With its win yesterday, Texas became just the 41st team since 1918 to start a season with 13 or more wins in its first 16 games. What might this hot start presage for the rest of the Rangers’ season?
I’ll take a look at that question after the jump.
So, here are the teams winning 13 of their first 16 games. Note that the stats and links to individual games are for the team wins ONLY.
Rk | Tm | Year | W | L | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | OAK | 1981 | 15 | 1 | Ind. Games | 574 | 504 | 131 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 73 | 57 | 81 | .260 | .338 | .403 | .741 |
2 | NYG | 1918 | 15 | 1 | Ind. Games | 591 | 522 | 168 | 31 | 11 | 3 | 90 | 34 | 42 | .322 | .372 | .441 | .813 |
3 | MIL | 1987 | 15 | 1 | Ind. Games | 604 | 528 | 163 | 36 | 1 | 24 | 102 | 57 | 100 | .309 | .380 | .517 | .897 |
4 | DET | 1984 | 15 | 1 | Ind. Games | 596 | 518 | 155 | 27 | 6 | 18 | 89 | 66 | 81 | .299 | .382 | .479 | .861 |
5 | SFG | 2003 | 14 | 2 | Ind. Games | 565 | 477 | 130 | 22 | 2 | 20 | 80 | 74 | 86 | .273 | .372 | .453 | .825 |
6 | CLE | 1966 | 14 | 2 | Ind. Games | 518 | 451 | 121 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 43 | 50 | 67 | .268 | .342 | .379 | .721 |
7 | BRO | 1955 | 14 | 2 | Ind. Games | 552 | 463 | 127 | 28 | 3 | 23 | 84 | 69 | 63 | .274 | .377 | .497 | .874 |
8 | TEX | 2012 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 527 | 473 | 149 | 24 | 2 | 24 | 84 | 41 | 80 | .315 | .371 | .526 | .898 |
9 | STL | 1931 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 516 | 467 | 138 | 34 | 11 | 3 | 70 | 34 | 31 | .296 | .347 | .435 | .782 |
10 | STL | 1941 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 541 | 478 | 150 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 74 | 44 | 40 | .314 | .374 | .462 | .836 |
11 | STL | 1982 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 536 | 464 | 145 | 27 | 6 | 10 | 76 | 57 | 78 | .313 | .388 | .461 | .849 |
12 | SFG | 1997 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 489 | 406 | 108 | 22 | 4 | 11 | 60 | 69 | 89 | .266 | .369 | .421 | .790 |
13 | SEA | 2002 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 538 | 466 | 156 | 34 | 2 | 14 | 94 | 51 | 76 | .335 | .398 | .506 | .904 |
14 | SDP | 1998 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 497 | 436 | 115 | 25 | 1 | 17 | 78 | 46 | 61 | .264 | .333 | .443 | .775 |
15 | PIT | 1937 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 534 | 474 | 130 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 63 | 51 | 46 | .274 | .347 | .386 | .733 |
16 | PIT | 1921 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 508 | 447 | 137 | 32 | 14 | 3 | 74 | 40 | 35 | .306 | .362 | .461 | .823 |
17 | PIT | 1992 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 498 | 423 | 112 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 70 | 62 | 56 | .265 | .361 | .402 | .763 |
18 | OAK | 1978 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 505 | 441 | 123 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 48 | 43 | 74 | .279 | .351 | .410 | .761 |
19 | NYY | 1949 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 492 | 425 | 116 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 64 | 60 | 43 | .273 | .366 | .412 | .777 |
20 | NYY | 1987 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 502 | 433 | 125 | 26 | 3 | 14 | 75 | 62 | 70 | .289 | .377 | .460 | .837 |
21 | NYY | 2003 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 535 | 461 | 144 | 33 | 0 | 30 | 93 | 59 | 76 | .312 | .396 | .579 | .975 |
22 | NYY | 1926 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 512 | 438 | 149 | 25 | 12 | 12 | 93 | 46 | 49 | .340 | .408 | .534 | .942 |
23 | NYM | 1986 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 523 | 455 | 136 | 29 | 3 | 15 | 79 | 52 | 75 | .299 | .368 | .475 | .842 |
24 | NYG | 1938 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 511 | 455 | 143 | 22 | 3 | 17 | 76 | 39 | 28 | .314 | .372 | .488 | .860 |
25 | NYG | 1922 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 553 | 473 | 171 | 31 | 9 | 11 | 97 | 58 | 36 | .362 | .434 | .535 | .968 |
26 | NYG | 1924 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 524 | 453 | 138 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 69 | 50 | 42 | .305 | .380 | .419 | .799 |
27 | MLN | 1957 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 522 | 463 | 135 | 23 | 6 | 20 | 73 | 42 | 57 | .292 | .354 | .497 | .850 |
28 | MIN | 2001 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 510 | 443 | 130 | 32 | 7 | 16 | 81 | 48 | 59 | .293 | .363 | .506 | .869 |
29 | LAD | 1977 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 530 | 451 | 134 | 28 | 4 | 23 | 91 | 62 | 72 | .297 | .379 | .530 | .909 |
30 | LAD | 1981 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 483 | 432 | 117 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 47 | 35 | 70 | .271 | .324 | .384 | .708 |
31 | KCR | 2003 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 511 | 445 | 133 | 33 | 1 | 17 | 71 | 48 | 71 | .299 | .375 | .492 | .868 |
32 | CLE | 1988 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 477 | 430 | 116 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 63 | 39 | 73 | .270 | .334 | .391 | .725 |
33 | CLE | 1942 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 501 | 451 | 134 | 28 | 9 | 7 | 68 | 41 | 27 | .297 | .360 | .446 | .805 |
34 | CIN | 1990 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 545 | 464 | 147 | 21 | 4 | 15 | 81 | 61 | 77 | .317 | .394 | .476 | .870 |
35 | BRO | 1942 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 532 | 466 | 131 | 29 | 0 | 8 | 82 | 56 | 44 | .281 | .359 | .395 | .754 |
36 | BOS | 1946 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 538 | 453 | 131 | 24 | 6 | 12 | 80 | 76 | 67 | .289 | .395 | .448 | .843 |
37 | BAL | 1966 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 528 | 460 | 120 | 23 | 2 | 23 | 69 | 51 | 81 | .261 | .337 | .470 | .806 |
38 | ATL | 1982 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 500 | 418 | 114 | 24 | 5 | 10 | 59 | 66 | 58 | .273 | .371 | .426 | .797 |
39 | ATL | 1997 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 527 | 464 | 156 | 23 | 7 | 11 | 84 | 47 | 74 | .336 | .395 | .487 | .882 |
40 | ATL | 1983 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 487 | 423 | 132 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 64 | 53 | 58 | .312 | .388 | .478 | .865 |
41 | ATL | 1994 | 13 | 3 | Ind. Games | 540 | 479 | 145 | 22 | 3 | 22 | 80 | 42 | 80 | .303 | .356 | .499 | .855 |
Of the 39 teams before this year (I’m omitting Atlanta in 1994 with no playoffs that year), 23 reached the playoffs, including 17 pennant winners and 11 WS winners. Prior to 1969 and the introduction of multiple playoff rounds, there are 17 teams on the list, including 9 pennant winners and 6 WS champs.
Let’s put all that in a table.
1918-1968 | 1969-2011 | 1918-2011 | ||
Seasons | 846 | 1168 | 2014 | Team seasons in period |
13+ Wins | 17 | 23 | 40 | Number of teams starting 13-3 or better |
13+ Win % | 2.01% | 1.97% | 1.99% | Percent of teams starting 13-3 or better |
Playoff Chance | 12.06% | 20.67% | 17.05% | Nominal Chance to Make Playoffs (based on no. of teams) |
Made Playoffs | 9 | 14 | 23 | Number of 13+ Win teams making playoffs |
Won Pennant | 9 | 8 | 17 | Number of 13+ Win teams winning pennant |
Won WS | 6 | 5 | 11 | Number of 13+ Win temas winning WS |
Playoff % | 52.9% | 63.6% | 57.5% | % of 13+ Win teams making playoffs |
Pennant % | 52.9% | 36.4% | 42.5% | % of 13+ Win teams winning pennant |
World Series % | 35.3% | 22.7% | 27.5% | % of 13+ Win teams winning WS |
Playoff Factor | 4.39 | 3.08 | 3.37 | Times More Likely to Make Playoffs for 13+ Win teams |
Pennant Factor | – | 14.29% | 14.29% | Improved Pennant Win Chance for 13+ Win teams |
WS Factor | 33.33% | 25.00% | 29.41% | Improved WS Win Chance for 13+ Win teams |
Clearly, starting 13-3 is not a fluke.
- Teams doing so are more than 3 times as likely to make the playoffs than the nominal chance to do so based on number of teams.
- Once in the playoffs, 13 win teams since 1969 are 14% more likely than their opponents to win the pennant.
- Having won a pennant, 13 win teams are 29% more likely than their opponents to win the WS.
Of the 17 teams who started 13-3 and didn’t make the playoffs
- 9 finished .550 or better (Brooklyn finished .675 in 1942), and only 4 did not finish above .500
- 12 finished 2nd or 3rd, and 12 finished 10 or fewer game out of first
- Two teams started 13-3 in a season and neither made the playoffs in 1942 (Cleveland and Brooklyn) and 1987 (Yankees and Milwaukee)
- Cleveland has started 13-3 or better 3 times (1942, 1966, 1988) and failed to finish above .500 each time
- Oakland started 13-3 in 1978, but then went 56-90 (.384) the rest of the way
All things considered, I’m liking the Rangers chances to become three-peat AL champions. And, perhaps the third time will be their World Series charm in 2012.