 1995, Gwynn appeared in 162 games, and had 704 plate appearances. He had 624 at-bats with 251 hits (.402 BA), as well as 15 HR, 100 RBI, 121 runs scored, a .457 OBP and a .563 SLG.

Other notes about the fabulous Mr. Gwynn:

  • It’s hard not to think of Ted Williams‘ 1941 at this point. That year, Williams batted .406 while leading the league with 37 HR, a .553 OBP, a .735 SLG, and a 235 OPS+. Gwynn was obviously not the same kind of hitter as Williams, never showing that same kind of power. Still over the 1994 season (all of which was encompassed in his .400 season) Gwynn had an OPS+ of 169, his career high. Gwynn also gets high marks for maintaining his average over 624 at-bats. In Williams’ season, he had only 456 at-bats thanks mainly to his very high walk total (and the fact that he didn’t play 162 games.)
  • The lowest “rolling-162” batting average of Gwynn’s career was .290 (actually .28952), which he had after the game on August 1, 1992. His full stat line for the preceding 162, covering back to June 23, 1991, was 702 PAs, 639 at-bats, 8 HR, 51 RBI, 88 runs scored, with a slash line of .290/.348/.388. Decidedly un-Gwynnish, but a “worst” career line that hundreds of ballplayers would gladly take, especially the .348 OBP.
  • Dude closed out his career batting .343 in his final 162 games, slightly higher than his career mark of .338.
  • Those 251 hits Gwynn got over his .400 “season”–that’s an extremely high number. Ichiro had 262 in 2004 (with the benefit of 704 at-bats) and before that the last guy to have so many in a regular season (within a single year) was Bill Terry, with 254 in 1930.

 

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Scott
Scott
12 years ago

This post is interesting because Tony Gwynn really did have a shot at .400 when he batted .394 during the 1994 strike shortened season. To this day, I still think that Tony had the best shot at hitting .400 after Ted Williams. If it hadn’t had happened, I think he would have done it. It would have been close but Mr. Gwynn would have had a .400 season in my opinion. (Also, I think someone around here should do an article on what could have been with the 1994 strike shortened season if it hasn’t been done already. Many interesting… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  Scott

Also, Matt Williams had 43 HR and was projected to hit 62 over a full season, Griffey Jr had 40 HR. Frank Thomas wasn’t that far away from a .500 OBA (.487), Bonds is the only player to do this since 1957. Thomas was also projected to score 152 runs, the most since 1936. I’m not as positive as Scott that Gwynn would’ve hit .400 in 1994. There is a very strong tendency to “regress to the mean” over a full season, even for great players. The 1994 Padres had 45 scheduled games left, about 28% of the season. Gwynn… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
12 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Yankees and Expos in the World Series.

Jimmy Key wins 25 games.

Maddux wins 23 with 15 CG and an era under 1.7

Kenny Lofton has 230 hits and 85 steals… and 10 WAR.

Chuck Knoblauch and Craig Biggio have 65 doubles.

Kirby Puckett has 160 RBI.

Jeff Bagwell has 420 Total Bases.

Tristram12
Tristram12
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Sorry, Voomo, but I think Bagwell would have been stuck at 300 Total Bases. He broke his hand the day before the strike, and probably would have been out for the rest of the season.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
12 years ago
Reply to  Tristram12

Ah. Thanks. I’ve purged most of ’94 from my memory. And I was on strike until ’98, so I have a few gaps.

Howard
Howard
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Fred McGriff might be in both the 50 and 500 HR clubs and have a better chance at the HOF.

Scott
Scott
12 years ago
Reply to  Scott

One other thing I forgot. Mike Mussina could have won 20 games a lot sooner since he was sitting on 16 wins before the strike happened…

Adam Darowski
12 years ago

Oh snap. Now I want to go look at 162-game rolling totals for everything. What would each record look like? And how about back into the 19th century when there were much shorter schedules? Very interesting stuff?

Phil
12 years ago
Reply to  Adam Darowski

I seem to recall that McGwire had topped Maris on a rolling-162 basis before 1998; maybe some portion of his ’96 and ’97 seasons?

Doug
Doug
12 years ago
Reply to  Phil

Joey Bats had 64 HR from May 8, 2010 to May 15, 2011 (162 games).

kds
kds
12 years ago

It is interesting how much up and down there is. BA has more variation than many of the rate stats.

Doing these running totals in terms of 162 team games rather than games played would be closer to our concept of accomplishing something over a season.

topper009
topper009
12 years ago

I think Wade Boggs also hit over .400 for 162 straight games in the late 80s

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago
Reply to  topper009

If I have done my work correctly from 6-9-85 to 6-6-86 to Boggs batted .401. He maintained a .400 pace for one more game.

Doug
Doug
12 years ago
Reply to  topper009

I thought Rod Carew might have done it with his blazing start to 1978 after hitting .388 in 1977. Came really close, but the best 162 games I can find is .399 from 5-14-77 to 5-21-78.

Doug
Doug
12 years ago
Reply to  topper009

Ted Williams did hit .400 over a 162 game stretch – .400 even from Sep 11, 1940 to end of 1941.

He hit .409 over 162 games from Sep 15, 1940 to Apr 17, 1942.

Mark
Mark
12 years ago

Wow, that certainly is a jump in performance starting around 1992 (afraid to say anything more!) — seriously though, I’m as altruistic as anyone, especially with such a “good guy” as Gwynn, but it’s hard to ignore that, uh, enhancement.

Mark
Mark
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Oh gosh, believe it or not, I didn’t mean to “troll” there! My mentality was actually just what you described at first, Andy — I guess I meant just to point out the, I don’t know, unfortunate coincidence of the timing, and the shame it is that we — well, at least I — have been conditioned to be skeptical, even with someone on the purest end of the spectrum. I did the worst job possible of trying not to imply an actual accusation, but either way, the notion was met with precisely the reality-check beat-down (with great factual basis… Read more »

Doug
Doug
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Cool chart BTW, Andy.

Adam Darowski
12 years ago
Reply to  Mark

I truly believe that the run environment went up MLB-wide by 0.48 runs PER GAME simply because Tony Gwynn was enhancing. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

Adam Darowski
12 years ago
Reply to  Adam Darowski

WordPress ate my sarcasm tag!

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  Mark

They starting using a new ball in 1993 yet everyone on the planet is oblivious to this fact. Instead it is much more likely that the whole league all systematically starting using steroids at the same rate and raised the league wide scoring in 1993…even though Canseco had been juicing up with teammates since the 80s?

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  topper009

I could not agree more with this, especially the part where everyone else seems to be oblivious to it.

Tristram12
Tristram12
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Whatever Ted did, it doesn’t beat the 5 year full-seasons run from Rogers Hornsby (.40239 for 1921-1925).

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
12 years ago
Reply to  Tristram12

Well, Hornsby “only” batted
.397
.401
.384

those first three years.

154 games in the .401 season.
And in neither that last 8 games of 1921 or the first 8 games of 1923 did he maintain the pace.

So that throws out those years.
As for his .424 and .403 seasons, those were over 281 games.
Don’t have time to chart it right now, but he probably wan’t over .400 for that entire stretch, either…

birtelcom
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Voomo, I don’t think we are looking for stretches of games where the player was continuously over .400, never falling below that level. Rather, we are looking for stretches where, totaling all games from the first game of the stretch through the last game of the stretch, the player had a total number of hits over the stretch that was at least 40% of his total number of at bats over the stretch. By that latter standard, Tristram is quite right about Hornsby.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Right. I figured that out about 30 minutes after I wrote it.

But I find that way of looking at it more curious.

The first two years of that 5 year stretch he was at .399
After 3 years it was .395
After the 2nd and 3rd year it was .394

It wasn’t until somewhere around his 500th game of that stretch that the avg reached .400

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Try Ty Cobb, starting from 1910-1913; that’s about .401 for just those four full seasons.

birtelcom
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Ted had a multi-year stretch of 168 games (his last 16 games of 1940, his full 143 games of 1941 and his first 9 games of 1942) over which his batting average was .402. Whether that was his longest over-.400 stretch of games, I don’t know.

Doug
Doug
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Also, he maintained a .400 average from games 162 to 168 starting at end of 1941 season (includes last 19 games of 1940), and continuing through the first 6 games of 1942.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

If you count the last 22 games of 1940 instead of the last 19 Wiliams hit .401 over a stretch of 171 games.

Doug
Doug
12 years ago

He did, but he maintained that .400 clip only from games 165 (end of 1941) to 171. So, it’s still only a 7 game stretch.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago

Doug: I meant to reply to birtelcom. I had 22 games in 1940, 143 in 1941 and 6 in 1942.

Jimbo
Jimbo
12 years ago

Fred Mcgriff would’ve likely had his only 40 homer year in ’94, would’ve cleared 500 home runs, and probably would’ve made the hall of fame (more quickly, I think he’ll get there eventually). Albert Belle would’ve quite possibly done the 50 homers/50 doubles thing (which he did in the strike shortened 95 season also. The only player to ever do it, and he would’dve done it twice. Barry Bonds would’ve had a very high chance of going 40/40 for the first time in his career. Jose Canseco, a 40 homer season for the rangers possibly, giving him 40 homer seasons… Read more »

Doug
Doug
12 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

Kirk Gibson also had an odd 1994 season. At age 37, he scored 71 runs from only 382 PAs, an 18.6% rate, 11% better than his next highest rate of 16.8% in his MVP season of 1988.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
12 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

Speaking of Albert Belle and the 50/50 mark, check out his September/Oct (regular season) of 1995: .313/.420/.929 in 120 PA with 15 BB and 14 K. His BABIP? A mere .203. And the most ridiculous part? 31 hits, 10 2Bs, 17 HRs…and 4 singles. A 27 to 4 XBH to single ratio for the month. Shows what a difference a month can make. In August of the same year, he had a similar OPS in a similar # of PAs, had the same number of XBHs, but had 18 singles and a .348 BABIP. But more to the point, in… Read more »

Howard
Howard
12 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

Shucks, Jimbo. I didn’t read the whole thread and made almost exactly the same comment about McGriff (though I speculated he might have hit 50 HRs) in response to an earlier post.

Abbott
Abbott
12 years ago

From 4/7/2001 to 4/17/2002, Barry Bonds hit 80 home runs!

topper009
topper009
12 years ago

From 7/24/1927 to 7/30/1928 Babe Ruth hit 71 HRs

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Only 153 RBI? Slacker. /snark

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago

Luke Appling, from Sept. 8, 1935 (2nd game) through the end of 1936:
— 162 games, 244 hits in 614 ABs, .397 BA, 101 walks, 146 RBI, 129 Runs, only 6 HRs.

Thought I could get him over the hump, but no.

Shping
Shping
12 years ago

@4 kds: “Doing these running totals in terms of 162 team games rather than games played would be closer to our concept of accomplishing something over a season.” Great point, kds. I’m sure it makes all these interesting calculations even more tedious, but almost everybody needs a day off now and then, and eliminating those rest days does skew the results a little. Still lots of good stuff here tho. It also has me curious: If somebody ever miraculously breaks DiMaggio’s 56-gm hitting streak, or even Rose’s at 44, but does it while overlapping the course of 2 two seasons… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Shping

“how many of us would view that streak as legitimate?”
— I’d guess fans of that player and that team, and people under the age of 30.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
12 years ago
Reply to  Shping

I think we’ve actually had a test run, of sorts, Shping. Carl Hubbell broke Rube Marquand’s record of 19 straight wins in 1936/37. A very poopular pitcher, playing for pennant winners in NY – Marquand’s team. How many people think of Hubbell’s 24 rather than Marquand’s 19 when asked what the longest pitcher winning streak is? I think even those who think of Hubbell right away will add, “but he did it over two seasons.”

Shping
Shping
12 years ago
Reply to  Shping

@48 and @53

Hee hee and good examples. Thanks guys. I feel better.

@46

Belive it or not, i’m fairly sure you could also find a 2-year period (or less) where Fielder hit 2 inside-the-park hrs and at least 2-4 triples. My memory is far from perfect, and i’d look it up if i knew how, but i think so.

Shping
Shping
12 years ago
Reply to  Shping

Oops, i meant Prince, and i just noticed you meant Cecil. Nonetheless…

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago
Reply to  Shping

Prince Fielder hit IPHRs on 6-17-2007 and 6-19-2008. Just logon to Baseball Reference, search for Fielder and click on his HR log and scroll.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago

Lefty O’Doul, 4/27/29 through 5/7/30:
— 162 games, 270 hits, 667 ABs, .405 BA, 83 walks, 161 Runs.

In the first 15 games of 1930, he hit .500 with 29 hits — but just 4 RBI.

Phil
12 years ago

I’ve found a number of rolling-162s where Cecil Fielder did not steal a base.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago

Harry Heilmann’s luck holds: I can get both his 1921 (.394) and ’25 (.393) seasons up to .399 with the tail ends of the prior years. His 1927 (.398) cannot be improved with games from either side.

Oh, well — at least he did hit .403 in 1923.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Heilmann and Hornsby are the only two players with a seasonal average of .393 or more 4 times.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago

Ed Delahanty also did this if you count 19th century players (.404, .404, .397, .410)).

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago

Bill Terry:
From 9-21-29 to 9-27-30, 266 hits.

Doug
Doug
12 years ago

Ichiro had 268 hits from 4-9-2004 to 4-8-2005.

bstar
12 years ago

Todd Helton had 63 doubles from 6/2/2000 to 5/27/2001.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

He’s no Earl Webb, though (it’s the yahoo-Red Sox fan in me…).

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Ha, no Helton was no Earl Webb but it would have been really cool to see someone get to 60 doubles for the first time since the mid-30s(he missed by one in 2000).

Jeff
Jeff
11 years ago

Does anyone think it was easier to hit in the 30s-60s? I mean have middle infielder become faster? Have center fielders become faster along with entire outfield? Have pitchers developed more pitches with more movement, do managers now take pitchers out in the 6th inning and go to a middle relief and then closer now? All these are huge factors in ones batting average, I have watched tapes of old timers throwing. If you think Tony Gwynn would not have hit 430 when Tedd or Cobbs played your crazy. I played ball and when you where getting your third ab… Read more »

mosc
mosc
11 years ago
Reply to  Jeff

See, this post is why I prefer a forum to the newspost style presentation. You can only see Jeff’s comments on the “new post” section while it’s one of the most recent few and the topic could keep going long after it’s off of the front page. We could also search for content easier.

Hodor
Hodor
4 years ago

Hodor! Hodor!