Texas is Scorching Hot (just in case you hadn’t noticed)

With its win yesterday, Texas became just the 41st team since 1918 to start a season with 13 or more wins in its first 16 games. What might this hot start presage for the rest of the Rangers’ season?

I’ll take a look at that question after the jump.

So, here are the teams winning 13 of their first 16 games. Note that the stats and links to individual games are for the team wins ONLY.

Rk Tm Year W L   PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
1 OAK 1981 15 1 Ind. Games 574 504 131 19 4 15 73 57 81 .260 .338 .403 .741
2 NYG 1918 15 1 Ind. Games 591 522 168 31 11 3 90 34 42 .322 .372 .441 .813
3 MIL 1987 15 1 Ind. Games 604 528 163 36 1 24 102 57 100 .309 .380 .517 .897
4 DET 1984 15 1 Ind. Games 596 518 155 27 6 18 89 66 81 .299 .382 .479 .861
5 SFG 2003 14 2 Ind. Games 565 477 130 22 2 20 80 74 86 .273 .372 .453 .825
6 CLE 1966 14 2 Ind. Games 518 451 121 13 5 9 43 50 67 .268 .342 .379 .721
7 BRO 1955 14 2 Ind. Games 552 463 127 28 3 23 84 69 63 .274 .377 .497 .874
8 TEX 2012 13 3 Ind. Games 527 473 149 24 2 24 84 41 80 .315 .371 .526 .898
9 STL 1931 13 3 Ind. Games 516 467 138 34 11 3 70 34 31 .296 .347 .435 .782
10 STL 1941 13 3 Ind. Games 541 478 150 22 5 13 74 44 40 .314 .374 .462 .836
11 STL 1982 13 3 Ind. Games 536 464 145 27 6 10 76 57 78 .313 .388 .461 .849
12 SFG 1997 13 3 Ind. Games 489 406 108 22 4 11 60 69 89 .266 .369 .421 .790
13 SEA 2002 13 3 Ind. Games 538 466 156 34 2 14 94 51 76 .335 .398 .506 .904
14 SDP 1998 13 3 Ind. Games 497 436 115 25 1 17 78 46 61 .264 .333 .443 .775
15 PIT 1937 13 3 Ind. Games 534 474 130 23 12 2 63 51 46 .274 .347 .386 .733
16 PIT 1921 13 3 Ind. Games 508 447 137 32 14 3 74 40 35 .306 .362 .461 .823
17 PIT 1992 13 3 Ind. Games 498 423 112 14 7 10 70 62 56 .265 .361 .402 .763
18 OAK 1978 13 3 Ind. Games 505 441 123 13 6 11 48 43 74 .279 .351 .410 .761
19 NYY 1949 13 3 Ind. Games 492 425 116 16 5 11 64 60 43 .273 .366 .412 .777
20 NYY 1987 13 3 Ind. Games 502 433 125 26 3 14 75 62 70 .289 .377 .460 .837
21 NYY 2003 13 3 Ind. Games 535 461 144 33 0 30 93 59 76 .312 .396 .579 .975
22 NYY 1926 13 3 Ind. Games 512 438 149 25 12 12 93 46 49 .340 .408 .534 .942
23 NYM 1986 13 3 Ind. Games 523 455 136 29 3 15 79 52 75 .299 .368 .475 .842
24 NYG 1938 13 3 Ind. Games 511 455 143 22 3 17 76 39 28 .314 .372 .488 .860
25 NYG 1922 13 3 Ind. Games 553 473 171 31 9 11 97 58 36 .362 .434 .535 .968
26 NYG 1924 13 3 Ind. Games 524 453 138 21 5 7 69 50 42 .305 .380 .419 .799
27 MLN 1957 13 3 Ind. Games 522 463 135 23 6 20 73 42 57 .292 .354 .497 .850
28 MIN 2001 13 3 Ind. Games 510 443 130 32 7 16 81 48 59 .293 .363 .506 .869
29 LAD 1977 13 3 Ind. Games 530 451 134 28 4 23 91 62 72 .297 .379 .530 .909
30 LAD 1981 13 3 Ind. Games 483 432 117 21 5 6 47 35 70 .271 .324 .384 .708
31 KCR 2003 13 3 Ind. Games 511 445 133 33 1 17 71 48 71 .299 .375 .492 .868
32 CLE 1988 13 3 Ind. Games 477 430 116 17 4 9 63 39 73 .270 .334 .391 .725
33 CLE 1942 13 3 Ind. Games 501 451 134 28 9 7 68 41 27 .297 .360 .446 .805
34 CIN 1990 13 3 Ind. Games 545 464 147 21 4 15 81 61 77 .317 .394 .476 .870
35 BRO 1942 13 3 Ind. Games 532 466 131 29 0 8 82 56 44 .281 .359 .395 .754
36 BOS 1946 13 3 Ind. Games 538 453 131 24 6 12 80 76 67 .289 .395 .448 .843
37 BAL 1966 13 3 Ind. Games 528 460 120 23 2 23 69 51 81 .261 .337 .470 .806
38 ATL 1982 13 3 Ind. Games 500 418 114 24 5 10 59 66 58 .273 .371 .426 .797
39 ATL 1997 13 3 Ind. Games 527 464 156 23 7 11 84 47 74 .336 .395 .487 .882
40 ATL 1983 13 3 Ind. Games 487 423 132 19 3 15 64 53 58 .312 .388 .478 .865
41 ATL 1994 13 3 Ind. Games 540 479 145 22 3 22 80 42 80 .303 .356 .499 .855
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/23/2012.

Of the 39 teams before this year (I’m omitting Atlanta in 1994 with no playoffs that year), 23 reached the playoffs, including 17 pennant winners and 11 WS winners. Prior to 1969 and the introduction of multiple playoff rounds, there are 17 teams on the list, including 9 pennant winners and 6 WS champs.

Let’s put all that in a table.

  1918-1968 1969-2011 1918-2011  
Seasons 846 1168 2014 Team seasons in period
13+ Wins 17 23 40 Number of teams starting 13-3 or better
13+ Win % 2.01% 1.97% 1.99% Percent of teams starting 13-3 or better
Playoff Chance 12.06% 20.67% 17.05% Nominal Chance to Make Playoffs (based on no. of teams)
Made Playoffs 9 14 23 Number of 13+ Win teams making playoffs
Won Pennant 9 8 17 Number of 13+ Win teams winning pennant
Won WS 6 5 11 Number of 13+ Win temas winning WS
Playoff % 52.9% 63.6% 57.5% % of 13+ Win teams making playoffs
Pennant % 52.9% 36.4% 42.5% % of 13+ Win teams winning pennant
World Series % 35.3% 22.7% 27.5% % of 13+ Win teams winning WS
Playoff Factor 4.39 3.08 3.37 Times More Likely to Make Playoffs for 13+ Win teams
Pennant Factor  – 14.29% 14.29% Improved Pennant Win Chance for 13+ Win teams
WS Factor 33.33% 25.00% 29.41% Improved WS Win Chance for 13+ Win teams

Clearly, starting 13-3 is not a fluke.

  • Teams doing so are more than 3 times as likely to make the playoffs than the nominal chance to do so based on number of teams.
  • Once in the playoffs, 13 win teams since 1969 are 14% more likely than their opponents to win the pennant.
  • Having won a pennant, 13 win teams are 29% more likely than their opponents to win the WS.

Of the 17 teams who started 13-3 and didn’t make the playoffs

  • 9 finished .550 or better (Brooklyn finished .675 in 1942), and only 4 did not finish above .500
  • 12 finished 2nd or 3rd, and 12 finished 10 or fewer game out of first
  • Two teams started 13-3 in a season and neither made the playoffs in 1942 (Cleveland and Brooklyn) and 1987 (Yankees and Milwaukee)
  • Cleveland has started 13-3 or better 3 times (1942, 1966, 1988) and failed to finish above .500 each time
  • Oakland started 13-3 in 1978, but then went 56-90 (.384) the rest of the way

All things considered, I’m liking the Rangers chances to become three-peat AL champions. And, perhaps the third time will be their World Series charm in 2012.

 

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Ted B
Ted B
12 years ago

Suppose they lose the world series again, how many teams have lost three starit world series, other than the 1911-1913 NYG and 1907-1909 DET?

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  Ted B

Looks like it’s time for a new team to join that list. It’s been just about 100 years.

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Ted B

Not many teams have lost two consecutive World Series either. The Rangers are only the eighth team to do this. Here’s the others:

1991-92 Atlanta Braves
1977-78 LA Dodgers
1963-64 NY Yankees
1952-53 Brooklyn Dodgers
1936-37 NY Giants
1923-24 NY Giants
1921-22 NY Yankees

Oddly, 4 of these other 7 lost to the same team in consecutive years:

77-78 Dodgers-lost to NY Yankees
52-53 Dodgers-lost to NY Yankees
36-37 Giants-lost to NY Yankees
21-22 Yankees-lost to NY Giants

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

I suppose if the Rangers want to draw encouragement after losing their first two World Series appearances, they are in the same territory as the New York Yankees who also lost their first two appearances in 1921-22, before winning on their third try in ’23, their first of 27 world championships and forty pennants over an approximately 90 year period.

My guess is the Rangers will not be doing as well, and indeed will have a difficult getting back for a third straight year. It’s a different game.

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

The Brooklyn Dodgers and New York Yankees contested 4 of the 5 World Series between 1952-56, with only the ’54 NY Giants-Cleveland series being the exception. NYY would win 3 of the 4 Yanks-Dodgers contests, but 3 of the 4 went to a deciding seventh game.

Jameson
Jameson
12 years ago

Interesting post, Doug. Any chance you could break it down to 1918-1968, 1969-1993, 1995-2011? I would like to see the difference with the added playoff spots, although I suppose you could try accounting for the difference with each expansion and there’s probably a limit to how far you want to take this.

birtelcom
birtelcom
12 years ago

I’m curious (1) how many games over .500 these teams finished, collectively, when you look at their full season performances, and (2) whether that shows these teams, collectively, played much better than .500 the rest of the way after their hot first 16 games.

birtelcom
Editor
12 years ago

If I’ve run the binomial distribution function in Excel correctly, the chances of a coin toss coming up heads 13 or more times out of 16 is 1.0635%. With 2,044 team seasons over the period 1918-2012, that probability would suggest that even if all teams had been exactly even in talent every season, there would still have been about 22 cases in which a team started the season with 13 or more wins in its first 16 games.