Friday performance notes, etc. |

Friday’s best and worst in Win Probability Added (WPA):

Pitchers — C.J. Wilson, 0.382 (8 IP, 1 R in a game that was fairly close until the 9th); Brian Fuentes, -0.909 (4th-worst of the year; he also owns the worst — see below).

Hitters — Ryan Roberts, 0.956 (see below); Colby Rasmus, -0.238 (0-5 in a close game, including the last out of the 9th with the go-ahead run on 3rd).

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Brian Fuentes had 2 outs, none on and a 2-run lead in the 9th. Then he walked Chris Young on 5 pitches, allowed a hit on an 0-2 count, and gave up a walk-off HR to Ryan Roberts. It was the 2nd game-winning HR of Roberts’ career, each coming with 2 outs and his team down at least 2, each earning 0.91 WPA. He’s the only player since 2009 with two 2-out, walk-off-when-trailing HRs.

It was the 2nd time in 10 days that Fuentes served up a 2-out, 3-run, just-enough-to-end-it HR. Only 2 others have allowed 2 game-winning HRs this year, including the guy who got the win on Roberts’s blow, J.J. Putz.

Ryan Cook struck out 3 in the 8th against his former team, but he did allow a hit for the 2nd time in 3 games. That’s 7 hits in 26 IP — 7 for 82, .085. No pitcher with 20+ IP has ever held opponents below a .108 average; the record for 40+ IP is .133.

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Joey Votto‘s on-base percentage has been .414 or better the past 3 seasons, and he’s led the NL in OBP the last 2 years. Friday, he raised his 2012 mark to .480. The Barry Bonds run from 2001-04 (averaging a .559 OBP) may have dulled our sense of the rarity of such a mark. Only 11 players have had a qualifying season at .480 or higher — 8 who are in the Hall, plus Bonds and Frank Thomas, and Norm Cash in his one great year.

Votto’s slash combo — .360 BA, .480 OBP and .640 slugging — is even rarer. I knocked 10 points off each and ran the search: Only 9 players have ever had a qualifying season at .350/.470/.630 — again, 6 HOFers, plus Bonds, Thomas and Cash.

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Stephen Strasburg whiffed 13 BoSox in 6 IP, allowing 2 runs while throwing 119 pitches, 11 more than his previous high. It was the 25th time in 29 career starts that he allowed 3 runs or less. Only one other pitcher has done that in searchable history: Sid Fernandez, 1983-85.

To keep things in perspective, though, let’s add that Strasburg is also the 10th pitcher ever to go no more than 7 IP in each of his first 29 starts. That group includes his teammate, Jordan Zimmermann, who took the streak to 39 games — apparently the record, shared by 11 others — before finally going 8 IP. (Zimmermann has made 60 starts; he had a 4.55 ERA in his first 30, but 2.84 in his next 30.)

Bryce Harper had a HR, double and single, raising his OPS to .899. The highest qualifying teenage season ever (there have been just 15) was .921 by Mel Ott; next highest was .761 by Freddie Lindstrom.

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From 1918 through 1980, there were only 10 games in which the starter went at least 6 IP and did not allow a hit, but did not complete the game. From 1981 to the present, there have been 28 such games. After adjusting for the number of teams and length of schedule, such games have been 3.6 times as common in the current period.

The Seattle-LA game was just the 5th this year in which both starters went at least 6 scoreless innings. The previous 5 seasons saw an average of 21 such games.

The AL now leads the NL 4-2 in interleague no-hitters … 5-2 if you include Larsen. On the other hand, the NL still leads 33-28 in 1-0 wins (regular season only).

The last 2 no-hitters against the Dodgers were of the combined variety. The last individual no-hitter vs. LAD was in 1994 by Kent Mercker. (That’s also the last no-hitter by the Braves, individual or combined.)

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Matt Harrison has 3 shutouts in 74 career starts. Only 6 active pitchers have a higher ratio.

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Dan Uggla had his second 4-walk game this year and third of his career. He’s on pace for personal bests of 112 walks, 117 runs and a .384 OBP.

Kyle Drabek had his second K-free start, a year and a day since his first one. He now leads the majors with 45 walks, averaging 6.0 BB/9 this year and 5.8 for his career. If only there were some other training ground for him to work on his one-to-one SO/BB ratio….

Atlanta hit no HRs and went 0-12 with RISP. They scored their 4 runs on a bases-full walk, a double after a walk, a balk by a guy named Beck, and finally an overthrow on a steal of third. Francisco Cordero used to be pretty good at containing base thieves, but since 2010 they’re 24 and 3 against him.

Toronto didn’t get a hit with RISP, either (0-6). They scored their 3 runs on a solo HR, a groundout after a bunt that advanced 2 runners, and a pair of groundouts after a double.

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Have big-league brothers ever slumped so deeply in the same year as Jemile and Rickie Weeks? Last year, the fraternal second basemen hit .303 and .269, respectively, with OPS+ of 109 and 121. This year, Jemile is at .219/73, and big brother Rickie at .157/56 while leading the NL in strikeouts.

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The Padres got 2 HRs, 2 triples and 3 doubles, but scored just 5 runs and lost. Since 2007, teams with at least 2 of each XBH are 67-8 while averaging 10 runs; none has scored less than 5 runs. It’s the 10th time the Padres have ever notched at least 2 of each variety, but the first time they scored less than 8 runs.

At 19-40, the Padres are on pace to tie their franchise high of 110 losses, set in their maiden year. They’ve not lost more than 102 since then, and haven’t lost 100 since 1993.

Remember when Dale Thayer was San Diego’s closer? He got 5 straight saves in mid-May, and didn’t allow a run in his first 10 games. Since then, 10 runs in 4.2 IP, including 3 Friday — in the 7th inning.

Milwaukee is 14th in NL batting, 11th in OBP, but 2nd in HRs and 4th in Runs.

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If it seems like a lot of teams are struggling with the bases loaded, it’s not your imagination. Over the past 3 years, the MLB average with the sacks full was .277 (.279 in 2009, .281 in 2010, .270 last year). This year, it’s .249. By comparison, this year’s BA compared to 2011 is just 2 points lower with none on, and 3 points lower with RISP over all.

Batting average with the bases loaded is virtually always higher than in any situation that doesn’t have a man on 3rd, because sac flies don’t count as ABs. But bases-loaded sac flies are in decline: 373 in 2009, 347 in 2010 and 310 last year. This year’s pace is about 275.

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Jed Lowrie hit his 11th HR Saturday [and 12th Sunday]. The Houston SS record is 20, by Dickie Thon in 1983; no other Astros SS hit more than 15.

And yet … if you’re thinking that Boston’s “step down” from Lowrie to Mike Aviles is part of their problems, consider that Aviles currently ranks 8th in the AL with 2.2 WAR, a little higher than Lowrie, mainly on the strength of his defense.

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12 years ago

Indians’ pitcher Josh Tomlin now has hits in all three of his starts against NL teams. Pretty incredible since he only had one plate appearance in each of his first two starts. And he reportedly never had a plate appearance in the minors or in college.

So here’s a question for you PI experts…who was the last AL pitcher to begin their career with a three game hitting streak???

Author

John Autin

Reply to Ed

That would be Jackin’ Zach Britton, the Ace of Pitchers’ Hittin’ — he had 5 hits, with a HR and double, in his first 3 batting games:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/12592

Richard Chester

Reply to John Autin

It looks like Don Sutton holds the pitcher’s record (since 1918) by beginning his career with a 5 game hitting streak. He was 7 for 16. Unfortunately it was not a harbinger of things to come, his lifetime BA was .144. Eight guys started outwith a 4 game streak.

Reply to Richard Chester

Cool, thanks for the info! So Tomlin could tie for second in his next NL park start.

Ed, I reran the search. Two guys started out with a 4 game hitting streak, not eight. They were Lou Kretlow and Bill Henry.

Josh Tomlin now has hits in all 4 of his NL starts! (sadly his hitting was better than his pitching and the Tribe is losing badly). Only one more to tie Sutton!

Doug

That Toronto game with its dearth of big plays also took almost 4 painful hours to play. The balk call which scored Atlanta’s go-ahead third run in the 6th was awful. With runners at first and third, the right-hander Beck did the old step off and fake the throw to third move, which looked perfectly normal in the eyes of the three umpires who had a good look at it – it was only the first base umpire who called the balk. Jose Bautista is heating up – at least power-wise. He has 5 homers in his last 7 games,… Read more »

BTW, some guy named Albert Pujols now has a 107 OPS+. Seems like he might be a decent player. Anyone heard anything about him???? 🙂

nightfly

Well, he ain’t no Garret Anderson!! 😀

Tmckelv

Did I see Prince Albert picking it at 3rd Friday night. Looked like he made a nice play.

Reply to Tmckelv

Hey, if Miguel Cabrera can do it….

bstar

Interestingly, JA, Kent Mercker also pitched the first 6 innings of the second-to-last no-hitter that the Braves pitched, getting help from Mark Wohlers and Alejandro Pena against the Padres on 9/11/91:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL199109110.shtml

Reply to bstar

Bstar – Isn’t it amazing that with all the great pitchers the Braves have had recently that the only two no hitters were both started by Kent Mercker?

Ed, I found another game that would qualify as a 6-inning no-hitter by Mercker, once again against the Padres. The Braves ended up one-hitting San Diego while Ron Gant hit a solo shot off a young Trevor Hoffman in the 10th inning to seal a 1-0 win:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN199309090.shtml

Yes, I don’t recall Mercker really having “no-hit stuff”. In fact, I’d completely forgotten about his solo no-hitter in ’94.

Joey Votto also has yet to hit an infield fly ball out this year. It’s rare to have a quibble with anything B-Ref does, but their version of InField Fly Ball rates(normally IFFB%)includes line outs caught by infielders and is called IF/FB ratio. But we’re not interested in line outs, we want to know how rarely a player made an easy out by popping out to the second baseman. So you have to go to Fangraphs to get their IFFB%, and you will find that Votto went all of his 2010 MVP season without an infield pop-up, and in his… Read more »

MikeD

“Bryce Harper had a HR, double and single, raising his OPS to .899. The highest qualifying teenage season ever (there have been just 15) was .921 by Mel Ott; next highest was .761 by Freddie Lindstrom.”
——-

Two HOFers. Good sign in the early going for Harper. Yet why is Lindstrom in the Hall? His numbers don’t scream HOFer.

Hartvig

Reply to MikeD

I think his former teammate Bill Terry was on the HOF Veterans Committee in 1975 (plus a couple of others who had links to the Giants in the years he played), if I’m remembering my Bill James correctly. It does look more than a little ridiculous that he’s in but Robin Ventura or Matt Williams can barely manage 1% in their only try not to mention that the year before he was elected Ken Boyer got 2.5% from the BBWAA. His selection is probably one of the easiest and clearest arguments that people who favor sabermetrics and statistical analysis have… Read more »

Reply to Hartvig

From his SABR bio: “An intensive lobbying campaign by his son Andy and the fact that his former teammate Frankie Frisch headed the Veterans Committee at the time may have contributed to his selection”.

http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/b4f653b8

Thanks Hartvig and Ed.

Ahh Frankie Frisch. The Fordham Flash. He was responsible for pushing through several questionable players.

Even if Lindstrom was a great fielder (something that I don’t think there’s anyway to truly assess looking back), and made other intangible contributions, he doesn’t seem like a HOFer, even with the low number of 3B’man inducted into the Hall. Nettles, Bell and eventually Rolen should be in if Lindstrom is. Even without Lindstrom in, arguments can be made for those three.