Happy birthday Miguel Cabrera: Hall of Famer & career projections

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Miguel Cabrera turns 29 years old today.

It’s hard to believe that he’s so young, given that he’s already had 8 seasons where he’s qualified for the batting title with an OPS+ of at least 129.

Check out who has the most such seasons through their Age 28 season:

Rk		Yrs	From	To	Age
1	Mel Ott	10	1928	1937	19-28	Ind. Seasons
2	Ty Cobb	10	1906	1915	19-28	Ind. Seasons
3	Mickey Mantle	9	1952	1960	20-28	Ind. Seasons
4	Jimmie Foxx	9	1928	1936	20-28	Ind. Seasons
5	Rogers Hornsby	9	1916	1924	20-28	Ind. Seasons
6	Miguel Cabrera	8	2004	2011	21-28	Ind. Seasons
7	Albert Pujols	8	2001	2008	21-28	Ind. Seasons
8	Alex Rodriguez	8	1996	2004	20-28	Ind. Seasons
9	Ken Griffey	8	1990	1998	20-28	Ind. Seasons
10	Frank Robinson	8	1956	1964	20-28	Ind. Seasons
11	Hank Aaron	8	1955	1962	21-28	Ind. Seasons
12	Tris Speaker	8	1909	1916	21-28	Ind. Seasons

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/18/2012.

These guys all started in the majors at a young age and not a single one of them flamed out early. In fact, as you probably noticed, every player on that list who is eligible for the Hall of Fame is in the Hall of Fame, and it would seem that Griffey, Pujols, and A-Rod are pretty much locks already.

I have no doubt that if we look at raw numbers, Cabrera will rank toward the top in homers and RBI thanks to the era in which he has played. It would be fun, though, to project how Cabrera will end up.

Here are the players to post an OPS+ of at least 140 in a minimum of 5000 PAs through their Age 28 season:

Rk		OPS+	PA	From	To	Age
1	Arky Vaughan	141	5744	1932	1940	20-28
2	Tris Speaker	168	5198	1907	1916	19-28
3	Alex Rodriguez	143	6385	1994	2004	18-28
4	Frank Robinson	149	5734	1956	1964	20-28
5	Albert Pujols	170	5382	2001	2008	21-28
6	Mel Ott	155	6646	1926	1937	17-28
7	Eddie Murray	143	5160	1977	1984	21-28
8	Joe Medwick	142	5323	1932	1940	20-28
9	Eddie Mathews	153	5809	1952	1960	20-28
10	Mickey Mantle	171	6051	1951	1960	19-28
11	Sherry Magee	140	5698	1904	1913	19-28
12	Rogers Hornsby	180	5410	1915	1924	19-28
13	Ken Griffey	150	5982	1989	1998	19-28
14	Jimmie Foxx	172	5934	1925	1936	17-28
15	Ty Cobb	183	5954	1905	1915	18-28
16	Miguel Cabrera	149	5777	2003	2011	20-28
17	Hank Aaron	155	5868	1954	1962	20-28

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/18/2012.

Nice company. Among the players on that list who are now retired, here’s what they did from their Age 29 season onward:

Rk		OPS+	From	To	Age	G	PA
1	Arky Vaughan	119	1941	1948	29-36	512	1978
2	Tris Speaker	150	1917	1928	29-40	1575	6789
3	Frank Robinson	158	1965	1976	29-40	1462	6008
4	Mel Ott	154	1938	1947	29-38	1141	4702
5	Eddie Murray	119	1985	1997	29-41	1820	7657
6	Joe Medwick	118	1941	1948	29-36	757	2820
7	Eddie Mathews	129	1961	1968	29-36	1061	4291
8	Mickey Mantle	172	1961	1968	29-36	1002	3856
9	Sherry Magee	128	1914	1919	29-34	712	2847
10	Rogers Hornsby	169	1925	1937	29-41	997	4071
11	Ken Griffey	120	1999	2010	29-40	1296	5322
12	Jimmie Foxx	148	1937	1945	29-37	906	3740
13	Ty Cobb	156	1916	1928	29-41	1637	7123
14	Hank Aaron	155	1963	1976	29-42	1948	8073

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/18/2012.

First of all, WTF Hank Aaron. All he did after that great start was post a 155 OPS+ over 8,000 more plate appearances. Holy cow.

The weighted average performance of this group is an OPS+ of 144 over 4,948 additional plate appearances from their Age 29 season onward.

Miguel Cabrera had a 144 OPS+ in 2009, a season that produced 34 HR, 103 RBI, and 34 2B in 685 PAs.

Through his Age 28 season, his totals were 277 HR, 984 RBI, and 346 2B.

Using the above data to project his Age 29 onward, he’d have an additional 245 HR, 744 RBI, and 245 doubles.

That would project Cabrera’s final career totals to 522 HR, 1728 RBI, and 591 doubles. That would put him 18th career in homers, 22nd in RBI, and 16th in doubles. That seems about right.

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Timmy Pea

12 years ago

You are leaving one key factor out of your career calculations for Cabrera and that is his off the field problems. I always hope every player does well, breaks records, and hits milestones. I hope Cabrera does as well. I enjoy drinking quite a bit myself and I know from experience that it causes me to run out of cat food once in a while, or forget to file my income tax returns.

Artie Z

12 years ago

Reply to Timmy Pea

There are a few guys on the list who had off the field “issues”, be they alcohol related or otherwise – Foxx, Mantle, and Cobb are the ones that jump out and from what I’ve read Hornsby was not the greatest guy in the world. Looking at Hornsby, Mantle, and Foxx they all had around 4000 more PAs afterwards. I think that might be the best estimate for Cabrera if we are trying to compare personality traits at this level (all of these guys are outliers in terms of baseball talent). Still, another 4000 PAs puts him around 450 HRs.

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Reply to Artie Z

The most tragic case of off the field problems might be Hack Wilson. He was a damn good player but was a heavy drinker at an early age. http://hack191.com/obit.html

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Timmy Pea

Hack Wilson would be far from the only MLB great who drank a lot. Chronologically, there’s King Kelly, Ed Delahanty, Pete Alexander, Rabbit Maranville, Ed Delahanty, Jimmy Foxx, Paul Waner, Mickey Mantle, and Dennis Eckersley for starters. Wilson, Foxx, and Mantle seem to be the players whose career was shortened the most by drinking.

And it’s not limited to players – HOF manager Joe McCarthy was infamous for his periodic benders. There is vastly less tolerance for this nowadays, though. In the 19th century, it would probably be easier to list the players who _didn’t_ drink at all.

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

In the 19th century, it would probably be easier to list the players who _didn’t_ drink at all. Ha! That’s awesome and why I should have lived in the 19th century!

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Eckersly got a handle on his drinking during his career, and loot at what he accomplished after.

vivaeljason

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

To be fair, Mantle’s problems also involved being hurt often — which is really what shortened his career. I’m sure drinking did him no favors, but Mantle was never really healthy for a full season.

deal

12 years ago

Agree with Timmy Pea above – His off the field issues don’t appear to be isolated incidence.

My fear for Miguel Cabrera is that his post career winds up like Lenny Dykstra.

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to deal

I think Cabrera has done a reasonable job of recovering from those issues–although I agree he’s a higher risk than a player whose never had the problems.

I think the bigger concern for him is his weight—heavy players don’t often play well into their late 30s.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

i wonder if he’s going to age a little like Manny has although he’s taller. Still retained his hitting ability, but to a diminishing degree and with more injuries.

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Great point about heavy players, think Cecil Fielder, Greg Luzinski, Bob Hamlin, or Steve Balboni. Compared to those guys though, Cabrera is in good shape. I feel bad about bringing up a guys off the field problems on his birthday, but drinking too much can cause trouble. Look at Josh Hamilton. His claim to fame might end up being the best player talent wise not to end up in the HoF because he missed so much time and got such a late start. Not to mention he might not have such a good handle on things because his problem was… Read more »

Big Daddy V

12 years ago

Reply to Timmy Pea

Look at Cabrera and Prince Fielder standing next to each other, and you’ll forget about Cabrera’s weight in a second. Prince is just massive (although he moves very well for his size).

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Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Big Daddy V

True. Cabrera next to Prince looks like those photos of Prince next to Cecil from when Cecil played for the Tigers.

12 years ago

I know Cabrera’s playing 3rd this year…but WOW is the AL stacked at 1st base. Of course, they “stole” quite few of them from the NL – Gonzalez, Pujols, Fielder/Cabrera.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

I keep waiting for the baseball media to officially recognize that Miggy is the best hitter in the game today. Perhaps not the best offensive player, and definitely not the best all-around player, but to me, unquestionably the best hitter.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Seasonal averages through age 28 (9 seasons for each player):

Aaron – 150 G, .320/.373/.571/.943, 155 OPS+, 33 HRs, 110 RBI
Miggy – 150 G, .317/.395/.555/.950, 149 OPS+, 31 HRs, 109 RBI

As a hitter, Cabrera is just a shade below Henry at the same age. I don’t expect him to age as well as Aaron, but that’s still a hell of a ballpark.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Never would have guessed they would be that close.

What’s interesting is at age 28, Aaron then and Cabrera now are (apparently) heading into a low offense era. Similar context should make assessment of Cabrera’s continued tracking to Aaron more relevant.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

I think the shift to 3B is a great thing for Miggy’s future. He was reported to have lost about 20 lbs. from last year; he certainly looks less jowly in that photo above.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Odd that 2008 was his worst year (low in ops+), yet that was the only year that he led his league in homers and total bases.

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

In 2008, Cabrera’s BB% and BABIP were both down dramatically from his career standards, even as his HR rate, his K rate, his extra-base hit rate all stayed at his normal level. Not sure if that reflected some change on his part, but might have just been a run of luck.

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Cabrera, Fielder and Alex Avila all were over 5 WAR last season. They are all off to solid starts this season and if all three repeat at the 5+ WAR level in 2012, they would be only the third catcher/first basemen/third basemen trio for a single team to rack up 5 or more WAR each. Previously: the 1936 Yankees with Dickey, Gehrig and Red Rolfe, and the 1997 Mets with Todd Hundley, John Olerud and Edgardo Alfonzo.

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Miguel’s personal habits and body shape certainly haven’t hurt his ability to play every day so far. The only major leaguer with more games played from and including 2004 through now is Ichiro, with his slightly different body shape.

Most Games Played, 2004-2012:
Ichiro Suzuki 1,288
Miguel Cabrera 1,275
Michael Young 1,254
Bobby Abreu 1,243
Albert Pujols 1,241

Note that for Ichiro and Abreu these totals include not a single game played before the age of 30.

John B

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

And Prince Fielder has played the most games since 2006.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

There have been 152 players (including active players) since 1901 to play 1300 or more games from age 21-30. Of those only 20 played 1300 games after age 30.

Scanning down the list, the first “ample-bodied” player who jumps off the page is #70, George Scott, with 696 games after age 30. Jimmie Foxx is at #82 with 607 games, Boog Powell is #96, 503 games and Greg Luzinski #109, 428 games.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Cabrera on his birthday, before today (8 games): 14 for 31 (.452 BA, .500 OBP), 10 runs, 6 RBI, 5 doubles, 1 HR (.710 SLG).

He has a 7-year birthday hitting streak.

bstar

12 years ago

I’m absolutely thrilled to see Cabrera get his due on this site. What’s really encouraging about Miggy is that he seems to be getting better, posting the two best OPS+ numbers of his career the last two years. This is mainly due to plate discipline: since his career-low BB% in 2008, Cabrera has increased his walk total every year since, boosting his WAR total to 7+ the last two years.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

News of the improbable: 1st inning in Seattle tonight, Chone Figgins hit his first HR since Opening Day of last year. Moments later, Ichiro hit his first HR of the year.

Figgins (0.6%) and Ichiro (1.2%) are in the bottom 15 in active HR%, out of 164 active hitters with at least 3,000 PAs.

Using their career rates, the odds of Figgins and Ichiro both homering in a given AB is about 1 in 14,000. Somehow, it feels more like one in a million….

Fireworks

12 years ago

I think Dykstra is a horrible comp for anyone. “Nails” went off the deep end somehow. Heavy drinking or Puckett-esque more suits a poor post-career.