Knuckleballers, by days of rest

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With R.A. Dickey scheduled to start Sunday night on 5 days’ rest, let’s look at the “days of rest” splits of the most prominent recent knuckleballers (in starts only). I have included all splits that cover at least 10 starts, but my comparative statements are based only on those lines with at least 30 starts.

Even if you care nothing for this topic, I urge you to savor the line of Wilbur Wood on 2 days’ rest.

Tim Wakefield: Better with 4 days’ rest than with 5.

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
3 Days,GS	19	503	450	71	115	19	3	22	9	7	40	76	1.90	.256	.321	.458	.778
4 Days,GS	225	6241	5557	793	1383	298	26	177	202	55	518	963	1.86	.249	.320	.407	.728
5 Days,GS	140	3787	3368	496	889	208	10	116	123	41	340	554	1.63	.264	.337	.435	.772
6+ Days,GS	62	1655	1461	214	375	70	5	47	59	17	154	241	1.56	.257	.334	.408	.742

All tables generated via Baseball-Reference.com on 6/22/2012.

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Tom Candiotti: Slightly better with 5 days’ rest than with 4 (the difference is all in SLG).

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
3 Days,GS	17	468	414	55	97	22	4	8	9	2	41	63	1.54	.234	.306	.365	.671
4 Days,GS	216	5986	5414	676	1381	226	29	140	161	61	444	907	2.04	.255	.314	.385	.699
5 Days,GS	116	3194	2842	351	714	117	11	60	78	25	246	488	1.98	.251	.313	.363	.677
6+ Days,GS	55	1457	1307	165	358	66	6	33	37	10	118	196	1.66	.274	.338	.409	.747

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Charlie Hough: Best with 3 days’ rest; better with 4 than with 5.

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
3 Days,GS	60	1838	1616	195	366	73	8	40	48	20	174	289	1.66	.226	.309	.356	.665
4 Days,GS	236	6827	5996	771	1415	263	31	170	156	78	664	971	1.46	.236	.316	.375	.691
5 Days,GS	96	2747	2426	350	604	92	20	77	70	26	258	373	1.45	.249	.325	.399	.724
6+ Days,GS	44	1214	1063	129	247	31	8	30	16	13	121	153	1.26	.232	.317	.361	.678

_______________

Phil Niekro: An odd pattern — better with 3 or 5 days’ rest than with 4; worst with 6+.

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
3 Days,GS	255	7995	7225	788	1752	259	46	174	165	81	599	1216	2.03	.242	.303	.363	.666
4 Days,GS	270	8006	7204	838	1801	246	42	174	149	92	639	1194	1.87	.250	.314	.368	.682
5 Days,GS	93	2767	2499	270	600	86	13	57	48	24	226	391	1.73	.240	.304	.353	.657
6+ Days,GS	58	1599	1427	193	386	78	13	37	37	10	153	205	1.34	.270	.342	.421	.763

_______________

Joe Niekro: Better with 4 days’ rest than with 5; not good with either 3 or 6.

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
3 Days,GS	126	3215	2875	414	791	113	16	73	80	34	277	341	1.23	.275	.338	.402	.740
4 Days,GS	233	6599	5953	629	1442	207	34	98	199	61	534	787	1.47	.242	.306	.338	.644
5 Days,GS	72	2012	1820	206	459	62	13	42	60	10	152	228	1.50	.252	.310	.370	.680
6+ Days,GS	52	1308	1157	192	341	59	10	32	43	6	121	141	1.17	.295	.362	.446	.808

_______________

Wilbur Wood: Hee-hee-hee! Oh, sorry … Best with 2 days’ rest; better with 3 than with 4, but long rest also suited him.

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2 Days,GS	71	2262	2088	199	490	67	16	36	51	22	125	333	2.66	.235	.281	.334	.615
3 Days,GS	153	4536	4170	496	1132	173	20	90	82	48	270	535	1.98	.271	.317	.387	.704
4 Days,GS	37	1011	903	135	253	39	6	28	26	16	77	106	1.38	.280	.341	.430	.770
5 Days,GS	10	285	255	28	55	11	2	6	5	3	22	38	1.73	.216	.276	.345	.621
6+ Days,GS	22	632	561	52	132	16	2	10	10	11	53	69	1.30	.235	.307	.324	.631

_______________

R.A. Dickey (2010-12 only): No significant difference, but better SO/BB with 4 days’ rest.

[table id=59 /]

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I don’t think there’s enough here to draw strong conclusions, and of course Dickey’s own tendencies would have the most predictive value for him. But I think there is some evidence that a knuckleballer is better off pitching with the least rest that he can regularly accommodate.

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mosc

12 years ago

The sample size is too small to really draw a conclusion. You’re pulling players from different eras with different arsenals. Dickey is very unusual in his Knuckleballing in that he throws a comparably zippy knuckler quite frequently and also mixes in more than a few fastballs (he calls it a sinker despite often choosing to work up and in with it as a change of pace). Wakefield threw about 85% knuckleballs and they were all 65-70mph. He’s also mix in a 70mph or so curve and very rarely a 80-85 mph straight as an arrow 4SFB. Dickey’s fastball isn’t the… Read more »

brp

12 years ago

Reply to mosc

Re: Dickey being an outlier because of his “fast” knuckler, he probably needs more rest than a Niekro or Wakefield-type. However for a more typical knuckleballer, if such a beast exists, I can see how less rest would make sense. It seems throwing the knuckler is all about being on or off, or in a groove. If the knuckler was humming 3 days ago, why not pitch the guy again? There’s a better chance the pitcher will still have “it” than if waiting another few days. I look at it similar to a streaky hitter and how a lot of… Read more »

Gabriel

12 years ago

How does this compare with pitchers as a whole? Anyway, we see that the amount of rest doesn’t seem to hurt knuckleballer performance. The real question is what’s the downside? Obviously, you have to balance the desire of having your best pitcher throw as often as possible (which doesn’t seem to particularly hurt the performance of these knuckleballers) with the risk of injury. If the Mets continue to be in the pennant race in mid-August or so, I would certainly imagine that they’ll talk to their doctors, review Dickey’s injury history, examine his mechanics, and try to see if he… Read more »

Mike A.

12 years ago

Did you miss Wood’s performance with zero days rest? 😉

(I seem to recall that he once started — and lost — both games of a doubleheader against the Yankees. He was knocked out early in Game One, so they brought him back for Game Two.)

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Mike A.

I posted about that doubleheader a while back. It occurred on July 20, 1973. He was removed from the first game without retiring a batter (although he struck out one guy who then reached first on a passed ball). He did a little better in the second game going 4.1 innings but still lost.

Jimbo

12 years ago

I think there is an MLB conspiracy of some sorts to keep knuckleballers out. I simply find it impossible to believe that in the last 10 years the only guys able to throw MLB level knuckleballs were the aging Wakefield, and a reborn ex-washed up player in Dickey. It simply doesn’t make any sense. It truly isn’t THAT hard to learn. Difficult yes, but something is wrong with this. When was the last time we saw a lefty throwing knuckleballs? I don’t think I’ve ever seen it. Can you imagine how difficult it would be for batters to his a… Read more »

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

Jimbo, the “unfamiliarity” explanation sounds reasonable, but I don’t think it fits the data. — Dickey is in his 3rd season with the Mets, and having his best results ever. — In another thread, I commented that the times in which Dickey has faced the same team within a short span of time do not show that team hitting him any better the 2nd time — if anything, those data point the other way. — Phil Niekro was consistently effective in the NL West, with an unbalanced schedule, from 1969-82. He had ups and downs like any pitcher, but no… Read more »

MatthewC

12 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

I’ve got to agree. It is slightly bizarre that given the resources teams expend developing players all over the world that there isn’t a single team with a Knuckleball Factory, at least trying to turn some of its failed 4A pitchers into knuckleballers. Why, just on my Twins alone … Oh, wait, we did have Dickey?

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

Here’s Gene Bearden, lefty.
Ted Williams is quoted here as saying he was knuckleballer.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

I assume you were trying to link to Bearden’s Sabr Bio Page, Voomo. That’s where the quote from Ted Williams came. Here’s an excerpt from his bio, describing his breakout rookie season and detailing how much he pitched the last few weeks of the season on limited rest, to great success: [“….On September 16, the Indians and the Red Sox each had 87 wins. Boudreau relied heavily on Bearden. He started him in five of the remaining 15 games and Bearden won them all, despite pitching with limited rest between starts. Bearden’s 8-0 shutout of the Detroit Tigers on October… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

Richard Daniel Sauveur

Position: Pitcher
Bats: Left, Throws: Left
Height: 6′ 4″, Weight: 163 lb.

He holds the record for “most clubs pitched for, without a win”.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sauveri01.shtml

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/03/08/red-sox-terry-francona-rich-sauveur-tim-wakefield-the-left-handed-knuckleballers/

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

I think the “conspiracy” is on trying to throw the knuckleball. Most of these guys spend years trying to perfect it. If it was easy, plenty of fringy prospects would be trying to throw it just on the hopes they might stick.

Jim Bouldin

12 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

I think an important issue in the question Jimbo raises is the whole catcher/base-stealer issue. Obviously, a big drawback to the floater is it’s almost as hard to catch as it is to hit. There’s a real important (potential) non-linearity here, in that, if you keep people off base then you’re fine. But because the k-ball is so hard to control, there should tend to be a lot of walks, and once you have guys on base you enter a whole ‘nother realm of troubles, given how slow it is to the plate, and hard for the catcher to handle… Read more »

no statistician but

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

Jimbo:

Since I’m an old-timer, the knuckleballer I think of first is Hoyt Wilhelm, and my recollection is this: lots of passed balls and wild pitches, lots of athleticism on the parts of catchers. At Baseball-Ref I can’t find any data on passed balls by pitcher, but I’d suspect the rate is higher for knuckleballers generally, as it is for wild pitches.

My brother, not a pitcher, threw a knuckler for fun when we were both players, and that thing was a devil to catch.

Jim Bouldin

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

Here are some career numbers for the all time best k-ballers:

Pitcher K/BB CS/SB %R/BR
P Niekro 1.85 216/446 33.1
Wood 1.99 118/206 32.8
Hough 1.42 170/398 35.0
Candiotti 1.97 101/293 35.5
Wakefield 1.79 137/448 43.1
Dickey(2012) 9.40 2/0 26.7

CS/SB = caught stealing/stolen bases
%R/BR = percentage of baserunners who score (includes HRs and non-earned runs)

Jim Bouldin

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

correction, Dickey’s K/BB ratio is 4.90, not 9.40
dyslexics of the world untie!

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

A college classmate of mine has done research on the physics of the knuckleball. His name is Joel Hollenberg and if you Google his name you can retrieve his writings on the subject.

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

Dickey’s move to 1st is very good. Last year, there were just 7 successful steals in 10 tries, out of 319 chances — and, separate from that, he picked off 5 runners.

So this year, between that knowledge, the scarcity of baserunners against him, and the fact that he’s usually had a lead, there have been just 2 attempts, none successful.

Mike A.

12 years ago

Actually, re my last comment, BR shows that as -1 days of rest! (It would be zero if he pitched the next day.)

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Re: starting a knuckleballer (or any SP) more than once per 5 games: One thing I learned from playing Strat-O-Matic is how hard it can be to juggle a rotation of guys with different rest needs. In S-O-M, starters are rated on how often they can start — some can go every 4th game, some every 5th game, and some (who mostly relieved that year) just every 6th game. If you have a 5-man rotation with a mix of even 4-game and 5-game starters, and your schedule has no doubleheaders and few off days (like the modern MLB schedule), it’s… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I’ve been thinking of the three-inning starter concept lately. What I would like to see attempted is a pitching rotation where the batters never get that 3rd at bat against any pitcher. Or, most importantly, the Top of The Order never sees a pitcher 3 times. To do this, I would implement an “Opener”. A pitcher with the same mentality at a “Closer”. Except he pitches the first inning. First inning. You are always either protecting a lead or a tie. And you are always facing the other teams’ best hitters. With all the pitching specialization nowadays, this is a… Read more »

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

I’d love to see it tried, Voomo. I would call the first pitcher the Satchel, in honor of “The Great Satchel Paige — Guaranteed to Strike Out the First Nine Men.”

Jimbo

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

I too have thought about this. In other ways too. The 1st inning is a crucial inning. The opposite is how much it bothers me when a team has a low OBP guy batting leadoff. Giving the other team the 1st out of the game and letting him get his groove going. I generally think the highest OBP player on a team should always bat leadoff, unless he’s your best slugger. In that case he should bat 2nd or 3rd, with the player (s) in front of him being the other highest OBP’s on the team. Speed at the top… Read more »

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

One more observation about knuckleballers: They tend to have much smaller platoon splits than a conventional pitcher.

Wakefield, Candiotti, P.Niekro, Hough, Wood and Wilhelm had no significant difference vs. lefties and righties. J.Niekro had a more conventional split, but I think he didn’t throw the knuckler as often as his brother. Dickey had a pronounced reverse split in 2010, shifting towards conventional in 2011-12; probably close to neutral if you combine them.

MatthewC

12 years ago

I think the reason we won’t see Dickey throwing in the bullpen between starts is that he is so successful with things just as they are. There is a HUGE bias in baseball not to mess around with things that are working. (Just think of the team not talking to a pitcher during a no-hitter, or players not wanting to talk about a hitting streak, players who wear the same underwear during a winning streak.) Sure, it might turn out that pitching Dickey an extra 5-10 innings of relief a month would maximize his usefulness to the team. On the… Read more »

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to MatthewC

Matthew, I agree that that is the way things stand. I would just add that, as much as what you describe is a bias for “don’t mess with what’s working,” it’s also a simpler bias towards the conventional.

But necessity can be the mother of the unconventional. If the Mets should remain in contention past the All-Star break, but continue to have poor performance from the bullpen, the incentive to do something unconventional with Dickey will grow stronger.

12 years ago

Can somebody explain Strat-O-Matic to this humble foreigner? It’s like a mix between fantasy football and top trumps? How long does a game take? What are the victory conditions?

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to RJ

You roll special dice, and the combinations of the die represent certain on-field events, based on their probability of happening. The more sophisticated versions of the game are adjusted for fielding ability and park effects. That’s a start.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to RJ

Lawrence gave you the gist of it, RJ. It’s a simulation of an actual baseball game, based on the past performance of actual players, via cards and dice. It’s not the least bit like fantasy anything. Victory conditions are when one team is ahead at the end of 9 full innings or any full inning thereafter. Experienced players can play a game in 20-30 minutes. The “board game” version, which is all I’ve ever played, has individual player cards that reproduce, along probability lines, the player’s actual performance in a given season. The game is transacted on a “play by… Read more »

Richard Chester

12 years ago

During the WWII years the Senators had 5 pitchers on their staff who were knuckleballers: Dutch Leonard, Roger Wolff, Mickey Haefner, John Niggeling and Bil Lefebvre. Catchers Rick Ferrell and Mike Guerra had their work cut out for themselves

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11 years ago

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JC Denton

2 years ago

Awesome piece and some great comments. Just wish I had seen this 10 years ago lol. Here’s another thought on knuckleballers from a Moneyball/roster management standpoint: Given that they can go far more innings pitched and with fewer days rest than conventional pitchers, imagine a rotation/bullpen with multiple knuckleballers who are each the equivalent of two or even three “conventional” pitchers, thereby requiring fewer total pitchers on your roster, thereby freeing up roster spots and contract money that can be utilized to beef up other positions. Obviously, there simply aren’t enough knuckleballers available these days to implement something like that.… Read more »