Through 20 games, Jose Bautista is not reminding anyone of the player who terrorized AL pitchers the past two seasons. I was wondering whether any other players coming off a season like Bautista’s had had such a slow start the following year. And, if they did, was that slow start a harbinger of a really down year?
Let’s find out.
Here’s the list of players with a season like Bautista’s in 2011 – 502 PA, .300 BA, .600 SLG, 125 BB, and an OPS+ of 200 or less.
Rk | Player | Year | BB | PA | Age | Tm | HR | RBI | SO | Pos | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jose Bautista | 2011 | .302 | .608 | 132 | 181 | 655 | 30 | TOR | 43 | 103 | 111 | .447 | 1.056 | *95/D |
2 | Todd Helton | 2004 | .347 | .620 | 127 | 165 | 683 | 30 | COL | 32 | 96 | 72 | .469 | 1.088 | *3 |
3 | Jason Giambi | 2001 | .342 | .660 | 129 | 198 | 671 | 30 | OAK | 38 | 120 | 83 | .477 | 1.137 | *3D |
4 | Jason Giambi | 2000 | .333 | .647 | 137 | 187 | 664 | 29 | OAK | 43 | 137 | 96 | .476 | 1.123 | *3D |
5 | Chipper Jones | 1999 | .319 | .633 | 126 | 168 | 701 | 27 | ATL | 45 | 110 | 94 | .441 | 1.074 | *5/6 |
6 | Barry Bonds | 1998 | .303 | .609 | 130 | 178 | 697 | 33 | SFG | 37 | 122 | 92 | .438 | 1.047 | *7 |
7 | Gary Sheffield | 1996 | .314 | .624 | 142 | 189 | 677 | 27 | FLA | 42 | 120 | 66 | .465 | 1.090 | *9 |
8 | Barry Bonds | 1996 | .308 | .615 | 151 | 188 | 675 | 31 | SFG | 42 | 129 | 76 | .461 | 1.076 | *7/8 |
9 | Frank Thomas | 1995 | .308 | .606 | 136 | 179 | 647 | 27 | CHW | 40 | 111 | 74 | .454 | 1.061 | *3D |
10 | Ralph Kiner | 1951 | .309 | .627 | 137 | 185 | 670 | 28 | PIT | 42 | 109 | 57 | .452 | 1.079 | *73 |
11 | Ted Williams | 1949 | .343 | .650 | 162 | 191 | 730 | 30 | BOS | 43 | 159 | 48 | .490 | 1.141 | *7 |
12 | Ted Williams | 1948 | .369 | .615 | 126 | 189 | 638 | 29 | BOS | 25 | 127 | 41 | .497 | 1.112 | *7 |
13 | Lou Gehrig | 1937 | .351 | .643 | 127 | 176 | 700 | 34 | NYY | 37 | 159 | 49 | .473 | 1.116 | *3 |
14 | Lou Gehrig | 1936 | .354 | .696 | 130 | 190 | 719 | 33 | NYY | 49 | 152 | 46 | .478 | 1.174 | *3 |
And, here’s how these players fared in their teams’ first 20 games of the following season.
Rk | Year | Player | Â | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SH | SF | IBB | HBP | GDP | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2012 | Jose Bautista | Ind. Games | 91 | 71 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 11 | .183 | .341 | .324 | .665 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
2 | 2005 | Todd Helton | Ind. Games | 88 | 72 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 6 | .264 | .398 | .375 | .773 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
3 | 2002 | Jason Giambi | Ind. Games | 89 | 76 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 21 | .263 | .371 | .461 | .831 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
4 | 2001 | Jason Giambi | Ind. Games | 88 | 66 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 20 | 11 | .409 | .557 | .788 | 1.345 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
5 | 2000 | Chipper Jones | Ind. Games | 84 | 75 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 8 | 5 | .293 | .357 | .507 | .864 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
6 | 1999 | Barry Bonds | Ind. Games | 52 | 41 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 4 | .366 | .500 | .805 | 1.305 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
7 | 1997 | Gary Sheffield | Ind. Games | 86 | 59 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 12 | .254 | .477 | .475 | .951 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
8 | 1997 | Barry Bonds | Ind. Games | 84 | 57 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 6 | .246 | .464 | .421 | .885 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
9 | 1996 | Frank Thomas | Ind. Games | 97 | 79 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 16 | 11 | .380 | .474 | .722 | 1.196 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
10 | 1952 | Ralph Kiner | Ind. Games | 85 | 68 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 10 | .250 | .400 | .397 | .797 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
11 | 1950 | Ted Williams | Ind. Games | 62 | 48 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 14 | 3 | .354 | .500 | .833 | 1.333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
12 | 1949 | Ted Williams | Ind. Games | 97 | 76 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 10 | .316 | .464 | .618 | 1.082 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
13 | 1938 | Lou Gehrig | Ind. Games | 87 | 68 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 11 | .221 | .391 | .412 | .803 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Â |
14 | 1937 | Lou Gehrig | Ind. Games | 89 | 80 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 9 | .263 | .337 | .400 | .737 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Â |
So, there’s a mix of starts here, but Bautista’s certainly looks to be the worst. The colors are rough indicators of cold (blue), warm (orange) and hot (red) starts.
For full year totals for that following season, here’s what we have.
Rk | Player | Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | Pos | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Todd Helton | 2005 | 144 | 31 | COL | 144 | 626 | 509 | 92 | 163 | 45 | 2 | 20 | 79 | 106 | 80 | .320 | .445 | .534 | .979 | *3 |
3 | Jason Giambi | 2002 | 172 | 31 | NYY | 155 | 689 | 560 | 120 | 176 | 34 | 1 | 41 | 122 | 109 | 112 | .314 | .435 | .598 | 1.034 | *3D |
4 | Jason Giambi | 2001 | 198 | 30 | OAK | 154 | 671 | 520 | 109 | 178 | 47 | 2 | 38 | 120 | 129 | 83 | .342 | .477 | .660 | 1.137 | *3D |
5 | Chipper Jones | 2000 | 141 | 28 | ATL | 156 | 686 | 579 | 118 | 180 | 38 | 1 | 36 | 111 | 95 | 64 | .311 | .404 | .566 | .970 | *5/6 |
6 | Barry Bonds | 1999 | 155 | 34 | SFG | 102 | 434 | 355 | 91 | 93 | 20 | 2 | 34 | 83 | 73 | 62 | .262 | .389 | .617 | 1.006 | *7/D |
7 | Gary Sheffield | 1997 | 134 | 28 | FLA | 135 | 582 | 444 | 86 | 111 | 22 | 1 | 21 | 71 | 121 | 79 | .250 | .424 | .446 | .870 | *9/D |
8 | Barry Bonds | 1997 | 170 | 32 | SFG | 159 | 690 | 532 | 123 | 155 | 26 | 5 | 40 | 101 | 145 | 87 | .291 | .446 | .585 | 1.031 | *7 |
9 | Frank Thomas | 1996 | 178 | 28 | CHW | 141 | 649 | 527 | 110 | 184 | 26 | 0 | 40 | 134 | 109 | 70 | .349 | .459 | .626 | 1.085 | *3 |
10 | Ralph Kiner | 1952 | 141 | 29 | PIT | 149 | 633 | 516 | 90 | 126 | 17 | 2 | 37 | 87 | 110 | 77 | .244 | .384 | .500 | .884 | *7 |
11 | Ted Williams | 1950 | 167 | 31 | BOS | 89 | 416 | 334 | 82 | 106 | 24 | 1 | 28 | 97 | 82 | 21 | .317 | .452 | .647 | 1.099 | *7 |
12 | Ted Williams | 1949 | 191 | 30 | BOS | 155 | 730 | 566 | 150 | 194 | 39 | 3 | 43 | 159 | 162 | 48 | .343 | .490 | .650 | 1.141 | *7 |
13 | Lou Gehrig | 1938 | 132 | 35 | NYY | 157 | 689 | 576 | 115 | 170 | 32 | 6 | 29 | 114 | 107 | 75 | .295 | .410 | .523 | .932 | *3 |
14 | Lou Gehrig | 1937 | 176 | 34 | NYY | 157 | 700 | 569 | 138 | 200 | 37 | 9 | 37 | 159 | 127 | 49 | .351 | .473 | .643 | 1.116 | *3 |
So, no really bad seasons here. However, among those players with the coldest starts, only Gehrig in 1937 turned in a season over 144 OPS+. Conversely, among players with warm or hot starts, only Chipper Jones (2000) and Gary Sheffield (1997) turned in a season under 144 OPS+.
Among players with a hot start, all had outstanding seasons, particularly Giambi (2001) and Williams (1949) with league-leading totals in multiple offensive categories. That Williams season is the only time a player has had 150 or more runs, walks and RBIs. Bonds (1999) and Williams (1950) in this group were both slowed by injury but still turned in OPS+ scores higher than all of the players with cold starts.Â
Based on past experience, then, it would seem Bautista will probably have a good season, though probably not as dominating as his past two. Differing opinions, anyone?