Is Brett Lawrie one of the greatest fielders ever?

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This post was suggested by reader Paul E who remarked on the defensive accomplishments of Brett Lawrie of the Blue Jays. Toronto acquired Lawrie from the Brewers after the 2010 season, and brought him up to the big team in mid-summer last year. Other than a week missed to injury at the end of last season, he’s been the Jays’ regular third baseman since.

As of this writing, Lawrie has a career of slightly less than half of a 162 game season. Yet, he is in a tie for 13th place since 1901 among all non-pitchers in WAR fielding runs accumulated in the first two seasons of a career.

Here’s the list.

Rk	Player	Rfield	OPS+	WAR/pos	From	To	Age	G	PA	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	Pos	Tm
1	Glenn Wright	43	99	9.5	1924	1925	23-24	306	1322	177	366	25	232	58	84	.298	.330	.453	*6/5	PIT
2	Austin Jackson	42	95	9.6	2010	2011	23-24	304	1343	193	328	14	86	103	351	.271	.331	.387	*8/D	DET
3	Phil Rizzuto	41	100	9.3	1941	1942	23-24	277	1160	144	315	7	114	71	76	.295	.343	.386	*6	NYY
4	Kirby Puckett	40	86	6.0	1984	1985	24-25	289	1327	143	364	4	105	57	156	.292	.325	.363	*8	MIN
5	Barry Bonds	32	110	8.8	1986	1987	21-22	263	1095	171	236	41	107	119	190	.245	.329	.460	*87/9	PIT
6	Rey Ordonez	31	50	0.9	1996	1997	25-26	271	921	86	206	2	63	40	89	.240	.275	.283	*6	NYM
7	Jason Heyward	30	115	8.7	2010	2011	20-21	270	1079	133	234	32	114	142	221	.255	.362	.427	*9	ATL
8	Ozzie Guillen	30	64	3.4	1985	1986	21-22	309	1090	129	271	3	80	24	88	.261	.278	.333	*6/D	CHW
9	Bobby Knoop	30	83	4.4	1964	1965	25-26	304	1051	89	230	14	81	77	210	.242	.301	.330	*4	LAA-CAL
10	Joe Gordon	30	116	9.2	1938	1939	23-24	278	1169	175	278	53	208	131	129	.271	.357	.504	*4	NYY
11	Chris Singleton	29	87	5.4	1999	2000	26-27	280	1096	155	279	28	134	57	130	.277	.314	.435	*8/7D9	CHW
12	Hobe Ferris	29	78	2.9	1901	1902	26-27	272	1100	125	253	10	126	44	102	.248	.283	.365	*4/6	BOS
13	Brett Lawrie	28	127	5.5	2011	2012	21-22	75	305	42	79	12	42	23	54	.288	.353	.500	*/5D**	TOR
14	Evan Longoria	28	130	11.2	2008	2009	22-23	279	1179	167	286	60	198	118	262	.277	.355	.528	*5/D6	TBR
15	Mark Kotsay	28	89	3.6	1997	1998	21-22	168	680	77	171	11	72	38	68	.271	.313	.390	*9/83	FLA
16	Andruw Jones	28	90	3.3	1996	1997	19-20	184	580	71	115	23	83	63	136	.228	.317	.422	*9/87	ATL

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/11/2012.

So, all of the players ahead of him have at least 3 times as many PAs and 3.5 times as many games. At his current rate and barring injury, Lawrie will be at the top of this list by the end of the year, and probably by a comfortable margin. And, in just a season and a quarter of playing time!

So, how do Lawrie’s fielding runs compare as a rate stat? I’ll use PAs as a measure of playing time and compare to WAR Fielding Runs. Here are the players to accumulate career WAR Fielding Runs of more than 3.5% of PAs (min. 300 PAs).

Rk	Player	Rfield	OPS+	WAR/pos	PA	From	To	Age	G	Rfield% of PAs	BA	OBP	SLG	Pos	Tm
1	Mark Belanger	240	68	37.6	6601	1965	1982	21-38	2016	3.6%	.228	.300	.280	*6/45	BAL-LAD
2	Adam Everett	111	66	10.7	3070	2001	2011	24-34	880	3.6%	.242	.294	.346	*6/54D	HOU-MIN-DET-CLE
3	Brett Gardner	78	92	14.3	1616	2008	2012	24-28	468	4.8%	.265	.355	.368	*78/D	NYY
4	Mike Benjamin	78	61	6.1	2124	1989	2002	23-36	817	3.7%	.229	.277	.339	654/3D19	SFG-PHI-BOS-PIT
5	Brendan Ryan	68	77	11.4	1928	2007	2012	25-30	566	3.5%	.251	.312	.334	*6/4597	STL-SEA
6	Tsuyoshi Shinjo	34	77	3.4	960	2001	2003	29-31	303	3.5%	.245	.299	.370	*8/79	NYM-SFG
7	Peter Bourjos	29	99	6.5	806	2010	2012	23-25	219	3.6%	.249	.300	.414	*8/D	LAA
8	Brett Lawrie	28	127	5.5	305	2011	2012	21-22	75	9.2%	.288	.353	.500	*/5D**	TOR
9	Don Kelly	26	74	2.1	663	2007	2012	27-32	307	3.9%	.241	.287	.357	7/5938D6421	PIT-DET
10	Brett Carroll	20	58	1.0	324	2007	2012	24-29	180	6.2%	.201	.280	.319	/*978	FLA-MIL-WSN
11	Roy Staiger	19	65	2.1	496	1975	1979	25-29	152	3.8%	.228	.274	.300	*5/6	NYM-NYY
12	Kimera Bartee	18	49	0.4	473	1996	2001	23-28	243	3.8%	.216	.282	.298	*8/7D9	DET-CIN-COL
13	Brian Bogusevic	13	105	2.2	321	2010	2012	26-28	134	4.0%	.257	.335	.405	/978	HOU
14	Casper Wells	13	116	3.2	371	2010	2012	25-27	146	3.5%	.259	.327	.461	/*978D	DET-TOT-SEA
15	Charles Gipson	13	69	0.6	366	1998	2005	25-32	373	3.6%	.237	.311	.327	7/985D64	SEA-NYY-TBD-HOU

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/11/2012.

That 9.2% Rfield per PA kind of stands out, doesn’t it? Nobody else over 6.2% and only one other above 4.8%. Also, it seems you should be named Brett if you want to be a top fielder – the three Bretts on this list have the top 3 scores.

I know what you’re going to say – sample size, sample size, sample size. Most of the players here are active or had only very short careers. And, only the top 2 players on this list had careers of a significant length, so maintaining Fielding Runs at this rate for an extended period isn’t likely. True enough. But, for Lawrie, we’re not talking about having a good week or a good month – it is half a season of everyday work. Is it likely that, playing everyday over that long a period, defensive stats could be so massively skewed from representing true ability? Skewed somewhat, sure – but as much as this appears to be? I guess I’ll let you statisticians out there answer those last two questions.

So, is it a mirage or could we be looking at one of the best defensive third basemen ever? What do you think?

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John B

12 years ago

Well, I’d like to see him in action.

Baseball Reference redid it’s WAR calculations – supposedly, they’re more accurate, but I’ve got to imagine there are some kinks to iron out.

He’s on a pace of 7.3 dWAR/162, through half a season.

No one in history, at any position, has ever gotten more than 4.

This would be the equivalent of someone getting to the all-star break with 60 HR.

John B

12 years ago

Reply to John B

Err, I guess Darrin Erstad’s 2002 season with 4.2 is the highest? As far as I can tell. My bad.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to John B

“This would be the equivalent of someone getting to the all-star break with 60 HR.”

Indeed it would. And yet he already has 1.6 dWAR in the bank for one-fifth of this season, the same as he had for his quarter-season’s work in 2011.

Since he’s playing everyday, hard to imagine that whatever he’s doing now would suddenly just stop. While I too can’t imagine Lawrie could amass 7.3 dWAR, Erstad’s 4.2 mark would certainly seem to be in range.

Kevin

12 years ago

I wonder how many of those DRS for Lawrie come from the more abundant use of shifts. He’s been by the SS-2B position for Gonzalez and Ortiz, to give a couple of examples.

Neil L.

12 years ago

Reply to Kevin

The Jays are defensively shifting a great deal, Kevin, so there is no doubt his defensive metrics are getting a boost from putouts from short right field. He usually switches over to play between first and second for left handed batters. However, that being said, he is incredibly quick on his feet and very mobile to either side. With apologies to poster Timmy Pea, I would describe Brett Lawrie as cat-like in the field. Add to his natural athleticism his willingness to get his uniform dirty, and you’ve got a pretty good package defensively. There’s no way I would have… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Neil L.

Speaking of cat-like quickness, check out Johan.

Paul E

12 years ago

There is no way humanly possibly Lawrie could be THAT superior a defender unless it is tied to the positional shifts. Give him another 4 1/2 months and if he looks just as outrageously superior to his peers (Beltre, healthy Longoria & Zimmerman), it’s got to be the shift. No?

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Paul E

The shift may help, but hard to imagine it would account for this much of a disparity. You’re talking about a defensive scheme used for a handful of dead-pull LH hitters – it’s not like that’s going to double your dWAR. And, that’s not even accounting for the fielding opportunities lost when the shift backfires.

Evan

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Lawrie has been involved in 10 DPs each season, which works out to 40-50 for a full season (about 1/4 season last year, about 1/5 this season). This seems like a very high number (I looked at Rolen and his best season was 41, but he average in the low 20’s). I’m not sure how the defensive numbers credit DPs, but if he is participating in a few extra because he is essentially playing SS or 2B it could distort the numbers a bit.

Neil L.

12 years ago

“So, is it a mirage or could we be looking at one of the best defensive third basemen ever?” A very intersting question, Doug, in my opinion. I don’t think we can annoint Brett Lawrie as one of the best hot-corner defenders ever, just yet. However, there isn’t much doubt, barring injury, that he will top the position WAR list be the end of the season. But neither is it a complete mirage. He benefitted by being good enough at the plate to be an everyday player as soon as he was called up. Also, the Blue Jays pitchers, Romero,… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Neil L.

Neil, real good info on the GB rates of the Jays staff. I’d love to hear more about where exactly Lawrie is playing in this shift. Are you saying that he is actually between the 2B and the 1Bman or between the SS and 2Bman? Were the Jays employing this shift with as much frequency at the end of last year when Lawrie got his start? I think astute Jays fans are probably the ones to best ask these questions, so I’d love to hear more from possibly bjstatsgeek or any other Jays fans frequenting this site. I’m extremely intrigued… Read more »

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Lawrie plays in short right field (about midway between the RFer and the second baseman) and perhaps slightly closer to the foul line than the 2nd baseman. The SS plays up the middle (or even on the right side of 2nd base) and the second baseman is about where he’d be normally for a LH pull hitter. I’ve seen Lawrie snag a low liner in that position, and throw out a runner on a hot grounder through the infield. And, he tried to throw out a runner who had hit a little nubber that the catcher threw into right field… Read more »

Neil L.

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Thanks, Doug, I read bstar’s comment and was going to reply but was posting in another blog and you beat me to it.

It would be interesting to see how many assists Brett Lawrie has from his shifted position between 1st and second base.

I assume that any assists or putouts accumulated by Lawrie in short right field still look, on paper, as if they belong to a person playing third base because it is his defensive position in the lineup.

bluejaysstatsgeek

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Sorry, I’m late to the party. I think bstar’s question for me was implicitly answered in the difference between BIS and UZR. The shift was used last year, but it seems they are using it more this year.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Thanks for the info, guys. If you read the first link Ed listed below, it’s interesting that Lawrie, while getting credit for putouts in short right while the shift is on, is also penalized when someone drops a bunt down into his abandoned territory at third according to DRS. Of course, it seems to me that far too few bunts are being laid down on the shift; Brian McCann has already lost at least 10 hits this year as he’s just blasted away repeatedly into the heart of the right side of the infield. McCann is the new Mark Texeira.

Neil L.

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

But, bstar, it requires unselfishness and the setting-aside of ego, plus a trust in teammates, to tap one down the opposite way while the shif is on.

Besides it won’t make the evening television highlight reel of the mlb.com video gallery!

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Neil L.

Neil, I think the general consensus mindset has always been to go ahead and hit like you normally do in spite of the shift, but it seems here recently it’s been more effective than ever at getting hitters out. McCann, who used to punch balls the opposite way every now and then, has seemed to have become more stubborn than ever about pulling the ball every at-bat. It’s getting ridiculous.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Neil L.

Actually, I think McCann bunting up the 3B line for an easy hit would be a popular choice for the highlight reels. “Man Bites Dog” is always news, right?

BryanM

12 years ago

Reply to Neil L.

Has anyone here seen Brian McCann run? Are we sure that bunting is a good idea for him if the left fielder cheats in a bit?

Niall

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

I haven’t seen anyone else mention it, but because he’s so fast, I’ve seen him steal 3 or 4 double plays at least just by running over in front of the SS, Escobar, and making the DP that rightfully would have been Escobar’s play if there were any other 3B in the league over there.

Neil L.

12 years ago

Lawrie has two assists through three defensive innings tonight.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Neil L.

And he just saved a run on an ill-advised and offline throw from the catcher on a wild-pitch advancement (though I don’t think that’s going to show up anywhere in his defensive numbers).

12 years ago

According to this article, the defense numbers from Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) includes credit for runs saved by the shift. On the other hand, Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) doesn’t. Which might explain why Baseball Reference (which uses BIS) has Lawrie at 2.0 total WAR whereas Fangraphs (which uses UZR) has him at 1.2.

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2012/05/08/blue-jays-lawrie-lead-the-majors-in-saving-runs/

Comparison of the various WAR systems:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_comparison.shtml

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

That’s the exact info I think we were looking for, Ed, thanks. I was about to post something about how Lawrie is not viewed quite so highly by UZR as DRS but you beat me to it.

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Yeah, I just wish fangraphs would show the offense/defense breakdown the way B-Ref does. Would make for an easier comparison.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Ed, on the main player page at fangraphs, just scroll down to VALUE and it will give the offense/defense/baserunning etc. components of their WAR calculation for that player.

Neil L.

12 years ago

There are some similarities between Bryce Harper and Brett Lawrie in that they were both much-touted prospects, although Harper was brought to the majors earlier.

This is to find a reason to point out that Harper had a rough night at the plate, going 0-5 with 3 strikeouts and leaving 5 men on base. I didn’t realize the Nationals had him hitting fifth in their lineup until I looked at the box.

Ah, well, his batting average is 38 points higher than Albert’s and 50 points higher that Jose’s.

kds

12 years ago

DRS, the metric now used for the fielding part of brWAR has the AL total to +81 runs when it should add to zero. That is spread over 14 teams, and over 9 positions and more players per team. We don’t know if this is spread randomly or there is some sort of bias that gives certain players extra credit. There is strong independent evidence that the Jays have very good defense. (DER) But dividing that between individual players is the hard part. An important part of DRS (and UZR) is estimating the likelyhood that each ball in play would… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

The general talent evaluation reviews on Lawrie coming up was he an adequate defender, but ultimately might be moved to the OF. So now he’s the greatest fielder ever?

What I’ve seen of Lawrie says he’s a good defender, but I certainly never have thought once I’m seeing the heir apparent to Brooks Robinson. Of course I don’t completely trust my eyes on these things anymore than I completely trust defensive metrics. Perhaps noise in the machine probably driven by the Blue Jays’ shifts.

Neil L.

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

He just made an amazing athletic play on barehanding a safety squeeze to the plate to get an out …. and an assist at the plate.

He was playing deep on the play with runners on 1st and 3rd and one out. The assist looks the same on paper as throwing to first and allowing the run, but it was a good defensive play.

The next batter flew out to end the inning .

My point is, I am starting to drink the Kool-Aid. Some of the things Brett Lawrie does do not show up in the box score.

jariax

12 years ago

We’ve really only had one good defensive third baseman over the years (Scott Rolen) other than J-Mac’s occasional starts there. Lawrie is far superior. His first step is a big part of it. He is primed, wanting every ball to be hit to him, and he moves with great instincts. He is the exact opposite of flat-footed. His range is the best I’ve ever seen – on both sides. He routinely dives to either side to make plays nobody else comes close to. But after he dives, he is back on his feet in 0.3 seconds throwing a bullet to… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to jariax

Well, jariax, that’s high praise if you’re saying he makes Scott Rolen look pretty average. Have you ever seen Rolen make or attempt the play where he jumps straight up on a high chopper, catches the ball at the apex of his jump, and then fires to first on his way down or right as he hits the ground? I’ve only seen a handful of third basemen even attempt this play, and I’ve got to credit Rolen for inventing it. Has Lawrie ever attempted this?

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

I guess this is not quite the same play, but perhaps close to it.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20507639&c_id=mlb

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Thanks, Doug, but no this play involves a high chopper hit right to Rolen. Instead of waiting for it to come down, he leaps into the air, catches the ball at the highest point, then releases the throw to first on the way down. Unbelievable. The more I think about it, Ken Caminiti may be the only other third baseman I’ve seen attempt this play.

Neil L.

12 years ago

Reply to jariax

Jariax, see my post @4 about Lawrie’s quickness.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Neil L.

Neil, have you ever seen Lawrie attempt the Rolen jump throw play?

Neil L.

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Bstar, hey, haven’t directly replied to you in a while.

I’m not quite sure of the Rolen move you are referring to so I can’t say for sure if I’ve seen Brett Lawrie attempt it.

But I can endorse most of what jariax has said about Lawrie as a defender @29.

If Toronto got any kind of television exposure in your great country then the rest of you would get to see him play.

ESPN and FOX do not know the Blue Jays exist much less the Royals, Pirates or Twins. Only when Darvish is pitching but I digress …..

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Neil L.

Neil, I can’t find a Youtube video of this particular play but it’s one of the more amazing defensive plays I’ve ever seen.

Voomo Zanzibar

10 years ago

http://www.highheatstats.com/2014/12/josh-donaldson-the-curious-trade-of-a-unique-player/